2026 NBA draft thread

[mvossman]

The question is why is he taking harder shots?

Its a valid question.  I don't know if its because his team sucks or he has a problem with shot selection.  I do know that three point percentage is a very noisy stat and a partial season of college is a fairly small sample.  In the pros volume is as important as percentage (at least from a floor spacing standpoint) but there is definitely a point at which you reach chucking status.

[Smitty]

@GoodmanHoops
UPDATED MOCK DRAFT:

After talking to nearly a dozen NBA execs, here’s a mock first-round board.

Many NBA execs are torn right now on the No. 1 pick.

[Smitty]

My dream of getting Isaiah Evans at 29/30 is slowly fading...

[Winter]

My dream of getting Isaiah Evans at 29/30 is slowly fading...

That's like five spots higher than I've ever seen him.

[Chicagojk]

I think if Acuff is 6'3 that he in in competition for pick #5.  I think the concern is that he is 6'0 or 6'1.   i think that is why he has been lower on draft boards earlier in the year. We can argue if that two inches matter or not, but it is important in todays game.

I think that is probably why Brown is sometimes ahead of him. He is probably 6'4, but fits more in that prototype teams want. On the court this year, I think Acuff has clearly been the better player in college.

[Chicagojk]

My dream of getting Isaiah Evans at 29/30 is slowly fading...

I think there is a little drop off around 15ish in my early reading.  After the top 3, then 1, then 5-9, and lastly 9-15ish.    After that I think it gets scrambled.   I actually really like some guys that I see mocked in the second round.  I would be fine with them at 29/30.     

It is tricky, I may very well fall in love with one of the center or small point guards, but at the moment I am really hoping one of the wings fall.

[Scott41theMavs]

@GoodmanHoops
UPDATED MOCK DRAFT:

After talking to nearly a dozen NBA execs, here’s a mock first-round board.

Many NBA execs are torn right now on the No. 1 pick.

Acuff belongs in the top 8, not Ament. So many prospects that fit Ament's profile have amounted to nothing in the league. 

But put Acuff at #8, and there's a far more precipitous drop between 8 and 9 than there is between 3 and 4 or 4 and 5. Mavs need to secure the #6 "tank seed" to make sure the probability of landing 9 or lower is as unlikely as... winning the lottery was last year.

Edit: just looked at the tankathon.com pick odds. If the Mavs stay at 7, they have a 13.2% of finishing 9th or lower. I am serious, I view getting the 9th pick or lower as very close to just as disastrous as being a Pacer fan and ending up with the 5th or 6th pick. Losing out on the top 8 bonanza is like losing the pick - unless some sucker makes a really stupid reach (like Ament). If Dallas falls/climbs to 6th, they only have a 3.8% chance at 9th or lower. Tank, tank, tank. Lose all of the rest of the games if necessary.

As for the Pacers, they have a 47.8% chance of ceding their pick to the Clipps even if they finish 2nd tank seed. If they catch the Kings, those odds actually increase by a tenth of a percent. Didn't realize it was statistically better to finish 2nd than 1st.

[khaled1987]

Big game for Acuff tonight

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/RGA9X7rMwU

At this point, I think he belongs to the top 5, maybe even top 4

[DL2RimRocker]

At this point, I think he belongs to the top 5, maybe even top 4

His defensive liabilities cant be overlooked.
I think he is projected best in the 6-10 range.

No way do I take Acuff before Flemings and the other projected top 4.

Now a serious case can be made to take him at 6 imo.

[F Gump]

As for the Pacers,... If they catch the Kings, those odds actually increase by a tenth of a percent. Didn't realize it was statistically better to finish 2nd than 1st.

It's not. The Pacers' odds of being drawn for somewhere in pick 1-4 (which allows them to keep their pick) will be EXACTLY the same if they are seeded 1, 2, or 3. It's about a 52% chance to keep it, in any of those slots. Their odds lessen for each rung lower than that and would be lower than 50-50 (about 48% in slot 4, and nearing 40% in slots 5-6, and lower yet the further you go down the list.)

[Scott41theMavs]

It's not. The Pacers' odds of being drawn for somewhere in pick 1-4 (which allows them to keep their pick) will be EXACTLY the same if they are seeded 1, 2, or 3. It's about a 52% chance to keep it, in any of those slots. Their odds lessen for each rung lower than that and would be lower than 50-50 (about 48% in slot 4, and nearing 40% in slots 5-6, and lower yet the further you go down the list.)

So you're saying the tankathon graph is incorrect. Hmmm. https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

[F Gump]

So you're saying the tankathon graph is incorrect. Hmmm. https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

I presume their odds are accurate. But they are rounding their odds to the nearest .1 (one-tenth) which means when you add more than one of them together, it can give you a slightly skewed total because of the rounding. 

For example, if you have 4.6 in one column (rounded up from 4.55), and you have 4.6 in another column (rounded up from 4.55), when you add the rounded numbers 4.6 and 4.6, then you get 9.2. But the actual total of those numbers (4.55 + 4.55) is 9.1. So when you think it's a total of 9.2, you are off by .1%. If you had the full numbers, rather than rounded ones in the chart, then when you added them together you would see they come to the same total.

I'm not going to do the math to figure the odds to the nearest thousandth on all the lottery possibilities, but it might be something like this before rounding, on the odds for 5-6-7 -- with the tankathon chart number in the brackets.
Pick 1 - 47.87 [47.9] -- chart number total would be 47.9
Pick 2 - 27.84 [27.8], 20.03 [20.0] -- chart number total would be 47.8 (27.8 + 20.0)
Pick 3 - 14.83 [14.8], 26.03 [26.0], 7.02 [7.0] -- chart number total would be 47.8 (14.8 +26.0 + 7.0)

As you can see, the tankathon numbers are rounded correctly. But even though the actual total odds are identical (47.87 in every case), the result of adding the rounded numbers doesn't always come out the same.

[khaled1987]

His defensive liabilities cant be overlooked.

When you pick top 5, it is almost exclusively with the aim of getting an offensive juggernaut, Acuff has the biggest chance of being that outside of the top 3.

I feel that folks here treats the draft like free agency, looking at their fit and weaknesses in short term and how you win a chip with them, which is rarely the way anyone approach the draft. Teams select for highest upside guy with the idea of figuring it out later. Highest upside goes for the offensive end in 90% of the cases.

[Winter]

When you pick top 5, it is almost exclusively with the aim of getting an offensive juggernaut, Acuff has the biggest chance of being that outside of the top 3.

I feel that folks here treats the draft like free agency, looking at their fit and weaknesses in short term and how you win a chip with them, which is rarely the way anyone approach the draft. Teams select for highest upside guy with the idea of figuring it out later. Highest upside goes for the offensive end in 90% of the cases.

One of the things to like about Acuff is that he's predictably good. NBA teams will likely feel comfortable with his stats no matter where he goes.  He's gets close to his averages every game, and he's actually been slightly better against SEC competition. 

And if you've seen an interview with Acuff, you can see he's deadly serious about his game. Outside of the top 4 or 5 picks, he's probably the easiest player to find a good fit with a team regardless of the actual spot. Neither Wagler, Ament or Brown have been as predictable.

[vfromlmf]

Ament is a tough one for me. I've seen him play twice and he looked a step slow in the first game, both in-game processing and flat out speed. But he's a long strider, so he's probably not as slow as he looks. The second game he got hurt. He was a consensus preseason top-5 pick and most of the draftniks still have him in the top-9. He's raw but fits the archetype everyone wants. Big wing, can defend, handle and shoot.

Good write up from the No Ceilings guys for those interested https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/nate-ame...pectations

[mvossman]

Ament is a tough one for me. I've seen him play twice and he looked a step slow in the first game, both in-game processing and flat out speed. But he's a long strider, so he's probably not as slow as he looks. The second game he got hurt. He was a consensus preseason top-5 pick and most of the draftniks still have him in the top-9. He's raw but fits the archetype everyone wants. Big wing, can defend, handle and shoot.

Good write up from the No Ceilings guys for those interested https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/nate-ame...pectations

What the Mavs really need with this pick is elite creation.  Its the most valuable, hardest to find, sought after trait in an NBA player, and this is their best chance to get it.  Ament has a much less chance of being an elite creator than the 8 guys in front of him.  I prefer two way players but that creation is so hard to find I am willing to sacrifice some defense to improve my chances of getting it, which is why I am getting more and more intrigued with Acuff.

[vfromlmf]

Vecenie and others seem to draw a clear line at Ament as the top 9 have separated themselves. According to him, Ament is the last "surefire lottery pick" and guys below him like Burries fall into the bucket of "looks like a good top-20 pick".

I'm still confident the Mavs will pass the Pels and land at 6th best odds so I'm trying to get comfortable with all the top-9, but obviously things can and probably will change after the Tournament and pre-draft workouts.

[mvossman]

Vecenie and others seem to draw a clear line at Ament as the top 9 have separated themselves. According to him, Ament is the last "surefire lottery pick" and guys below him like Burries fall into the bucket of "looks like a good top-20 pick".

I'm still confident the Mavs will pass the Pels and land at 6th best odds so I'm trying to get comfortable with all the top-9, but obviously things can and probably will change after the Tournament and pre-draft workouts.

I'm getting a little worried with Flagg back and Klay and Middleton playing well that we are going to win more games than we want to down the stretch.

[Chicagojk]

Ament is a tough one for me. I've seen him play twice and he looked a step slow in the first game, both in-game processing and flat out speed. But he's a long strider, so he's probably not as slow as he looks. The second game he got hurt. He was a consensus preseason top-5 pick and most of the draftniks still have him in the top-9. He's raw but fits the archetype everyone wants. Big wing, can defend, handle and shoot.

Good write up from the No Ceilings guys for those interested https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/nate-ame...pectations

Yeah, he is a tricky one.  Top 5 recruit coming into college.   Got off to a slow start but has picked it up.  His highlights still look a little off to me.    I think how you see him on defense will show you how high he goes.   If he is a guy who can guard the wings and guards, he has a lot more interest to me.  If he is mainly a PF, then I would have less interest.

A few weeks ago, I watched his highlights from high school.  Something that stuck out to me despite being a head taller in a lot of highlights, is he has a lot plays when he gets into the lane and the shots hit a lot of rim before falling in?  Is that a good or bad thing?  Is it a strength issue?   It just seems like if you get 5-8 feet from the rim and are bigger than everyone that your shot should look much easier than that.

[Scott41theMavs]

I'm getting a little worried with Flagg back and Klay and Middleton playing well that we are going to win more games than we want to down the stretch.

The Grizz and the Pels are the concerns. We aren't going to catch the top five even if we go winless the rest of the way - they'll do in the most absolute of terms whatever is necessary to lose enough that we don't catch them. Kidd needs to do the same to make sure that the Grizz don't catch us and that the non-tanking Pels do catch us.