2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]

[mvossman]

When thinking about players I prefer to take them as they are, with their good and bad sides. We know Luka is good offensive player and average defender. So when building around him you need to bring guys that help where Luka is not excellent. Imho, solution is not "Luka should improve and become good defender", nor KP should improve and become excellent offensive player. Because if this would be the line of thinking, where do we draw the line? If we expect Luka should be an excellent defender, why don't we expect DFS and rest of squad to become excellent offensive guys? I am not trying to say guys should not improve, but I think team building is more realistic if you take them as they are.

If I move on to team building I try to determine the constants and then work on variables. I think it is clear that the first constant is Luka. He is here to stay. Team should be built around him. I think Mavs have another constant in KP. I don't believe they can trade him without becoming probably worse. So lets assume he is here to stay and you have to count him in the equation.

With that in mind it is obvious we already have two players that are not a good fit defensively, as I think Iztok Franko showed perfectly in the piece below. 

The long term fit of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis has nothing to do with offense - Mavs Moneyball

When you add another average defender to the mix, it is only natural that defense becomes bad. This has nothing to do with Luka being fit or not and is not a thing of this season. We have more than two seasons of data that proves that. Mavs had to know before the season that their highest paid pieces are not capable of playing good defense together. 

So when we come to Brunson, the big question is if he can provide better result than THJ. A question that becomes even more complicated as playoffs will be a much different story than regular season and it is to expected that a player like Brunson will become one of primary targets, especially if the main opponent guys are big wings. Showed by Clippers last season where they attacked Brunson with Kawhi or George on basically every offense. 

Unfortunately we don't have a lot of data to lean on even for regular season (2021-22):
- 30 minutes of Luka-Brunson-KP and THJ with DFS that were bad defensively, 
- 15 minutes of same four but Bullock instead of DFS that was great defensively
- 15 minutes of Luka-Brunson-KP-DFS-Bullock that is also below average defensively (113 per 100)

2020/21 doesn't provide much more data. Based on this I am far from certain that Brunson can be that piece next to Luka and KP, playing heavy minutes.

I agree with a lot of this, but do have a few comments:

I would classify Luka as a great offensive player and poor defender.  I agree that players are what they are, but defense can be impacted a lot by level of effort, and does seem like Luka is lacking in this area.  I think it would help a lot to get him some creation help on the offensive side of the ball so he has more energy.  It would also help if he spent less time and effort whining to the officials.

That Iztok piece was really well done (all of his are) but it was very specific to KPs play last year.  He was really bad on defense last year.  Don't know if its struggles with injury recovery or issues with his offensive role, but he seems to have reverted to his old self this season.  I'm not saying he is elite, and the Luka/KP combo definitely needs to be supported with better defensive players, but I don't think its as hopeless as it seemed last year.

Totally agree on Brunson.  I question his fit, and also his desire to stay here.  When you add in the tax implications of signing him to a big deal, there are just too many reasons to trade him at the deadline if you can.