Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[Smitty]

Agreed. So much can happen in the next six weeks. I think we all agree that this can´t be the final team, if they want to be competitive next year. If 95% of people here can agree on that, I´m pretty sure Ujiri and Schmitz and May see the same thing.

It certainly won’t be the final team. They only have 12 players on the roster. At minimum they’ll need to add 2 more.

I do think we could be looking at it the wrong way yet again. MAYBE Flagg is the Point-Forward for this team throughout his career. 

I’m not saying he should be. Just that it’ll be interesting if an entirely new front office and head coach see the same thing for his future in the league. 

The Tatum comps weren’t made by dumb basketball people. Something to consider as a possibility anyway…

[KillerLeft]

I do think we could be looking at it the wrong way yet again. MAYBE Flagg is the Point-Forward for this team throughout his career. 

I just can't imagine anyone other than Harrison/Kidd thinking that way. I don't even think THEY thought that way. From my read of context, they seem to have fallen out over this exact argument, but neither really wanted Flagg to be the PG. I think it's as simple as Harrison thought DLO could do it and Kidd didn't. No other realistic alternative existed, so that was the end of things.

People have a tendency to take this argument to extremes. NOBODY is saying Flagg shouldn't play SOME point-forward. In fact, I could even get on board with the idea that he has the ball in his hands a lot during the ends of close games, for example. 

But to have him play that way 2/3 of the time or more??? I'm sorry, but I think that is THE dumbest way they could possibly try to move forward. A healthy Kyrie doesn't even remove us from that reality comfortably enough, and the Mavs are one very likely Kyrie injury from being right back there. 

It's INSANITY.

Maybe the only thing I really miss about the Nelsons (and Carlisle, too) is that they were always churning through PG prospects. It's like they weren't comfortable unless there were three bonafide NBA PG's on the roster, and after watching this team the last couple of seasons I finally understand why.

[Mavs2021]

It certainly won’t be the final team. They only have 12 players on the roster. At minimum they’ll need to at 2 more.

I do think we could be looking at it the wrong way yet again. MAYBE Flagg is the Point-Forward for this team throughout his career. 
I’m not saying he should be. Just that it’ll be interesting if an entirely new front office and head coach see the same thing for his future in the league. 

The Tatum comps weren’t made by dumb basketball people. Something to consider as a possibility anyway…

Oh no doubt, but they still need more shooters. I honestly believe Barrett and Herro could be the targets. Both 26 years old. Both in the last year of their contracts. Positional size, scoring, play-making, shooting. Both teams have players with a** contracts that fit into our TPE (Kuzma/Poeltl). Miami probably likes Klay/Middleton for Giannis. Toronto has been linked to Gafford at the deadline. I think Gafford, Christie, Thompson, Middleton, Warriors pick, eating Poeltl, can actually get this done.

[KillerLeft]

Herro

I am not the biggest Herro fan, but I am here to tell anyone who will listen that he would make a HUGE difference for this, specific team. HUGE.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Agreed, and I'm guilty. I reacted in real time without taking a second to properly absorb the "money disappearing for nothing" aspect of it. All things considered, I'd say DET coming out 3 SRPs to the better kind of indicates a massive value, honestly. 

...but, I also think Stewart is a more desirable player than Gafford, so there's that.

It's clearly not an apples to apples situation with Gafford vs Stewart but if it does turn out that Gafford is viewed as a negative contract across the league we may end up finding out that we can't really count on good basketball assets coming back and instead a bunch of additional bad contracts being offered instead.  There is a very real reality where the best we can do is just have someone clear the books for us in exchange for an SRP or two and I think it's fair to brace for that potential reality.

Up until a couple days ago I had been on the side of "the Mavs have a much stronger asset collection than given credit for" side of the fence but it was under the assumption that guys like PJ and Gafford and even Klay to a lesser extent could bring us back assets (potentially even young players that we can try to develop).  After the activity across the league, especially the lack thereof during the draft, I'm not so sure anymore.  Everyone keeps saying vets didn't get moved because of how deep the class was when I'm worried it might be because these ~$20M rotation players are just really undesirable in this second apron era, even if the players are decent.  The next month will be very interesting to see what the truth is there.

[Smitty]

Oh no doubt, but they still need more shooters. I honestly believe Barrett and Herro could be the targets. Both 26 years old. Both in the last year of their contracts. Positional size, scoring, play-making, shooting. Both teams have players with a** contracts that fit into our TPE (Kuzma/Poeltl). Miami probably likes Klay/Middleton for Giannis. Toronto has been linked to Gafford at the deadline. I think Gafford, Christie, Thompson, Middleton, Warriors pick, eating Poeltl, can actually get this done.

I’m trying to follow. You’re saying a 4-team type deal between MIA, MIL, TOR, and DAL? Or just targeting Hero by taking on Kuzma and Barrett by taking on Poeltl? Where does Christie, Klay, Middleton come into this one?

[Smitty]

It's clearly not an apples to apples situation with Gafford vs Stewart but if it does turn out that Gafford is viewed as a negative contract across the league we may end up finding out that we can't really count on good basketball assets coming back and instead a bunch of additional bad contracts being offered instead.  There is a very real reality where the best we can do is just have someone clear the books for us in exchange for an SRP or two and I think it's fair to brace for that potential reality.

Up until a couple days ago I had been on the side of "the Mavs have a much stronger asset collection than given credit for" side of the fence but it was under the assumption that guys like PJ and Gafford and even Klay to a lesser extent could bring us back assets (potentially even young players that we can try to develop).  After the activity across the league, especially the lack thereof during the draft, I'm not so sure anymore.  Everyone keeps saying vets didn't get moved because of how deep the class was when I'm worried it might be because these ~$20M rotation players are just really undesirable in this second apron era, even if the players are decent.  The next month will be very interesting to see what the truth is there.

I don’t remember where I heard or read it but basically the league is at a standstill for the most part with pick value. There’s no consensus because some teams read the new lottery changes one way and other teams the opposite, so it’s difficult to find a middle ground right now. It’ll take some time, but I think the league will work out the new norm pretty soon. With every trade comes more data. All these analytics departments need that data!

[KillerLeft]

I don’t remember where I heard or read it but basically the league is at a standstill for the most part with pick value. There’s no consensus because some teams read the new lottery changes one way and other teams the opposite, so it’s difficult to find a middle ground right now. It’ll take some time, but I think the league will work out the new norm pretty soon. With every trade comes more data. All these analytics departments need that data!

Yeah, I thought so, too, which is why I was dumbfounded by the sheer number of picks that changed hands for Ball today. It definitely feels like Connelly is still working out of 2023's playbook.

[Smitty]

Yeah, I thought so, too, which is why I was dumbfounded by the sheer number of picks that changed hands for Ball today. It definitely feels like Connelly is still working out of 2023's playbook.

If you dive deeper into that deal, it’s actually not all that crazy. It basically amounts to one first round pick and one pick swap. I don’t think MIN should have targeted Ball with their last bit of assets, but that’s a different discussion.

[Mavs2021]

I’m trying to follow. You’re saying a 4-team type deal between MIA, MIL, TOR, and DAL? Or just targeting Hero by taking on Kuzma and Barrett by taking on Poeltl? Where does Christie, Klay, Middleton come into this one?

Something like

Barrett for Gafford + Warriors 1st round pick 
Poeltl´s horrible contract into the TPE

Thompson + Middleton to Miami
Christie + Martin to Milwaukee  
Herro to Dallas

Leaves Dallas with

Kyrie/MLE (?)/De Larrea
Herro/Barrett/Johnson
Flagg/Marshall/Ishchenko
Washington/Johnson/Bagley (?)
Lively/Poeltl/Cisse (?)

[KillerLeft]

If you dive deeper into that deal, it’s actually not all that crazy. It basically amounts to one first round pick and one pick swap. I don’t think MIN should have targeted Ball with their last bit of assets, but that’s a different discussion.

Can you elaborate? What did I miss?

[Smitty]

Can you elaborate? What did I miss?

Here are the pick swaps the Hornets received in the Timberwolves deal for LaMelo Ball:

2028: Hornets get more favorable of CLT/MIN
2029: Hornets already owned the least favorable of the UTA/CLE/MIN picks straight up. I think the Hornets will now be entitled to swap their own pick with the second-most favorable of the bunch.
2030: Hornets get the opportunity to swap with the least favorable of SAS/DAL/MIN unless the MIN pick ends up first overall.

So essentially one unprotected swap in 2028, and two that are very unlikely to result in much.

[Mavs2021]

It's clearly not an apples to apples situation with Gafford vs Stewart but if it does turn out that Gafford is viewed as a negative contract across the league we may end up finding out that we can't really count on good basketball assets coming back and instead a bunch of additional bad contracts being offered instead.  There is a very real reality where the best we can do is just have someone clear the books for us in exchange for an SRP or two and I think it's fair to brace for that potential reality.

Up until a couple days ago I had been on the side of "the Mavs have a much stronger asset collection than given credit for" side of the fence but it was under the assumption that guys like PJ and Gafford and even Klay to a lesser extent could bring us back assets (potentially even young players that we can try to develop).  After the activity across the league, especially the lack thereof during the draft, I'm not so sure anymore.  Everyone keeps saying vets didn't get moved because of how deep the class was when I'm worried it might be because these ~$20M rotation players are just really undesirable in this second apron era, even if the players are decent.  The next month will be very interesting to see what the truth is there.

I´ll only add Stewart is a volatile player going to a team that will lose a lot, prides itself on a physical style of play and Stewart is one punch away from a 25 game suspension, which is 1/3 of the season.

[KillerLeft]

Here are the pick swaps the Hornets received in the Timberwolves deal for LaMelo Ball:

2028: Hornets get more favorable of CLT/MIN
2029: Hornets already owned the least favorable of the UTA/CLE/MIN picks straight up. I think the Hornets will now be entitled to swap their own pick with the second-most favorable of the bunch.
2030: Hornets get the opportunity to swap with the least favorable of SAS/DAL/MIN unless the MIN pick ends up first overall.

So essentially one unprotected swap in 2028, and two that are very unlikely to result in much.

But weren't there actual picks changing hands, too, or did I dream that part?

EDIT: Ah, I see...some of them were 2nds.

[Smitty]

But weren't there actual picks changing hands, too, or did I dream that part?

Yeah the one actual FRP they have that becomes tradable in the new league year.. 2033.

So again. 1 FRP and essentially 1 Swap for Ball. Well, plus Naz and some seconds.

[KillerLeft]

Yeah the one actual FRP they have that becomes tradable in the new league year.. 2033.

So again. 1 FRP and essentially 1 Swap for Ball. Well, plus Naz and some seconds.

Yeah, they got me with that one. Still a good haul, but not a Bane or Bridges trade.

[F Gump]

Not that I'm complaining - I'd be pretty excited about this, actually. But, I must say this would surprise me. Where are you finding this info?

FWIW it is indicative of nothing, for a longshot Euro player draftee to be brought to SL. It can be used as an evaluation tool, to decide what happens from there. If he comes (and I see no reason why they wouldn't bring him in), nothing is yet decided until he actually signs an NBA or 2-way contract.

[Smitty]

@ShamsCharania
Restricted free agent Mark Williams intends to sign a three-year, $38 million contract to return to the Phoenix Suns, sources tell ESPN. The deal is fully guaranteed for Williams, who averaged 11 points, 8 rebounds and 1 block in 23.6 minutes per game as the Suns starting center.

[KillerLeft]

@ShamsCharania
Restricted free agent Mark Williams intends to sign a three-year, $38 million contract to return to the Phoenix Suns, sources tell ESPN. The deal is fully guaranteed for Williams, who averaged 11 points, 8 rebounds and 1 block in 23.6 minutes per game as the Suns starting center.

Does he still have the injury stuff that prompted LA to rescind that trade? I kind of lost track of him this year. Because if he's clear on the medical side of things I really like that deal. THAT's a good deal for a "good" backup, rim-running center, and a STEAL for a starter.

[BigDirk41]

Is there reason to believe Milwaukee is shopping Herro and wouldn't he be expensive to get? He's a pretty damn good player and great shooter.