MAVS NEWS:

[DallasMaverick]

I'm confused. You wanted them to win?

We want them to win.

And we want them to tank.

And we want them to play all the young guys.

And we want the veterans to lead the way.

And we want them to push the ball.

And we want them to work on their half-court playoff-style offense.

And we want them to put pressure on the hoop.

And we want them to shoot threes. As long as they make them.

It’s really quite simple, you see.

[mvossman]

Yeah, this ^ gets overlooked a lot in the discussions. If you have a strong goal of "no less than ___", then to have a strong (although less than certain) chance to get that, you have to enter the lottery at about no worse than 2 slots better. Even that route, where you tank and "overshoot" your real target by a couple of slots, offers no guarantee.

The Mavs current lottery slot is 7. If they enter the lottery at 7, their most likely outcome is 8th (about 34%) and about 14% to land 9-11. They would have total odds of a bit better than 50-50 to land 1,2,3,4, or stay the same at 7, but also about 50-50 to get worse than 7.

If the Mavs cut-off line where they want to draft is 7, they need to be in lottery slot 5 or better. At 5, their most likely outcome is 7th (about 27%) and they have total odds of about 64% to exceed their goal and land 1-6 and about 9% to fail and land 8-9. To be GUARANTEED to get no worse than 7, they have to enter the lottery at seed 3 or better.

And if the Mavs cut-off line where they want to draft is 6, they want to be in lottery slot 4 or better. At 4, their most likely outcome is 6th (about 26%) and they have total odds of about 55% to land 1-5 and about 19% to land 7-8.  To be GUARANTEED to get no worse than 6, they have to enter the lottery at seed 2 or better.

Fortunately, the Mavs know all this. UN-fortunately, so does every other team in the top 10 of the tanking race.

We obviously want to get as low as we can if no other reason to increase the odds of landing top 4, but I would say the secondary goal is top 9.  Seems like there is a bit of a drop off after 9.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

Based on the schedules and the other Lottery team's rosters, it wouldn't shock me at all if the Mavs finished in the top (er...bottom?) 4 or 5.

I think if, in the next four games, they can go 1-3 or even 0-4, they'll be in a great position. After these four games the schedule gets brutal with top teams in a ridiculously tight calendar. This is gonna be like 2018.

[Scott41theMavs]

Well reality is coming in hard.  This is a bad team.  They fought hard, but Minny could turn it on/turn if off when needed.    I really could care less about almost everyone who played for the Mavs yesterday.  In the first half when they were down quite a bit, it was depressing our lineup was exclusively over 30 guys (for the most part) during a stretch.   

Mavs have a lot of work to do this offseason to get better and better fitting parts.

Nah, several of the players played well last night. And that's a good and important thing.

Look, I'm not sure how aware the folks here (and Mav fans in general) of how bad the Mavs predicament is moving forward (and of course it would be exponentially worse if we didn't have Flagg - at least 7 years' climb back to hope, let alone relevance). We're counting on Flagg, whoever we draft, Kyrie, and whatever the other players we have or can obtain this offseason to bring this team back to relevance next year. We don't have our draft picks for the next. Four. Years. Teams like OKC, the Spurs, the Rockets, and some other playoff teams are not built on two high lottery players, but on four or five. In the 2031-32 season, i.e. the first season after we have our draft pick, Coop will be 24-25 years old, probably solidly into what should be a very long prime. And Kyrie will likely have retired. If our current non-Coop/non-Kyrie players are that bad, how are we going to build a team around Cooper in the intervening years? I think nearly all of the guys who played last night (plus Max and Nembhard, but not Martin or Johnson) have some value, and can at least be penciled in as rotation players for at least a play-in team. There might be some value in retaining Bagley and/or Middleton depending on price.

For the Mavs to be a team that at least threatens to make it to the conference semis every year by '29-'30 or so, it's going to take 
1) nailing the living $hit out of this year's draft pick,
2) getting a top five in the league GM (likely before the draft, due to the importance of #1), and
3) our current players outside of the "big three" (Coop, the draft pick, and Kyrie) having strong value, either on-court or in trade value, or #2 isn't likely to matter much.

We can't do a Nellie (stripping things down to brass tacks while somehow convincing Filthy to stick around in the midst of the poopshow) because we aren't missing one draft pick, but four. Building the team is going to be extremely hard work.

[Smitty]

Nah, several of the players played well last night. And that's a good and important thing.

Look, I'm not sure how aware the folks here (and Mav fans in general) of how bad the Mavs predicament is moving forward (and of course it would be exponentially worse if we didn't have Flagg - at least 7 years' climb back to hope, let alone relevance). We're counting on Flagg, whoever we draft, Kyrie, and whatever the other players we have or can obtain this offseason to bring this team back to relevance next year. We don't have our draft picks for the next. Four. Years. Teams like OKC, the Spurs, the Rockets, and some other playoff teams are not built on two high lottery players, but on four or five. In the 2031-32 season, i.e. the first season after we have our draft pick, Coop will be 24-25 years old, probably solidly into what should be a very long prime. And Kyrie will likely have retired. If our current non-Coop/non-Kyrie players are that bad, how are we going to build a team around Cooper in the intervening years? I think nearly all of the guys who played last night (plus Max and Nembhard, but not Martin or Johnson) have some value, and can at least be penciled in as rotation players for at least a play-in team. There might be some value in retaining Bagley and/or Middleton depending on price.

For the Mavs to be a team that at least threatens to make it to the conference semis every year by '29-'30 or so, it's going to take 
1) nailing the living $hit out of this year's draft pick,
2) getting a top five in the league GM (likely before the draft, due to the importance of #1), and
3) our current players outside of the "big three" (Coop, the draft pick, and Kyrie) having strong value, either on-court or in trade value, or #2 isn't likely to matter much.

We can't do a Nellie (stripping things down to brass tacks while somehow convincing Filthy to stick around in the midst of the poopshow) because we aren't missing one draft pick, but four. Building the team is going to be extremely hard work.

I agree with a LOT of this. Nearly everything actually. Just one small pushback. The Mavs do have first round picks the next 4 years. In fact, they currently have 4. One in ‘28, ‘29 and two in ‘30. I know you probably meant they don’t control their own pick with 2 of those having swap rights owed to OKC and SAS and the other two being other teams’ picks in LAL and GSW. But they do have picks. They even have a possibility for a pick in ‘27 if it lands in the Top-2.

It’s not as dire as you make it seem is all. It will take a good GM like you said. One that can draft well outside of the lottery (most likely) in some of those years.

BUT isn’t that okay after all? IF we hit on this pick… Do we expect those swaps to matter all that much? Do we expect to be bottom dwellers in Year 3 and Year 5 Flagg seasons when those swap rights matter? Also Year 2 and Year 4 of this next Top-10 pick..

Of course, a lot can happen between now and then. But you said it, we HAVE Flagg. And we NEED to hit on this pick. Then, we need a good GM to continue hitting on guys in the draft, even (likely) outside the lottery.

[cow]

Even if we hit on this pick, those OKC/SAS swaps will have our pick moving backward, maybe a little or maybe a lot. We'll have no reason to tank and we'll have a decent roster, so you'd probably be looking at a 15-20 pick becoming 25-30 pick. The GSW pick will most likely get converted into a second as GSW will most likely be rebuilding that point. As long as Luka is with the Lakers, that's probably a pick in the low 20s which would make it the best asset. I agree it's not dire, but it's not exactly rosy either.

[ThisIStheYear]

As long as Cooper turns into the player we think he’ll be, the Mavs have enough to work with. They’ll need at least one rabbit out of the hat, like finding a Josh Howard level player deep in the draft, and some solid work in free agency and trades, but that’s manageable. Many contenders were in that boat.

[Scott41theMavs]

I agree with a LOT of this. Nearly everything actually. Just one small pushback. The Mavs do have first round picks the next 4 years. In fact, they currently have 4. One in ‘28, ‘29 and two in ‘30. I know you probably meant they don’t control their own pick with 2 of those having swap rights owed to OKC and SAS and the other two being other teams’ picks in LAL and GSW. But they do have picks. They even have a possibility for a pick in ‘27 if it lands in the Top-2.

It’s not as dire as you make it seem is all. It will take a good GM like you said. One that can draft well outside of the lottery (most likely) in some of those years.

BUT isn’t that okay after all? IF we hit on this pick… Do we expect those swaps to matter all that much? Do we expect to be bottom dwellers in Year 3 and Year 5 Flagg seasons when those swap rights matter? Also Year 2 and Year 4 of this next Top-10 pick..

Of course, a lot can happen between now and then. But you said it, we HAVE Flagg. And we NEED to hit on this pick. Then, we need a good GM to continue hitting on guys in the draft, even (likely) outside the lottery.

Let's put it this way - we don't have any lottery picks, our own or otherwise, for the next four years. I was pointing out that those several other teams at the top of the standings were built on multiple lottery picks.

I was very happy and excited back in '97 when they hired Nellie, because he had the well-earned reputation of finding very solid or better players with not great draft picks. And well, well, well, he found Dirk, trading down to get him, and probably deserves credit for pegging Nash, the buried third-stringer, as a high-level starting point guard. The Mavs' first criterion for their new GM needs to be that sort of genius-level talent evaluation.

[Scott41theMavs]

Based on the schedules and the other Lottery team's rosters, it wouldn't shock me at all if the Mavs finished in the top (er...bottom?) 4 or 5.

I think if, in the next four games, they can go 1-3 or even 0-4, they'll be in a great position. After these four games the schedule gets brutal with top teams in a ridiculously tight calendar. This is gonna be like 2018.

I said earlier that if I were the front office, Kidd's marching orders would be that he was allowed to win an absolute max of 7 more games. That estimate was waaaayyyy too high. The Mavs might finish 4-5 if they don't win *any* more games. While I don't think there's any reasonable chance of them falling below seventh (that 26 wins guess would probably land them there), this year is unprecedented in terms of the lengths the bottom dwellers are going in terms of tanking aggressively. If they're dang lucky, one of the Pels, the Wizards (who are too dumb to tank right), or Utah (lulz, yeah right) will pass them in wins.

[Smitty]

Let's put it this way - we don't have any lottery picks, our own or otherwise, for the next four years. I was pointing out that those several other teams at the top of the standings were built on multiple lottery picks.

If Flagg is as good as we think he’ll be, we wouldn’t have a lottery pick in those years anyway. So, the lack of control over our own pick is less significant. Year 3 Flagg might be Top-5 in the NBA already. Hit on this FRP (OR BOTH) and I don’t think it really matters all that much (that we don’t control our own pick).

[Chicagojk]

I'm confused. You wanted them to win?

No, I get it.  I understand the task.  Getting the best player possible in the draft is job #1.  Thus losing as much as possible is fine.   

On the other hand, I spend a lot of time talking and watching Mavs.   It had hit already, but the realization of another year of watching and rooting for important games is down the drain.    Then turning on the game when Cooper is out and the team is filled with  older veterans.  Hardly anyone that i feel any connection with.   It is just depressing.  Who knows what will be going on a year from now, but just disappointing realizing another year of the last 30 games being games you are just rooting for losses.

[mvossman]

No, I get it.  I understand the task.  Getting the best player possible in the draft is job #1.  Thus losing as much as possible is fine.   

On the other hand, I spend a lot of time talking and watching Mavs.   It had hit already, but the realization of another year of watching and rooting for important games is down the drain.    Then turning on the game when Cooper is out and the team is filled with  older veterans.  Hardly anyone that i feel any connection with.   It is just depressing.  Who knows what will be going on a year from now, but just disappointing realizing another year of the last 30 games being games you are just rooting for losses.

The good news is that we wont have to worry about wanting to lose games for the foreseeable future.  I do share your frustration with the lack of interesting young players.  If there is one disappointment I have with the TDL its that they did not acquire anybody with a legit chance to contribute when this team is trying to contend.  I hope we make at least one flyer trade (like Dan described in the other thread) along with at least two guys from the draft.  That should mean more interesting players to watch even if they are not quite ready to compete next season.

[ballsrchr]

My life has been built on the phrase: Strive to Excel. As a result I have done well in business and I've been highly ranked in several individual sports. I never liked team sports, so most of what I did was individual sports. I now do individual sports, such as International tiddly winks and the sport that leaves one stranded on an Island: watching the Mavs play. I loved to play basketball, and I was quite good. But...I'm 5' 8" tall and built like a power lifter. I was a good little man, but almost any good big man was better than I was.

Back to: Strive to Excel. It leaves a bad taste in my mouth to--I can't say it--not to root for losses. But now, because of the great posts and discussion on this, and other, sites I can understand that the NBA is a business and individual play and meaningless wins are not going to help the Mavs. We can't "tank", but each loss moves us that much closer to a good pick. I wouldn't be doing this if we hadn't beat the odds and got Cooper Flagg. He is the real deal. I still watch...and I go to bed feeling...dirty. But I'll take one for the Mavs

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

Wow, I actually have BUTTERFLIES before this Pacers game, as if it's in the playoffs.

Strap on your helmets, boys and girls!!! TANK TANK TANK

[Scott41theMavs]

Tied at 44 - we have a chance to win-lose this game.

[loki]

Tied at 44 - we have a chance to win-lose this game.

Well, they've won all 3 quarters so far. But I refuse to give up on this team.

[Scott41theMavs]

Well, they've won all 3 quarters so far. But I refuse to give up on this team.

Klay and Gafford are doing their best to drive the tank, but their teammates and the Pacers aren't cooperating.

If Kidd is serious about win-losing this thing, he'll put in AJ to run the offense.

[SwisherPrice]

Middleton has arrived...I think they will keep him. He is Kidd's guy so I can see him being a Mav for a long time, maybe the rest of his career

[ThisIStheYear]

The irony is that the AD trade makes the team better because those guys actually can play but none of them can be on the roster next year except for the one who is a G League level player. Mavs should have bought those guys out. They gain nothing from Middleton or Bagley playing well since they’re unrestricted and wins are losses this season unless they involve Flagg.

[DanSchwartzgan]

These guys are going to find a way to win all four of these must-lose games.

Bagley is a walking double-double off the bench in limited minutes.  But, I get the feeling he gives them up as fast as he scores them.  Bench scoring has to come from somewhere, but you also need your center to anchor the D.  I see the value in Middleton going forward.  I'm struggling to decide if I'd keep Bagley if Gafford was traded.  I'm personally more fond of Cisse.