2026 NBA draft thread

[Chicagojk]

Nate Silver's draft class rankings

https://x.com/APH00PS/status/2057557524249776513

And interesting to see how his formula ranked last years class

https://x.com/APH00PS/status/2057557531065532796

[Chicagojk]

https://x.com/DLLS_Mavs/status/2057565731051499690

Kingston Flemings

[mvossman]

Nate Silver's draft class rankings

https://x.com/APH00PS/status/2057557524249776513

And interesting to see how his formula ranked last years class

https://x.com/APH00PS/status/2057557531065532796

Based on the ranking, looks like college performance is the primary driver with players not being freshman taking a hit.  Interesting to see how it differs from Tankathon.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Nate Silver's draft class rankings

https://x.com/APH00PS/status/2057557524249776513

And interesting to see how his formula ranked last years class

https://x.com/APH00PS/status/2057557531065532796

Daryn Peterson overrated confirmed.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

https://x.com/DLLS_Mavs/status/2057565731051499690

Kingston Flemings

Yes please.

[KillerLeft]

Daryn Peterson overrated confirmed.

I think he has Peterson a little low (still "all star"), but...the real takeaway for me: no Mikel Brown on the list at all?

[mvossman]

I think he has Peterson a little low (still "all star"), but...the real takeaway for me: no Mikel Brown on the list at all?

Just read up on the methodology. It is primarily based on EPM which gives it a lot of credibility in my mind. Based on the research I did a couple of years ago, EPM is as good as we have in overall player evaluation in the NBA. It is also heavily driven by age based on expected development curves. Apparently it does not take injury history into account at all.

I find myself impressed. I already had Wagler, Flemings and Burries high on my list, and this reinforces that. One of those guys will be available at 9.

Kind of crazy Ngongba is so high.

[KillerLeft]

Just read up on the methodology.  It is primarily based on EPM which gives it a lot of credibility in my mind.  Based on the research I did a couple of years ago, EPM is as good as we have in overall player evaluation in the NBA.  It is also heavily driven by age based on expected development curves.  Apparently it does not take injury history into account at all.

I find myself impressed.  I already had Wagler, Flemings and Burries high on my list, and this reinforces that.  One of those guys will be available at 9.

Right there with you. 

Still concerned that the list doesn't include Brown at all, and I like him a lot.

[mvossman]

Right there with you. 

Still concerned that the list doesn't include Brown at all, and I like him a lot.

I answered your question and then edited the post after reading up on the metric and erased the answer.  Brown's advanced metrics in college were not good.  Given that is what this metric is primary based on, not surprising he was so low.  The same goes for Ament.  If you are drafting Brown or Ament, you are doing it based on scouting, not on college performance.

[KillerLeft]

I answered your question and then edited the post after reading up on the metric and erased the answer.  Brown's advanced metrics in college were not good.  Given that is what this metric is primary based on, not surprising he was so low.  The same goes for Ament.  If you are drafting Brown or Ament, you are doing it based on scouting, not on college performance.

Yeah, I mean...I get that Brown throws some dumb, ill-advised passes that result in turnovers, for example. I'm sure the advanced statistical view of him paints a poor picture of his decision making skills. What I like is: I think he's eventually going to COMPLETE those crazy passes. I think I see a level of creativity there that's pretty uncommon. He kind of reminds me of Lamello Ball, only without the ridiculous over the top swaggy dumb guy personality. I think a combination of improvement and reigning him in is possible, and that he might become the idealized version of Ball that everyone's hoping to see someday.

I also don't think Flemings makes it to #9 unless someone higher up agrees with my hope for Brown, sadly.

[mvossman]

Yeah, I mean...I get that Brown throws some dumb, ill-advised passes that result in turnovers, for example. I'm sure the advanced statistical view of him paints a poor picture of his decision making skills. What I like is: I think he's eventually going to COMPLETE those crazy passes. I think I see a level of creativity there that's pretty uncommon. He kind of reminds of Lamello Ball, only without the ridiculous over the top swaggy dumb guy personality. I think a combination of improvement and reining him in is possible, and that he might become the idealized version of Ball that everyone's hoping to see some day.

I also don't think Flemings makes it to #9 unless someone higher up agrees with my hope for Brown, sadly.

I think there are a lot of folks that think this about Brown.  He gets mocked in the top 8 regularly.  And Mara has been getting that treatment lately as well.  There may also be a totally unexpected pick in the top 8.  I think there is legit possibility Flemings is there.

[KillerLeft]

I think there is legit possibility Flemings is there.

Since I think he might just be my choice at #5, I would be ecstatic about that, of course. I hope you're right!

[Smitty]

Something for the nerds:

https://x.com/draftcasual/status/2057622638156214500?s=46&t=4w35gotNXtBJnqxbaL7e9w

https://x.com/draftcasual/status/2057624106321989877?s=46&t=4w35gotNXtBJnqxbaL7e9w

[Chicagojk]

https://x.com/mavsfilmroom/status/205791...76304?s=61

[hakeemfaan]

One of Flemings, Wagler, Brown will be there along with Burries. I can see teams jumping up or talking themselves into either one or both of Mara and Ament. Especially after Ament’s workout.

[DanSchwartzgan]

One of Flemings, Wagler, Brown will be there along with Burries. I can see teams jumping up or talking themselves into either one or both of Mara and Ament.  Especially after Ament’s workout.

Take Ament and find a way to move up for Okorie, Stirtz or Philon?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5B03Wc8AHI

[dirkfansince1998]

If there is one thing that doesn't influence my opinion it's an empty gym workout. Lively couldn't miss from three. DSJ had Curry range. And so on.

[Winter]

Take Ament and find a way to move up for Okorie, Stirtz or Philon?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5B03Wc8AHI

At this point, whatever the Mavs do during the draft will be well thought out. If Ament is the pick, then I'm going to figure they see something I don't.

[hakeemfaan]

If there is one thing that doesn't influence my opinion it's an empty gym workout. Lively couldn't miss from three. DSJ had Curry range. And so on.

True but factors such as growth, floor, ceiling all will come into play. A good GM will also not be overly influenced by an immediately productive guy if he feels that he is already closer to his ceiling. 

In Masai I trust.  No matter who he picks

[Chicagojk]

Peat and okorie are my two favorites if they can move up into the early 20’s…depending on pick 9.  Warts and all.  Schmitz is an Arizona grad too.

https://x.com/jordanrichardsc/status/205...37439?s=61


Peat has a lot of work ahead of him and he has a body where he will need to watch as he gets older.  I think he needs to trim up a little even now.  Although I think he will be a good pro eventually.