2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]

[Scott41theMavs]

The Mavs are lumped in with 20 something teams who have to have a bidding war over the leftover average players because the other teams got the FA Stars...we need more positive assets and not waste any draft picks that we are close to being able to use them again and they have more value to get that 3rd great player we desperately need...

How are we going to get the 2nd one? 

I'll hang up and listen.

[KillerLeft]

How are we going to get the 2nd one? 

I'll hang up and listen.

[Branduil]

If it's a choice between Brunson and DFS vs. KP and THJ, I'm keeping the former and trading the latter.

KP is probably close to as much value as he's gonna get, and we know teams wanted THJ for more money, so even if he's struggling (in the Mavs' garbage offense), he can fetch something of value. Trade those two for some kind of frontcourt help.

[mvossman]

If it's a choice between Brunson and DFS vs. KP and THJ, I'm keeping the former and trading the latter.

KP is probably close to as much value as he's gonna get, and we know teams wanted THJ for more money, so even if he's struggling (in the Mavs' garbage offense), he can fetch something of value. Trade those two for some kind of frontcourt help.

That's not really the trade off.  If we assume DFS will be 10-12 and Brunson will be 15-18 then we need to shed roughly 20 mil.  I don't think KP or THJ have any significant value.  If you are trying to dump their salary, then you are trading them for an expiring at the TDL (and you may have to send out an asset with KP) or trade them for air next offseason (which will be more difficult).  DFS has some value as an asset but dumping his salary only gets you halfway there.  Brunson has more trade value, will save more money off the books, and is more of a flight risk than DFS.  There is also a team that greatly desires his services and has our pick that is way more valuable to us than any other team.  It really seems like something could/should be done centered around Brunson for that pick.

[ClutchDirk]

How are we going to get the 2nd one? 

I'll hang up and listen.

Unicorn hate detected...

[Branduil]

It's not hate at this point, it's realism. KP is playing much better this year. He's much happier. And the team is also much, much worse. The offense is a disaster. Luka and KP just don't work together unless KP plays in a different way than he's willing or able to.

[Kammrath]

And the team is also much, much worse

Defensively I think the team is MUCH better, especially of late. Yes, the O (namely the shooting) sucks. And Luka is performing at the worst of his career IMO, so that only compounds everything.

But KP absolutely needs to be traded, I haven't changed my stance for 1.5 years on that.

[Branduil]

Defensively I think the team is MUCH better, especially of late. Yes, the O (namely the shooting) sucks. And Luka is performing at the worst of his career IMO, so that only compounds everything.

But KP absolutely needs to be traded, I haven't changed my stance for 1.5 years on that.

I feel like we mainly play good defense against bad teams but I'd need to look at the stats for that.

[SleepingHero]

It's not hate at this point, it's realism. KP is playing much better this year. He's much happier. And the team is also much, much worse. The offense is a disaster. Luka and KP just don't work together unless KP plays in a different way than he's willing or able to.

I honestly don't think the offense playing terribly has any correlation in the rise of KP's better play. We've seen flashes of the potential 2-man game between KP and Luka. Why they don't run it more is an enigma to me, but there's still time.

The real issue with the offense is the stagnation in ball movement when Luka is commanding the team. Mavs were 26th in October, 23rd in November and are currently 17th overall on the season in passes made. Last 6 games since Luka has been out the Mavs are 2nd in passes made and 8th in assists. That is a major issue that needs to be addressed.

Shooting is another huge issue. The Mavs are 23rd in 3pt%, but are 10th in FGA. Bullock, THJ, Brown, Luka, and KP have to shoot better than 35% from 3 if this team wants to be taken seriously. Their 3pt shooting has evaporated this season. A lot of reasons can be attributed to that. In any case if Kidd isn't hitting the panic button he should. Can't be built as a jump shooting team that can't shoot and expect to go anywhere.

[cow]

Shooting is another huge issue. The Mavs are 23rd in 3pt%, but are 10th in FGA. Bullock, THJ, Brown, Luka, and KP have to shoot better than 35% from 3 if this team wants to be taken seriously. Their 3pt shooting has evaporated this season. A lot of reasons can be attributed to that.

The curse of the Seth Curry trade.

[aguiar95]

I honestly don't think the offense playing terribly has any correlation in the rise of KP's better play. We've seen flashes of the potential 2-man game between KP and Luka. Why they don't run it more is an enigma to me, but there's still time.

The real issue with the offense is the stagnation in ball movement when Luka is commanding the team. Mavs were 26th in October, 23rd in November and are currently 17th overall on the season in passes made. Last 6 games since Luka has been out the Mavs are 2nd in passes made and 8th in assists. That is a major issue that needs to be addressed.

Shooting is another huge issue. The Mavs are 23rd in 3pt%, but are 10th in FGA. Bullock, THJ, Brown, Luka, and KP have to shoot better than 35% from 3 if this team wants to be taken seriously. Their 3pt shooting has evaporated this season. A lot of reasons can be attributed to that. In any case if Kidd isn't hitting the panic button he should. Can't be built as a jump shooting team that can't shoot and expect to go anywhere.

I think our comp should be UTA. They will be a though, though out in the play-offs.

They have their own Thimothy (Clarkson) and their superstar shooting below 35%. The rest of the cast though, all above (Gay, Bogdanovic, Conley, Ingles, O'Neale) + Rudy's excellent paint protection.

Only Kleber and Doe-doe (barely) are above that number and KP/Bullock with some ATROCIOUS shooting. Brunson is anoher one that fell off a cliff, but I feel that we're asking him to do too much (especially without our main ball-handler). I expect him to get back on track once Luka returns.

[Mikelo]

What do you think of Cam Reddish ..? there are multiple reports that he is available ... he has had multiple injuries, dubious decision making and is inconsistent. But that size, size and skill set at only 22 years old !! I personally think, that these are the type of guys that we should aggressively pursue, go all out ... to put around Luka. no more, Redicks, Bullocks, THJ or veterans that make us improve in the typical margins (E.Gordon, Hayward,) .. Our superstar is 22 years old and is learning, maturing, looking for a way to put everything together, he will get there for sure. ..but inevitably it will take time (history shows us this) .. I don't like to act as if we were contenders .. If we want veterans to help with the development of the team there are great memtores at least, Boban himself, JJ Barea, Dragic (next year), it is not necessary to pay Tim, that when this team is ready to compete (if we develop correctly in 2/3 years) it will be a terrible unshakable contract, if it is not already. Sorry about the billet .. and my bad English .. Blessings and have a happy holidays

[Mikelo]

Stop making bad contracts. Just recently (Forgetting KP) did we give Bullock more money than he ever made in his entire career combined ... at age 31. THJ exclusively a 36% career shooter of 3..we give him Hield's money (40% with more volume) or more than JHarris who shoots 42%, Kennard 42% etc. and is 31 years old

[khaled1987]

Stop making bad contracts. Just recently (Forgetting KP) did we give Bullock more money than he ever made in his entire career combined ... at age 31. THJ exclusively a 36% career shooter of 3..we give him Hield's money (40% with more volume) or more than JHarris who shoots 42%, Kennard 42% etc. and is 31 years old

THJ is 29

[Mikelo]

Oops then my mistake ... although it still does not go online with Luka

[aguiar95]

I got bored and decided to do a review of our current situation to each position.

My roster review so far: POINT GUARDS

Luka Doncic: Despite playing overweight and lazy, has provided us with some magic already. I have no doubt he'll be ready for the real deal when the time comes. Has to work on his conditioning to return to his form but when he gets there, he's pretty much unstoppable (still bedazzles me that he averaged 36/8/10 against one of the best teams in the league, almost solo-carriyng us to the 2nd round). SUPERSTAR - UNTOUCHABLE.

Jalen Brunson: One of our best performers so far, very consistent and reliable. Takes good care of the ball and makes some very mature plays. His FA status doesn't bother me one bit, because he's already shown he belongs with the big dogs. The question that remains unanswered is if he'd like to re-sign here to play as a 6th man or he'd like to be a starter elsewhere. I'd go as far as giving him the Clarkson contract (52M-60M/4y if I'm not mistaken). Kidd should give him some starting minutes next to Luka (maybe like KP: Start a little, then comes back for Luka and runs his unit, then closes the game) since Frank (and maybe Dragic?) can take good care of the ball as a backup if needed. Should be a no-brainer decision if he wants to stay, despite our cap situation. 6TH MAN - KEEPER.

Trey Burke: Has not disappointed me so far into this season. As a 3rd string, there's not much we can ask. Has to stop with some BS tendencies and bad shot selection, but overall can play some minutes if needed. Given our cap situation, his 
3.3M PO (surely he'll take it) still bothers me a little (not as much as last year) since we'll probably go into near tax next season. Would be a filler in some trade (7.5% trade kicker to watch out) and as we've seen (few games as a sample size) the hardship players can do just as much as he, without being integrated as much. 3RD-STRING - FILLER

Frank Ntilikina: The only bright spot from our offseason. Pesky defender with good ball-handling skills. Has to be able to make his open shots to get more playing time, but as a minimum salary, usefull player to have on the roster as he can play SG/SF and boost our defense while someone else carries the load offensively. Should be guaranteed his salary for next year. Can't run an offense and doesn't create his own shot (kinda like the opposite of Burke) which limits him to being a fringe rotation player at best. 3RD STRING - KEEPER.

JaQuori McLaughlin: Not ready for the NBA with the little he's shown. Should be waived as soon as possible to give opportunities for other undrafted guys. My suggestion is signing Grant Riller (waived by PHI). TWO-WAY SLOT - WAIVE.

SUMMARY:

This is an area that could be upgraded, but shouldn't be prioritized unless JB gives us an indication he won't stay. I know we all crave for another creator/ball-handler, but that's due to most of our SG/SF/PF/C not having the ability to handle/drive-kick the ball which I will address in other reviews. So far I'm pretty pleased to have two very good players in this position. If needed, we should throw Burke into some trade as filler to get out of his money in '22 due to our cap limitations (free up spcae for extensions/exceptions), but he's usefull on a roster that doesn't have many ball-handlers.

[dynamicalVoid]

I got bored and decided to do a review of our current situation to each position.

My roster review so far: POINT GUARDS

Luka Doncic: Despite playing overweight and lazy, has provided us with some magic already. I have no doubt he'll be ready for the real deal when the time comes. Has to work on his conditioning to return to his form but when he gets there, he's pretty much unstoppable (still bedazzles me that he averaged 36/8/10 against one of the best teams in the league, almost solo-carriyng us to the 2nd round). SUPERSTAR - UNTOUCHABLE.

Jalen Brunson: One of our best performers so far, very consistent and reliable. Takes good care of the ball and makes some very mature plays. His FA status doesn't bother me one bit, because he's already shown he belongs with the big dogs. The question that remains unanswered is if he'd like to re-sign here to play as a 6th man or he'd like to be a starter elsewhere. I'd go as far as giving him the Clarkson contract (52M-60M/4y if I'm not mistaken). Kidd should give him some starting minutes next to Luka (maybe like KP: Start a little, then comes back for Luka and runs his unit, then closes the game) since Frank (and maybe Dragic?) can take good care of the ball as a backup if needed. Should be a no-brainer decision if he wants to stay, despite our cap situation. 6TH MAN - KEEPER.

Trey Burke: Has not disappointed me so far into this season. As a 3rd string, there's not much we can ask. Has to stop with some BS tendencies and bad shot selection, but overall can play some minutes if needed. Given our cap situation, his 
3.3M PO (surely he'll take it) still bothers me a little (not as much as last year) since we'll probably go into near tax next season. Would be a filler in some trade (7.5% trade kicker to watch out) and as we've seen (few games as a sample size) the hardship players can do just as much as he, without being integrated as much. 3RD-STRING - FILLER

Frank Ntilikina: The only bright spot from our offseason. Pesky defender with good ball-handling skills. Has to be able to make his open shots to get more playing time, but as a minimum salary, usefull player to have on the roster as he can play SG/SF and boost our defense while someone else carries the load offensively. Should be guaranteed his salary for next year. Can't run an offense and doesn't create his own shot (kinda like the opposite of Burke) which limits him to being a fringe rotation player at best. 3RD STRING - KEEPER.

JaQuori McLaughlin: Not ready for the NBA with the little he's shown. Should be waived as soon as possible to give opportunities for other undrafted guys. My suggestion is signing Grant Riller (waived by PHI). TWO-WAY SLOT - WAIVE.

SUMMARY:

This is an area that could be upgraded, but shouldn't be prioritized unless JB gives us an indication he won't stay. I know we all crave for another creator/ball-handler, but that's due to most of our SG/SF/PF/C not having the ability to handle/drive-kick the ball which I will address in other reviews. So far I'm pretty pleased to have two very good players in this position. If needed, we should throw Burke into some trade as filler to get out of his money in '22 due to our cap limitations (free up spcae for extensions/exceptions), but he's usefull on a roster that doesn't have many ball-handlers.

Frank has some slick passing...from what I have seen.  Maybe you disagree.   I just wanted to add that skill to Frank's profile.   I think slick passing...or no look passing...without a bunch of turnovers is important in todays NBA...every defender is a quarter second behind on the play with good passing.  Its almost essential in todays game.

[vfromlmf]

Interesting Locked On pod this week asks "Is Brunson playing too well right now?" ... He's averaging 21/5/7 in his starts. And he's an unrestricted FA. The guys think certain teams will target Brunson as their no 1 option and throw big money at him to start, even if they have to clear cap space to do so. 

Of course, if Brunson can be this good, why not sign him to whatever number it takes and make him Luka's long term backcourt partner?

Offensively, it make a lot of sense. Brunson is clearly the second best guard on this team and he may be the second best player at any position. He can play off the ball as a secondary playmaker and run the team when Luka sits. He can score, get in the lane and although he's a average 3pt shooter, you can't go under screens. He keeps defenses honest. 

But the model breaks down on defense. Brunson is a poor defender according to the eye test and most advanced metrics. He'll take a charge but he's certainly not the disruptive on-ball bulldog this team needs next to Luka. At-best Brunson can only guard one position.

So what do we think? Can Brunson be better defensively or is his size and relative lack of athleticism always going to make him a target for opposing offenses? Can a Brunson + Luka backcourt win a title? Can those two be surrounded by enough defensive talent?

Or do the Mavs look to deal Brunson at the TDL while his stock is high? What teams would be interested? What can the Mavs get back for a 25 year old 21/5/7 starting point guard (plus other assets)? 

For reference: 

Jalen Brunson: PG; 25; Slasher; 21/5/7; LEBRON +0.81; EPM +0.7
Kristaps Porzingis: C; 26; Versatile Big; 20/8/2; LEBRON +3.34; EPM +2.9
Reggie Bullock: SG; 30; Movement Shooter; 6/3/1; LEBRON -2.24; EPM -3.8
Jerami Grant: PF; 27; Shot Creator; 20/5/3; LEBRON -0.80; EPM +0.7
Brandon Ingram: SF; 24; Shot Creator; 22/6/5; LEBRON -0.70; EPM +0.9
Pascal Siakam: PF; 27; Shot Creator; 19/8/4; LEBRON +0.86; EPM +0.8
Marcus Smart: PG; 27; Primary Ball Handler; 11/4/6; LEBRON +0.74; EPM +1.5
Christian Wood: C; 26; Stretch Big; 17/11/2; LEBRON +0.34; EPM +0.7
Montrezl Harrell: C; 27; Post Scorer; 15/7/2; LEBRON +1.35; EPM +1.9
Miles Turner: C; 25; Stretch Big; 14/7/1; LEBRON +3.65; EPM +3.3
Caris Levert: SG; 27; Secondary Ball Handler; 17/3/4; LEBRON +0.73; EPM +0.6
De'Aaron Fox: PG; 24; Slasher; 21/4/5; LEBRON -1.19; EPM -0.8
Harrison Barnes: PF; 29; Stationary Shooter; 17/4/3 LEBRON -0.23; EPM +0.6

[mvossman]

Interesting Locked On pod this week asks "Is Brunson playing too well right now?" ... He's averaging 21/5/7 in his starts. And he's an unrestricted FA. The guys think certain teams will target Brunson as their no 1 option and throw big money at him to start, even if they have to clear cap space to do so. 

Of course, if Brunson can be this good, why not sign him to whatever number it takes and make him Luka's long term backcourt partner?

Offensively, it make a lot of sense. Brunson is clearly the second best guard on this team and he may be the second best player at any position. He can play off the ball as a secondary playmaker and run the team when Luka sits. He can score, get in the lane and although he's a average 3pt shooter, you can't go under screens. He keeps defenses honest. 

But the model breaks down on defense. Brunson is a poor defender according to the eye test and most advanced metrics. He'll take a charge but he's certainly not the disruptive on-ball bulldog this team needs next to Luka. At-best Brunson can only guard one position.

So what do we think? Can Brunson be better defensively or is his size and relative lack of athleticism always going to make him a target for opposing offenses? Can a Brunson + Luka backcourt win a title? Can those two be surrounded by enough defensive talent?

Or do the Mavs look to deal Brunson at the TDL while his stock is high? What teams would be interested? What can the Mavs get back for a 25 year old 21/5/7 starting point guard (plus other assets)? 

For reference: 

Jalen Brunson: PG; 25; Slasher; 21/5/7; LEBRON +0.81; EPM +0.7
Kristaps Porzingis: C; 26; Versatile Big; 20/8/2; LEBRON +3.34; EPM +2.9
Reggie Bullock: SG; 30; Movement Shooter; 6/3/1; LEBRON -2.24; EPM -3.8
Jerami Grant: PF; 27; Shot Creator; 20/5/3; LEBRON -0.80; EPM +0.7
Brandon Ingram: SF; 24; Shot Creator; 22/6/5; LEBRON -0.70; EPM +0.9
Pascal Siakam: PF; 27; Shot Creator; 19/8/4; LEBRON +0.86; EPM +0.8
Marcus Smart: PG; 27; Primary Ball Handler; 11/4/6; LEBRON +0.74; EPM +1.5
Christian Wood: C; 26; Stretch Big; 17/11/2; LEBRON +0.34; EPM +0.7
Montrezl Harrell: C; 27; Post Scorer; 15/7/2; LEBRON +1.35; EPM +1.9
Miles Turner: C; 25; Stretch Big; 14/7/1; LEBRON +3.65; EPM +3.3
Caris Levert: SG; 27; Secondary Ball Handler; 17/3/4; LEBRON +0.73; EPM +0.6
De'Aaron Fox: PG; 24; Slasher; 21/4/5; LEBRON -1.19; EPM -0.8
Harrison Barnes: PF; 29; Stationary Shooter; 17/4/3 LEBRON -0.23; EPM +0.6

I don't see the Luka/Brunson tandem being good enough defensively to win a title.  Maybe if you matched them with an elite rim protecting center (not KP) and a couple of 3&D wings you could make it work.  It would take a complete roster overhaul to make that work.  I'm not saying this roster doesn't need an overhaul, but I don't think it makes sense to center it around making Luka/Brunson work.  

There is also no guarantee that Brunson wants to be here (especially as 6th man) or that somebody wont give him crazy money that does not make sense to match.  Given he is probably our most valuable asset (low bar) It probably makes sense to trade him at TDL.  I'm hoping for getting our 23 pick back, as Nicks are biggest suitors and that pick gives us way more flexibility.

[Scott41theMavs]

The recent conversation on this thread (what can JB bring back in trade?) is the wrong one. Rather it's, what can KP and JB together bring back in trade?