Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[HoosierDaddyKid]

The Nuggets are toast if you ask me. They're capped out. They'll receive an unprotected 2031 1st from Cleveland and a 2032 2nd from the Kings. They didn't have a 1st until this trade. It's a shame one of the best players in the game will have to play with a flawed roster. They gave Christian Braun a 5/125-year deal when clearly it should have gone to Watson. I wonder if they tried to trade Braun and found no takers?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Clippers can give Mathurin some 20 mil and stay under the first apron

Or take on Gafford in a deal for Mathurin and be about $2.2mm under. Beal and Strus kind of cover the positional need.
BTW, 9/1 is the guarantee date for Cisse's first $1.09mm.

[omahen]

Kuminga running out of options now unless something unexpected appears. Looks like he can take a one year vet min prove it deal (probably a bunch of options for that available) or whatever 3 year deal he can get from Lakers (probably not more than 15 per). Minny would need him but they don't have (much) more than vet min available under the second apron. Atlanta has too many players already and are not far below the tax. Cleveland is probably out now, unless Harden takes a really big pay cut.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Kuminga running out of options now unless something unexpected appears. Looks like he can take a one year vet min prove it deal (probably a bunch of options for that available) or whatever 3 year deal he can get from Lakers (probably not more than 15 per). Minny would need him but they don't have (much) more than vet min available under the second apron. Atlanta has too many players already and are not far below the tax. Cleveland is probably out now, unless Harden takes a really big pay cut.

I also think Cleveland is out. Watson can play SF and PF.

[KillerLeft]

This might be a super dumb question, but...are we 100% sure Cleveland is going to pay Harden moving forward?

[F Gump]

Or take on Gafford in a deal for Mathurin and be about $2.2mm under.  Beal and Strus kind of cover the positional need.
BTW, 9/1 is the guarantee date for Cisse's first $1.09mm.

I don't think there's any realistic chance the Mavs are hoping to trade Gaff. The likelihood that Lively's availability is going to be iffy makes Gaff's veteran presence a key piece. imo

Cisse's 9/1 date is interesting (as is the 10/1 full gtee date), but I don't think either will be a real consideration all that much to them. I think 9/1 will pass without notice in Mavs HQ. That's because I believe they classify him as easy to either give away at any time (and perhaps get a SRP in return) or waive and see him claimed. In either scenario it ends up the same as if they waive before 9/1, with no payroll or cap cost, so they can wait all the way to opening day if they wish before deciding on how to resolve the 16th man. And ultimately they may decide the best choice is to keep him, who knows.

[F Gump]

Kuminga running out of options now unless something unexpected appears. Looks like he can take a one year vet min prove it deal (probably a bunch of options for that available) or whatever 3 year deal he can get from Lakers (probably not more than 15 per). Minny would need him but they don't have (much) more than vet min available under the second apron. Atlanta has too many players already and are not far below the tax. Cleveland is probably out now, unless Harden takes a really big pay cut.

Kuminga looks to be headed to min salary deal, but if so it certainly opens the door to Minn and Cle who seem to have remaining roster spots, which have to pay min salary to be filled. 

The bigger question for him is fit -- not just salary, or even available role, but the bigger question of what role he would embrace. He's in the weird NBA place where he wants to be a featured player on a good team, but isn't quite that guy, and the role (with its pay level) that he could be good at aren't what he wants.

[F Gump]

This might be a super dumb question, but...are we 100% sure Cleveland is going to pay Harden moving forward?

Yes, I think its a lock. He's working WITH them, and imo their moves are being made with an eye on the right sized salary slot being left for him.

[Mavs2021]

The Nuggets are toast if you ask me. They're capped out. They'll receive an unprotected 2031 1st from Cleveland and a 2032 2nd from the Kings. They didn't have a 1st until this trade.  It's a shame one of the best players in the game will have to play with a flawed roster.

Don´t say that. Kyrie is a better Murray, Cooper is a better Gordon and once we get the 3rd Porter brother Luka it looks pretty tasty to me. 

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Grade for Cavaliers: B

Look at just about any statistic and chances are that Watson posted a career-best mark last season. It wasn't just that the 23-year-old forward averaged career highs in points, rebounds and assists; he also made 41% of his 3-pointers on a career-high volume and pulled off the rare feat of increasing his usage rate and true shooting percentage by large margins simultaneously.

In other words, Watson got many more opportunities last season, and he made the most of them.

The former No. 30 pick has always had potential, particularly on the defensive end, but he wasn't consistent or productive enough on offense to earn more playing time. In his playoff career, Watson has averaged only 10.4 minutes per game while receiving numerous DNPs.

That all changed last season. And although Watson didn't get the added opportunity to prove himself on the playoff stage because of a hamstring strain late in the year, he showed enough development in his breakout regular season -- as well as the potential for even more growth in the future -- to warrant a big raise in restricted free agency.

By itself, this is a perfectly reasonable new contract for a player with his youth and skill set. Before the offseason began, ESPN's Bobby Marks wrote that he'd offer Watson a four-year, $90 million deal, which is almost exactly what Cleveland ended up giving him.

Because Watson was a restricted free agent and Cleveland faced a financial strain, however, the Cavaliers couldn't sign Watson outright; instead, they needed to sacrifice Strus and a future unprotected first-round pick in the process.

On one hand, that cost is much more palatable than, say, what the Lakers paid in a similar trade for restricted free agent Walker Kessler earlier this summer.

But Strus was a valuable player for Cleveland, as both a proven 3-point shooter (37% in his career and with the Cavaliers) and solid defender. And that far-off future first-round pick could be valuable down the line, as well as hamper the Cavaliers' ability to make other trades in the years to come. (The Jazz already control their 2027, 2028 and 2029 firsts from the Donovan Mitchell blockbuster.)

Because of those extra considerations, this isn't a slam dunk A-plus deal for Cleveland; in a vacuum, Strus might even be a more valuable player than Watson right now. But it's easy to see -- and believe in -- the bet that the Cavaliers are making with this trade: that Watson provides much more upside than Strus, and that he's the wing who can finally bridge the positional gap between the Cavaliers' two All-Star guards and their two All-Star bigs.

In recent seasons, Cleveland has invested in and cycled through Strus, De'Andre Hunter, Caris LeVert, Dean Wade and Isaac Okoro, among others, in an effort to fill that void. None of those options truly succeeded. Now it's Watson's turn to try.

Grade for Nuggets: D

Given the extreme cost of the Nuggets roster that's already in place -- they're currently the only team in the second apron -- it's understandable why they didn't feel comfortable retaining Watson at such a price.

But letting him walk is a bitter pill to swallow for a Denver team that needed his youth and upside. The Nuggets just lost a key player, but they're a win-now team, with their top four players all entering their late primes: Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon will be 31 years old next season, Cameron Johnson will be 30 and Jamal Murray will be 29.

Moreover, the Nuggets have always been a thin team in the Jokic era, and they look even thinner following a quiet offseason. Of their top eight scorers last year, three have left the team this summer: Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas. And the only players they've brought in as replacements are Marvin Bagley III -- a questionable fit to follow Valanciunas as Jokic's backup -- and EuroLeague wing Alpha Diallo.

In the bigger picture, losing Watson means the Nuggets don't get to reap the long-term rewards of developing him from a raw reserve into a bona fide contributor. Amid a host of failed draft picks in the 25-40 range over the last half-decade -- Jalen Pickett, Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson, Bones Hyland -- Watson was the one standout, and Denver clearly missed his two-way ability in its shocking playoff loss to the injury-ravaged Minnesota Timberwolves last spring.

But now the Cavaliers will benefit, because they were able to create enough financial wiggle room to dip below the second apron and add Watson, while the Nuggets were not.

The Nuggets' draft pick compensation is sufficiently enticing that this deal isn't an unmitigated disaster. Now the Nuggets, who didn't have any tradeable firsts before Wednesday, can theoretically use this unprotected Cavaliers pick to trade for a different player.

But will that player be better than Watson, who provided perimeter defense and athleticism otherwise lacking on the Nuggets' roster? And will that player fit any better into Denver's financial picture?

Depending on what they do with this pick, the Nuggets' front office could make this grade look silly in the coming months. But for now, it seems like they would have just been better off re-signing Watson.

Grade for Clippers: A-

Strus is signed for $16.6 million in 2026-27 before becoming a free agent next summer. That amount fits neatly onto the Clippers' books while keeping them below the tax line.

The Clippers are acquiring Strus on a short-term commitment, almost for free. Their only cost to add a proven 3-and-D veteran with ample playoff experience is a second-round pick they acquired from Philadelphia last month, in order to take on Johni Broome's salary.

That's a nice bit of business for the Clippers, even if it's still unclear where they fit into the Western Conference pecking order, or if they have any real ambitions for the 2026-27 season if the Kawhi Leonard trade goes through. If so, the Clippers' best course of action could be hoping they're able to re-trade Strus at the deadline for more draft compensation than the mere second-round pick with which they're parting in this deal.

Grade for Wizards: C+

The Wizards' angle in this deal is the least compelling, as they're getting a second-round pick and a minor upgrade at the guard position via Mann, who first joined the Cavaliers last week in a trade for Dennis Schroder.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Marc Stein: Reported on Sunday night that, according to one source briefed on the process, James Harden’s long-awaited new deal with the Cavaliers would be signed “soon-ish.” Cleveland can finally proceed with finalizing Harden’s pact after its Schröder/Strus/Watson five-teamer is official.

x.com

[omahen]

After sleeping a bit on the Watson deal. Watson signed a deal that was in a range of what Cam Johnson is getting. Teams didn't have problems trading useful players on expiring deals for air to reduce their salaries this summer. OKC got a bunch of second rounders for three of their rotation players in separate deals. Cleveland got a SRP for Strus in this deal, although it was obvious to everyone that Cleveland needs to dump salary. Cleveland also traded a lesser player in Schroeder for half the money without paying any assets. If we neglect the gazillion of possible options and narrow it down a bit, Denvers choice was:
- Cam Johnson + draft assets (FRP and SRP) from Watson deal or
- Watson (assuming they would send Cam somewhere for air with no assets involved in this scenario). One could even think that they could get some at least minor draft assets for Cam Johnson based on OKC and Cleveland transactions

I guess the deal gives them more flexibility, but not that much, really. Unless they strike with great follow up deals, their direction doesn't look great at all. They lost Val, THJ and now Watson and their only reinforcement is a vet min Bagley. And they are still over the second apron a bit.

[DanSchwartzgan]

After sleeping a bit on the Watson deal. Watson signed a deal that was in a range of what Cam Johnson is getting. Teams didn't have problems trading useful players on expiring deals for air to reduce their salaries this summer. OKC got a bunch of second rounders for three of their rotation players in separate deals. Cleveland got a SRP for Strus in this deal, although it was obvious to everyone that Cleveland needs to dump salary. Cleveland also traded a lesser player in Schroeder for half the money without paying any assets. If we neglect the gazillion of possible options and narrow it down a bit, Denvers choice was:
- Cam Johnson + draft assets (FRP and SRP) from Watson deal or
- Watson (assuming they would send Cam somewhere for air with no assets involved in this scenario). One could even think that they could get some at least minor draft assets for Cam Johnson based on OKC and Cleveland transactions

I guess the deal gives them more flexibility, but not that much, really. Unless they strike with great follow up deals, their direction doesn't look great at all. They lost Val, THJ and now Watson and their only reinforcement is a vet min Bagley. And they are still over the second apron a bit.

It is even worse if you take apron math into consideration.  If Denver had done as you suggest, the difference between what Cam makes next season and what Watson signed for is enough to get Denver back under the 2nd apron.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't think there's any realistic chance the Mavs are hoping to trade Gaff. The likelihood that Lively's availability is going to be iffy makes Gaff's veteran presence a key piece. imo

Maybe.  That is certainly one school of thought.

The other is that the team has been trying to trade Gafford for some time now - even knowing Lively's situation. One of those overtures would have netted Mathurin before Indy did the deal with LAC instead.

Isaac on Locked-On Mav's has been on quite a roll this offseason and he's been pushing the idea that Gafford won't be here to start the season pretty hard.  You are right that much depends on the outlook for Lively.  But, if you think he'll be here for even the back half of the season, the question becomes do you have enough to get by until then.  Between Morez, Cisse and Aldama the answer is probably yes.  In fact, it is hard to find minutes for Morez otherwise.  So, I'm not in the camp that Gafford will be gone.  But, I'm certainly not ruling it out based on Lively's availability.  For me the question is always about what is best for the team as Cooper matures versus what's good for the team in November and December.

[Chicagojk]

I thought Denver would eventually wind up with Derrick Jones and some kind of draft equity for Watson. I thought it made some sense. Not ideal but at least gives them a comparable player who is older but also can help them continue winning.

I have no idea what type of player Watson grows into. I can see both outcomes of really good starter to overpaid guy. Although for a team that needs youth this is not a good outcome for Denver. Especially if they add another older player in DeRozan.

Denver is still in the 3-6 in the west. Like LAL you just wonder if that is their high point the next few years. Their top three are still great but you have to wonder if they ever will be healthy for a long stretch. With no young, cheap players you wonder how they really withstand a long regular season. It already felt their stars had trouble getting up for the regular season grind already last year.

I actually think Kuminga is an intersting piece left. It seems like most teams fans are not crazy about him. They may be right. Although if it came down to Minny vs Lakers for him that is pretty intersting. Both are in the 3-6 range in the west and both have huge needs at PF. While Kuminga may have warts, I think both situations (money aside) would be good for him.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

This might be a super dumb question, but...are we 100% sure Cleveland is going to pay Harden moving forward?

about 99% sure

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Isaac on Locked-On Mav's has been on quite a role this offseason and he's been pushing the idea that Gafford won't be here to start the season pretty hard.  

Yeah, he stated with some certainty that the Mavs have been shopping Gafford hard all summer.  Just haven't found any takers.

[SleepingHero]

Denver trading Peyton Watson to Cavs for a FRP and a SRP, Cavs sending Strus to Clippers for nothing. Watson gets 88 mil 4 year deal. Great deal for Cavs, imho. Denver return was meh and it looks like they will be (much) worse next season. I am surprised Clippers didn't get something more for eating Strus.

Cavs really do make out well here, but that is their last tradeable FRP.

They are locked into this roster until Mitchell asks out.

[SleepingHero]

Maybe.  That is certainly one school of thought.

The other is that the team has been trying to trade Gafford for some time now - even knowing Lively's situation. One of those overtures would have netted Mathurin before Indy did the deal with LAC instead.

Isaac on Locked-On Mav's has been on quite a roll this offseason and he's been pushing the idea that Gafford won't be here to start the season pretty hard.  You are right that much depends on the outlook for Lively.  But, if you think he'll be here for even the back half of the season, the question becomes do you have enough to get by until then.  Between Morez, Cisse and Aldama the answer is probably yes.  In fact, it is hard to find minutes for Morez otherwise.  So, I'm not in the camp that Gafford will be gone.  But, I'm certainly not ruling it out based on Lively's availability.  For me the question is always about what is best for the team as Cooper matures versus what's good for the team in November and December.

I think with this recent Strus trade, the Clippers are probably even more likely to want to move off of Mathurin. 

Gafford+Klay 3 teamer where Gafford heads to LAC and Klay to Miami just makes sense. 

It does round out the roster and fixes the jam.

Kyrie/Sasser/Larrea
Mathurin/Christie/Tarik
Flagg/Naji/Risacher/Martin
PJ/Morez/Aldama/
Lively/Aldama/Cisse


Call me greedy but I'd still rather keep Gafford and send out Martin although I don't see the Clippers being interested whatsoever.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I think with this recent Strus trade, the Clippers are probably even more likely to want to move off of Mathurin. 

Gafford+Klay 3 teamer where Gafford heads to LAC and Klay to Miami just makes sense. 

It does round out the roster and fixes the jam.

Kyrie/Sasser/Larrea
Mathurin/Christie/Tarik
Flagg/Naji/Risacher/Martin
PJ/Morez/Aldama/
Lively/Aldama/Cisse


Call me greedy but I'd still rather keep Gafford and send out Martin although I don't see the Clippers being interested whatsoever.

You are greedy!

One note, Miami would have to send out salary in the three-way.  I've tried to play around with making the LAC part of this bigger (I like Baba Miller), but not finding things that would be big enough for LAC to take back what Miami would have to sell to take in Klay at his full salary.  

I think if we add another guard like Mathurin we would then just buy out Klay.  The roster makes much more sense at that point.  We can complain that we didn't get anything in return, but we have no real assurance that there is any return out there to give up.