2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]

[DanSchwartzgan]

RE: Stein's Report

Stein saying the Mavs are trying to get in on MT or JC is SUPER interesting to me. 

My gut says that means they have a KP trade lined up IF they can secure another big through another trade. I obviously could be dead wrong there and they could be trying to pair one of those guys WITH KP. 

@"DanSchwartzgan" can you remind me again on what you have seen with two big lineups this season? My gut says they suck, but didn't you highlight some stretches where they were quite successful?

If MT and JC were the same archetype, I might agree that there are obvious KP implications.  But, they are very different.  Instead, it looks to me like they are looking for an upgrade at the big spot next to KP.  MT would take you one direction (dramatically improved rim protection and more force than Powell provides).  JC would take you another direction.  Both make you younger.

Interesting timing on your question since DP/Maxi were almost a platoon against Memphis.  When they were out, Dallas mostly played Chriss as a single big with either DFS or Luka at PF.  Memphis didn't overlap Adams and JJJ, so Chriss as the single big was largely against lineups with Adams.  It worked as Maxi +19, Powell +18 and Chriss +9 were all highly effective.  It was basically an 8 man rotation with Bullock, THJ and Chriss off the bench alongside one of the guards and someone from among Green Dorian, Powell or Maxi.

As to your question...

The Powell/KP two man is +1.8 for the full season.  Our opinion is largely colored by the early part of the season.  11 games in the Powell/KP combo was -17.9.  There was pretty steady improvement the rest of November (11/11-11/30).  The combo for the full season through 11/30 was "up" to -10.4.  That improvement though was simply sucking less.  They were -9.5 during the stretch from 11/11-11/30.

From 11/11 until now they are +8.3 in 20 games.  The big turn happened on 12/1 when Hardaway left the starting lineup.  Powell and KP together are +15.9 since then.  The O-Rating is 116.8 and the D-Rating is 100.9...both fantastic.  I think the team figured this out as we've only seen THJ/KP/DP together in 2 of the 12 games all three were available since 12/1 and only for 13 minutes. 

What we all need to see is what do Powell/KP and Luka look like.  That trio only has 4 games together for a total of 49 minutes since 12/1 (they are +17.3 in that small sample).  DFS has played the most minutes with Powell and KP since 12/1 and those minutes are +16.5.  Only about 1/3 of the minutes KP and DFS have played since 12/1 have been without Powell.  NBA.com doesn't give you the single data point you want, but if the trio is +16.5, and the Powell/KP pairing is +15.9 and the KP/DFS pairing is +16.9 then the KP/DFS minutes without Powell are going to be a little bit better.  32 of those minutes are lineups with Maxi at +6.8.  So, we are getting down to a pretty small sample of KP/DFS and no big since 12/1, but I'd guess it is in the +20 area.  Don't you have software that does this better than NBA.com?

Interestingly, KP and Maxi are negative for the full season.  They are also negative (-0.7) since 12/1.  Maxi is the only non-hardship player with a negative rating next to KP since 12/1.  The best pairings with KP are Bullock, DFS and Powell.  There is a dropoff to another grouping that includes S. Brown, Green and Luka.  Brunson and THJ are the worst pairings with KP since 12/1 in the +3 range.   

One of the more interesting things about the resurgence of KP is it came without any appreciable change in his stats.  KP lineups were -18.3 in October, -2.6 in November and +11.9 in December.  Between November and December these stats actually declined:  FG%, 3%, FT%, TS% Minutes played (31.8-30.3), and Rebounds (8.4-8.1).  His assists went up from 2.3-2.8.  Scoring went from 21.5-21.7 and Usage went from 27.9-31.1.  FT attempts went up about 1.5 per game.  It is really hard to find where KP got appreciably better from November to December, yet the team suddenly started killing it when Hardaway went to the bench.  Where the team improvement seems to have come from is the D-Rating went from 109 to 106 when KP was in the game (but there was a corresponding drop in O-Rating from 120-117).  

Obviously, the other big question is who plays well with Luka.  Sticking with 12/1 as the start date, Bullock is +26.5.  In the cameo department, Sterling, Chriss and Moses all have really nice 20-plus net numbers in limited minutes.  Back to the regulars, Luka is in the 10+ area with THJ, Green and KP since 12/1.  It drops down to +4.3 with Powell, +2.8 with Maxi, +0.5 with DFS and -3.1 with Brunson.  What?  Surely it looks better since January 1st where we've won six of seven games?  Nope.  Brunson/Luka are -5.6 since 1/1.  Luka and DFS are -9.5.  As we think through trade scenarios, who plays well with who probably matters (small sample size warning).  If so, Bullock isn't going anywhere.  He's killing it alongside either KP or Luka.  Hardaway/KP lineups are bad, but Hardaway/Luka lineups are good.  Other side of the coin, DFS with KP is fantastic.  DFS with Luka...not so much.  Maxi and Brunson aren't exactly lighting it up next to either KP or Luka....rut row rastro.

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Sounds like KP could emerge from protocols today which means something must be done with Chriss. 

Anyone know what's up with WCS "personal reasons"?

More players became trade eligible today (1/15).  Maybe we see some action?  If you have to do it, doing it in the midst of games against ORL and OKC makes some sense.