Game 3: Dallas Mavericks (1-1) vs San Antonio Spurs (0-2) | 7:00 CST

[cow]

I'm so, so interested in seeing how they even envision Aldama fitting in with this team. The forward rotation feels congested to me already, and that's before Aldama or Biberovic even suiting up yet. I think it's reasonable to wonder whether Aldma would've gotten all of the Cisse minutes and maybe some of Gafford's, so far, but Johnson is already not playing much (none at forward as far as I can tell, thank goodness) and I just can't imagine Aldama getting many forwards minutes for this team. They'd have to come from PJW, and he has been shooting pretty well to start the season.

My guess is the plan is to let the TDL sort a lot of these concerns out.

[KillerLeft]

My guess is the plan is to let the TDL sort a lot of these concerns out.

You'd think it has to be, but many of us assumed the same about the summer. I STILL think they wanted to make some moves that didn't happen over the summer, which leads me to believe their asking price for some of these dudes isn't reasonable, so...yeah, I can't wait to see how it pans out.

[SkenfromLMF]

I am afraid the biggest hurdle in sorting things out at the TDL is that the most tradable pieces Dallas has are not easily traded in the 1-for-1 category. You certainly do not want to deal Irving for bad salary unless you are getting premium draft compensation, but even then we are looking at a probable return of multiple pieces. That is less true with Gafford, PJ, and Martin but it is by no means easy to find a trade fit. The hurdle is having to cut players in season to make room for the trades to work, and it was apparently an issue as we finished out the summer (see Thompson, Klay)

[Jym]

I'm so, so interested in seeing how they even envision Aldama fitting in with this team. The forward rotation feels congested to me already, and that's before Aldama or Biberovic even suiting up yet. I think it's reasonable to wonder whether Aldma would've gotten all of the Cisse minutes and maybe some of Gafford's, so far, but Johnson is already not playing much (none at forward as far as I can tell, thank goodness) and I just can't imagine Aldama getting many forwards minutes for this team. They'd have to come from PJW, and he has been shooting pretty well to start the season.

Im still confused on that trade. Power forward was the one position where we were absolutely set and we traded like 75% of our remaining tradable picks for another one 
I figured a PJ trade was gonna follow immediately

[mvossman]

Im still confused on that trade. Power forward was the one position where we were absolutely set and we traded like 75% of our remaining tradable picks for another one 
I figured a PJ trade was gonna follow immediately

Agreed (although that trade included Sasser and Tarik so maybe you can attribute some of the asset cost to them).  It feels like Schmitz really liked the player and could get him for a reasonable price, regardless of fit.  I have voiced concerns in the offseason about potential roster minutes crunch when healthy.  The best case scenario is the kids ramp up fast and get plenty of playing time, but that means the vets are going to lose minutes and likely value.  Masai has a history of hanging onto players too long including overpaying extensions and we have already seen some of that with Naji.

[cow]

You'd think it has to be, but many of us assumed the same about the summer. I STILL think they wanted to make some moves that didn't happen over the summer, which leads me to believe their asking price for some of these dudes isn't reasonable, so...yeah, I can't wait to see how it pans out.

I think they wanted to make deals this summer too, but I don't think the asks are unreasonable, but rather this iteration of the MBT wasn't going to do a fire sale.  There is probably more urgency at the TDL anyway as teams have figured out what they are and if they think they have a reasonable shot at contending. Even then, I'm not sure we'll be in a rush to make moves unless we can extract value. But maybe that's me be over optimistic of leadership...lord knows that bit me with the Cowboys this season.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Agree with this, but I would also go the other way.  If the answer is "yes" that does not mean they think he is worth a long term 17m contract yet.  It could be they have seen enough to think he might get there and be worth a little overpay in the short term to get another year look.  The MLE is projected to start at a little over 16M next year.

Let’s talk a little about what a little overpay might look like and what it buys you.  For argument sake, say the team thinks, based on what it has seen, that ZR might get $12-$13mm next summer if free.  I think the $4-$5mm difference between that and his 4th year option probably qualifies as a little overpay - right?  I mean, if he’s only worth $5-$6mm, an extra $11-$12mm isn’t so little and FG is probably right.

But, if the overpay is more in the $4-$5mm range then you are not only buying restricted free agency in the summer of 2028, you are buying insurance that you didn’t blow it in the summer of 2027.  If you pass on his option now, ZR becomes fully unrestricted this summer.  But, it is worse than that.  Dallas is prevented from paying him more than his option value this summer.  So, if he has a good month (or even a good playoff series as we’ve seen happen in the past), we could be locked out of the bidding beyond a certain point.  There are a fairly large number of teams projected to have cap room this summer.  It would be such a Cuban type move to lock ourselves out of the bidding on someone we created the value for over the risk of overpaying by a few million in a season where our finances aren’t really that tight.

[KillerLeft]

Im still confused on that trade. Power forward was the one position where we were absolutely set and we traded like 75% of our remaining tradable picks for another one 
I figured a PJ trade was gonna follow immediately

Like I said at the time - makes more sense if they view him as more of a stretch 5. Still early, but the experimentation going on leads me to expect that they do.

[F Gump]

Let’s talk a little about what a little overpay might look like and what it buys you.  For argument sake, say the team thinks, based on what it has seen, that ZR might get $12-$13mm next summer if free.  I think the $4-$5mm difference between that and his 4th year option probably qualifies as a little overpay - right?  I mean, if he’s only worth $5-$6mm, an extra $11-$12mm isn’t so little and FG is probably right.

But, if the overpay is more in the $4-$5mm range then you are not only buying restricted free agency in the summer of 2028, you are buying insurance that you didn’t blow it in the summer of 2027.  If you pass on his option now, ZR becomes fully unrestricted this summer.  But, it is worse than that.  Dallas is prevented from paying him more than his option value this summer.  So, if he has a good month (or even a good playoff series as we’ve seen happen in the past), we could be locked out of the bidding beyond a certain point.  There are a fairly large number of teams projected to have cap room this summer.  It would be such a Cuban type move to lock ourselves out of the bidding on someone we created the value for over the risk of overpaying by a few million in a season where our finances aren’t really that tight.

I understand your thinking. It was the sort of approach that made all the sense in the world for years, and until the hard caps and the punitive aprons, it was almost a no-brainer for a team to "invest in the possibility" and throw money around in situations like this. 

But I have questioned it being done in this situation because I think there is a huge amount of uncertainty as to ZR's trajectory as a player (and, importantly, his financial trajectory). In particular, the idea that you can't sign him to a number bigger than 17.4M only matters when he might get pursuers for a bigger contract. What's the chance of that happening, we have to ask? And the fact is, we aren't sure. It depends. 

But so far, it looks very unlikely to me. While he does contribute on the defensive end and with rebounding to some degree, he gives it all back with incredibly abysmal shooting (30% overall for the year, and 17% on 3s). With production like that, it's hard to imagine teams lining up to pay him big money once he's available. And let's keep in mind that the defense-only guy does have value, but he's not nearly as in demand - and won't get nearly as big salary offers - as the guy who scores efficiently.

I won't argue ZR can't turn into a very good player, perhaps, but how good? And what would that cost, to replace?

I'm not sure we want to be OBLIGATED to pay him 17.4M next season no matter what. The idea that "well, you can always trade him, no biggie if it doesn't work out" is not realistic. Heck, they've gone down that path over and over with even smaller contracts in recent years, and the way it eventually plays out is that if YOU don't want to pay him that much, other teams usually won't want to have to pay him either, so you end up stuck with him OR you have to add assets to get another team to take him. Today's overpay "just for a year" merely buys you an invite to the very issue the following year, and the one after that, and the one after that - contracts are always going to be competitive. Even RFA's are not exempt anymore, because dollars are tight for almost everyone.

Will some team have some abundant money to spend in free agency next summer? Sure. That's always true. But it's also true that the bigger money goes fast to only a few, and unless a player is the best available, they wind up in the big batch of players that get leftovers and tight squeezes and fairly close to what they should get (sometimes even less). A $10-12M player isn't likely to have teams trying to spend $20M on him. 

To me, this is the Mavs' next Hardy or Josh Green decision. How much do you commit to, and when, to keep your younger guy away from bidders? Do you pay extra to ensure you keep him? We have no track record for how Masai does these things, but I'm very wary of the value of overpaying so we won't have to compete, which I see as the proposition for the Mavs here at the 17M+ level.

I will also add that a 6-8M overpay would have real roster-building consequences. There are going to be a LOT of mouths to feed in the summer. They won't pay tax. Can they get the same contribution for much less. Things like that should come into play.

I don't have any sense of how the Mavs are going to play this, but to me it sure feels so far like he's a below-MLE player (like the DJJ, Naji, etc group when the Mavs signed them). We'll see soon what they do.

[vfromlmf]

"While he does contribute on the defensive end and with rebounding to some degree, he gives it all back with incredibly abysmal shooting (30% overall for the year, and 17% on 3s). With production like that, it's hard to imagine teams lining up to pay him big money once he's available."

Strong disagree. You can't reasonably call out shooting percentages after 4 games but you can easily see ZR is already more impactful than Max. ZR is 20 years old and averaging 30 minutes per game. For reference Hardy never had a four game run averaging 30 min in his career.

Look, ZR has a lot to work on but you can't waste that kind of talent by not picking up his option. He's showing elite defensive traits and can shoot. He's not a star but $17M isn't star money. I love Max but he's just a shooter. If yuo're worried about money, just let Max go.

[F Gump]

"While he does contribute on the defensive end and with rebounding to some degree, he gives it all back with incredibly abysmal shooting (30% overall for the year, and 17% on 3s). With production like that, it's hard to imagine teams lining up to pay him big money once he's available."

Strong disagree. You can't reasonably call out shooting percentages after 4 games but you can easily see ZR is already more impactful than Max. ZR is 20 years old and averaging 30 minutes per game. For reference Hardy never had a four game run averaging 30 min in his career.

Look, ZR has a lot to work on but you can't waste that kind of talent by not picking up his option. He's showing elite defensive traits and can shoot. He's not a star but $17M isn't star money. I love Max but he's just a shooter. If yuo're worried about money, just let Max go.

Your opinion is different than mine overall, fair enough. 

But the exercise-the-option-or-not question is not "is ZR better than Max"? It's whether ZR himself is going to be worth 17.4M of your cap, or whether that's going to be an ugly undesirable number clogging the cap and preventing needed roster-building moves elsewhere. 

It's clear you think that's a yes. And maybe that's a good call. 

I trust you also agree that the abysmal (not even poor, but truly horrendous) shooting is a real issue if it's not fixable. I'm leery of just ignoring that as a big obstacle and assuming the fix is sure to happen (and happen soon enough to make a diff in Dallas - players move around, and about all that's realistic to plan on is what you get now, plus a year or three). The shooting experts in Mavs HQ have to figure it out quickly and make a call. If they do exercise that option, I will have to assume they think he can improve greatly on offense this year from where he is. 

But if they see him staying about as is? I would say no thanks on that 17.4M option, and take my chances in free agency. 

I certainly recognize the Mavs will also have financial choices to make with Max too. (And many others!) There's no money to waste. Every decision has a ripple effect throughout the roster. 

One more thing I keep having to repeat because you seem to ignore it. If the Mavs decline the option, it doesn't mean ZR is (necessarily) out of their future plans. It just means he is out of their plans for 17.4M in 2027-28. But they can still sign him with their Bird rights to a smaller more suitable number to give more years with him to work to develop what's missing in his game, without paying over-the-moon money while taking that path. The reality for him was that ATL was going to decline the option, which is why they gave him away rather than deal with it, and the Mavs picking up that HUGE option has never been a given for him. He's on an extended tryout regardless.

[DL2RimRocker]

ZR reminds me a little bit of Corey Brewer. A high draft pick who was long, tall (6'9) and athletic but never developed a shot and was somewhat of a disappointment considering his draft hype. I think ZR could easily go in a similar direction if he doesn't develop a consistent shot.

[FireNicoHarrison]

ZR reminds me a little bit of Corey Brewer. A high draft pick who was long, tall (6'9) and athletic but never developed a shot and was somewhat of a disappointment considering his draft hype. I think ZR could easily go in a similar direction if he doesn't develop a consistent shot.

Brewer was a scrub, Just a energy guy from the bench.

i hope Risacher will become a solid starter for us.

[michaeltex]

I trust you also agree that the abysmal (not even poor, but truly horrendous) shooting is a real issue if it's not fixable. I'm leery of just ignoring that as a big obstacle and assuming the fix is sure to happen (and happen soon enough to make a diff in Dallas - players move around, and about all that's realistic to plan on is what you get now, plus a year or three). The shooting experts in Mavs HQ have to figure it out quickly and make a call. If they do exercise that option, I will have to assume they think he can improve greatly on offense this year from where he is. 

This is a key issue. Even if he's an all NBA level defender, not having some type of shot reliability means the offense ends up playing 4 on 5 as defenses leave him out of their rotation.

[vfromlmf]

I have no idea why some people seem to think ZR can't shoot.

Max shot 41% from the field and 36.6% on threes his first year in Dallas.

ZR shot 45.5% from the field and 36.8% on threes last year in Atlanta.

ZR will be fine. He's already getting more minutes than Max and closing games.

Meanwhile take a look at Herb Jones offensive numbers. Or Derek Jones Jr. Or Jaden McDaniels at a similar age. JMcD just signed a $40M extension. ZR isn't at that level yet but by all accounts he's a good character, tireless worker who is still developing. It would be insane to not pick up his $17M option. $17M isn't an overpay for a starting wing.

[vfromlmf]

I have no idea why some people seem to think ZR can't shoot.

Max shot 41% from the field and 36.6% on threes his first year in Dallas.

ZR shot 45.5% from the field and 36.8% on threes last year in Atlanta.

ZR will be fine. He's already getting more minutes than Max and closing games.

Meanwhile take a look at Herb Jones offensive numbers. Or Derek Jones Jr. Or Jaden McDaniels at a similar age. JMcD just signed a $40M extension. ZR isn't at that level yet but by all accounts he's a good character, tireless worker who is still developing. It would be insane to not pick up his $17M option. $17M isn't an overpay for a starting wing.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Because he averages 30% from the field and 17% from the arc... in PO those stats will be a big problem.

[vfromlmf]

Because he averages 30% from the field and 17% from the arc... in PO those stats will be a big problem.

It's FOUR games! 

It's like saying, "in two thirds of Kyrie's games he is a 20% three point shooter." 3 out of 15 is abysmal! That kind of streaky shooting will ruin this team.

[Chicagojk]

Zach was 2-13 last night.  I think most of his shots were solid looks.    His first shot of the night against Miami was the one he shouldn't do much of imo.  He dribbled into the lane and got stuck and then tried a turnaround jumper that got blocked.    After that he had a rebound at the rim that he missed and a few cuts/drives at the rim that he couldn't finish.   He should have 4-6 points off these looks.   He got mostly good looks from three.   They still seem really rushed.    Being rushed is one thing, not having your feet aligned is another.  It seems to happen a lot.   

I think he is best used playing with Flagg and 1-2 other creators where he can space the floor and cut when needed.   I think that is the role he needs to master right now.

[FireNicoHarrison]

It's FOUR games! 

It's like saying, "in two thirds of Kyrie's games he is a 20% three point shooter." 3 out of 15 is abysmal! That kind of streaky shooting will ruin this team.

If it's just a stretch i'm happy, we will see...