2026 NBA draft thread

[Scott41theMavs]

MY THOUGHTS ...

1 My hope is to get ONE top player in this draft. Just one guy who will be a star, or a top-tier starter for years.

2 If they do that, and nothing more, imo it's a win. A huge win. Because that result, even with a top-10 pick, is not a given -- looking back the last 10 years, most drafts only have 2-3 players from the top 10 that turn out to be very good, and some end up having zero star players at all. 

3 Don't draft for need or for fit, when it comes to a star potential. You take the best. If you end up with 2-3 who are top NBA caliber, they will make each other better and fit just fine, because they aren't limited in how they can impact a game. Top players can always fit, until you already have 3 star level players (and whoever has that?). They need another star guy first and foremost. 

4 I strongly differ with some, who want to chase multiple picks. Typically a huge mistake. Quantity does NOT come anywhere close to giving up quality. That means if they find a player who looks like a winner, they must grab him. Don't get cute and trade back, because you think no one else will take him and you can somehow get 2-for-1. Trading 1 star for 2 pieces of junk, by getting cute, can set you back for a decade. See Giannis, and the Larkin/Ledo prizes they got instead. 

5 What this team really needs the most, ideally, would be a top level ball-handling creator, who can play both ends, has some size, can make 3s -- but if that guy is in this draft, imo he hasn't really shown himself yet. All of these PG/G types have multiple flaws and tons of inconsistency, and bust potential. OTOH, not sure the available forwards will necessarily be any better to try. Somewhere in these players will be some good ones, is the hope, but having the guy with an eye for talent is going to be worth gold.

I have to raise my eyebrow at your #2. The whole narrative on this draft is that it's *far* better than other recent drafts, both at the top and in terms of depth. Were the army of scouts and pundits who evaluated this draft wrong? I'd say you're the extreme perspective in this thread, but many others who have posted since seem to be agreeing with you, declaring x guy projected in the top 10 as "big bust potential" or "big holes in his game" or some such. The pundits are saying that, if you draft in the top 20, you ought to be able to at least get a guy who should be a perennial starter or, minimally, rotation player. I know you're talking "star," but is that re: a superstar, a multiple All-Star game player, or a name guy who doesn't necessarily make many ASG's but is part of the core of a championship team? I dunno, maybe they're all wrong. I'm just observing that your take is a quite bold one given what the supposedly knowledgeable are saying about this draft.

[Winter]

Could be similar since we generated the TPE in the AD trade and could use it to take in a player and get paid a pick to do so.  What might be different here is we could add the 30th pick to the deal so the other team isn't just selling a pick to move salary, they are moving down in the same draft to move salary.

That's the kind of thing the FO should be exploring. It appears there are several tools available - namely a lower first round pick and some trade exceptions. There are also a few other teams with multiple FR picks. 

But this may be a unique draft, and it's hard to know how eager other teams will be to move off their spots.

[Chicagojk]

I have seen some people say they really like this kid. Supposedly a real good defender too

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVHN8l4ET...cXQweTgwcA==

[F Gump]

I have to raise my eyebrow at your #2. The whole narrative on this draft is that it's *far* better than other recent drafts, both at the top and in terms of depth. Were the army of scouts and pundits who evaluated this draft wrong? I'd say you're the extreme perspective in this thread, but many others who have posted since seem to be agreeing with you, declaring x guy projected in the top 10 as "big bust potential" or "big holes in his game" or some such. The pundits are saying that, if you draft in the top 20, you ought to be able to at least get a guy who should be a perennial starter or, minimally, rotation player. I know you're talking "star," but is that re: a superstar, a multiple All-Star game player, or a name guy who doesn't necessarily make many ASG's but is part of the core of a championship team? I dunno, maybe they're all wrong. I'm just observing that your take is a quite bold one given what the supposedly knowledgeable are saying about this draft.

I understand your pushback and what the pundits are saying.

My cutoff line, which I didn't make clear, is getting a top starter on a very good team. A player you MUST have when he ends his rookie contract. A star is the goal although not the expectation. I think we are all expecting that you are almost sure to get that caliber of player in the top 10, and if we can get into the top 5, a real shot at a true star.

And yes I am questioning whether it being a "far better draft" will translate into some sort of assurance of an outcome like that.  

Example. The last "great" draft (per the pundits) was 2023. Yet, as it turned out, in the top 10 of that highly touted draft, there was only 1 player who has turned into an all-star (Wemby) and maybe 2-3 who you can see as a top-end starter for your team. The rest are guys who won't get a max extension, and are probably not seen as central to their team's future. Some are major busts. And that was prophesied as a "great" draft year (just like this one).

[Scott41theMavs]

I understand your pushback and what the pundits are saying.

My cutoff line, which I didn't make clear, is getting a top starter on a very good team. A player you MUST have when he ends his rookie contract. A star is the goal although not the expectation. I think we are all expecting that you are almost sure to get that caliber of player in the top 10, and if we can get into the top 5, a real shot at a true star.

And yes I am questioning whether it being a "far better draft" will translate into some sort of assurance of an outcome like that.  

Example. The last "great" draft (per the pundits) was 2023. Yet, as it turned out, in the top 10 of that highly touted draft, there was only 1 player who has turned into an all-star (Wemby) and maybe 2-3 who you can see as a top-end starter for your team. The rest are guys who won't get a max extension, and are probably not seen as central to their team's future. Some are major busts. And that was prophesied as a "great" draft year (just like this one).

I would argue that most of the top 10 in '23 are very good players. Scoot is the glaring exception, which ought to give some pause given how highly touted he was pre-draft.

Edit: okay, I looked at minutes, scoring, and shooting percentages for those guys, and 7-9 are definitely meh. Wallace doesn't get to play enough due to the team he plays for, but I have a feeling he'd be showing out for a better team. Miller, the Thompsons, and Black are all very good players.

[Mavs2021]

If you look at the last few drafts then teams have gotten really really good at finding the best players at the top of the draft.

2021:
Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Barnes, Suggs, Giddey, Kuminga, Wagner.


Better picks later: Sengun (and I had him top 5), Murphy III, Jalen Johnson

 2022:

Banchero, Holmgren, Smith Jr., Murray, Ivey, Mathurin, Sharpe, Daniels.

Better picks later: Jalen Williams, Jalen Duren

2023: Wembanyama, Miller, Henderson, Thompson brothers, Black, Coulibaly, Walker

Better picks later: George, Lively (maybe)

What I´m saying is you better be damn sure you got ALL three players identified that turned out better than the the top 8 picks and that the other teams didn´t also see what you saw.  The "busts" at the top end have been really minimized by teams recently. 

2024 is too early too call, but it seems like Sarr and Castle will be the two best players from that weak class and nobody stands out as a huge missed opportunity later in the draft.

[Mavs2021]

Regarding the whole Peterson situation. I´d be really worried to pick him. Bill Simmons said he reminds him too much of Ben Simmons with regards to caring for the game/giving effort. That it would be better, if Peterson was actually injured rather than not caring/giving effort. 

And that´s where this all falls apart for me with so many discussions recently. No you actually want him to not give a flying f*** about college and be so arrogant that he just does not care about the negative perception he creates. That he dials in, when the NBA starts. That´s already not a great look, but the other way IS FAR WORSE. I still don´t believe Ben Simmons never cared. This is Ben Simmons recent AI report card:

Ben Simmons has focused heavily on his physical conditioning during his rehabilitation from back injuries
, with reports indicating a, "locked in" approach to his health and fitness as of late 2023 and 2024. 

• Rehabilitation Focus: Following multiple back surgeries—including a microscopic partial discectomy in March 2024—Simmons has engaged in intensive training, including Pilates and using specialized, weight-reducing treadmills (OTG) to manage his weight and load on his back.
  
• Physical Changes: While often photographed looking "ripped and trim" during offseason training, his journey has been more about managing injuries and returning to peak physical condition rather than a public, dramatic weight loss transformation, frequently appearing in videos working on his shot.
  
• Recent Status: As of late 2025, reports suggest he has been working to become "bulletproof" in the gym, aiming to get to the best possible physical shape to compete.
  

The guy basically hid a chronic back problem in college and the NBA behind "a not caring attitude" and to this day even hardcore fans believe his love for the game was the problem. Then you look at MPJ, who dropped like 10-12 spots due to a bad back in the draft and if it had manifested the same way it did for Ben Simmons, he´d probably have lost $50-80M on his rookie deal and first extension.

So if I had a chronic calf problem, I´d totally play up the idea that I´m so crazy and arrogant that I refuse to play in college, work out and provide medicals. Worst case I get picked 3rd, because of some immaturity issues. People forget this is generationally life-altering money and agents need to plot the best way to make their client the most money. Don´t you think an agent would take him aside and tell him, that he might want to slow down on the crazy/lazy a bit.

[Winter]

I think guys like Boozer and Flagg were groomed for early NBA careers before they entered college. Most of that top 5 group have been getting NBA advice since high school. And I agree that the top 10 look more solid now than they did a a few decades ago.

Would Cherokee Parks be drafted today? He was the 12th pick in the 1995 draft. And yet the 1995 draft was terrific in the first round. Almost half the first round in 1995 had solid NBA careers and a few all-stars. There were Garnett, Stoudamire, Finley, Stackhouse, McDyess, Rasheed Wallace, Corliss Williamson, Theo Ratliff and about 10 other recognizable names (Brent Barry, Alan Henderson, Gary Trent, "Big Country" Reeves).

And the Mavs picked Cherokee Parks.

I think it's really an impossible thing to predict outside of that top 5-10, but those picks look pretty good historically.

In 1996, all of the top 10 had great careers except one

Iverson, Camby, Shareef Rahim, Marbury, Antoine Walker, Lorenzon Wright, Kerry Kittles, Eric Dampier.

The lone exception that year was a guy name Samaki Walker. Ouch.

[vfromlmf]

Peterson gives me Kawhi vibes. And some of Self's comments make it sound like he's not coachable. Aloof. Better than everyone. Not a good teammate. Have no idea if it's true but that's what I worry about.

[DL2RimRocker]

Regarding the whole Peterson situation. I´d be really worried to pick him. Bill Simmons said he reminds him too much of Ben Simmons with regards to caring for the game/giving effort. That it would be better, if Peterson was actually injured rather than not caring/giving effort. 

And that´s where this all falls apart for me with so many discussions recently. No you actually want him to not give a flying f*** about college and be so arrogant that he just does not care about the negative perception he creates. That he dials in, when the NBA starts. That´s already not a great look, but the other way IS FAR WORSE. I still don´t believe Ben Simmons never cared. This is Ben Simmons recent AI report card:

Ben Simmons has focused heavily on his physical conditioning during his rehabilitation from back injuries
, with reports indicating a, "locked in" approach to his health and fitness as of late 2023 and 2024. 

• Rehabilitation Focus: Following multiple back surgeries—including a microscopic partial discectomy in March 2024—Simmons has engaged in intensive training, including Pilates and using specialized, weight-reducing treadmills (OTG) to manage his weight and load on his back.
  
• Physical Changes: While often photographed looking "ripped and trim" during offseason training, his journey has been more about managing injuries and returning to peak physical condition rather than a public, dramatic weight loss transformation, frequently appearing in videos working on his shot.
  
• Recent Status: As of late 2025, reports suggest he has been working to become "bulletproof" in the gym, aiming to get to the best possible physical shape to compete.
  

The guy basically hid a chronic back problem in college and the NBA behind "a not caring attitude" and to this day even hardcore fans believe his love for the game was the problem. Then you look at MPJ, who dropped like 10-12 spots due to a bad back in the draft and if it had manifested the same way it did for Ben Simmons, he´d probably have lost $50-80M on his rookie deal and first extension.

So if I had a chronic calf problem, I´d totally play up the idea that I´m so crazy and arrogant that I refuse to play in college, work out and provide medicals. Worst case I get picked 3rd, because of some immaturity issues. People forget this is generationally life-altering money and agents need to plot the best way to make their client the most money. Don´t you think an agent would take him aside and tell him, that he might want to slow down on the crazy/lazy a bit.

The same concern existed with Edward's and that didnt turn out so bad.

I agree I would stay clear of Peterson if I had the first pick for the same reasons you mention. As a Jayhawks fan I feel he has really crapped on his team and I have more fun watching them without him. Melvin Council Jr is the engine of that team and his game is always elevated when Peterson is out.

I personally think Peterson is managing himself because the stakes are high. Cant say I blame him but it is a strategy that could easily backfire.

He could be the next Fultz if he goes #1, but he could also be the next Edward's. I'm beginning to think it will be closer to to former.

[Dirknows]

The same concern existed with Edward's and that didnt turn out so bad.

I agree I would stay clear of Peterson if I had the first pick for the same reasons you mention. As a Jayhawks fan I feel he has really crapped on his team and I have more fun watching them without him. Melvin Council Jr is the engine of that team and his game is always elevated when Peterson is out.

I personally think Peterson is managing himself because the stakes are high. Cant say I blame him but it is a strategy that could easily backfire.

He could be the next Fultz if he goes #1, but he could also be the next Edward's. I'm beginning to think it will be closer to to former.

Peterson is so much more talented than Fultz ever was. He is way closer to Ant than Fultz and I don't think it's particularly close.

[Chicagojk]

Total snap judgement after watching a few games and not much research, but Brown Jr is the exact prototype I want. Bigger guard with athleticism. The issue for me is Acuff is just better. Th measurement for Acuff is going to be huge. I think he gets better shots than Brown, gets his teammates better looks and just looks better. The issue is his size but to my eye Acuff is better now.

[mvossman]

If you look at the last few drafts then teams have gotten really really good at finding the best players at the top of the draft.

2021:
Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Barnes, Suggs, Giddey, Kuminga, Wagner.


Better picks later: Sengun (and I had him top 5), Murphy III, Jalen Johnson

 2022:

Banchero, Holmgren, Smith Jr., Murray, Ivey, Mathurin, Sharpe, Daniels.

Better picks later: Jalen Williams, Jalen Duren

2023: Wembanyama, Miller, Henderson, Thompson brothers, Black, Coulibaly, Walker

Better picks later: George, Lively (maybe)

What I´m saying is you better be damn sure you got ALL three players identified that turned out better than the the top 8 picks and that the other teams didn´t also see what you saw.  The "busts" at the top end have been really minimized by teams recently. 

2024 is too early too call, but it seems like Sarr and Castle will be the two best players from that weak class and nobody stands out as a huge missed opportunity later in the draft.

Sometimes I think we give a little too much credit to scouting.  I think a lot of times when a team hits it big on a later pick, its not they guy they would have chosen if they had an earlier pick.  Some teams have better scouting than others, but there is a lot of luck involved too.  There are just too many variables to get it right every time.

[mvossman]

Total snap judgement after watching a few games and not much research, but Brown Jr is the exact prototype I want.  Bigger guard with athleticism.  The issue for me is Acuff is just better.  Th measurement for Acuff is going to be huge.  I think he gets better shots than Brown, gets his teammates better looks and just looks better.  The issue is his size but to my eye Acuff is better now.

He looks to be a much better shooter too.  But I bet he doesn't end up measuring his 6' 3" listing either.  Of all the listed measurables his seem the most bloated.  At least he has a solid build.  Shorter guards can make up for lack of height with BBIQ and strength (like a Fred VanVleet).  There is a line between defensively challenged good offensive players who are 6th man and defensively challenged elite offensive players who are stars.  Of the PG in the 5-9 range, I think Acuff has the best chance to hit elite offensive ceiling.

[F Gump]

Some teams have better scouting than others, but there is a lot of luck involved too.  There are just too many variables to get it right every time.

It must be some sort of voodoo how some teams seem to get "lucky" way more regularly than the others. The Mavs need to hire a GM who has proven experience in "getting lucky" when they pick. Picking in the top 10 (or even the top 5) is not the answer, if you don't have one of those "always-lucky" GM's.

[mvossman]

It must be some sort of voodoo how some teams seem to get "lucky" way more regularly than the others. The Mavs need to hire a GM who has proven experience in "getting lucky" when they pick. Picking in the top 10 (or even the top 5) is not the answer, if you don't have one of those "always-lucky" GM's.

Its like you don't even read the post.  Yes some scouting teams are better than others (which I literally stated in the post).  Now tell what the best scouting department is and go look at their history.  On most of their picks you can find somebody better later in the draft and you will find some full on busts too.

[Mavs2021]

Sometimes I think we give a little too much credit to scouting.  I think a lot of times when a team hits it big on a later pick, its not they guy they would have chosen if they had an earlier pick.  Some teams have better scouting than others, but there is a lot of luck involved too.  There are just too many variables to get it right every time.

I agree and disagree.

I still think you can identify the teams that generally draft better than others, but another factor is player development/environment.

Look at Omax in Memphis this year. He´s shooting nearly 50/40/90. He has improved his shooting percentages by 8/8/16 and it´s not like he played any meaningful high attention minutes with the Mavs either. So it took Memphis less than year to unlock something the Mavs never could. Hardy never improved either. He was a good 3pt shooter, but he never improved passing, decision-making or finishing at the rim.

I think the Mavs are actually pretty good at drafting, but they should focus on "finished" products like Luka, Brunson, Flagg, Crowder or Howard. On the other hand, when they took athletes that needed big flaws or holes in their games fixed like Hardy/Omax have no clue how to. I see no necessity for Lively to develop a 3pt shot, but I also would not hold my breath for the Mavs to teach him how to like a Brooklyn did with Brook Lopez.

[ThisIStheYear]

Total snap judgement after watching a few games and not much research, but Brown Jr is the exact prototype I want.  Bigger guard with athleticism.  The issue for me is Acuff is just better.  Th measurement for Acuff is going to be huge.  I think he gets better shots than Brown, gets his teammates better looks and just looks better.  The issue is his size but to my eye Acuff is better now.

Brown gives me DSJ vibes.  He’ll look great and flash but you’ll look up at the end of the season and he’s shooting 42%. I don’t trust his efficiency, and I don’t believe that inefficient players help you unless they’re just 1st team all defense caliber. Acuff is far more efficient, as is Wagler and a number of other players.

[mvossman]

I agree and disagree.

I still think you can identify the teams that generally draft better than others, but another factor is player development/environment.

Look at Omax in Memphis this year. He´s shooting nearly 50/40/90. He has improved his shooting percentages by 8/8/16 and it´s not like he played any meaningful high attention minutes with the Mavs either. So it took Memphis less than year to unlock something the Mavs never could. Hardy never improved either. He was a good 3pt shooter, but he never improved passing, decision-making or finishing at the rim.

I think the Mavs are actually pretty good at drafting, but they should focus on "finished" products like Luka, Brunson, Flagg, Crowder or Howard. On the other hand, when they took athletes that needed big flaws or holes in their games fixed like Hardy/Omax have no clue how to. I see no necessity for Lively to develop a 3pt shot, but I also would not hold my breath for the Mavs to teach him how to like a Brooklyn did with Brook Lopez.

Another reason why they should have taken Bane over Green.

[KillerLeft]

Another reason why they should have taken Bane over Green.

It's so funny. They were about to take him with the next pick, and someone traded up and stole him. At the time, I thought it was just bad luck, but you're right - Bane should never have made it past their first pick.