2021-2022 MAVS NEWS: 4th in West | WCF loss [ARCHIVED]

[F Gump]

Interestingly, Bertans has a double digit positive net rating with everyone he's played more than 9 minutes with except Powell.  
.

My interpretation of this factoid --

This says a little something about Bertans -- but it speaks volumes about how badly the Mavs were needing to add a top-level shooter. They wanted KP to be this guy, but he just wasn't. They had some shooting, but were really thin. 

DB is probably their best 3-pt shooter now. Plus, he's able to get shots off that others can't. Having this sort of weapon added to the mix changes the whole dynamic of what they can do offensively.

[KillerLeft]

DB is probably their best 3-pt shooter now. Plus, he's able to get shots off that others can't. Having this sort of weapon added to the mix changes the whole dynamic of what they can do offensively.

Plus, he reminded me of a great Tom Hanks comedy from the early 90's called the 'Burbs that I have since rewatched.



All in all, pretty great trade!

[mvossman]

My interpretation of this factoid --

This says a little something about Bertans -- but it speaks volumes about how badly the Mavs were needing to add a top-level shooter. They wanted KP to be this guy, but he just wasn't. They had some shooting, but were really thin. 

DB is probably their best 3-pt shooter now. Plus, he's able to get shots off that others can't. Having this sort of weapon added to the mix changes the whole dynamic of what they can do offensively.

Right now it says more about super small samples.  It was a bigger sample than this that got Trey Burke that ridiculous contract.

I have no doubt that the change of scenery and Mavs culture will do him some good, but that Wiz fanbase saw him for over 2 seasons, and were extremely happy to see him go.  I don't think 4 games is enough to know what he is going to bring to the table long term yet.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/MFollowill/status/14...2620917761

[SleepingHero]

I agree with everything in this post except for Green being in your afterthought bucket.  A THJ for Holmes trade makes a ton of sense in a lot of ways.  After that, its hard to imagine a whole lot of moves to make.  Most guys are either negative assets that we can't afford to get off of, or more valuable to this team then they likely would be in a trade.  

Sign Brunson and trade for center (Holmes) and wait to get past the 23 draft when we have access to all of our assets.  I see that being the offseason where we make our "Jrue Holiday" move.

I wasn't trying to go for Green slander with my post. But rather that I don't think he fits in the other tiers as an asset. He's not overpaid. He's not untouchable. He doesn't have the same value as Maxi, Bullock, DFS, JB. So he's a relative afterthought as a trade asset.

He's basically a throw in. I don't want to trade Green because I think he can become a good rotation player with another summer of training. But we have to be realistic.

I agree that the next offseason will be the most likely one if we want to make our major move. Getting a center like Holmes would be a huge coup, especially if we keep the core of Luka/Brunson/Bullock/DFS/Maxi/SD/Powell. Maybe we can find a versatile 4 on the cheap like Thad Young this summer as well.

[omahen]

Marc Stein on Twitter: "The NBA has rescinded Luka Doncic's technical foul from Feb. 27, taking his season total from 13 back down to 12." / Twitter

[DanSchwartzgan]

I was just about to "like" this... until I got to the Green slander haha. Good write-up otherwise.

Luka
Brunson
DFS
X
X

Dinwiddie
Bullock
Maxi
Green
Bertans


Powell and THJ are serviceable NBA players for some team that isn't the Mavs, it is a must that they are upgraded this off-season.  

This turned out to be a pretty good conversation.  I agree...no Green slander allowed.  I personally think you can insert either Powell or Maxi in that backup big slot.  After a bad start, Powell is net positive in December, January, February and the one game in March.

I tend to agree with Mvossman that filling both of your X's in one season seems to be a tall task.  I wonder if Green isn't our starter in one of those slots by the 23/24 season.  I think there is a delicate balance to putting some kind of a scorer in one of those slots.  On the one hand, it would be nice to have a Grant/Collins/C. Wood or even Tobias Harris type who CAN create some O.  But, on a team with Luka, that player can't have a mindset of "I HAVE TO create some O every night".  This will be a big test for Dinwiddie eventually.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Thanks for the analysis. I think it has to be taken into account that samples are small and there is a lot of noise. I think there is some difference in data used. NBA.com has Dallas O/D rating in last four games at 119.1/114.3 - 4th O and 18th D.  I am also not sure why do you think defense is bad in last four games - speaking about the word routinely. Perhaps I don't understand the word correctly. I understand it in a meaning as: routinely bad D = bad D in every game. 

Based on my understanding of the word, I would say that results don't confirm it. Results show that the defense was good against Miami and GSW. It was not that good against Utah and NOP. But in this last case defense was good for three quarters, only later Mavs basically stopped playing due to high advantage - NOP scored 37 points in last quarter. You also have to take into account the shooting - was Utah shooting good because defense was bad or because they hit tough(er) shots? And the opposite with GSW. 

So I can't really say that defense is really any worse than it has been before. There was at least one 4 game stretch in January/February where defense rating was worse than in this last four games. 

SMH...I looked at the box scores of the four games and averaged the O-Rating and D-Rating for each.  It would have been easier to just screen for it.  The rankings I compared to were the season long ratings rather than the period of time that contained those games.  As to the D being "bad".  I think it is "bad" when you are running a top five D and drop down to 18th for a stretch of games.  I would define "routinely" as similar to "frequently" as opposed to something that happens in every game.  If it happens in every game, it qualifies as "always".

As you say, it is a small sample size against pretty decent opponents.  We held LAL to a pretty respectable O-Rating of 108 last night (including one REALLY bad quarter).  Did we really win the rebounding war last night?  I wouldn't have guessed that real time.  It is my impression that we didn't have this many one quarter let down's on the defensive end from about 12/30 til about the time the new guys started playing.  It was interesting to read that you found another four game stretch of bad D during the new year.  I still think it is worth "keeping an eye on", but I have greater hope that we already recovered from a defensive slump once during this run of really good play.  We are on a 61.5 win pace the last 28 games.  At some point that is no longer a small sample size.  It is who we are.

[Paul Gasol]

Plus, he reminded me of a great Tom Hanks comedy from the early 90's called the 'Burbs that I have since rewatched.



All in all, pretty great trade!

Don’t want to sidetrack things too much, but great call!! It is really is a good movie…

[omahen]

It was interesting to read that you found another four game stretch of bad D during the new year. 

Week 15, January 24th-30th. Big loss to GSW allowing 130 points, received 112 points from Portland, 110 points from Orlando and 105 from Indy. 

We are on a 61.5 win pace the last 28 games. At some point that is no longer a small sample size.  It is who we are.

I reserve any kind of optimism  Bottomline is, we are fifth in the West and looking to stay this way. This means four teams are better. Last season Mavs started 8-13 and went 26-14 in next 40 games. This season they started 11-10 and went 25-15 in next 40 games. Just about right, as team is basically the same

[DanSchwartzgan]

I wonder if Green isn't our starter in one of those slots by the 23/24 season.   

In 15 games this season where Green has played 20 minutes or more, here are his numbers:

MP:    23.5
PTS:   7.9  (12 points per 36)
REB:   3.5 (5.35 Rebs per 36)
AST:   2.4  (3.7 Assists per 36)

ORtg:  122
DRtg:  108
TS%:  .589
FG%:  .495
3P%:  .346

Green had a really nice January, but wasn't anything special in February.  IF he can show some consistency at a level similar to the numbers above, he's perfectly fine as a 5th starter...especially if two of the other starters are high usage guards and we get a big with some ability to score a bit.  There are obvious holes in his game and he still has one of the team's most positive on court impacts when he's in the game.  

The issue if you look game to game is it isn't consistent.  Good games don't seem to be dictated by minutes or shot attempts or rebounds or any one stat.  He'll be 23 when we get to the 23/24 season.  For all we know he'll be part of the additional scoring we need in the starting lineup.  On a per-36 basis, he's already roughly equivalent in points to Reggie, DFS and Maxi and closing quickly on Powell.  But, he's fourth among regulars in per-36 assists.  He's already a better per-36 rebounder than THJ, Reggie and DFS and has a better D-Rating than any regular not named Luka or Maxi.  He's pretty good at everything and a master at nothing right now.  But, on a team full of specialists, there is room for a multi-tool guy like this if he can get to the point where all of it is more consistent.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

How Jason Kidd's departure hurt the L.A. Lakers but benefited the Dallas Mavericks (msn.com)

[Dirknows]

In 15 games this season where Green has played 20 minutes or more, here are his numbers:

MP:    23.5
PTS:   7.9  (12 points per 36)
REB:   3.5 (5.35 Rebs per 36)
AST:   2.4  (3.7 Assists per 36)

ORtg:  122
DRtg:  108
TS%:  .589
FG%:  .495
3P%:  .346

Green had a really nice January, but wasn't anything special in February.  IF he can show some consistency at a level similar to the numbers above, he's perfectly fine as a 5th starter...especially if two of the other starters are high usage guards and we get a big with some ability to score a bit.  There are obvious holes in his game and he still has one of the team's most positive on court impacts when he's in the game.  

The issue if you look game to game is it isn't consistent.  Good games don't seem to be dictated by minutes or shot attempts or rebounds or any one stat.  He'll be 23 when we get to the 23/24 season.  For all we know he'll be part of the additional scoring we need in the starting lineup.  On a per-36 basis, he's already roughly equivalent in points to Reggie, DFS and Maxi and closing quickly on Powell.  But, he's fourth among regulars in per-36 assists.  He's already a better per-36 rebounder than THJ, Reggie and DFS and has a better D-Rating than any regular not named Luka or Maxi.  He's pretty good at everything and a master at nothing right now.  But, on a team full of specialists, there is room for a multi-tool guy like this if he can get to the point where all of it is more consistent.

On a per 36, his numbers are basically the same as Andre Iguodala’s in his 2nd year. Difference is we have to project Greens 36, while Iguodala was playing 37.6 minutes a game. I’d say Greens best case comparison is Iguodala, a guy who can do a little bit of everything while providing plus defense.

[Jommybone]

In 15 games this season where Green has played 20 minutes or more, here are his numbers:

MP:    23.5
PTS:   7.9  (12 points per 36)
REB:   3.5 (5.35 Rebs per 36)
AST:   2.4  (3.7 Assists per 36)

ORtg:  122
DRtg:  108
TS%:  .589
FG%:  .495
3P%:  .346

Green had a really nice January, but wasn't anything special in February.  IF he can show some consistency at a level similar to the numbers above, he's perfectly fine as a 5th starter...especially if two of the other starters are high usage guards and we get a big with some ability to score a bit.  There are obvious holes in his game and he still has one of the team's most positive on court impacts when he's in the game.  

The issue if you look game to game is it isn't consistent.  Good games don't seem to be dictated by minutes or shot attempts or rebounds or any one stat.  He'll be 23 when we get to the 23/24 season.  For all we know he'll be part of the additional scoring we need in the starting lineup.  On a per-36 basis, he's already roughly equivalent in points to Reggie, DFS and Maxi and closing quickly on Powell.  But, he's fourth among regulars in per-36 assists.  He's already a better per-36 rebounder than THJ, Reggie and DFS and has a better D-Rating than any regular not named Luka or Maxi.  He's pretty good at everything and a master at nothing right now.  But, on a team full of specialists, there is room for a multi-tool guy like this if he can get to the point where all of it is more consistent.

Good analysis. Let me add that I love him playing with Maxi and dislike him with Dwight. He can do Dwight-like bouncy stuff. And his picks aren’t bad. But paired with Dwight, one of em has to be able to knock down 3s. Which scares me.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

The Mavs were down with 6 minutes left against the Warriors and allowed 7 points the rest of the way on to a win.

The Mavs were down with 6 minutes left against the Lakers and allowed 4 points the rest of the way on to a win.

The defensive numbers overall have been really great obviously but the most impressive thing to me is when they're doing it.  We had a bad 1st quarter against the Warriors and a bad 3rd quarter against the Lakers but this team is showing tons of maturity and resolve by understanding the moments that change and win games.  That's a product of not only great coaching, but also experience in meaningful basketball games which the bulk of this roster has gained together over the last few years.

[Smitty]

Good analysis. Let me add that I love him playing with Maxi and dislike him with Dwight. He can do Dwight-like bouncy stuff. And his picks aren’t bad. But paired with Dwight, one of em has to be able to knock down 3s. Which scares me.

I agree. Idk the numbers to support or discredit my eye test but I also like Green with Maxi AND Dinwiddie. Two slashers and Green to cover up some of the defensive assignments that Dinwiddie might not handle as well. Although, I've been pleasantly surprised to watch SD on the defensive end. He is quick enough to stay in front of his man while his length allows him to challenge shots if he gets beat. I'm not sure if SD can keep up this hot stretch, but if he can - the Mavs will be dangerous in the postseason. Might want to jump on that +4000 while you can!

[Jommybone]

The Mavs were down with 6 minutes left against the Warriors and allowed 7 points the rest of the way on to a win.

The Mavs were down with 6 minutes left against the Lakers and allowed 4 points the rest of the way on to a win.

The defensive numbers overall have been really great obviously but the most impressive thing to me is when they're doing it.  We had a bad 1st quarter against the Warriors and a bad 3rd quarter against the Lakers but this team is showing tons of maturity and resolve by understanding the moments that change and win games.  That's a product of not only great coaching, but also experience in meaningful basketball games which the bulk of this roster has gained together over the last few years.

This is what I remember about the 2011 team. Last 6 mins they would just lock you down. Looks like Kidd is the common denominator.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/CallieCaplan/status/...4849439751

[MaxiThreeba]

Good analysis. Let me add that I love him playing with Maxi and dislike him with Dwight. He can do Dwight-like bouncy stuff. And his picks aren’t bad. But paired with Dwight, one of em has to be able to knock down 3s. Which scares me.

Great point.

There were a couple of possessions last night with Maxi and Josh on the floor where Josh was legitimately playing Powell's role offensively.  

I could squint and see Josh developing into something like Miles Bridges.  Bridges is a freak that is in the top quartile as both a roll man and a ball handler in the PnR.  I am not saying that Green will ever be what Bridges has become.  Josh isn't on Bridges' level across the board but JG does possess some similarly unique traits that could allow him to develop into a multi-tool player like Bridges.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1499055095937482753