MAVS NEWS:

[F Gump]

Don’t be so harsh - all your approximated deadlines are end of October, so mine is in the same ballpark considering it’s the beginning of August… I think you try to gather as much intel and personal insights as possible in the next weeks to get an idea if he’s worth extending before his first game for us or if it’s better to wait and see.

On Risacher, the deadline is different. So is the process and the situation. That's why I exclude him from "perhaps in August" category and instead see him as in a "very very unlikely until late October" category.

Sure, they might be in some type of info-gathering mode, but imo NOT in decision-making mode until we get into the regular season. For him it's an Oct 31 deadline, after regular season begins, and I think they will want to get all the data points they can before making a call on the TO for 2027-28. Furthermore, it's a unilateral decision with him, with no negotiation in the equation, so they can safely wait until the very last day before making a call.

OTOH the mid-Oct deadlines (Lively and Sasser) preclude any games that count. That means nothing is likely to change on their assessment, so might as well start working toward a decision. Lively might not even be playing at all by then, and they won't get to see how Sasser fits in a real game. Those are also NEGOTIATED decisions, rather than team choices, which can take time. So I can see them exploring those possibilities now and perhaps doing something (and reportedly, discussions on at least Lively has already been started.)

[Chicagojk]

Risacher is #10.   That was Brandon Williams # last year.    I think Coop, Max and PJ are in the video as well.

https://x.com/dallasmavs/status/2084338515605946845

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Apparently Seva is staying in Russia next year.  I was hoping he would be in a better league in Europe.

https://x.com/All_Things_Mavs/status/208...9074089360

damn, that sucks

[DallasMaverick]

Risacher is #10.   That was Brandon Williams # last year.    I think Coop, Max and PJ are in the video as well.

https://x.com/dallasmavs/status/2084338515605946845

I’d like to predict that BWill won’t be back next year.

That is all.

[Smitty]

Apparently Seva is staying in Russia next year.  I was hoping he would be in a better league in Europe.

https://x.com/All_Things_Mavs/status/208...9074089360

So me and Gump were right? We need our flowers.

[Scott41theMavs]

So me and Gump were right? We need our flowers.

Even the best FOs can make significant errors.

[windjc]

Lamenting a dude who isn’t good enough to move the needle is an interesting choice.

[Scott41theMavs]

Lamenting a dude who isn’t good enough to move the needle is an interesting choice.

Vomit! See my response in the other thread.

[GATA]

Flagg towers over Rish. Looks like a legit 6’11, which is doom for the rest of the league

[Smitty]

@MavsFilmRoom
From the latest @TheSteinLine substack:

“Cooper Flagg's known fondness for Marshall after their first season together as teammates is believed to be among the factors that Dallas considered when awarding Marshall this new three-year deal”

Also stated: Masai Ujiri is said to be a fan of PJ Washington

https://marcstein.substack.com/p/late-night-nba-intel-for-the-first?r=3l2pn&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

[KillerLeft]

@MavsFilmRoom
From the latest @TheSteinLine substack:

“Cooper Flagg's known fondness for Marshall after their first season together as teammates is believed to be among the factors that Dallas considered when awarding Marshall this new three-year deal”

Also stated: Masai Ujiri is said to be a fan of PJ Washington

https://marcstein.substack.com/p/late-night-nba-intel-for-the-first?r=3l2pn&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

I hate to say this, and I know nobody is ready for anything remotely negative about Ujiri, whatsoever, but...

...this is what was wrong in Toronto. All he cared about was having a bunch of 6'7"-6'10" guys, regardless of position, skill set, synergy, whatever. In Toronto, he didn't care if they could shoot, really, which made it even worse. The way this summer started I thought he had figured that part of it out, but if all they're going to do is play the same guys who wouldn't even attempt to shoot last year, Flagg and Kyrie aren't going to magically have more space just because the coach acknowledged they need it (which any 5-year old who watched the team last year understood). 

Maybe there's a huge deal coming that will make this whole summer make sense, but it's starting to sink in for me that no such deal is coming. I'm still excited for the new front office and the coach, but...the smallest amount of "uh-oh" is creeping into my head.

[Smitty]

I hate to say this, and I know nobody is ready for anything remotely negative about Ujiri, whatsoever, but...

...this is what was wrong in Toronto. All he cared about was having a bunch of 6'7"-6'10" guys, regardless of position, skill set, synergy, whatever. In Toronto, he didn't care if they could shoot, really, which made it even worse. The way this summer started I thought he had figured that part of it out, but if all they're going to do is play the same guys who wouldn't even attempt to shoot last year, Flagg and Kyrie aren't going to magically have more space just because the coach acknowledged they need it (which any 5-year old who watched the team last year understood). 

Maybe there's a huge deal coming that will make this whole summer make sense, but it's starting to sink in for me that no such deal is coming. I'm still excited for the new front office and the coach, but...the smallest amount of "uh-oh" is creeping into my head.

I think you were right when you said the Mavs won't be very good this upcoming season. I think you were a little harsh with the "won't win 30 games" take, but nonetheless, this will be a transition of sorts. Proof of concept even. Throw a bunch of young "potential" guys at the wall and see what sticks.

I'm not in love with the Naji extension. I also don't think he'll be a Maverick for the duration of the contract. They have to know better than I do what his 'trade value' is around the league. Obviously, they were dialed in on his actual market value of ~$17m AAV. I think he'll get plenty of playing time here, so he shouldn't lose any actual 'trade value' in the next 6/12/18/24 months. The next big transaction cycle intervals.

I don't know when they will make an all-in type swing to pair with Flagg. Not even sure who that player might be. Or if they'll go that route... But they will have some decent sized contracts, attached to some pretty decent players, that will help with that cause... If and when that time comes...

[KillerLeft]

I think you were right when you said the Mavs won't be very good this upcoming season. I think you were a little harsh with the "won't win 30 games" take, but nonetheless, this will be a transition of sorts. Proof of concept even. Throw a bunch of young "potential" guys at the wall and see what sticks.

My issue is that the “transition” seems to less than imminent. This seems like basically last year’s team with Kyrie Irving and a different bench. Not even players six through eight are really different yet, it’s a different DEEP bench. 

I’m not sure anything past a new coach and the return of a 34 year old is substantively different than last year. Flagg will get better, so that’s good. But, I was hoping for a season jam-packed with progress.

[Smitty]

My issue is that the “transition” seems to less than imminent. This seems like basically last year’s team with Kyrie Irving and a different bench. Not even players six through eight are really different yet, it’s a different DEEP bench. 

I’m not sure anything past a new coach and the return of a 34 year old is substantively different than last year. Flagg will get better, so that’s good. But, I was hoping for a season jam-packed with progress.

I think the progress is the move away from two Bigs. Sure, it's a team full of Wings. But we're getting closer...

I think Kyrie AND Lively are the big additions in the top 5... Unless you're starting to lean towards my side of things on the Lively front..? In the top 10-12 I do see a shakeup. Maybe not immediately, but certainly eventually.

Top 12 in minutes played last year:

Flagg
Max
Naji
PJW
Klay

BWill
Gafford
Nemby
Powell
Martin

AD
Middelton



I would think/hope that the top 12 this season looks NOTHING like the above... It’s a completely different team, really.

[Chicagojk]

As is, the roster is clunky and ill fitting.    I am thinking the team is looking to eventually combine two (or 3) of these mid teens contracts with a pick for an all star caliber player.    I don't think that player is available at this moment.   I think that is the plan.  The timeframe may also be decided on how close they are when they see the players on the court.   

If it is not available now, It is going to be interesting to see how it fits.    I should be better than last year.   How much is tbd.    Mavs have a lot of players who have good salaries and expect a lot of playing time.    Maybe Morez starts the year right outside the rotation and is brought along slowly.  Maybe Lively continues his rehab to start the season.   It does appear that the quote on quote shooting guard is going to be filled for at least 20 minutes with someone who really isn't a shooting guard. Positions are not as important as they used to be, but with the Mavs it is touch and go because that shooting guard really needs to be capable of running an offense at times.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I hate to say this, and I know nobody is ready for anything remotely negative about Ujiri, whatsoever, but...

...this is what was wrong in Toronto.  

Let's define what "wrong in Toronto" actually looked like.  They averaged 49 wins a season for a 10 year window.  During that time Toronto's top 2 players always had WS's that combined to total between 15 and 21 wins.  The exception was the Covid season where they had their only losing year during that span of time.

For reference, Naji produced the teams highest WS last season at 4.3.  One thing I notice about those Toronto teams during that period is they tended to be deep with productive players.  Most teams had 6-8 players who produced more 'wins" than Naji produced last season.  One of the things that seems to be happening is Masai is trying to rebuild the depth here.  The average NBA players has a WS/48 of .100.  Gafford, Lively (7 games) and Cisse were the only players on last season's team to achieve that.  Naji got close at .095.  Sasser tends to land at about that .100 mark and is dramatically better at it than Williams or Nembhard.  Aldama also tends to land at above .100 and doubles the mark PJ typically achieves.  Risacher is trending toward average and in his second season was considerably better than what Klay provided.    

The 6-9 narrative comes largely from adding Barnes to a team that had Siakam and OG on it already.  Few criticized the pick and I personally think the narrative oversimplifies things.  Toronto was a team in transition the last few years.  It's long time star faded and was traded.  They got by for a year with FVV, then he left.  They traded OG for guards who haven't been especially productive (neither of which is 6-9).  They moved on from Siakam and handed the reigns to Barnes and he hasn't proved he can carry the team.  The falloff in wins also corresponded to a coaching change as Nick Nurse was fired.  And, as players got more expensive, the investment available for the bench faded as well.  

Since I'm on a WS kick, let's look at what we have in 26/27 and make projections based on historic norms through that lens:

Naji:        4.3 (what he did in his current role last season)
PJ:          2.0 (this is where he lands every year.  It is an issue)
Lively:      5.0 (he has to be on the court to do this, but his best is good enough)
Gafford:   4.5 (his 3 year average in Dallas.  It has been as high as 7.8)
Christie:   2.7 (he's done that twice)
Irving:     5.0 (it used to be higher, but this has been the new norm in recent years)
Sasser:     2.0 (his peak thus far)
Risacher:  2.5 (it could be higher as it went up from his rookie season)
Aldama:    5.0 (his peak before a dropoff last season)

That's 33 wins plus Flagg and not counting anything from the rookies.  I don't think we are going to get much from most of the rookies, but I will point out that Morez had a 6.1 Win Share last season and his .292 WS/48 ranked in the 99th percentile among college bigs.  That projects to be slightly above .100 in the NBA as a rookie and could produce a WS of 3.5-4 if he can get 20 minutes a game.  That wouldn't really be additive as a rookie compared to what we already get from Lively or Gafford.  It would add a couple of wins if he gets his minutes from PJ.  So, let's call it 35 wins before we talk about Flagg.

True superstars can take huge jumps in their second year.  Lebron (whose numbers often compare favorably to Flaggs) went from 5.1 to 14.3 his second year.  His 3 points shooting went from .290 to .351 BTW.  Durant went from 2.3 to 7.9.  Others progress more slowly (Kawhi) and others come in with higher values as rookies and hold steady for a few years (Barnes and Tatum were both in the 6 range as rookies and held flat until they had jumps after a few seasons).  I think a floor of around 6 for Flagg makes sense and maybe you get to 9 if everything falls perfectly into place.

The point of going through all of that is I think this is a 39-41 win team.  If you go back and look at the Masai teams in Toronto, total team WS was always very predictive of actual wins.  We won't know how clunky the roster actually is until we know more about the roster.  And we won't really know that until we get through the TDL and next summer.  If we are sitting here with this same group this time next year, then I'll start to worry about Masai's vision.  But, for now, I'm happy to just see him up the talent quotient and have more to work with in future trades than he had when he arrived.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't know when they will make an all-in type swing to pair with Flagg. Not even sure who that player might be. Or if they'll go that route... But they will have some decent sized contracts, attached to some pretty decent players, that will help with that cause... If and when that time comes...

I think if you look at his history, the one thing we know is he won't sit on his hands early in his tenure.  The transition doesn't have to happen all in one summer.  He made some of his biggest trades the first TDL after he arrived.  Maybe part one of the plan was to add talent so that when some kind of consolidation trade does happen, there is still talent here.

[mvossman]

I think the progress is the move away from two Bigs. Sure, it's a team full of Wings. But we're getting closer...

I think Kyrie AND Lively are the big additions in the top 5... Unless you're starting to lean towards my side of things on the Lively front..? In the top 10-12 I do see a shakeup. Maybe not immediately, but certainly eventually.

Top 12 in minutes played last year:

Flagg
Max
Naji
PJW
Klay

BWill
Gafford
Nemby
Powell
Martin

AD
Middelton



I would think/hope that the top 12 this season looks NOTHING like the above... It’s a completely different team, really.

I'm not sure they have fully moved away from two bigs.  Lively, Gafford, Morez, and Aldama should all get significant minutes when healthy.  

Their top 4 minutes getters and 5 out of 7 will be getting heavy minutes again as it currently stands.  Hard to argue that's a completely different team.  I'm not sure how they are going to find minutes for Morez, Aldama, Risacher, Larry and Sasser, especially if Lively is actually healthy.

[Scott41theMavs]

I'm not sure they have fully moved away from two bigs.  Lively, Gafford, Morez, and Aldama should all get significant minutes when healthy.  

Their top 4 minutes getters and 5 out of 7 will be getting heavy minutes again as it currently stands.  Hard to argue that's a completely different team.  I'm not sure how they are going to find minutes for Morez, Aldama, Risacher, Larry and Sasser, especially if Lively is actually healthy.

But even if Kyrie and Lively end up top 8 in minutes this year (!), that’s a completely different team.

[mvossman]

Let's define what "wrong in Toronto" actually looked like.  They averaged 49 wins a season for a 10 year window.  During that time Toronto's top 2 players always had WS's that combined to total between 15 and 21 wins.  The exception was the Covid season where they had their only losing year during that span of time.

For reference, Naji produced the teams highest WS last season at 4.3.  One thing I notice about those Toronto teams during that period is they tended to be deep with productive players.  Most teams had 6-8 players who produced more 'wins" than Naji produced last season.  One of the things that seems to be happening is Masai is trying to rebuild the depth here.  The average NBA players has a WS/48 of .100.  Gafford, Lively (7 games) and Cisse were the only players on last season's team to achieve that.  Naji got close at .095.  Sasser tends to land at about that .100 mark and is dramatically better at it than Williams or Nembhard.  Aldama also tends to land at above .100 and doubles the mark PJ typically achieves.  Risacher is trending toward average and in his second season was considerably better than what Klay provided.    

The 6-9 narrative comes largely from adding Barnes to a team that had Siakam and OG on it already.  Few criticized the pick and I personally think the narrative oversimplifies things.  Toronto was a team in transition the last few years.  It's long time star faded and was traded.  They got by for a year with FVV, then he left.  They traded OG for guards who haven't been especially productive (neither of which is 6-9).  They moved on from Siakam and handed the reigns to Barnes and he hasn't proved he can carry the team.  The falloff in wins also corresponded to a coaching change as Nick Nurse was fired.  And, as players got more expensive, the investment available for the bench faded as well.  

Since I'm on a WS kick, let's look at what we have in 26/27 and make projections based on historic norms through that lens:

Naji:        4.3 (what he did in his current role last season)
PJ:          2.0 (this is where he lands every year.  It is an issue)
Lively:      5.0 (he has to be on the court to do this, but his best is good enough)
Gafford:   4.5 (his 3 year average in Dallas.  It has been as high as 7.8)
Christie:   2.7 (he's done that twice)
Irving:     5.0 (it used to be higher, but this has been the new norm in recent years)
Sasser:     2.0 (his peak thus far)
Risacher:  2.5 (it could be higher as it went up from his rookie season)
Aldama:    5.0 (his peak before a dropoff last season)

That's 33 wins plus Flagg and not counting anything from the rookies.  I don't think we are going to get much from most of the rookies, but I will point out that Morez had a 6.1 Win Share last season and his .292 WS/48 ranked in the 99th percentile among college bigs.  That projects to be slightly above .100 in the NBA as a rookie and could produce a WS of 3.5-4 if he can get 20 minutes a game.  That wouldn't really be additive as a rookie compared to what we already get from Lively or Gafford.  It would add a couple of wins if he gets his minutes from PJ.  So, let's call it 35 wins before we talk about Flagg.

True superstars can take huge jumps in their second year.  Lebron (whose numbers often compare favorably to Flaggs) went from 5.1 to 14.3 his second year.  His 3 points shooting went from .290 to .351 BTW.  Durant went from 2.3 to 7.9.  Others progress more slowly (Kawhi) and others come in with higher values as rookies and hold steady for a few years (Barnes and Tatum were both in the 6 range as rookies and held flat until they had jumps after a few seasons).  I think a floor of around 6 for Flagg makes sense and maybe you get to 9 if everything falls perfectly into place.

The point of going through all of that is I think this is a 39-41 win team.  If you go back and look at the Masai teams in Toronto, total team WS was always very predictive of actual wins.  We won't know how clunky the roster actually is until we know more about the roster.  And we won't really know that until we get through the TDL and next summer.  If we are sitting here with this same group this time next year, then I'll start to worry about Masai's vision.  But, for now, I'm happy to just see him up the talent quotient and have more to work with in future trades than he had when he arrived.

I'm curious what 49 wins in the east equates to in the west?  45?

Win shares is a limited box score stat that does a poor job capturing defense (as all box score stats do).  Good defenders like Lively, PJ, Naji and Sasser are going to have lower win shares than their actual on court impact.  Gafford probably has less on court impact than his win shares as his block rate is disproportionately high compared to the rest of his defense. The fact that Gafford and Kyrie have similar win shares should really put that stat to question. Also you need to be careful using some of these guys historical averages. They have so many players demanding minutes a lot of these guys may get less minutes than they are used to.