The last 2 NBA champions

[mvossman]

On that note, while defense is obviously very important, something easier to quantify quickly is just flat out above-average efficiency and production. The defense,lineups,  gameplan, etc can all become easier and improved if there are at least players on the roster producing positively. 


The Bucks had 5 players each logging over 1,000 minutes over the regular+post season with a Player Efficiency Rating above average:

-Giannis
-Holiday
-Middleton
-Portis
-Lopez 

With the exception of Portis, the other 4 were also the main starters and leaders in minutes. 


In Dallas we had 3 players meeting the same criteria:

-Luka
-Powell
-Brunson

And essentially only Luka was a main starter and leader in minutes.

That is a very old stat, and many improvements have been made in box score stats (BPM for example) and we now have access to advanced on/off stats (RPM for example) that do a much better job assessing defense (with a big enough sample).

Based on those stats, the teams are laid out as follows:

Bucks:
Elite Superstar:  Giannis  (higher than Luka in both ratings due to his defense)
#2/3 guy:         Holiday, Middleton
Quality Starter:  Lopez, Devincenzo
Quality Bench:   Portis, Connaughton

Mavs:
Elite Superstar: Luka
#2/3 guy:        KP  (this seems like a stretch, but he was at the bottom of a #3 guy.  Much more solidly here last year)
Quality Starter: DFS, THJ
Quality Bench:  Brunson, Powell, Maxi

The most glaring thing missing in the Mavs roster here is a true #2.  Using these same stats and looking at free agents that could fit that role:

Kawhi (superstar)
Conley (#2)
Lowry (#2/3 but declining)
Ball (#3)
Collins (#3)

That's it (notice DeRozan is missing from the list).  The most impactful thing we can do this off season, is get one of these guys.

[cow]

That is a very old stat, and many improvements have been made in box score stats (BPM for example) and we now have access to advanced on/off stats (RPM for example) that do a much better job assessing defense (with a big enough sample).

Based on those stats, the teams are laid out as follows:

Bucks:
Elite Superstar:  Giannis  (higher than Luka in both ratings due to his defense)
#2/3 guy:         Holiday, Middleton
Quality Starter:  Lopez, Devincenzo
Quality Bench:   Portis, Connaughton

Mavs:
Elite Superstar: Luka
#2/3 guy:        KP  (this seems like a stretch, but he was at the bottom of a #3 guy.  Much more solidly here last year)
Quality Starter: DFS, THJ
Quality Bench:  Brunson, Powell

The most glaring thing missing in the Mavs roster here is a true #2.  Using these same stats and looking at free agents that could fit that role:

Kawhi (superstar)
Conley (#2)
Lowry (#2/3 but declining)
Ball (#3)
Collins (#3)

That's it (notice DeRozan is missing from the list).  The most impactful thing we can do this off season, is get one of these guys.

Maxi not listed as a Quality Bench and Powell is.  Color me confused.

[mvossman]

Maxi not listed as a Quality Bench and Powell is.  Color me confused.

I agree. Part of it was because Maxi was miscast as a starting 4 most of the year, and he was not good enough to be labeled a quality starter and it seemed strange to put him in the bench section.  In every other year he easily slots as a quality bench.  Powell is a strange one.  The box score stats across the board always seem to love him.  I'm not sure why he got rated that high this year as it does not meet the eye test, but I was going purely off the stats and not my interpretation.

[cow]

I agree. Part of it was because Maxi was miscast as a starting 4 most of the year, and he was not good enough to be labeled a quality starter and it seemed strange to put him in the bench section.  In every other year he easily slots as a quality bench.  Powell is a strange one.  The box score stats across the board always seem to love him.  I'm not sure why he got rated that high this year as it does not meet the eye test, but I was going purely off the stats and not my interpretation.

I can see Powell pre-injury making the list, but this past year?  I love stats but that helps prove the point that you need to watch games as well.  I figured Maxi's shooting and versatile defense would at least get him as a bench guy.

[Scott41theMavs]

I can see Powell pre-injury making the list, but this past year?  I love stats but that helps prove the point that you need to watch games as well.  I figured Maxi's shooting and versatile defense would at least get him as a bench guy.

Toward the end of the year, I actually thought Dwight was better than he was pre-injury. In all seriousness. I used to hate his game.

[cow]

Toward the end of the year, I actually thought Dwight was better than he was pre-injury. In all seriousness. I used to hate his game.

He looked better towards the end of the year, yes, but the one elite skill he had still wasn't there.  And he still does that dumb shit where he jumps for rebounds when he is WAY out of position that drives me crazy as it is a waste of hustle and puts himself out of position on transition.

[mvossman]

Maxi not listed as a Quality Bench and Powell is.  Color me confused.

I decided you are right and updated it.  Not that it really matters.