07-28-2021, 11:12 AM
(07-28-2021, 10:30 AM)mvossman Wrote: I think back in the Kemba days somebody posted some research that short point guards tend to fall off a cliff in their early 30s (which certainly seems to be the case for Kemba).
Yep, that was me.
Lowry HAS indeed gotten through the typical steep decline stage for small guards, BUT he is rapidly approaching the cliff that ALL players hit. Dirk's last GREAT season was age 35. He was never the same after that. ALSO Lowry is already showing that decline the last two years (what Dirk started at age 36, Lowry has ALREADY begun two years earlier).
If the pattern holds (and you never know, but statistically it should), Lowry is going to become a player of very marginal value in the next season or two. The key is that the decline is there if you look at the stats, it has already begun. The cliff is approaching and it might even be this next season (especially if he gets hurt in any way).