2026 NBA draft thread

[michaeltex]

The rankings are recent. The notes are last summer-ish. The comps they picked? Not sure.

About the ranking of Acuff at 10, I think he will get shoved higher (probably rightly so) because he'll get bumps from 2 things: good playoff performances, and he's a Calipari PG. Strong playoff performances create recency bias and raise expectations. Calipari PGs tend to be really good in the NBA, and NBA teams are aware of that fact.

I was just having the same thoughts about the effect of tournament play on a player's perceived skills and fit. I keep having Adam Morrison nightmares when thinking about a player who gets on a hot streak during the conference tournament and keeps it going during a couple of NCAA games, but is pretty meh in reality. I get really nervous when it's a one-and-done, because he just doesn't have a body of work to validate his game. 

I honestly think Acuff has shown he's a talent over the whole season and seems to be ready to take Arkansas as far as his supporting cast will let him. He's in a bracket with AZ, WI and BYU, so he'll have his chance to shine.

[mvossman]

I really like the Stephon Marbury comp for Acuff. He's the right size and has the right offensive game. He doesn't seem anything like Iverson to me, and only a little like Lillard.

I have a hard time with that comparison because Marbury couldn't shoot.  I realize it was a different time, but that's why I don't like to go back that far on comparisons.

[cow]

Boozer is better than his daddy.  The most common comp I have seen for him is Banchero, but I think he is better than that.

Also, more recent comps for Acuff are guys like Iverson and Lillard.  I think the Sexton comp was before he tore up the SEC.

If that's true, seems like Boozer is the safest of safe picks.  His dad was really good.

[mvossman]

If that's true, seems like Boozer is the safest of safe picks.  His dad was really good.

His dad played in a different time.  The concern with Boozer is that he is not quick enough to guard the perimeter well, but he also doesn't guard the rim (much bigger deal today than when his dad played).  But he just put up one of the best college seasons of all time.  Better than Flaggs. There is almost no doubt he will be a very strong offensive player and he probably is the safest pick.

[KillerLeft]

Am I off base in that when I look at Acuff's game, I think of Chris Paul?

I realize that when we think of CP3 we think of his old torn up late career and say, "Yuck," but remember and consider Paul his first 7-10 years in the league. Wouldn't that be a pretty significant draft acquisition?

I am not as familiar with Acuff as most here, but when I think Chris Paul, I think pick and roll. He might be the best pick and roll PG ever to play.if Acuff has that specific utility he’ll have an astonishing NBA career. That would be more exciting to me than Marbury or even Iverson, tbh.

[Winter]

I have a hard time with that comparison because Marbury couldn't shoot.  I realize it was a different time, but that's why I don't like to go back that far on comparisons.

I agree about the shooting stats, but Marbury was a muscular 6'2" and 180 lbs. He also averaged 8-9 assists a game and over 20 ppg.  And Marbury was playing in the same window of time as Iverson, so I'm not sure there's a "different time" thing with that comp.

I'm kind of curious about his stats in China, but I didn't look those up. That's definely a different game.

[mvossman]

I agree about the shooting stats, but Marbury was a muscular 6'2" and 180 lbs. He also averaged 8-9 assists a game and over 20 ppg.  And Marbury was playing in the same window of time as Iverson, so I'm not sure there's a "different time" thing with that comp.

I'm kind of curious about his stats in China, but I didn't look those up. That's definely a different game.

Agree on Iverson.  I like the Lillard comp (which is obviously a ceiling).

[Winter]

Agree on Iverson.  I like the Lillard comp (which is obviously a ceiling).

I looked around and Lilliard is probably the closest comp. It's hard to believe Lilliard weighs 200 lbs. but that's what he's listed at.

[mvossman]

I am not as familiar with Acuff as most here, but when I think Chris Paul, I think pick and roll. He might be the best pick and roll PG ever to play.if Acuff has that specific utility he’ll have an astonishing NBA career. That would be more exciting to me than Marbury or even Iverson, tbh.

I think all 4 of the guard prospects (Acuff, Flemings, Wagler, Brown) are considered high quality P&R players, but I don't think any is considered Chris Paul level.

[Chicagojk]

I haven't watched a ton of Flemings but I think he is a relatively safe prospect.   He has fit in real well with a deep team that had a lot of older returning players.   To be able to fit in so seamlessly is something he deserves credit for this year.   I think I feel the best about him and Acuff.  

I am really confused on Brown and Wagler.  I hope to watch both in the tourney.  I think both fit the profile of guys who can play off the ball.  The issue is neither has really excelled in that role.   Brown looks like a boom or bust guy to me.   I want to really like him, but he has not sold me yet.  

I loved what I read about Wagler.  I made mention that he could be a smaller Kon in the right environment.   Uses his body to get where he wants, smart player, makes open shots, will compete, etc.    The lack of athleticism just really concerns me.   From what I have read he has a real nice team around him that allows a spread court.

I think this tourney will be a real nice showing for Wagler and Brown.  Not saying scouts will drastically revise their rankings, but we should get a good test on both.  I am pretty solid with both Acuff and Flemings no matter what they do.

[Chicagojk]

I think one of the scariest prospects in the late first round is Alijah Arenas.  I think he will come out.   If you see him dribble the ball, he looks like a pro.   Good size too.  There are multiple issues though.   First the injuries prior to the season.  He came back and played 14 games this year and didn't try to jump in slowly.  He came out chucking.   Shooting 34% from the floor and 21% from three (he did shoot well from the free throw line).  Then you have the dad thing and you wonder if he is ever going to settle into a support role.

If healthy and it works out, he could outperform his pick range similar to what Jaden McDaniels did.  McDaniels had a bad freshman season in college after being a top 10 recruit.    Arenas is a different kind of player, but I think his upside is pretty big.   

At the moment, I would probably look at other guys if he made it to 30.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

His dad played in a different time.  The concern with Boozer is that he is not quick enough to guard the perimeter well, but he also doesn't guard the rim (much bigger deal today than when his dad played).  But he just put up one of the best college seasons of all time.  Better than Flaggs.  There is almost no doubt he will be a very strong offensive player and he probably is the safest pick.

Boozer is very good, but I don't think he's particularly quick or has the foot speed to defend on the perimeter, and he's not really athletic.  He's going to have problems defending the elite NBA PF's and staying in front of wings and guards on switches. He's going to be put in a ton of P & R's.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Another player to watch is Acuff's teammate, Billy Richmond III, at Arkansas. He's athletic, gets after it on defense, has a nose for the ball, and makes winning plays. Not a great spot-up shooter, however. He reminds me of Ron Holland II of the Pistons.

[Winter]

Another player to watch is Acuff's teammate, Billy Richmond III, at Arkansas. He's athletic, gets after it on defense, has a nose for the ball, and makes winning plays. Not a great spot-up shooter, however.  He reminds me of Ron Holland II of the Pistons.

Richmond probably won't get drafted, but he'll get picked up by someone afterward. I haven't seen him in any mock drafts. He's played much better for Arkansas the second half of the season. He was highly sought after coming out of high school, but his freshman season was pretty bad. He's been a different player this year. He may be one of those guys that needs more time.

[Chicagojk]

Another player to watch is Acuff's teammate, Billy Richmond III, at Arkansas. He's athletic, gets after it on defense, has a nose for the ball, and makes winning plays. Not a great spot-up shooter, however.  He reminds me of Ron Holland II of the Pistons.

Yeah I like him.   Probably a consideration for pick #30.  Although probably winds up being a pick in the 30's or early 40's.   He should probably return. Get that NIL and try in a year or two in weaker drafts.   He has really finished the season well.  

The guy on Arkansas who is fascination is Brazille.   6'10 and has some amazing Dunks.   He has shot the ball from three pretty well and moves really well.  Something is missing though when you watch him closely.   He is one of those guys who should be better or you think is better if you just watch the highlights.   His traits are really high though, and some team is going to gamble on him in the second round.  Probably a good gamble, but I am not sure if he is ever going to reach the heights where he should.

[Smitty]

The Mavericks, Pelicans, and Grizzlies are all tied in the win column with 23... Which is what matters in the race to the bottom. The Mavs and Pels have 13 games remaining. The Griz have 15. Attached are the remaining schedules for each, and the opponents below .500.  


Mavericks:  Opponents under .500: GSW, POR, MIL, CHI 
   


Pelicans:  Opponents under .500: POR, SAC, UTAH

  Screenshot 2026-03-17 081605.png (Size: 47.2 KB / Downloads: 82)


Grizzlies:  Opponents under .500: CHI, MIL, UTAH
   


So, we know there will be plenty of losses, the question is how many more can each team win.... Pels and Griz have only 3 opponents below .500 the rest of the way. Their common opponent, UTAH, might be the best tanker of them all. I think the Mavs can only win 1 more game to stay in the T6 tankathon spot and go on to a coin flip. Any more than that and they're most likely to finish with the 8th best odds, which has a 34.5% chance to stay there. A 32.1% chance to drop to 9. And a 26.3% chance to jump into the top 4. With just a small chance, 6.7%, to drop two spots and pick at 10.

The remaining 13/15 games for these 3 will be measured in Wins, not losses. I think the Mavs can get one more W and still maximize their chances. 
Worst case, they still get a Top-10 pick and have some assets to try and wheel and deal some...

[Chicagojk]

I think the Pelicans will zoom past us.  I am less certain we stay in front of the Grizzles.    I think the Jazz are long gone.  

Don't blame either of the Grizz or Jazz.  A top 3 pick drastically changes their future.    Especially the Jazz.    As of now, their appears to be a projected franchise player in the next two drafts...that could certainly change.   Neither market attracts star players so this may be the last opportunity for a while to get a projected #1 player.

[Smitty]

I think the Pelicans will zoom past us.  I am less certain we stay in front of the Grizzles.    I think the Jazz are long gone.  

I think the Pelicans can win 2 or 3 more. I think MEM only wins 1 more. Agree, the Jazz at 5 are not even in consideration. Same for the Bulls at 9.

It will be a 6-7-8 finish for the Mavs.

   

   

[mvossman]

So, we know there will be plenty of losses, the question is how many more can each team win.... Pels and Griz have only 3 opponents below .500 the rest of the way. Their common opponent, UTAH, might be the best tanker of them all. I think the Mavs can only win 1 more game to stay in the T6 tankathon spot and go on to a coin flip. Any more than that and they're most likely to finish with the 8th best odds, which has a 34.5% chance to stay there. A 32.1% chance to drop to 9. And a 26.3% chance to jump into the top 4. With just a small chance, 6.7%, to drop two spots and pick at 10.

The remaining 13/15 games for these 3 will be measured in Wins, not losses. I think the Mavs can get one more W and still maximize their chances. 
Worst case, they still get a Top-10 pick and have some assets to try and wheel and deal some...

Its amazing how big of a difference 6th vs 8th is.  In the past I had focused on the importance of an extra 10% chance to get a top 4 pick, but after looking at the players I think there is a big separation between those two spots.  6th spot has a good chance of getting one of Flemings/Acuff and the 8th spot has next to no chance.

[Smitty]

Its amazing how big of a difference 6th vs 8th is.  In the past I had focused on the importance of an extra 10% chance to get a top 4 pick, but after looking at the players I think there is a big separation between those two spots.  6th spot has a good chance of getting one of Flemings/Acuff and the 8th spot has next to no chance.

Yeah, but even if they finish best case scenario at the 6 spot. They're far more likely to jump in the top 4 or slide back to 7 or 8 than stay at 6. Kind of crazy that the 6th spot only has an 8.6% chance of actually picking at #6.

There's no way to know how teams stack the guards in this draft. Even this board is all over the place. Either way, I think for me the drop off is really at 9. The top-4 are pretty locked in, then the stack of Guards. That rounds out the top 8 for me. The order won't really matter if the Mavs are getting the last man standing...