2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]

[mvossman]

Interesting Locked On pod this week asks "Is Brunson playing too well right now?" ... He's averaging 21/5/7 in his starts. And he's an unrestricted FA. The guys think certain teams will target Brunson as their no 1 option and throw big money at him to start, even if they have to clear cap space to do so. 

Of course, if Brunson can be this good, why not sign him to whatever number it takes and make him Luka's long term backcourt partner?

Offensively, it make a lot of sense. Brunson is clearly the second best guard on this team and he may be the second best player at any position. He can play off the ball as a secondary playmaker and run the team when Luka sits. He can score, get in the lane and although he's a average 3pt shooter, you can't go under screens. He keeps defenses honest. 

But the model breaks down on defense. Brunson is a poor defender according to the eye test and most advanced metrics. He'll take a charge but he's certainly not the disruptive on-ball bulldog this team needs next to Luka. At-best Brunson can only guard one position.

So what do we think? Can Brunson be better defensively or is his size and relative lack of athleticism always going to make him a target for opposing offenses? Can a Brunson + Luka backcourt win a title? Can those two be surrounded by enough defensive talent?

Or do the Mavs look to deal Brunson at the TDL while his stock is high? What teams would be interested? What can the Mavs get back for a 25 year old 21/5/7 starting point guard (plus other assets)? 

For reference: 

Jalen Brunson: PG; 25; Slasher; 21/5/7; LEBRON +0.81; EPM +0.7
Kristaps Porzingis: C; 26; Versatile Big; 20/8/2; LEBRON +3.34; EPM +2.9
Reggie Bullock: SG; 30; Movement Shooter; 6/3/1; LEBRON -2.24; EPM -3.8
Jerami Grant: PF; 27; Shot Creator; 20/5/3; LEBRON -0.80; EPM +0.7
Brandon Ingram: SF; 24; Shot Creator; 22/6/5; LEBRON -0.70; EPM +0.9
Pascal Siakam: PF; 27; Shot Creator; 19/8/4; LEBRON +0.86; EPM +0.8
Marcus Smart: PG; 27; Primary Ball Handler; 11/4/6; LEBRON +0.74; EPM +1.5
Christian Wood: C; 26; Stretch Big; 17/11/2; LEBRON +0.34; EPM +0.7
Montrezl Harrell: C; 27; Post Scorer; 15/7/2; LEBRON +1.35; EPM +1.9
Miles Turner: C; 25; Stretch Big; 14/7/1; LEBRON +3.65; EPM +3.3
Caris Levert: SG; 27; Secondary Ball Handler; 17/3/4; LEBRON +0.73; EPM +0.6
De'Aaron Fox: PG; 24; Slasher; 21/4/5; LEBRON -1.19; EPM -0.8
Harrison Barnes: PF; 29; Stationary Shooter; 17/4/3 LEBRON -0.23; EPM +0.6

I don't see the Luka/Brunson tandem being good enough defensively to win a title.  Maybe if you matched them with an elite rim protecting center (not KP) and a couple of 3&D wings you could make it work.  It would take a complete roster overhaul to make that work.  I'm not saying this roster doesn't need an overhaul, but I don't think it makes sense to center it around making Luka/Brunson work.  

There is also no guarantee that Brunson wants to be here (especially as 6th man) or that somebody wont give him crazy money that does not make sense to match.  Given he is probably our most valuable asset (low bar) It probably makes sense to trade him at TDL.  I'm hoping for getting our 23 pick back, as Nicks are biggest suitors and that pick gives us way more flexibility.