Mavs 113, Clippers 103

[KillerLeft]

due to some scouting that the Mavs set such bad screens.

Well, you never know. Maybe Kleber's injury status opens the door for some better screens.

[fifteenth]

Heard some discussion of the Kawhi-countered-with-screens idea on one of the pods. They were speculating that this might be a case of Lue's having confidence in Kawhi's being able to stick with Luka, due to some scouting that the Mavs set such bad screens.

DP time

[F Gump]

Ty Lue indicated to reporters that he thinks Kawhi will be guarding Luka on Tuesday.

It's incredibly stupid for Lue to give the Mavs 3 days advance warning of an adjustment that's coming.

So will they really make that change for the game? Will they do it only part of the time? Or are they trying to fool the Mavs, or get in Luka's head and confuse him?

Then again, Lue may be that dumb. We'll see what happens.

[meistermatze]

A little late to the party (although I watched the game live, because it was a very decent time to do so in Europe) I will add my two cents after reading this thread:

I was really psyched, we played an excellent game on both ends of the court and capitalized on a lackluster performance by the Clippers. But for sure, it's debatable how much we actually had to to with them shooting the 3 ball so poorly. Our defense and effort at least looked very good.

If it, indeed, had a lot to do witht he Mavs and they can repeat that effort, I think we are in good shape. Crazy to say it with Kawhi on the other side but having the best player on the court in Luka is a huge plus for us.

If, and unfortunately that's my take for the moment, the Mavs did not have so much to do with the Clippers' struggles and they were just kind of "off", then we could still be in trouble. I am also with Killer here - it felt like a Mavs-night, on offense, too. We hit so many tough (tough, not impossible) shots which could have easily gone the other way. I don't think we can expext those kinds of performances by THJ and DoDo for the entire series. Everybody besides KP pretty much played their A-game.

Sorry to be a little bit negative here and although I said it before that we can beat the Clippers, I am still convinced that we need EVERYTHING to fall into place for us. It did once, nobody's saying it can't happen twice, thrice or four times but obviously it gets more unlikely (IF it is indeed not a sustainable level by the Mavs).

IF, however, we saw a Mavs' performance that is repeatable for them on a consistent basis, then we are in great shape. Game 1's level of play by the Mavs would give any team problems. It could very well be that in the playoffs, our growing pains are over and the boys are totally focused (well at least they should be and it's a good thing we don't meet the Kings or similar slouches in the postseason).

I do acutally think that Lue is talking straight and we will see the Clippers throw everything at Luka. I am also of the opinion, that it is rather unlikely for the Mavs' roleplayers to beat them again. I hope KP steps it up big time and we pull out another W which would leave the Clippers utter desperate but I fear it is the best option against the Mavs. Luka handles the double teams waaaay better than early in the season so I am not concerned about him. It's all about the Mavs' roleplayers. And I don't really see how Rick can change his plan to adapt to this.

Any thoughts here?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Heard some discussion of the Kawhi-countered-with-screens idea on one of the pods. They were speculating that this might be a case of Lue's having confidence in Kawhi's being able to stick with Luka, due to some scouting that the Mavs set such bad screens.

The thing is, Kawhi did cover Luka on a fairly large number of plays.  The Mav's just forced the switch...often to Zubac.  Next thing you know, Leonard is covering Maxi.  LA did have more success with Ibaka in the game, but his time was mainly against our bench.

If LA goes with a guard on Luka, we can still hunt the switch with a center or Luka can go into the post.

If they double Luka, we are playing 4 on 3 with some fairly talented offensive players from among KP, THJ, Maxi, DFS and Brunson.

Leonard can fight through the picks, but you essentially have two guys guarding Luka.  That opens up room for rim runners to roll and pick and poppers to pop.  We have all sorts of action where players other than KP, Powell and WCS set picks.  This is one of the benefits of starting THJ.  

At some point LA is going to have to try something like Morris, Batum, KL, PG and Rondo.  They don't get punished for switching, but this creates other problems.  They can't run this for 48 minutes and our bench is good enough to take advantage of what is left.  Second, there is no rim protection and Willie and Dwight now have a role to play.  But, you probably don't have the starters averaging +15 in a scenario like this LA has now forced other people to beat them.

FWIW, I see three scenarios for tonight.  The ask is that we don't all go Negative Nancy when the most likely of these happens.

70% Chance our game looks like last nights double digit Portland loss
20% Chance we lose a close one and are bummed we let one slip away
10% Chance we somehow win

Common wisdom is you get one of these two on the road and then hold home court 3 times.  It will show GREAT maturity if we make a tight game of it.  But, I'm concerned we will be happy with getting one in LA and will play satisfied while the wounded dog plays hungry.

[F Gump]

1 I do actually think that Lue is talking straight and we will see the Clippers throw everything at Luka.
2 I am also of the opinion, that it is rather unlikely for the Mavs' roleplayers to beat them again.
.....

Any thoughts here?

It remains to be seen what Lue will do.

But if, as you say, he plans to "throw everything at Luka" in game 2, then it's actually MORE likely, rather than unlikely, that the other Mavs players find ways to play well.

Lue's plan is to focus on Luka. That doesn't happen without consequences. In so doing, he would have to be taking attention (and defensive expertise) away from the other Mavs. That should give them even more of an opportunity to do well. Can they make him regret that?

[mavsluvr]

The thing is, Kawhi did cover Luka on a fairly large number of plays.  The Mav's just forced the switch...often to Zubac.  Next thing you know, Leonard is covering Maxi.  LA did have more success with Ibaka in the game, but his time was mainly against our bench.

If LA goes with a guard on Luka, we can still hunt the switch with a center or Luka can go into the post. 

Agree that, if the Clippers maintain their switching defense, then saying Kawhi (or anyone else) is going to guard Luka is essentially meaningless, except to the extent it requires them to play switchable guys.  

If they double Luka, we are playing 4 on 3 with some fairly talented offensive players from among KP, THJ, Maxi, DFS and Brunson.

If they have to, I think this is a risk they will take. We'll have to see whether the Mavericks role players and/or KP are up to the challenge for a whole series. But agree that it is a risky strategy. 

Leonard can fight through the picks, but you essentially have two guys guarding Luka.  That opens up room for rim runners to roll and pick and poppers to pop.  We have all sorts of action where players other than KP, Powell and WCS set picks.  This is one of the benefits of starting THJ.  

Thanks for mentioning this, as I don't think it gets discussed enough. The Mavs use THJ-Luka screens pretty often, with good success. Others participate, as well. 

At some point LA is going to have to try something like Morris, Batum, KL, PG and Rondo.  They don't get punished for switching, but this creates other problems.  They can't run this for 48 minutes and our bench is good enough to take advantage of what is left.  Second, there is no rim protection and Willie and Dwight now have a role to play.  But, you probably don't have the starters averaging +15 in a scenario like this LA has now forced other people to beat them.

Yes, I look for them to use their small lineups a little more, and I think they are very comfortable with that style of play. I am actually hoping for better play from our bench as a whole than we saw in Game One. There were some good individual contributions (Brunson in the fourth, Richardson in short minutes), but overall, I doubt if the Clippers are very worried about facing them again. That could change if, as you suggest, roles open up for DP and Willie.  

FWIW, I see three scenarios for tonight.  The ask is that we don't all go Negative Nancy when the most likely of these happens.

70% Chance our game looks like last nights double digit Portland loss
20% Chance we lose a close one and are bummed we let one slip away
10% Chance we somehow win

Common wisdom is you get one of these two on the road and then hold home court 3 times.  It will show GREAT maturity if we make a tight game of it.  But, I'm concerned we will be happy with getting one in LA and will play satisfied while the wounded dog plays hungry.

Thanks for your well-thought-out comments, Dan. 

As I was watching the Nuggets pounding Portland, I was thinking this could be the scenario for the Mavericks in Game Two. If they decide they have already accomplished their mission in LA by winning Game One, that is particularly likely. 

But, the 2011 series goes to show you never can tell. 

We'll see what rabbits Ty Lue pulls out of his hat tonight.

[mavsluvr]

A little late to the party (although I watched the game live, because it was a very decent time to do so in Europe) I will add my two cents after reading this thread:

I was really psyched, we played an excellent game on both ends of the court and capitalized on a lackluster performance by the Clippers. But for sure, it's debatable how much we actually had to to with them shooting the 3 ball so poorly. Our defense and effort at least looked very good.

If it, indeed, had a lot to do witht he Mavs and they can repeat that effort, I think we are in good shape. Crazy to say it with Kawhi on the other side but having the best player on the court in Luka is a huge plus for us.

A huge development!

If, and unfortunately that's my take for the moment, the Mavs did not have so much to do with the Clippers' struggles and they were just kind of "off", then we could still be in trouble. I am also with Killer here - it felt like a Mavs-night, on offense, too. We hit so many tough (tough, not impossible) shots which could have easily gone the other way. I don't think we can expext those kinds of performances by THJ and DoDo for the entire series. Everybody besides KP pretty much played their A-game.

Sorry to be a little bit negative here and although I said it before that we can beat the Clippers, I am still convinced that we need EVERYTHING to fall into place for us. It did once, nobody's saying it can't happen twice, thrice or four times but obviously it gets more unlikely (IF it is indeed not a sustainable level by the Mavs).

IF, however, we saw a Mavs' performance that is repeatable for them on a consistent basis, then we are in great shape. Game 1's level of play by the Mavs would give any team problems. It could very well be that in the playoffs, our growing pains are over and the boys are totally focused (well at least they should be and it's a good thing we don't meet the Kings or similar slouches in the postseason).

I do acutally think that Lue is talking straight and we will see the Clippers throw everything at Luka. I am also of the opinion, that it is rather unlikely for the Mavs' roleplayers to beat them again. I hope KP steps it up big time and we pull out another W which would leave the Clippers utter desperate but I fear it is the best option against the Mavs. Luka handles the double teams waaaay better than early in the season so I am not concerned about him. It's all about the Mavs' roleplayers. And I don't really see how Rick can change his plan to adapt to this.

Any thoughts here?

Thanks for detailing your thoughts, meister. 

Agree that Game Two should tell us more about who the Mavs are. Are they a one-night wonder, or do they have something real this time?

[omahen]

Agree that Game Two should tell us more about who the Mavs are. Are they a one-night wonder, or do they have something real this time?

I think only the whole series will give the answer on who Mavs really are. Individual games don't really matter a lot in this perspective. For me most interesting thing to watch will be if Mavs can answer expected Clippers aggresivenes, especially at game start. Can they keep scoring at decent percentage, can they control turnovers, can they show same level of energy. 

I am most affraid that shots won't fall and consequently everything just falls apart. I think this is by far the biggest risk. Mavs got open shots all season, but there were many nights they just couldn't score. And then they fall apart - lack of effort on defense, hero ball on offense,... I think it will be easier to overcome better shooting from Clippers.

[fifteenth]

Not trying to argue against the thought that tonight could very well be a Clippers win. But one piece of hope I have that goes against a Clippers blow out tonight is how the Mavs have played against good teams this year. We give up bunches of points and just keep  launching 3's against bad teams. But it seems like our approach against good teams has been completely different. When we do lose to good teams this season, we make the good team earn it. Seems like we grind and claw when losing to good teams. Don't have time to try to find data on that. Just going by my faulty memory.

[Hogmelon]

Not trying to argue against the thought that tonight could very well be a Clippers win. But one piece of hope I have that goes against a Clippers blow out tonight is how the Mavs have played against good teams this year. We give up bunches of points and just keep  launching 3's against bad teams. But it seems like our approach against good teams has been completely different. When we do lose to good teams this season, we make the good team earn it. Seems like we grind and claw when losing to good teams. Don't have time to try to find data on that. Just going by my faulty memory.

Here are the Mavs' 72 regular-season games sorted by point differential (with 3P% differential also thrown in):

https://stathead.com/sharing/0lVbb

[mavsluvr]

I get the viewpoint that Game One may have been an outlier by both teams. 

But, listening to the Clippers advocate that stance, it just seems really weird when your best argument that your team will win Game Two is that your team played so poorly and the other team played so well in Game One. 

[SleepingHero]

Well, you never know. Maybe Kleber's injury status opens the door for some better screens.

I don't know how the Mavs win without Maxi. One of the best Kawhi defenders in the league.

[KillerLeft]

I don't know how the Mavs win without Maxi. One of the best Kawhi defenders in the league.

[sefant]

I don't know how the Mavs win without Maxi. One of the best Kawhi defenders in the league.

Guess you try DFS on Kawhi, JRich starting on PG.

Read that Paul George got ejected twice in games being guarded by JRich during his career. And in the last 2 years he held him to 25 % shooting.

[Hogmelon]

Guess you try DFS on Kawhi, JRich starting on PG.

Read that Paul George got ejected twice in games being guarded by JRich during his career. And in the last 2 years he held him to 25 % shooting.

https://thesmokingcuban.com/2021/03/17/m...lt-39-lac/

[Jommybone]

Give me four more games to add to that sample size, so it is 8 total. A four game sample size can easily be an outlier...eight games is a lot less likely.

Amigo, I’m really hoping we only get to 7 total. But here’s the update after last night:

Clips shooting 3s vs. Mavs this season:

12/27: 4/33 (12.1%)
3/15: 14/32 (43.8%)
3/17: 9/32 (28.1%)
5/22: 11/40 (27.5%)
5/25: 13/33 (39.4%)

Total: 51/170 (30.0%)