MAVS NEWS:

[Scott41theMavs]

At this point, his value is going to be close to nothing.  Coming off an injury, needing a new contract, playing in 98 of a possible 246 games, trending in the wrong direction (each season playing fewer games than the last), you'd be lucky to get some to take a flier on him that would net you a few SRPs.  At this point, we might as well hang onto him to avoid a Tyson Chandler situation.  The type of contract he'll get will be fascinating to watch.

For obviously different reasons, it’s kind of becoming a Tarpley situation.

Beringer makes a bit more sense now, right?

[Smitty]

For obviously different reasons, it’s kind of becoming a Tarpley situation.

Beringer makes a bit more sense now, right?

Maybe my crazy idea wasn’t so crazy after all. Definitely changes the Gafford trade dynamic, if you’re worried about the win-loss record next year anyway. I’m starting to get the sense that this team isn’t going to be competitive at all next season. Might as well get what you can get, hoping for a decent team in 2029 or so… sigh

[Scott41theMavs]

Maybe my crazy idea wasn’t so crazy after all. Definitely changes the Gafford trade dynamic, if you’re worried about the win-loss record next year anyway. I’m starting to get the sense that this team isn’t going to be competitive at all next season. Might as well get what you can get, hoping for a decent team in 2029 or so… sigh

It really depends on the rest of their moves.

I hated it, but maybe Gump was right all the times he told us to quit pencilling DL3 in for anything.

[Smitty]

It really depends on the rest of their moves.

I hated it, but maybe Gump was right all the times he told us to quit pencilling DL3 in for anything.

Idk about Gump, but I feel like I’ve been the leader in the clubhouse when it comes that take.

I’ve accepted that they won’t be good next season. Probably not even the following one. I do like a future front court of Flagg-MoJo. Everything else will take a lot of hopium at this point.

[KillerLeft]

This news doesn't really change my temperature on Lively for the better or worse.

The tipping point was and is still is about whether he can he put this injury behind him and prove he can stay on the court before a decision must be made on his future contract. Learning that his current rehab might or might not be complete in time for the beginning of this season really doesn't move the needle. For me, it's still about what happens after the next time he comes back, whenever that is.

Personally, I hope they're actually careful with the kid this time around, because they sure weren't last time.

[Scott41theMavs]

So, pencilling Lively functionally *off* the roster, and including draft picks but not our own FAs, it’s

Kai Max Cooper PJW MoJo
Nembhard Klay Ishchenko Marshall Gaff
De Larrea Poulakoudis Martin Cisse

+ AJ’s junk contract + DL3

That roster would look a lot better if they could add at least one more player with creational ability. Not as down on him as cow is, but Max in the starting lineup is a major eyesore.

[Scott41theMavs]

This news doesn't really change my temperature on Lively for the better or worse.

The tipping point was and is still is about whether he can he put this injury behind him and prove he can stay on the court before a decision must be made on his future contract. Learning that his current rehab might or might not be complete in time for the beginning of this season really doesn't move the needle. For me, it's still about what happens after the next time he comes back, whenever that is.

Personally, I hope they're actually careful with the kid this time around, because they sure weren't last time.

To beat the dead horse (until Masai somehow notices), it’s kind of spilled milk unless we get a decent medical staff like yesterday.

[Smitty]

This news doesn't really change my temperature on Lively for the better or worse.

The tipping point was and is still is about whether he can he put this injury behind him and prove he can stay on the court before a decision must be made on his future contract. Learning that his current rehab might or might not be complete in time for the beginning of this season really doesn't move the needle. For me, it's still about what happens after the next time he comes back, whenever that is.

Personally, I hope they're actually careful with the kid this time around, because they sure weren't last time.

I wish I believed in anything as much as you believe in Lively’s health.

[Scott41theMavs]

Regarding the conundrum of what to do with DL3 asset and contract-wise, it seems pretty clear to me that 1) you have to see if he can get back to the court before you can actually get anything of value back for him, if it’s correct that he’s become functionally worthless. If he doesn’t before his contract expires and you “don’t get anything for him,” the most you were going to get was probably a single second rounder at best. 2) You sure as hell don’t invest more substantial money in him unless he comes back *and* stays healthy, *and* balls out, *and* is part of a playoff push, *and* we have a top three medical staff that can sign off on him. That’s a lot of hypotheticals. Otherwise, the question is, how tiny of a one-year contract can you sign him to legally and still retain his full Bird rights?

[KillerLeft]

I wish I believed in anything as much as you believe in Lively’s health.

I don't believe in it, I just haven't decided it's a lost cause yet, especially because of an off-hand tidbit of info that doesn't contradict anything we knew, only something we assumed. There was never really a timetable put on his return this last time around, so for all we know he's right on target with his rehab - it's just that we don't/didn't know what that timetable was. 

What I do believe is that some players are so insanely impactful and valuable that they quite literally can't be replaced. IF Lively was healthy, there isn't another center in the entire NBA I'd want more outside of Wembenyama, Jokic or Adebayo, all of whom are in a different tier for offensive reasons. 

I don't get the handwringing over this, really. 

1) I don't think the team is going to be very good this year. What little chance they have to make an impact seems directly related to Lively's health, so I'd hope ALL Mavs fans were hopeful about it.

2) He's on a rookie contract. I don't think anyone is in favor of giving him a lucrative deal without a drastic uptick in the time he spends on the court. This simply isn't a decision that needs to be made now. I feel justified in the opinion that the best course of action with Lively is to hope for the best. There will be time for difficult decisions later, when we have more information. 

To contrast this situation, there are other players here who are already paid more than they're worth, given the circumstances of their current fit with Flagg and the changing roster. To me, THOSE are the "problems." You could tell me they'll play all 82 games every year of their current contracts and it wouldn't matter because they don't make the team better.

[Scott41theMavs]

Well-said, KL. Lively is tremendous in terms of rim protection, rim-running, and especially perimeter switchability. You don’t give up on that until it’s actually crumbled to dust.

[KillerLeft]

Well-said, KL. Lively is tremendous in terms of rim protection, rim-running, and especially perimeter switchability. You don’t give up on that until it’s actually crumbled to dust.

Especially when there's no upside in giving up. 

I personally think Lively going on the block in time for his new team to take advantage of the same remaining runway to see whether or not he's destined for a long NBA career might be worth more than people assume - he's just that talented. But, it's not worth enough to make a material difference on the Mavs' immediate outlook, and it's unlikely to be an improvement over the chances for future benefit when compared to simply playing out the odds with Lively further. I'll say it again, his contract isn't hurting anything. It's getting stuck with the next one that would be a problem if he continues to be unavailable. 

There aren't going to find another player quite like Lively - I can promise that.

[Scott41theMavs]

FWIW KL - I still believe that any assessment of what “this team” can or can’t do has to wait on what they do in the rest of the offseason. We don’t know what the team will be yet. Cooper, MoJo, and (presumably) Kai are still the only certain rotation players.

If they 1) add a bit to the talent quotient through savviness of trades, TPE, and/or MLE, and 2) obtain two more players with serviceable creational ability (elite ain’t happening) in the process, then I think they could be in a position to field a play-in team. Especially with May’s team ramp-up abilities as a coach.

[KillerLeft]

FWIW KL - I still believe that any assessment of what “this team” can or can’t do has to wait on what they do in the rest of the offseason. 

OMG, OF COURSE IT DOES! Yeah, things could look considerably better in a couple of weeks for sure. I don't think there's a button to push that makes contention a possibility, but as long as they keep making good moves the arrow should finally be pointed up again.

[Smitty]

I don't believe in it, I just haven't decided it's a lost cause yet, especially because of an off-hand tidbit of info that doesn't contradict anything we knew, only something we assumed. There was never really a timetable put on his return this last time around, so for all we know he's right on target with his rehab - it's just that we don't/didn't know what that timetable was. 

What I do believe is that some players are so insanely impactful and valuable that they quite literally can't be replaced. IF Lively was healthy, there isn't another center in the entire NBA I'd want more outside of Wembenyama, Jokic or Adebayo, all of whom are in a different tier for offensive reasons. 

I don't get the handwringing over this, really. 

1) I don't think the team is going to be very good this year. What little chance they have to make an impact seems directly related to Lively's health, so I'd hope ALL Mavs fans were hopeful about it.

2) He's on a rookie contract. I don't think anyone is in favor of giving him a lucrative deal without a drastic uptick in the time he spends on the court. This simply isn't a decision that needs to be made now. I feel justified in the opinion that the best course of action with Lively is to hope for the best. There will be time for difficult decisions later, when we have more information. 

To contrast this situation, there are other players here who are already paid more than they're worth, given the circumstances of their current fit with Flagg and the changing roster. To me, THOSE are the "problems." You could tell me they'll play all 82 games every year of their current contracts and it wouldn't matter because they don't make the team better.

I get it, don’t get me wrong. There’s no reason to get rid of him… but you’ve been saying the same thing for 2 years. “What if”. At some point we need to live in reality. Counting on Lively to be part of the future Mavs is a bit of fools gold. That’s always been my only pushback. Of course he’s talented. Of course he’s impactful. But he’s not available. Period. Hopium is perfectly fine. I have a lot of it. I just can’t get to where you are is all.

I would love nothing more for him to be Tyson Chandler instead of Greg Oden.

[KillerLeft]

I get it, don’t get me wrong. There’s no reason to get rid of him… but you’ve been saying the same thing for 2 years. “What if”. At some point we need to live in reality. Counting on Lively to be part of the future Mavs is a bit of fools gold. That’s always been my only pushback. Of course he’s talented. Of course he’s impactful. But he’s not available. Period. Hopium is perfectly fine. I have a lot of it. I just can’t get to where you are is all.

I would love nothing more for him to be Tyson Chandler instead of Greg Oden.

Well, I'm all for living in reality, I just don't think writing him off is any closer to reality than "what if." We just don't know. It's frustrating and people are tired of it - that's for sure. But we don't know.

And, I think the Morez Johnson pick went a long way towards preparing for the possible eventuality of letting Lively fall away and said so immediately.

The idea that I push back against is that the Mavs are somehow shielded from Lively's injury because of Gafford. These are not equally impactful players. Since I think you need someone special anchoring your defense, I simply don't see any connection between Lively's injury and Gafford's situation here, which for me is 100% about part time impact on one end of the floor, mostly during the regular season. Gafford is of a quality that's helpful as a backup to Lively, but without the Lively, the team is bad, so what's the point in overpaying for the Gafford part?

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

If the team is gonna be bad, what's the point in overpaying PJ Washington or Klay Thompson or anyone else on the roster? I don't get your obsession with Gafford. You're a little hyper fixated on this ideal archetype of Center you like without looking at the reality of the situation. Without him and Lively, the center rotation is Moussa Cisse. You need to field a real team.

Face it. We have a bunch of veterans that were brought in to play with Luka. Now they are all out of place here. And other teams dont seem interested in them. So just roll them out there. There is no pressing situation you have to trade Gafford.

[Scott41theMavs]

If the team is gonna be bad, what's the point in overpaying PJ Washington or Klay Thompson or anyone else on the roster?  I don't get your obsession with Gafford.  You're a little hyper fixated on this ideal archetype of Center you like without looking at the reality of the situation.  Without him and Lively, the center rotation is Moussa Cisse.  You need to field a real team.

Many (not me) see MoJo as a center more than anything else. And likely the starting center.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

He is not going to be the starting center right away.  He said he sees himself more as a 4.  Yall are a little hyped because it's draft season and he's the shiny new toy.  Right now, he's probably like a 12 minutes at the 4 and 12 minutes at the 5 type player.

[KillerLeft]

If the team is gonna be bad, what's the point in overpaying PJ Washington or Klay Thompson or anyone else on the roster?  I don't get your obsession with Gafford.  You're a little hyper fixated on this ideal archetype of Center you like without looking at the reality of the situation.  Without him and Lively, the center rotation is Moussa Cisse.  You need to field a real team.

Face it.  We have a bunch of veterans that were brought in to play with Luka.  Now they are all out of place here.  And other teams dont seem interested in them.  So just roll them out there.  There is no pressing situation you have to trade Gafford.

I’m in total lock step with your first paragraph. I just brought up Gafford as a specific because it related to the conversation about the center position.

I agree with your second paragraph to an extent. I’m not desperate to dump anyone, including Gafford. On the other hand, some of them are in the way of younger players making progress, and I also don’t think that time is going to make better deals magically appear. What I am a little desperate to do is to freaking get on with things and stop living in this fantasy that this is still the team that went to the finals. Those support players are never going to look as good here as they did that year. That ship sailed with the Luka trade.