2026 NBA draft thread

[dirkfansince1998]

I keep hearing the DSJ pick being used as a comp situation, to sell that terrible draftsmanship is likely again, and I don't buy it. 

I do recall in that DSJ draft year there seemed to be a top 6 (out of our range) and then the 2nd tier with DSJ, Ntilikina, Markannen, and Monk being regularly in that spot. We talked about it a lot. But I don't recall we the public having realms of info (lots of gurus, videos, analysis, articles, etc) on the various players, like we do now.

DSJ turned out to be meh. But that certainly wasn't on us (we were only bystanders with opinions). And there's no question that Cuban did not prioritize the draft, with either money, personnel, or approach, so the result was kinda what you get when you are winging it. 

The point being - I think we are in a completely different world with this draft, on about every level. Our fan expertise is way better, just because we see both videos and discussions of all these players from about every angle. And after many years of having a 2nd class draft operation (that in some years was a total laughingstock), the Mavs have hired people who are experts at this.

I am not making the case that terrible draftsmanship is going to haunt the Mavs again. I just mentioned it because a lot of people are all in on the top 4 + top 5 guards consensus. It seems like some posters would consider it a failure if the Mavs don't leave the draft with one of the guards. If they don't end up with one of the consensus guys. 
Case I was trying to make is that the decision makers shouldn't and most likely won't care all that much about the consensus. Hard to imagine that the Mavs have all five guards in the same tier. Possible that they are completly out on one of them (Flemings rumor). Possible that they are much higher on some of the guys in the 10-20 range.

That's why I won't lose my mind if the Mavs trade down or pick someone else at #9.

[cow]

I am not making the case that terrible draftsmanship is going to haunt the Mavs again. I just mentioned it because a lot of people are all in on the top 4 + top 5 guards consensus. It seems like some posters would consider it a failure if the Mavs don't leave the draft with one of the guards. If they don't end up with one of the consensus guys. 
Case I was trying to make is that the decision makers shouldn't and most likely won't care all that much about the consensus. Hard to imagine that the Mavs have all five guards in the same tier. Possible that they are completly out on one of them (Flemings rumor). Possible that they are much higher on some of the guys in the 10-20 range.

That's why I won't lose my mind if the Mavs trade down or pick someone else at #9.

Super reasonable and exactly where I am at.

[mvossman]

I am not making the case that terrible draftsmanship is going to haunt the Mavs again. I just mentioned it because a lot of people are all in on the top 4 + top 5 guards consensus. It seems like some posters would consider it a failure if the Mavs don't leave the draft with one of the guards. If they don't end up with one of the consensus guys. 
Case I was trying to make is that the decision makers shouldn't and most likely won't care all that much about the consensus. Hard to imagine that the Mavs have all five guards in the same tier. Possible that they are completly out on one of them (Flemings rumor). Possible that they are much higher on some of the guys in the 10-20 range.

That's why I won't lose my mind if the Mavs trade down or pick someone else at #9.

For me its not about what the consensus is, its about what my own personal amateur assessment is.  I recognize these guys are experts and I'm an armchair, but experts can make mistakes especially when they get too cute.  If they go with a guy I think is a reach I will be disappointed but hope to be proved wrong.

[Jakeospikez]

The new lottery rules make it so that teams that treadmill around the 8th seed aren't in the worst place to be anymore. So teams with franchise players that guarantee some success even when carrying really bad rosters like the old Dirk Mavs or KG Twolves probably will get some decent draft picks at some point. Mavs will control their picks again soon enough and I don't think Flagg will be in that Dirk-like situation where the picks flowing in are so bad the roster is junk.

[F Gump]

I am not making the case that terrible draftsmanship is going to haunt the Mavs again. I just mentioned it because a lot of people are all in on the top 4 + top 5 guards consensus. It seems like some posters would consider it a failure if the Mavs don't leave the draft with one of the guards. If they don't end up with one of the consensus guys. 
Case I was trying to make is that the decision makers shouldn't and most likely won't care all that much about the consensus. Hard to imagine that the Mavs have all five guards in the same tier. Possible that they are completly out on one of them (Flemings rumor). Possible that they are much higher on some of the guys in the 10-20 range.

That's why I won't lose my mind if the Mavs trade down or pick someone else at #9.

Makes sense.

I am of the belief that Tier 2 is the 5 guards, and that in essence we've just been sifting through and debating and weighing and re-weighing the merits of those 5 that are in that tier. I also think the bigger players that are sometimes mocked in the 7-9 area are mocksters getting cute or looking for a needs-based angle, rather than taking a player in Tier 2. Some team may decide they badly need someone bigger, but I don't think they would be picking based on BPA if they did so.

Obviously my Tiers may be wrong. But in an analysis of the guru and scout info we're getting, I am solidly convinced that Tier 2 is really composed of the 5 guards -- which should make our pick fairly easy and obvious, however the draft unfolds.

I think the trade down takes you to Tier 3 - I see no way to get a Tier 2 player after a trade down - and I think that turns the Mavs initial pick into someone appreciably worse. So I would not want that to happen. If I had pick 5 or 6, I would trade down to 9 because I think the players are incredibly close. But not if they go from 9 to 12 or 14 or the like. 

The talk that the Mavs are looking for a trade? Hope and trust that has to do with pick 30. Trade ideas that want the Mavs to trade pick 9 for a player? Yuck no. I think they can probably get a much more valuable player, plus one who is cheaper and younger, at pick 9.

[Scott41theMavs]

For me its not about what the consensus is, its about what my own personal amateur assessment is.  I recognize these guys are experts and I'm an armchair, but experts can make mistakes especially when they get too cute.  If they go with a guy I think is a reach I will be disappointed but hope to be proved wrong.

That's pretty much how I feel about it. 

As I've said before, the main reason that Ament at 9 would upset me is not just the reach, but that we came away with a guy who isn't going to have much useful on-court impact until year 3 (from my armchair).

If it's Ament + another top 25 guy (e.g. trading down for two picks), sign me up *if* that's what Masai/Schmitz believe is the right thing.

[Scott41theMavs]

Some of the guys in the Discord are talking about a local podcaster suggesting that the Mavs might trade #9 plus players for Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones. Since I view TM3 as an empty stats junk player and Jones as having fairly major availability issues, that's a hail no for me. Unless they want to send back their pick for next year unprotected as well.

[SleepingHero]

Dfw Sports Boys (@BasicMavsFan)
Adam Mares on his recent podcast said he’s hearing the Mavs may not be “slow playing” this.

With the smoke about the pelicans wanting a lottery pick I don’t wonder if we end up trading #9 and players for Trey Murphy and Herb Jones

[SleepingHero]

Some of the guys in the Discord are talking about a local podcaster suggesting that the Mavs might trade #9 plus players for Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones. Since I view TM3 as an empty stats junk player and Jones as having fairly major availability issues, that's a hail no for me. Unless they want to send back their pick for next year unprotected as well.

If it was #9+Martin+Klay+Gafford for Murphy+Herb, I think that's about as good of value as you can possibly get. Especially because it also opens the door of being able to trade PJ. Would OKC not be interested in PJ for #12? Mavs essentially move back 3 spots to get #12 and Murphy+Herb. At 12, at least 1 of Philon, Lopez, Carr, or even Steinbech will be available. 


Kyrie/Philon
Murphy/Christie
Herb/Naji
Coop/ Bagley?
Lively/Powell/Cisse

Pretty strong rotation.

[Scott41theMavs]

If it was #9+Martin+Klay+Gafford for Murphy+Herb, I think that's about as good of value as you can possibly get. Especially because it also opens the door of being able to trade PJ. Would OKC not be interested in PJ for #12? Mavs essentially move back 3 spots to get #12 and Murphy+Herb. At 12, at least 1 of Philon, Lopez, Carr, or even Steinbech will be available. 


Kyrie/Philon
Murphy/Christie
Herb/Naji
Coop/ Bagley?
Lively/Powell/Cisse

Pretty strong rotation.

Appreciate you, SH, but no. As I said, TM3 is an empty stats junk player. Not what we need. Overpaid, too. Not throwing away the opportunity to have a good younger player on rookie scale for that. No no no.

[Mavs2021]

If it was #9+Martin+Klay+Gafford for Murphy+Herb, I think that's about as good of value as you can possibly get. Especially because it also opens the door of being able to trade PJ. Would OKC not be interested in PJ for #12? Mavs essentially move back 3 spots to get #12 and Murphy+Herb. At 12, at least 1 of Philon, Lopez, Carr, or even Steinbech will be available. 


Kyrie/Philon
Murphy/Christie
Herb/Naji
Coop/ Bagley?
Lively/Powell/Cisse

Pretty strong rotation.

If we have the #9 and #12 pick, we can easily beat the Heat offer for Giannis, which projects to be #13 and #21 (from Pistons) at the core of the deal.  Murphy does absolutely nothing for me, when we have only two NBA level guards in Irving and Christie atm. One of them coming of an ACL and the other can´t dribble.

[KillerLeft]

Murphy does absolutely nothing for me, when we have only two NBA level guards in Irving and Christie atm. One of them coming of an ACL and the other can´t dribble.

This. 

I just do not get the sense that Mavs fans understand where this team is at the moment. A lack of premium role players isn't the problem. They need offensive creation in the worst, worst way, and that's WITH an effective and motivated Kyrie, which isn't a guarantee.

[F Gump]

Some of the guys in the Discord are talking about a local podcaster suggesting that the Mavs might trade #9 plus players for Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones. Since I view TM3 as an empty stats junk player and Jones as having fairly major availability issues, that's a hail no for me. Unless they want to send back their pick for next year unprotected as well.

I'm with you. I don't see much value for the Mavs. I'd rather have Mavs #9 than NO 1st next season. And while Murphy is a SF who can shoot and puts up numbers, I think his defense is meh and he's paid highly (another 3 y/$87M). Jones is considerably negative value with a way-too-big contract (4 y/$82.5M). PASS.

[khaled1987]

Some Givony videos.  Not the same person as Schmitz but they seem to think similarly on prospects

Brown
https://x.com/DraftExpress/status/206837...deo/1?s=46

Acuff
https://x.com/draftexpress/status/206834...54553?s=46

Quiantance
https://x.com/DraftExpress/status/206833...deo/1?s=46

Bigs

https://x.com/DraftExpress/status/206832...deo/1?s=46

Ament

https://x.com/DraftExpress/status/206835...deo/1?s=46

Flemings

https://x.com/DraftExpress/status/206839...deo/1?s=46


Givony has been steadfast that Peterson is the better prospect than AJ.  It also sounds like he would have boozer over him too.  They are all three close though

It feels he is down on Flemings tbh, like he is trying to be polite with the kid and not saying something to regret, but I think he doesn't think he belongs to the rest of the group. Lack of size, length, willingness to shoot seems like to much of red flags for him.

[Scott41theMavs]

I'm with you. I don't see much value for the Mavs. I'd rather have Mavs #9 than NO 1st next season. And while Murphy is a SF who can shoot and puts up numbers, I think his defense is meh and he's paid highly (another 3 y/$87M). Jones is considerably negative value with a way-too-big contract (4 y/$82.5M). PASS.

I would need the first next year to even think about thinking about it, because the way that trade is laid out, the Mavs give up a juicy asset with zero positive assets coming back. I'm with you that I would need a ton more to pull the trigger on that. If Masai did the original trade, I would hypothesize that he is really here as Nico's sabotage revenge.

[mvossman]

Would OKC not be interested in PJ for #12? Mavs essentially move back 3 spots to get #12 and Murphy+Herb. At 12, at least 1 of Philon, Lopez, Carr, or even Steinbech will be available. 

I don't think there is any chance you are getting #12 for PJ.  OKC is desperately trying to shed salary and I can't imagine Presti would pay that much for PJ off a down year.

[hakeemfaan]

It feels he is down on Flemings tbh, like he is trying to be polite with the kid and not saying something to regret, but I think he doesn't think he belongs to the rest of the group. Lack of size, length, willingness to shoot seems like to much of red flags for him.

A lot of these analysts are just so hung up on the 3 that they can't see beyond it.  This literally after one of the best midrange shooters currently, and one who is a small guard, led his team to a title.

Plus it's not as if Flemings is terrible at shooting the 3.  In fact this guy says he will be a good regular season player and if he can change the pull up 2 to a pull up 3 then we're talking.  What?? Those are two different shots and the pull up 2 in many ways is still much more difficult for defenses to plan for and to defend, especially as you go deeper into the playoffs.  Harden for all his dribbling brilliance never had confidence in a drive hard, stop and pull up for the 2, which is why he struggled as his team went deeper into the playoffs.

But again, many teams seem down on him. So maybe they're all seeing something in the individual workouts that we are not privy too. Let's see how low he drops and what sort of impact he eventually has in the league. IMO if he drops below 10 some team is going to get a real steal in terms of getting a player who clearly belongs a tier above where he will get drafted.

[KillerLeft]

A lot of these analysts are just so hung up on the 3 that they can't see beyond it.  This literally after one of the best midrange shooters currently, and one who is a small guard, led his team to a title.

To be fair, Brunson's midrange game wasn't a factor until he learned to shoot 3's, both off the dribble and off the catch.

[hakeemfaan]

To be fair, Brunson's midrange game wasn't a factor until he learned to shoot 3's, both off the dribble and off the catch.

Brunson's midrange game was always a factor.  We'll disagree on that.

If the argument is could he have gone to the next level as the main guy without a consistent 3, that's a different argument.  But he needs his 3 only to keep defenses honest. His bread and butter is still his midrange game.  There is nothing so far that Flemings has shown to say that he can't do the same.  

Plus with Flagg here, no one is asking Flemings to come in and carry this team.  As a legit 2nd option, you very rarely get a chance at such a guy at #9.

[F Gump]

I don't think there is any chance you are getting #12 for PJ.  OKC is desperately trying to shed salary and I can't imagine Presti would pay that much for PJ off a down year.

That hypothetical trade would not be legal as given (PJ for 12), but the legal version of any deal with OKC would obviously have a boatload of matching salary coming back from OKC, that could easily serve to satisfy their aim to shed salary (while also swapping 12 for PJ).