STATE OF THE MAVS: 5/8 Point

[ClutchDirk]

Well, if morale around here is any indication, I'd say you're right.

I was ready to dump most of the team for players who would give better effort and have a desire to win last night...

One of the worst games I've seen in awhile...

[Reunion Mav Old]

Well my hopes for a continuation of a good Covid record is pretty much gone. I think we are totally underestimating the effect the Covid environment is having on our players. As a counselor I am painfully aware of how many people are hurting in ways they don't understand. The wide range of behaviors and emotions this leads to has been new to everyone. 

We are seeing numerous symptoms on our favorite team. We don't know exactly what to make of so many ways we see unexpectedly bad basketball. It is totally not surprising that we are among the teams MOST effected by Covid. We have been trying to pin this down, but I believe that to be impossible. There is simply no recent precedent for any of this. 

Our team is what I call disrupted. People are so, so disrupted. The wide range of symptoms all come from this. The treatment is not to address the specific symptoms. It is to try to reestablish a sense of normalcy in a world including an NBA world that is not normal. It is very hard to do.....but not impossible I am here to share. 

People who successfully adjust their whole outlook to this sad situation, are being able to find a new sense of positive outlook. They are able to get back to being who they are and act accordingly. Success in this way leads to a happier outlook. On a basketball court, this would look like a return to a unified sence of purpose which can overcome most of the challenges. 

Having our guys back will help us with this. Having Maxi out apparently truly sick is hurting our team in emotional ways that cannot be discounted. Hopefully we can(so to speak) all get back on the same page now. As I say to my clients, we have all of the personal wonderfulness that we need on this team. Now we need to find a way to regain our sense of positive outlook. In basketball, that does indeed look like a little rest, a few wins in a row and the joy of being on a team with a positive outlook.

[Kammrath]

At the quarter mark here are the on/off numbers (focusing on the guys who have logged more than 100 minutes on court):

1. WCS: +14.2
   
2. Luka: +7.4
   
3. Maxi: +6.4
   
4. DFS: +2.9
   
5. THJ: +2.6
   
6. JB: +1.6
   
7. DP: -0.3
   
8. JG: -0.9
   
9. JR: -1.8
   
10. JJ: -4.2
    
11. TB: -5.0
    
12. KP: -6.5
    
13. WI: -10.0
      

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

I want to see the top 7 guys (Luka, KP, JRich, THJ, Maxi, DFS, Brunson) healthy and playing together for a good stretch before I really make any determinations about this team.  If everyone stays healthy and Maxi comes back next week, maybe mid February to mid March will be a good time to judge what we have.  The Heat are 6-11 albeit missing Jimmy Butler.  No one questions their culture, mentality, or coaching.  It's just a weird season if your roster isn't 100% together practicing and playing.  A lot of these players do have their warts but KP, DFS, etc arent this bad.  I also expected JRich to be better.  Maybe they do miss Barea's leadership.

[Kammrath]

At the quarter mark here are the top 10 two-man combos with 90+ minutes together:

1. THJ+WCS: +13.8
   
2. Maxi+Luka: +10.2
   
3. Luka+WCS: +9.8
   
4. JJ+WCS: +9.6
   
5. Luka+JG: +7.9
   
6. Luka+JB: +6.9
   
7. Luka+THJ: +5.1
   
8. DFS+Maxi: +4.2
   
9. JB+WCS: +4.1
   
10. JR+Maxi: +3.6
    

NOTE: Luka+KP are +0.8


Here are the 10 worst 2-man combos with 90+ minutes together:

1. DP+DFS: -14.8
   
2. TB+WI: -14.5
   
3. Luka+WI: -11.0
   
4. JJ+JB: -7.7
   
5. DP+JR: -7.4
   
6. WCS+WI: -7.3
   
7. JJ+WI: -7.1
   
8. TB+JB: -6.3
   
9. THJ+WI: -6.2
   
10. THJ+KP: -5.4
    

[Kammrath]

Here are some three point shooting stats at the quarter mark for the whole TEAM:

• 34.5% on catch and shoot
  
• 30.3% on pull-up
  
• 34.0% on wide-open
  
• 34.0% on open
  
• 26.5% on tight coverage
  
• 37.2% in WINS
  
• 29.6% in LOSSES
  

[Kammrath]

It can be dangerous to make too many conclusions from 18 games of on/off numbers but I think it is safe to say at least two things:

1) It might be time to put the Wes Iwundu experiment to bed. Green should get all his minutes IMO.

2) The WCS experiment should continue in some regard. No question he hasn't been too good individually the last few games, but the team seems to find a way to succeed when he plays and that is the most important.

[KillerLeft]

[*]37.2% in WINS
[*]29.6% in LOSSES

[*]
Debate over. 

There are many issues with the team, but every offensive struggle, especially those involving Luka and the pick and roll, will improve dramatically when the opposing team is forced to defend the corners and/or the wings.

[Kammrath]

Here is the three point shooting LAST year (2019-20) for comparison:

• 39.2% in WINS
  
• 33.4% in LOSSES
  

[cow]

[KillerLeft]

I'd agree if it was Richardson being left open and throwing up bricks, but it's DFS and KP who have been most disappointing relative to last season. Or worse, the Iwundu/Green/Johnson trio of temporary scrub corner replacements.

...not that I mean this point as a ringing endorsement of Richardson's shooting, tbh.

[omahen]

Not sure. Burke is a very decent replacement, his stats are very similar to Curry. Luka, KP and DFS are showing a drop from last season. With him shooting so badly it is just the same if we put another C in the lineup. Perhaps at least defense will be better.

[cow]

I'd agree if it was Richardson being left open and throwing up bricks, but it's DFS and KP who have been most disappointing relative to last season. Or worse, the Iwundu/Green/Johnson trio of temporary scrub corner replacements.

...not that I mean this point as a ringing endorsement of Richardson's shooting, tbh.

He could create his own shot and improved spacing on the floor because defenders had to respect his gravity.


It might be too early to call it a bad trade but I didn't like it when it happened and my opinion certainly hasn't improved.

[Kammrath]

It's not missing Curry (though that isn't helping), it is these heavy minutes guys taking 27.8 3PA per game collectively and shooting...

JR: 31.4%
DFS: 30.6%
KP: 29.4%
JJ: 29.2%
Luka: 28.5%
DP: 20.0%

[cow]

Need to figure out a way to shift some of those 3PA to JB and THJ.

[omahen]

Need to figure out a way to shift some of those 3PA to JB and THJ.

 It would require a huge change of the way Mavs are playing. As it is now, they are basically playing 4 on 5 offense. 

As for KP - I am not sure why he isn't moving more on the offense. Or others too, actually. It's not like Luka doesn't pass. KP is way more dangerous when he gets that half a step advantage with off ball movement. But mostly is just 4 guys standing around watching Luka instead of one or two would try cutting when defense is focused on Luka.

[Kammrath]

This year (2020-21)...

Open 3PA per game: 15.2
Wide-Open 3PA per game: 17.5


Last year (2019-20)...

Open 3PA per game: 17.0
Wide-Open 3PA per game: 19.4


So the Mavs are still getting a lot of good looks, but not as many....but maybe because guys are being gun-shy because of the horrible shooting...?

[cow]

 It would require a huge change of the way Mavs are playing. As it is now, they are basically playing 4 on 5 offense. 

As for KP - I am not sure why he isn't moving more on the offense. Or others too, actually. It's not like Luka doesn't pass. KP is way more dangerous when he gets that half a step advantage with off ball movement. But mostly is just 4 guys standing around watching Luka instead of one or two would try cutting when defense is focused on Luka.

I'm not sure if it is the players or the game plan but I'm starting to question the offensive strategy.  I couldn't agree more about your KP half a step a comment and it's why I'm leaning towards the team strategy as the issue.  There has to be a way to put KP and others in better positions to succeed on that end of the floor.

[burekemde]

KP is way more dangerous when he gets that half a step advantage with off ball movement. But mostly is just 4 guys standing around watching Luka instead of one or two would try cutting when defense is focused on Luka.

Great observation. We need more of this.


In fact, JJ to me seems very good at these cuts, and has been great at this. Sometimes cutting even too much when he could have had the 3, but at very least he tries to find the creases, and there are plenty with Luka running the show.

KP needs to do this a lot more, and same with several other players.

In general we need more off ball plays designed.

[cow]

This year (2020-21)...

Open 3PA per game: 15.2
Wide-Open 3PA per game: 17.5


Last year (2019-20)...

Open 3PA per game: 17.0
Wide-Open 3PA per game: 19.4


So the Mavs are still getting a lot of good looks, but not as many....but maybe because guys are being gun-shy because of the horrible shooting...?

The guys I've noticed being gun shy (let's throw Terry out of the conversation) are Johnson and Powell.   Maybe Brunson to a much lesser extent but he's usually passing up the three for a drive.  /eye test.