Mavs 113, Clippers 103

[KillerLeft]

OT, am I the only one who hears that name and expects to turn around and see a dude covered head to foot in long brown fur?

Yes. It has never occurred to me once that hearing someone's name might make them appear in my home, standing behind me. 

That's what you meant, right?

[Scott41theMavs]

Yes. It has never occurred to me once that hearing someone's name might make them appear in my home, standing behind me. 

That's what you meant, right?

Um, no.
People like you are why we can't have good things.

[KillerLeft]

People like you are why we can't have good things.

[Jommybone]

@"KillerLeft", maybe a key is this: is the Mavs defense somewhat responsible for the poor shooting? Crazy idea, I know, but: we've seen recently that the Mavs defensive rating against teams that made the playoffs was very good this year. Do we have a defense that's better than we've thought because it showed up only intermittently during the season?

We prioritize defending the 3 over defending the 2. At least that’s my take. And teams with a bruising inside presence (Philly, NY) take advantage. But teams that rely heavily on elite 3-point shooting (GSW, LAC) underperform.

[ThisIStheYear]

Just finished a rewatch of the game (thinking more clearly, without the adrenaline). 

The Mavs are still in trouble. They got close to ideal performances from DFS and THJ on both ends of the court. Luka was Luka, and he might be able to play that well in most games of the series, but that might be the high water mark for THJ and DFS. You can argue that Brunson has another level to reach, and obviously we can hope for more out of Porzingis (maybe they figured some stuff out late that will help), but this was a GREAT performance by the Mavs...and the game was in question until very late. 

On the flip side, basically only Leonard played well for the Clippers, and he could actually play quite a bit better. If, for example, the Clippers get the 2nd half Paul George for the entire game, this is a Mavs loss. If they get ANYTHING from Jackson, Morris or Beverley, this is a Mavs loss. 

I'm happy for the win, but still not feeling great about this.

It’s the playoffs against an evenly matched opponent — nearly all the games should be in question until late. Last year, only the Mavs had matchup problems to solve. This year, both teams do. Luka is the best closer on the floor, whether he’s facilitating or scoring.  Give him a series where all the games are in doubt at the 4 minute mark, and I’d bet he’d like his chances.  The West is nuts.  I honestly don’t see much separation between the top 7 teams, and Memphis has a scary athletic and talented roster itself.  It could just come down to the team with the most dynamic player wins.  Maybe the Mavs have a shot.

[DrMav]

Maybe the Mavs have a shot.

Are you saying that this is the year?

[Tyler]

"The Mavs gave us their best shot, we didn't play well, and we were still tied with three minutes left. The Mavs are unlikely to play that well again, and we are unlikely to play that badly again. Clippers in six."

It's completely expected, but that's the same typical homer viewpoint that we heard out of LA last year. And we saw how that worked out. Personally I think the Clippers fans just haven't quite figured out that all the hype from the Kawhi/George free agency summer was overblown and that their team as a whole is extremely overrated. But they'll learn soon enough.

Mavs in six. (Or less)

[mavsluvr]

Thanks for another great synopsis!  I think if KP can just come out more aggressive and get better offensive position around the lane, he can put a lot of pressure on whomever is guarding him, and get to the line more as well.  He should be taking close to 10 FTs per game.  If he can step it up a bit, the Mavs may just win this series.

Agree that if KP could step it up, that would be enormous. 

I think it might be doable. KP needs to have the appropriate attitude to play his assigned role, which he seems to be grudgingly coming around to, at least for this series. And the coaching staff probably needs to make an adjustment to put him into position for better looks, if they can do it without wrecking the rest of the offense. It's possible that the Clips could take Kawhi off him. It would be interesting if the coaches/team could figure out a way to unleash the lethal but little-used KP-Luka PNR.

[fifteenth]

Honestly it´s a bit embarrassing how you guys are trying to forcefeed this opinion that KP wasn´t utter wank in this game, 

Whatever. Read the whole thread. Or break down the chess game that had our starters win the starter battle. Feel free to insist on being miserable but no need to straw man good analysis that points out the little bit of good that goes along with the obvious bad.

[mavsluvr]

It's completely expected, but that's the same typical homer viewpoint that we heard out of LA last year. And we saw how that worked out. Personally I think the Clippers fans just haven't quite figured out that all the hype from the Kawhi/George free agency summer was overblown and that their team as a whole is extremely overrated. But they'll learn soon enough.

Mavs in six. (Or less)

They've definitely pushed all their chips in for a championship-or-bust season. 

I think they will be under tremendous pressure to win Game Two. If they go two games down, they won't be out of it, but they'll be in a world of hurt.

If they lose the series, I think they have to re-think their whole construct. It's not like the Clippers ever particularly wanted Paul George. Kawhi persuaded him to go there, and the Clips just cooperated with that. They've already dismissed the coach who was supposed to lead them to glory. 

Even if they win the series, they might have to reconsider the KL-PG core if they don't go on to win the championship, or at least make the finals. 

Listening to a few Clippers broadcasts, they seemed supremely confident going into the series, and pretty downcast not to see their team perform as expected.

[omahen]

They've definitely pushed all their chips in for a championship-or-bust season. 

I think they will be under tremendous pressure to win Game Two. If they go two games down, they won't be out of it, but they'll be in a world of hurt.

If they lose the series, I think they have to re-think their whole construct. It's not like the Clippers ever particularly wanted Paul George. Kawhi persuaded him to go there, and the Clips just cooperated with that. They've already dismissed the coach who was supposed to lead them to glory. 

Even if they win the series, they might have to reconsider the KL-PG core if they don't go on to win the championship, or at least make the finals. 

Listening to a few Clippers broadcasts, they seemed supremely confident going into the series, and pretty downcast not to see their team perform as expected.

I think their main problem is that they don't have a leader. Kawhi is not a leader, he is "just" a robot that scores 25-30 ppg. He was best player in SA but he wasn't the leader, it was Duncan/Parker/Manu. Similar thing in Toronto with Lowry being the heart and soul of the team. 

George is sort of what we are guessing about KP on Mavs. Thinks of himself as top star, wants to be one but doesn't really deliver. And certainly has a hard time to get others to follow him. 

I guess their only chance is going after a vet leader, but this is more or less impossible since they can't do a SnT for someone like Lowry. I just don't see any natural born leader that would be available by trade, unless George is put on the table.

[Tyler]

Listening to a few Clippers broadcasts, they seemed supremely confident going into the series, and pretty downcast not to see their team perform as expected.

Speaking of the broadcasts, I find it sorta comical how desperately the national announcers were trying to make "Playoff Rondo" a thing during the game. Aside from the complete lack of historical context for Rondo's playoff performance in Dallas (Richard Jefferson almost said something but held back) or how he's been chased off of every team he's ever played for (8 and counting), I interpret it as a major sign of insecurity. It just comes across as Clippers sycophants trying to distract from the usual Playoff P memes. 

If you have to hang your playoff hopes on Rondo, your team just isn't as good as you think.

[mavsluvr]

I think their main problem is that they don't have a leader. Kawhi is not a leader, he is "just" a robot that scores 25-30 ppg. He was best player in SA but he wasn't the leader, it was Duncan/Parker/Manu. Similar thing in Toronto with Lowry being the heart and soul of the team. 

Yes, in addition to a spiritual leader, it seems like they could benefit from an excellent game-managing point guard on the court. Maybe they think they have that with Rondo, but he doesn't normally play many minutes. 

George is sort of what we are guessing about KP on Mavs. Thinks of himself as top star, wants to be one but doesn't really deliver. And certainly has a hard time to get others to follow him. 

Very interesting comparison. Hyped like a big star, and can deliver on occasion, but somewhat suspect in terms of reliability and consistency. Hmm.

I guess their only chance is going after a vet leader, but this is more or less impossible since they can't do a SnT for someone like Lowry. I just don't see any natural born leader that would be available by trade, unless George is put on the table.

I will be very interested in what they do if their team doesn't at least make it to the WCF. That is a team that has had a boatload of talent in and out for a long time now, and yet has somehow never lived up to the press releases.

[Kammrath]

Just finished a rewatch of the game (thinking more clearly, without the adrenaline). 

The Mavs are still in trouble. They got close to ideal performances from DFS and THJ on both ends of the court. Luka was Luka, and he might be able to play that well in most games of the series, but that might be the high water mark for THJ and DFS. You can argue that Brunson has another level to reach, and obviously we can hope for more out of Porzingis (maybe they figured some stuff out late that will help), but this was a GREAT performance by the Mavs...and the game was in question until very late. 

On the flip side, basically only Leonard played well for the Clippers, and he could actually play quite a bit better. If, for example, the Clippers get the 2nd half Paul George for the entire game, this is a Mavs loss. If they get ANYTHING from Jackson, Morris or Beverley, this is a Mavs loss. 

I'm happy for the win, but still not feeling great about this.

I will not feel good about this series until the Mavs win a game where they shoot about the same percent on 3s as LAC. 

DAL shot 47.2%....LAC 27.5%. 

This LAC team is one of the best three point shooting teams in NBA HISTORY, so I need the Mavs to win a game when LAC is at least at their season average of 40+% to feel good. 

Do I like the Mavs winning game one? HELL YES, it puts psychological pressure on the Clips. But the Mavs need to show me another gear or two before I switch my pick of LAC in 6.

[Jommybone]

Clips shooting 3s vs. Mavs this season:

12/27: 4/33 (12.1%)
3/15: 14/32 (43.8%)
3/17: 9/32 (28.1%)
5/22: 11/40 (27.5%)

Total: 38/137 (27.7%)

I am not at all certain yesterday’s game was the outlier you think it was, Kam. And it’s hard to call this (137 attempts) small volume.

[Kammrath]

I am not at all certain yesterday’s game was the outlier you think it was, Kam. And it’s hard to call this (137 attempts) small volume.

Give me four more games to add to that sample size, so it is 8 total. A four game sample size can easily be an outlier...eight games is a lot less likely.

[Mapka]

This LAC team is one of the best three point shooting teams in NBA HISTORY, so I need the Mavs to win a game when LAC is at least at their season average of 40+% to feel good. 

I think hitting at a high clip and being a good shooting team is not always the same thing.

Looking at this list of 40%+ shooters the 40% seem more like the aberration than the 27,5%.

[Kammrath]

I think hitting at a high clip and being a good shooting team is not always the same thing.

Looking at this list of 40%+ shooters the 40% seem more like the aberration than the 27,5%.

Are you suggesting that LAC's shooting over a 2,498 shot sample size is an "aberration"??

[Mapka]

Are you suggesting that LAC's shooting over a 2,498 shot sample size is an "aberration"??

I'm not suggesting, I'm claiming. Maybe it's overhelping on Kawhi & PG in empty arenas or just some hot streak feeding of confidence.
They shot better this year than they should.
Not saying they wont do it again, but I wouldn't count on it in this playoffs.

[mavsluvr]

Clips shooting 3s vs. Mavs this season:

12/27: 4/33 (12.1%)
3/15: 14/32 (43.8%)
3/17: 9/32 (28.1%)
5/22: 11/40 (27.5%)

Total: 38/137 (27.7%)

I am not at all certain yesterday’s game was the outlier you think it was, Kam. And it’s hard to call this (137 attempts) small volume.

Thanks for looking these stats up. 

That being said, this season has had so many bizarre circumstances that I pretty much take any of the season stats with at least half a grain of salt. 

Too bad, because I would really prefer to believe that this means that the Clippers are going to shoot poorly the rest of the series. Sigh.