2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]

[loki]

On the value of the Mavs' 2022 first round pick...

It's pretty rare that even a high FRP contributes in a meaningful way during his first year or two. Josh Green, whom we're starting to warm up to, is just barely starting to crack the rotation.  We're pleased with the trajectory, but it looks like year 3 will be when he provides positive value for his contract.  This learning curve is even more pronounced for one-and-done players.

...and of course, if you're drafting in the 20's, it's likely that your player will be out of the league in 5 years.

Based on Luka's development, the ages of players currently on the roster, and their position as middle-of-the pack contenders, I find it difficult to believe that they will take a long-term view on the 2022 FRP.

Much more likely it's traded for someone who can contribute to winning now.

Trading for an established player is also probably better in terms of trying to assemble a future trade package to land a star. It gives you salary matching ability and you don't have to worry about your draft pick's value dropping the moment he steps on the floor. 

I'd love to see something like Powell + 1st for Holmes for example.