Mavs 113, Clippers 103

[burekemde]

A lot is made out of three point shooting, and whether Dallas can win if Clippers shoot as well the 3 pointer. Dallas won, hence it means within some stats, they were better than the opponent. In this case it was 3 point shooting. It's hard to take the isolated stats out of the entire context. So many other things that impact this. Such as defense. Mavs played better 3 point D than Clippers.

Why were Clippers better in many other areas - Can they even sustain that? In next games, maybe Mavs are much better within these other stats and they will still win, just in a different manner than game one. How about the Mavs bench? They underperformed IMO. The leads were built from our starters. The bench did on several occasion underperform. Will that even be sustainable? In next games perhaps our bench outperforms the Clippers. So if 3 point shooting is not where Mavs win next time, it could within the numerous other stats of the game.

Hard to break down isolated individual stats. One thing that stood out to me, was that our starting unit was just clearly better than the one for the Clippers and Clippers both in terms of talent and scheming, could not adapt to the this unit. This is something that is extremely promising for winning the series. That being said, our bench will need to have good games contributing to some wins. Brunson was underperorming IMO, he got some late great plays but most of first three quarters, I think he usually plays even better, and that is expected to be the case going forward. Yes THJ and DFA had great games, but KP not. Hence next game, perhaps KP is the one that has one of his best season games.

As we reach more crucial games in series, our starters are expected to play even more minutes, and the Clippers would need to find some ways to stop that unit. Honestly, that will not be easy.

[mavsluvr]

A lot is made out of three point shooting, and whether Dallas can win if Clippers shoot as well the 3 pointer. Dallas won, hence it means within some stats, they were better than the opponent. In this case it was 3 point shooting. It's hard to take the isolated stats out of the entire context. So many other things that impact this. Such as defense. Mavs played better 3 point D than Clippers.

Why were Clippers better in many other areas - Can they even sustain that? In next games, maybe Mavs are much better within these other stats and they will still win, just in a different manner than game one. How about the Mavs bench? They underperformed IMO. The leads were built from our starters. The bench did on several occasion underperform. Will that even be sustainable? In next games perhaps our bench outperforms the Clippers. So if 3 point shooting is not where Mavs win next time, it could within the numerous other stats of the game.

Hard to break down isolated individual stats. One thing that stood out to me, was that our starting unit was just clearly better than the one for the Clippers and Clippers both in terms of talent and scheming, could not adapt to the this unit. This is something that is extremely promising for winning the series. That being said, our bench will need to have good games contributing to some wins. Brunson was underperorming IMO, he got some late great plays but most of first three quarters, I think he usually plays even better, and that is expected to be the case going forward. Yes THJ and DFA had great games, but KP not. Hence next game, perhaps KP is the one that has one of his best season games.

As we reach more crucial games in series, our starters are expected to play even more minutes, and the Clippers would need to find some ways to stop that unit. Honestly, that will not be easy.

Hard to argue with any of this. 

Of course, the same arguments could be made wrt the Clippers, too. 

But I like the positive outlook!

[Jommybone]

Give me four more games to add to that sample size, so it is 8 total. A four game sample size can easily be an outlier...eight games is a lot less likely.

Shots, games, seasons? What should be the unit for determining sample size?  I dunno. But you’re certainly right that the Clips have shot the 3 better than other teams this year. All of them. Except for some reason against the Mavs. Against the Mavs, they have been dismal in 3 of 4 outings. 

Which made me curious. How have other elite 3-point teams fared against our boys in blue? There might be some fat-finger errors in here, because I’m looking at the numbers game by game. But here is the story that my reading of the stats tells:

Mavs D vs. the #1 3-ball team in the league: LA Clippers (who averaged 40.9% on the year)
Game details in previous post
27.7% (-13.2% from average)

vs. #2 New York Knicks (39.2%)
4/2: 12/32 (31.6%)
4/16: 14/28 (50%)
Total 26/60 (43.3%) (+4.1% over average)

vs. #3 Brooklyn Nets (39.0%)
2/27: 14/44 (31.8%)
5/6: 13/37 (35.1%)
Total 27/81 (33.3%) (-5.7% from average)

vs. #4 Utah Jazz (38.9%)
1/27: 16/41 (39.0%)
1/29: 20/48 (41.7%)
4/5: 12/44 (27.3%)
Total 48/133 (36.1%) (-2.8% from average)

vs. #5 Portland Trailblazers (38.6%)
2/14: 18/40 (45%)
3/19: 22/47 (46.8%)
3/21: 9/41 (22.0%)
Total 49/128 (38.3% (-0.3% from average)

vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks (38.6%)
1/15: 14/37 (37.8%)
4/8: 12/33 (36.4%)
Total 26/70 (37.1%) (-0.7% from average)

This Mavs team is kinda hard to shoot 3s on, no?

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I'm not suggesting, I'm claiming. Maybe it's overhelping on Kawhi & PG in empty arenas or just some hot streak feeding of confidence.
They shot better this year than they should.
Not saying they wont do it again, but I wouldn't count on it in this playoffs.

You can say the same for Dallas. If I remember correctly they had a game a few weeks ago, where they shot 6 for 35 from 3 in a blowout loss to the Kings. I expect the Clippers to shoot better next game. Shooting comes and goes for all teams. The teams that are the most consistent will win the majority of the time.

[SleepingHero]

Obviously if our starters killed it, the bench must not have been good.  LAC made a 16-7 run when KP sat in the first quarter and a 9-1 run when he was out in the early 4th.  We were -5 in minutes he sat.  We were -9 in the minutes Luka sat.  The gravity of KP was pretty amazing.  To look like total dog poop for three quarters and be +13 (and the opponent starting center -13), is remarkable.

[Mapka]

You can say the same for Dallas.

You can say that, but it would be just rightout wrong. The Clips improved their 3pt% from 37 to 41.4 by replacing Lou Will with Rondo. The Mavs got worse from 36.6 to 36.2.

I expect the Clippers to shoot better next game. Shooting comes and goes for all teams. The teams that are the most consistent will win the majority of the time.

Better than 27,5% from threepointland, likely - over 40% for the remainder of the series, i doubt it.

Consistency gives you nothing here. The Mavs might go 50% - 30% - 50% -30% -50%. I´ll take that over 37% - 37% - 37% ....

[HoosierDaddyKid]

You can say that, but it would be just rightout wrong. The Clips improved their 3pt% from 37 to 41.4 by replacing Lou Will with Rondo. The Mavs got worse from 36.6 to 36.2.


Better than 27,5% from threepointland, likely - over 40% for the remainder of the series, i doubt it.

Consistency gives you nothing here. The Mavs might go 50% - 30% - 50% -30% -50%. I´ll take that over 37% - 37% - 37% ....

36.6 to 36.2 is such a huge disparity...      And who says Dallas shoots at least 50% in the next 3 games?  Could it happen?  maybe, but highly doubtful.   I'll take the under.

[Mapka]

36.6 to 36.2 is such a huge disparity...    

I was always talking about the clips 40%+ for the season and the claim, that the clips will "regress to THIS mean".

And who says Dallas shoots at least 50% in the next 3 games?  Could it happen?  maybe, but highly doubtful.   I'll take the under.

Not me

I said I would prefer them to go 50% - 30% - 50%.. than just go 37% - 37% - 37%

[fifteenth]

Watching highlights, I just noticed that when Luka backed Pat Bev down and shot over him as if he wasn't ever there, that Luka yelled "you're too small" at him after the basket. LOL.

[KillerLeft]

Watching highlights, I just noticed that when Luka backed Pat Bev down and shot over him as if he wasn't ever there, that Luka yelled "you're too small" at him after the basket. LOL.

That's almost what he said.

[fifteenth]

That's almost what he said.

Well...yeah  

[TXBamanut]

Here's my read on the historical Clippers.

Everyone has always had this team in any league you've ever played against.  All the talent, 10 cent head.  My classic one was this league I played in and you look at them...no way anyone should beat them...but they win by 20 or lose by 20...and you see them go up by 20, and then lose by 20 in the same game.  They finish 3rd or 4th and talk next year, but...

They all mouth...all talent...all talk, but that head just gets in the way.

Still see the same thing.  Different players, different dudes, same ol' mentality....

I could see them lose by 50 or win by 30...but a championship...THEY...WILL...NOT...WIN.  

[ItsGoTime]

I am getting a 2011 Mavs vs Lakers feeling. It wasn’t til I think game 2 or 3 where I fully bought into that team and had few doubts that they would win the series.

[michaeltex]

Could be a strange post season in the west...

LALs (defending champs) start in the lower half as a 7 seed.
DAL ends up 5th due to a 3 way tie breaker that is only invoked due to 2 losses to non-playoff lottery teams.
3 of the 4 top seeds lose their first game. 
According to one set of data, an away team winning the first game has a 66% chance of winning series. Winning the first two as an away team increased the series chances to 79%.

FWIW, enjoying a little schadenfreude with the LAL struggles. Be fun to see them panic if they get down 2-0.

If both LAL and LAC miss the finals, is it blow up time in LA?

[khaled1987]

Could be a strange post season in the west...

LALs (defending champs) start in the lower half as a 7 seed.
DAL ends up 5th due to a 3 way tie breaker that is only invoked due to 2 losses to non-playoff lottery teams.
3 of the 4 top seeds lose their first game. 
According to one set of data, an away team winning the first game has a 66% chance of winning series. Winning the first two as an away team increased the series chances to 79%.

FWIW, enjoying a little schadenfreude with the LAL struggles. Be fun to see them panic if they get down 2-0.

If both LAL and LAC miss the finals, is it blow up time in LA?

Nah, both franchise traded their future for this.
They will stick to their stars as long as they can

[Scott41theMavs]

Nah, both franchise traded their future for this.
They will stick to their stars as long as they can

I hope Kawhi doesn't give the Clitts a choice.

[mavsluvr]

Ty Lue indicated to reporters that he thinks Kawhi will be guarding Luka on Tuesday. 

My reaction:

1. Since he is a coach purporting to talk about strategy before a game, I take his statement with a heaping teaspoon of salt. 

2.  If it does turn out to be true, in the sense of Luka being Kawhi's primary assignment, I think that is a desperate move -- more like something you would do if you were down 3-2.  Bring it on!

[KillerLeft]

2.  If it does turn out to be true, in the sense of Luka being Kawhi's primary assignment, I think that is a desperate move -- more like something you would do if you were down 3-2.  Bring it on!

For sure. It gives Dallas the means to ensure Kawhi guards whomever they choose by running ball screens. Might as well give Carlisle a W now, if this is true.

[burekemde]

Ty Lue indicated to reporters that he thinks Kawhi will be guarding Luka on Tuesday. 

My reaction:

1. Since he is a coach purporting to talk about strategy before a game, I take his statement with a heaping teaspoon of salt. 

2.  If it does turn out to be true, in the sense of Luka being Kawhi's primary assignment, I think that is a desperate move -- more like something you would do if you were down 3-2.  Bring it on!

I guess Kawhi can only guard Luka, if Mavs allow him so? Otherwise pick and roll with Kleber, and let Zubac switch on Luka, if Mavs dont like the matchup. Clippers can then choose their poison, whether they accept Luka Zubac matchup, or an open Kleber for a 3.

We have however seen before Luka can beat Kawhi one on one.

Clippers cant hold down the Mavs offense, but they can try throwing different things at Mavs at the best, hoping to limit the offense.

[mavsluvr]

I guess Kawhi can only guard Luka, if Mavs allow him so? Otherwise pick and roll with Kleber, and let Zubac switch on Luka, if Mavs dont like the matchup. Clippers can then choose their poison, whether they accept Luka Zubac matchup, or an open Kleber for a 3.

We have however seen before Luka can beat Kawhi one on one.

Clippers cant hold down the Mavs offense, but they can try throwing different things at Mavs at the best, hoping to limit the offense.

Totally. Either the Mavs pick Kawhi off, or Kawhi wears himself out fighting through and around the screens and still has to face Luka one-on-one. 

It may be that the situation gets so desperate they have to put their biggest gun on Luka, even though he is their best offensive option. But I see that as a panic move at this point. 

I do look for the Clippers to continue to throw the kitchen sink at Luka, which will probably include Kawhi on him occasionally.