Building Around Cooper: A Backward-Looking Thought Experiment

[meistermatze]

Now that we have finally committed to building around Cooper and regained some flexibility, it is time to think about how to do it. Of course, everything depends on future moves and a bit of luck (or lack thereof, for example the next draft pick), which could either accelerate or slow down this process. There are also multiple ways to achieve similar or slightly different results.

That is why I thought it would be fun to work backwards. We start with an ideal lineup around Cooper, then look at our current assets and discuss which types of players, or even specific names, could fill each role.

There are obviously many correct answers, since Cooper should be relatively easy to build around. What follows is simply my way of thinking about it. I hope this can spark a productive and ongoing discussion and maybe even become a fun exercise for everyone. So let us begin.

The Core Idea: Cooper Plus a True Co-Star
In my opinion, Cooper can be the best player on a contending team, but he needs a co-star. Ideally, this second star is someone who can create offense, pass, and shoot from the outside. Think of a classic 1-2 punch. While Cooper has clearly improved and shows signs of becoming a true all-around, three-level scorer, most of his damage will likely come in the paint. I also do not see him as a constant 30-point scorer, especially because of his two-way responsibilities. Because of that, he could even be the second-highest scorer on the team, or at least very close to a high-volume scoring guard or wing.

The Kyrie Question
If Kyrie decides to stay and returns close to his pre-injury level, he is actually very close to the ideal fit for this role. Of course, it would be nice if he were younger, bigger, and stronger defensively, but realistically this is still a very strong option. The idealized version of this archetype, also age-wise, would be someone like Anthony Edwards. That is an obvious answer, though, since he fits almost anywhere.

Positional Logic and Roster Construction
Following this logic, a significant portion of the cap should be allocated to this second star, ideally at the point guard or shooting guard position. Cooper’s ideal position in the modern NBA is power forward, especially as he continues to get stronger. That said, he can realistically play any position except center going forward. This positional flexibility allows him to thrive alongside tall guards and wings who can defend multiple positions and switch seamlessly.

Because of this, it becomes clear that the roster needs to be rounded out with big, versatile wings and guards. These players should be able to defend multiple positions and complement the combination of Cooper and the creator-type star. This becomes even more important if the creator-type is smaller and has defensive limitations. If you have an Anthony Edwards–type player, defensive concerns are less pressing. If not, the surrounding personnel must compensate, for example by emphasizing defense and versatility over pure shot creation.

Since the modern NBA relies heavily on shooting and spacing, and since Cooper would benefit immensely from an open paint, these versatile defenders also need to be at least competent, and ideally very good, outside shooters. Think classic 3-and-D players. If one of them is also a strong point-of-attack defender, you have almost everything covered. Obviously, there are levels to this, and most teams will never fully reach this ideal. But for the sake of this exercise, we are assuming an optimal scenario.

The Center Question
This brings us to the center position. Ideally, you would want a big who can protect the rim, switch defensively, and space the floor. Outside of players like Bam Adebayo, Chet Holmgren, and Victor Wembanyama, there are very few true examples of this archetype. Still, this is the general profile I have in mind.
That said, if the rest of the roster is constructed close to perfectly, you can get away with a defense-first center who does not shoot. In that sense, Dereck Lively is already a very strong option, especially given his age. The obvious downside is his health, but in principle he fits the role extremely well. So now that we, finally, commited to built around Coop and got some flexibility back, we should start to think about how to do it. 

Bench Construction and Role Players
A perfectly constructed roster would consist of 15 players who can do everything. Obviously, that is not realistic. However, based on the ideal starting five, it makes sense to establish a defensive identity. Everyone outside of the creator-type should be a positive defender, with Cooper setting the tone. As a result, most role players should also have a defensive mindset. At the same time, you will need shooting off the bench. How much shooting you need depends on how large Cooper’s, and the other wings’, shooting limitations are. In some cases, you may need a Klay Thompson–type player, even if that comes at the expense of defense. If such a player starts for spacing reasons, then someone else must pick up the defensive slack. The balance is always situational.

This all leads me to this chart:

PG | Co-Star with he ability to shoot from outside and score a lot | Classic PG-type with strong defense | Classic PG or Scoring-Spark  (depending on what we need more going forward)
SG | Versatile 3&D-Wing with some creating ability | Sharpshooter Wing | Pure Shooter or Pure Defender/Energy-Guy
SF | Versatile 3&D-Wing with excellent defensense | Playmaking-Wing  | Pure Shooter or Pure Defender/Energy-Guy
PF | Cooper | Stretch-4-type | Pure Shooter or Pure Defender/Energy-Guy
C |Defending big, who can stretch the floor or be a lob thread | Big who excells in the area C1 is lacking in | All-Around big or prospect

and given our current team, I see the followings roles penciled in for now:

PG | Kyrie Irving | Classic PG-type with strong defense | Tyus Jones/Ryan Nembhard or Brandon Williams
SG | Max Christie | Playmaking-Wing  | Klay Thompson 
SF |  Versatile 3&D-Wing with excellent defense or playmaking | Naji Marshall | Caleb Martin
PF | Cooper Flagg | PJ Washington Jr. |  Pure Shooter or Pure Defender/Energy-Guy
C | Derek Lively | Daniel Gafford | Marvin Bagley III or Moussa Cisse

If everybody was healthy, we only need one excellent 3&D-wing to have a perfect starting five. This is a big if, though, with Kyrie's and Lively's injuries. If they don't want to stay here or the Mavs decide to move on, we would obviously need to upgrade the positions accordingly.

What also stands out to me, is that PJ is way to expensive for his role, as will Naji be with his current play. They also lack the shooting aspect to really play next to Cooper going forwards. It might work if you get a shooting Center but those are hard to come by, especially if you want your Center to anchor the defense. So you see, everything is verändern the next part. But I think it is way more likely to find a great 3&D guy instead of PJ or Naji than to find a perfect Center who can do everything.

Also, Klay is simply too expensive for the role he currently fills.

Because of that, the most obvious moves, in my opinion, are the following:

• Trade P.J. Washington.
  
• Trade Naji Marshall.
  
• Acquire one or two versatile 3-and-D wings or bigs, either through the draft or via trade. This is especially important because Cooper can also play the three.
  
• If you trust Lively and Kyrie to stay healthy, roll with them. If not, prioritize upgrading those positions.
  
• Decide whether you want upside or experience at certain roster spots, especially the third center and point guard positions, and move on from unnecessary players.
  

What do you guys think? I hope, we can get a great discussion going!

[vfromlmf]

Great analysis and agree with your conclusions with a few tweaks. Mt team building formula has evolved quite a bit from the days where traditional positions filled traditional roles. I just put players in one of three buckets and stack rank them. Upgrade whenever possible to push guys down a notch. Cut from the bottom if needed.

Small | Lead Guard. You usually need one of these guys on the floor to run the offense.
1. Kyrie - superstar
2. Jones - backup
3. Williams - change of pace / energy guy
4. Nembhard - could supplant Jones?

Medium | Wing. 6' 5" or taller, two-way players. You probably start three of them. Find best player available. Size matters.
1. Flagg - superstar
2. PJW - plus defender, can't shoot, turnover prone
3. Naji - scorer, tough, better than PJW?
4. Christie - shooter, not disruptive defensively, doesn't rebound
5. Martin - 10th man
6. Klay - below replacement level
7. Middleton - TBD
8. AJJ - project
9. Kelly - project

Big | Center. Does center things.
1. Lively - pedigreed, injury risk
2. Gafford - mid-tier starter
3. Bagley - backup
4. Powell - change of pace / energy vet
5. Cisse - project

The Mavs can obviously upgrade the wing rotation. You really need at least 6 playable guys like this for a solid 10-man regular season rotation. Ideally they find a guy in the draft who can eventually run the offense and defend but he just has to be better than PJW, Naji and Christie.

Pointedly, if you trade PJW you need to replace him with someone who is ... better than PJW.

[mvossman]

Some thoughts:

Kyrie is about to turn 34. He is not the long term solution. Replacing his role in this upcoming draft would be ideal on many levels.

I'm not sure Max is the right fit for starting SG. He is not a plus defender and he does not do a lot of creation. He is only 22 and still improving, so this may change.

The missing 3&D wing is a great candidate for a trade. Those guys can be reasonably priced, especially if you get them before they fully blossom. Derrick White cost 1 first.

I'm not sure Lively will ever be a true floor spacer, but it would be good to find a 4/5 tweener that can space the floor. Would not mind trying PG at the 5.

[DanSchwartzgan]

What do you guys think? I hope, we can get a great discussion going!

Well done on your analysis.  I like that you included some playmaking and scoring on the bench.  This often gets overlooked, but is critical.  You can't have your starters beat the other starters by 2-3 points and have your bench lose by 10 and be successful.  We have some good candidates for this on the team currently.  Unfortunately, we have too many of these guys some of whom are making starter money.  It is OK for now since we will have players on rookie deals for a while longer.  But, it eventually has to be dealt with.

Lively's status makes all of this planning so difficult.  

I think Christie is a core piece.  He's shooting .628% in TS% on a bad team.  That's valuable.  You can see almost to the day when Kidd told him to start trying to do more.  Why not, if this is a developmental year for young guys.  It would take a lot to unseat him in my mind as he fits needs and timelines very well.

I think the main point I'd make is I think we all place too much emphasis on the Flagg "true co-star" being a guard.  Maybe it is traditional thinking or maybe it is because there are so many guards in the upcoming draft.  Would we think differently if PG's were scarce 4-10 and instead there were a bunch of SF's who can create for themselves.  If we somehow landed the next Franz Wagner, or Jalen Brown in the draft, I bet we'd figure it out.  It might happen if we draft Dybasta or Caleb Wilson.  BTW, doing so would change the type of PG we'd need.  I think a scoring SF/SG type with a 3&D PG would be just as effective as a scoring PG with a traditional 3&D wing.  We just need one other star creator from somewhere eventually.

I think this team is closer than we may think.  Nail the pick (whether a guard or a forward) and allocate some of our other resources to fill the other hole with an above replacement level player and the floor for this team is Top Six in the West (with health).  People forget how good Lively is when healthy.  Our rookie wouldn't yet be a big contributor (Flagg spoiled us).  But, we have options that would allow us to put the rookie in a limited role in a deep playoff run.  More than anything, we have two absolute assassins in late game execution between Flagg and Irving.  That will matter if we can get the other pieces right.

I think it would have improved your post if you would have indicated how undeniably important it is to draft someone with the 30th pick and not contemplate using it as a tool to improve the team in some other way 

[vfromlmf]

To the OP's original recommended moves --

1. Trade PJW. I mentioned above, if you trade PJW, you need to trade him for a player who is better than PJW, which is no easy task. PJ has his flaws but was recently a high minute starter on a Finals team. Things change if you're talking about trading him for a swing at another lottery pick, or packaging him to move up to select an impact starter. Let's say the Bucks land at 5. Would you send PJW and #7 to MIL to move up two spots for Flemming?

2. Trade Naji. Really, same can be said for Naji. He's our version of Keldon Johnson. If you trade him for a mid-FRP you're looking at swapping him out for the likes of Meleek Thomson, a guy who projects as a Jordan Hawkins type. Or a Yaxel Landenborg / Kyle Anderson-type. There's benefit to landing another player on Flagg's timeline, and you might get lucky and find an impact player, but it's going to be difficult.

3. Acquire 1-2 versatile 3&D Wings. If you look at the top-14 projected picks there are only a couple of guys you probably wouldn't want to play next to Kyrie. I think that's the benchmark for a "modern wing," and for our FRP. If the best player available is 6' 4" and long, you take him. If he's 6' 10" and can guard on the perimeter, you take him. That being said, if the best player available is a 6' 3" lead guard like Acuff, and you can't move up, you take Acuff. This team is in pure unadulterated talent acquisition mode. And as others have noted, odds are long that Kyrie is the starting PG when this team is a contender.

4. If you trust Lively, roll with him. Center absolutely CANNOT be a priority at this time. Lively has to hit. He's an impact player when healthy and a major upgrade. Lively just has to get healthy or it will set this team back even further. I'd keep Gafford but trade him for a mid first. I'd keep Bagley if he's on a Powell-like contract. I'd retain Powell as a coach. I might sign Cisse to the minimum if Bagley walks.

5. If you trust Kyrie, roll with him. I don't think the Mavs have many options here if they want to win next year. You're not upgrading Kyrie unless you move him for a lottery pick and even then, it will likely take years for that player to develop and he'll likely never be Kyrie. I'd probably trade him for another lottery pick in '26 though :-(

To Dan's point about Max Christie, I'm not sure I buy him as a long-term core player. I just don't see the defensive impact. He's solid positionally but doesn't make plays. I agree that's he's being asked to do more offensively but I struggle to see more than a solid rotation player. If you're picking teams and PJW, Naji and Christie are all available, who do you take first? If the answer is "It depends on what I need" then you're talking about a role player, not a core piece.

My priorities for the Mavs:

1. Draft an impact starter. This will be a guy who can play next to Kyrie and Flagg. Archetype is a 6' 5" or taller 225 lbs two-way wing.
2. Use PJW, Naji, Christie, Gafford, and/or #30 to move up for above if needed, or into middle of the first if there's a guy you're targeting.
3. Get Lively healthy.
4. Backup Guard. Sign Tyus Jones around $5 million or Nembhard to a minimum.
5. 3rd Center. Sign Bagley around $4 million or Cisse to a minimum. If you trade Gafford I might sign Bagley AND Cisse.
6. 3rd Guard. Sign BWill to a minimum or let him walk.
7. Vet wing. If you have a roster spot, sign Middleton for the minimum.
8. I'd like to do something with Klay's expiring contract but that probably won't materialize until next year's trade deadline.

[ballsrchr]

To the OP's original recommended moves --

1. Trade PJW. I mentioned above, if you trade PJW, you need to trade him for a player who is better than PJW, which is no easy task. PJ has his flaws but was recently a high minute starter on a Finals team. Things change if you're talking about trading him for a swing at another lottery pick, or packaging him to move up to select an impact starter. Let's say the Bucks land at 5. Would you send PJW and #7 to MIL to move up two spots for Flemming?

2. Trade Naji. Really, same can be said for Naji. He's our version of Keldon Johnson. If you trade him for a mid-FRP you're looking at swapping him out for the likes of Meleek Thomson, a guy who projects as a Jordan Hawkins type. Or a Yaxel Landenborg / Kyle Anderson-type. There's benefit to landing another player on Flagg's timeline, and you might get lucky and find an impact player, but it's going to be difficult.

3. Acquire 1-2 versatile 3&D Wings. If you look at the top-14 projected picks there are only a couple of guys you probably wouldn't want to play next to Kyrie. I think that's the benchmark for a "modern wing," and for our FRP. If the best player available is 6' 4" and long, you take him. If he's 6' 10" and can guard on the perimeter, you take him. That being said, if the best player available is a 6' 3" lead guard like Acuff, and you can't move up, you take Acuff. This team is in pure unadulterated talent acquisition mode. And as others have noted, odds are long that Kyrie is the starting PG when this team is a contender.

4. If you trust Lively, roll with him. Center absolutely CANNOT be a priority at this time. Lively has to hit. He's an impact player when healthy and a major upgrade. Lively just has to get healthy or it will set this team back even further. I'd keep Gafford but trade him for a mid first. I'd keep Bagley if he's on a Powell-like contract. I'd retain Powell as a coach. I might sign Cisse to the minimum if Bagley walks.

5. If you trust Kyrie, roll with him. I don't think the Mavs have many options here if they want to win next year. You're not upgrading Kyrie unless you move him for a lottery pick and even then, it will likely take years for that player to develop and he'll likely never be Kyrie. I'd probably trade him for another lottery pick in '26 though :-(

To Dan's point about Max Christie, I'm not sure I buy him as a long-term core player. I just don't see the defensive impact. He's solid positionally but doesn't make plays. I agree that's he's being asked to do more offensively but I struggle to see more than a solid rotation player. If you're picking teams and PJW, Naji and Christie are all available, who do you take first? If the answer is "It depends on what I need" then you're talking about a role player, not a core piece.

My priorities for the Mavs:

1. Draft an impact starter. This will be a guy who can play next to Kyrie and Flagg. Archetype is a 6' 5" or taller 225 lbs two-way wing.
2. Use PJW, Naji, Christie, Gafford, and/or #30 to move up for above if needed, or into middle of the first if there's a guy you're targeting.
3. Get Lively healthy.
4. Backup Guard. Sign Tyus Jones around $5 million or Nembhard to a minimum.
5. 3rd Center. Sign Bagley around $4 million or Cisse to a minimum. If you trade Gafford I might sign Bagley AND Cisse.
6. 3rd Guard. Sign BWill to a minimum or let him walk.
7. Vet wing. If you have a roster spot, sign Middleton for the minimum.
8. I'd like to do something with Klay's expiring contract but that probably won't materialize until next year's trade deadline.

Some good analysis from everybody.  But...this is the one I'd go with.  I think I'd keep Christie a little longer, see if he can't work on his weaknesses.  And get Naji to work on his outside game.  But...I would go with this analysis if I had to...and be happy.

[F Gump]

I appreciate all the ideas being shared.

My view fwiw is a bit different.

I think that the Mavs will do far less than everyone is thinking they will, because of roster limits and minutes limits. We expect a "better" player at almost every position, but there's not really a practical way to make that happen, because the vast majority of available players will have flaws just like what they already have.

To my way of thinking, you only have room and opportunity for 2 big changes/upgrades. One will be a rookie in the top 10. The other will be MLE (up to 15M) or TPE (up to 20M). IMO they are very unlikely to do both MLE and TPE because they don't have playing space for them.

I am doubtful about trades because it's hard to find teams being willing to trade you the right guy for you (who can upgrade what you want upgraded) making the right salary at the right price in assets. In fact, if you scroll through the player salary list, it's hard to find the talent you need both as a trade target and also as a fit. And the idea that "we will get rid of player X because he's not as ____ as we would prefer" is only an avenue to tear down the talent, and not one to build up. When I look through those lists, and see what 15-20M buys you these days, all of a sudden I am not so dissatisfied with having players on the roster like Gaff, Lively, PJW, Naji, Klay, Christie.

I also hope they are careful and targeted with the way they spend. Today's 15M MLE player - because we can afford to pay him 15M - is way more desirable later on when salaries are tight if we only have paid him 10M. And for someone like Bagley, if he's not minimum or close to it, as a 3rd stringer, I'm just not interested in that financial baggage.

But mostly, my point is about how I think we will do way LESS player acquisition than is being proposed. They have a lot of players already. You can plug in the next 2 wherever you think they fit, but after that it looks to me like you are dealing with 3rd stringers, 2 ways, and players who play little until you have an emergency.

So far --- Plug in 2 new players onto the list below and you have 11, and you probably also have few minutes (if any) left to offer.
C - Gaff, Lively
PF - Flagg, Martin
SF - Naji, PJW
SG - Christie, Klay
PG - Kyrie [also Johnson is under contract, but I suspect he won't be kept]

I'm guessing at least one of those 2 additions is a G who creates offense, especially a PG type, which seems most likely to come from the draft (because of the obvious availability to work with). For the 2nd player, they might consider another offense creator OR a 3-and-D type (I'm intrigued by Dort, but you might also attack that need by great scouting and development like OKC did).

Once you add those 2 players already noted, you are probably full on your rotation and filling in 3rd stringers.

Internal options to fill those 4 remaining 15-man slots are: pick 30, 2ndRP, Powell, Cisse, Bagley, Middleton, Jones, Williams, Nembhard, Johnson. Cap room isn't an issue this summer, but value (tied to playing time) should be a major limiter on what is paid to any of these. The allocation of 2-way slots might also provide some cost-efficient help with upside potential, for example if they bring back Nemby and Cisse as 2-ways.

[Smitty]

If I were to be completely honest and take the Mavs fan blinders off and breakdown each of the 10 players under contract next year it would be something like this:

Kyrie Irving - Guard. Elite-level starter before ACL tear. Injury prone. Age concerns (34). Undersized. Below average defender. Good short-term solution at Guard, especially on the offensive end, but will have a player option the following year for $42.4M. I don't have a high level of confidence that he will be a Maverick past this upcoming season.

Klay Thompson - Wing. Elite-level shooter off the bench. Ideal role is 15-18 MPG. Below average defender. Age concerns (36). Is an expiring and not in any long-term plans for the Flagg build.

Daniel Gafford - Big. Capable starter but thrives in a PnR heavy offense. Limited defensively, outside of rim protection. Under contract through the 28-29 season. Still just 27 years old. Could be a fit with Flagg if the Mavs go back to a PnR centered offense. Could be a good trade piece in the right deal.

PJ Washington - Wing. Good to Great starter. Having a down year after signing a new contract through the 29-30 season. Still just 27 years old. Could be a fit with Flagg if he's not asked to be a focal point on offense, due to others for that role being injured or not on the current roster. Catch and shoot is his strength. Attacking close outs is his secondary role. Versatile defender and provides a level of rim protection. 

Cooper Flagg - Wing. Franchise player.

Caleb Martin - Wing. Below average bench player. Best perimeter defender on the roster but provides nothing offensively. 30 years old with a player option in 27-28. Not a long-term Mav for the Flagg build.

Naji Marshall - Wing. Ideal backup for Flagg. Breakout year with higher usage. Concerns with his impact in a lesser role. Versatile on both sides of the ball. Poor outside shooter which limits his fit with Flagg as a starter. Extension eligible this summer...

Max Christie - Guard. Starter level. Big leap offensively. His per36 numbers with 16 points on 43% shooting with 7 attempts per game make him an ideal fit with Flagg as a starter going forward. Lacks self-creation. CnS role and attacking closeouts is his current strength. Average to above average defender. Just turned 23 (Happy Birthday), which puts him on Flagg' timeline.

Dereck Lively - Big. Excellent backup. His injury history limits his potential impact. Can't play starter minutes. Limited offensively. Above average passer for a Big. Defensive impact is a real positive. His age (22) makes him a fit with Flagg going forward. Depends on the extension...

AJ Johnson - Guard. The only real project on the roster. Elite athlete but not much else. Expiring contract ($3.3M) next year.


With all that said. For next year it breaks down like this for me:

Kyrie |
Max |          Klay | AJJ
Flagg | Naji          | Martin
PJW
Gafford | Lively

The Mavs have an obvious need at Guard. In the short-term and long-term. If Gafford is in your plans, which I'm not so sure he is, you have a real need for PnR type Guards and less ISO type. The hope for many is that they find that Gaurd with the top pick in this years draft. IF it's a Wing in the Top-10, you will have an opportunity to trade for that Guard with your depth at Wing. Ideally, he would be a great POA defender.

The three point shooting from Kyrie-Max-PJW in the starting lineup is all above average for their position, which is crucial for Flagg to have the space to operate inside. I expect Flagg to also become an average 3PT shooter on good volume as soon as next season.

[mvossman]

I appreciate all the ideas being shared.

My view fwiw is a bit different.

I think that the Mavs will do far less than everyone is thinking they will, because of roster limits and minutes limits. We expect a "better" player at almost every position, but there's not really a practical way to make that happen, because the vast majority of available players will have flaws just like what they already have.

To my way of thinking, you only have room and opportunity for 2 big changes/upgrades. One will be a rookie in the top 10. The other will be MLE (up to 15M) or TPE (up to 20M). IMO they are very unlikely to do both MLE and TPE because they don't have playing space for them.

I am doubtful about trades because it's hard to find teams being willing to trade you the right guy for you (who can upgrade what you want upgraded) making the right salary at the right price in assets. In fact, if you scroll through the player salary list, it's hard to find the talent you need both as a trade target and also as a fit. And the idea that "we will get rid of player X because he's not as ____ as we would prefer" is only an avenue to tear down the talent, and not one to build up. When I look through those lists, and see what 15-20M buys you these days, all of a sudden I am not so dissatisfied with having players on the roster like Gaff, Lively, PJW, Naji, Klay, Christie.

I also hope they are careful and targeted with the way they spend. Today's 15M MLE player - because we can afford to pay him 15M - is way more desirable later on when salaries are tight if we only have paid him 10M. And for someone like Bagley, if he's not minimum or close to it, as a 3rd stringer, I'm just not interested in that financial baggage.

But mostly, my point is about how I think we will do way LESS player acquisition than is being proposed. They have a lot of players already. You can plug in the next 2 wherever you think they fit, but after that it looks to me like you are dealing with 3rd stringers, 2 ways, and players who play little until you have an emergency.

So far --- Plug in 2 new players onto the list below and you have 11, and you probably also have few minutes (if any) left to offer.
C - Gaff, Lively
PF - Flagg, Martin
SF - Naji, PJW
SG - Christie, Klay
PG - Kyrie  [also Johnson is under contract, but I suspect he won't be kept]

I'm guessing at least one of those 2 additions is a G who creates offense, especially a PG type, which seems most likely to come from the draft (because of the obvious availability to work with). For the 2nd player, they might consider another offense creator OR a 3-and-D type (I'm intrigued by Dort, but you might also attack that need by great scouting and development like OKC did).

Once you add those 2 players already noted, you are probably full on your rotation and filling in 3rd stringers.

Internal options to fill those 4 remaining 15-man slots are: pick 30, 2ndRP, Powell, Cisse, Bagley, Middleton, Jones, Williams, Nembhard, Johnson. Cap room isn't an issue this summer, but value (tied to playing time) should be a major limiter on what is paid to any of these. The allocation of 2-way slots might also provide some cost-efficient help with upside potential, for example if they bring back Nemby and Cisse as 2-ways.

I could be wrong, but I think the difference between your outlook and some of the others is timeframe.  It seems like you are focused on this upcoming offseason.  I think the Mavs will eventually need to trade for their 2/3rd best player, but I don't think it will happen this offseason.  I think it will take a couple of seasons before they can get this team where they want it.

[KillerLeft]

I could be wrong, but I think the difference between your outlook and some of the others is timeframe.  It seems like you are focused on this upcoming offseason.  I think the Mavs will eventually need to trade for their 2/3rd best player, but I don't think it will happen this offseason.  I think it will take a couple of seasons before they can get this team where they want it.

I have no idea what a reasonable timeframe of expectations is because we don't know how great Flagg can be and how quickly, and maybe more importantly there are huge question marks in the areas of front office and now ownership, but...

...I think it's pointless to worry about how some of these players fit, skills wise or timeline wise, until the 2nd/3rd best player is identified and on the roster, OR, at least until there's someone here through whom the offense can be run. In my head, the solutions for those problems are probably the same guy, but I suppose there are ways win which they might not be. Either way, the new unspoken boundary line seems to be about how seriously we each take the last few years of Kyrie. I think that's a total non-starter, because it feels like wheel spinning to me, even in the best possible scenario. This won't be popular, but HE's probably the guy I'd look to trade next.

[F Gump]

I could be wrong, but I think the difference between your outlook and some of the others is timeframe.  It seems like you are focused on this upcoming offseason.  I think the Mavs will eventually need to trade for their 2/3rd best player, but I don't think it will happen this offseason.  I think it will take a couple of seasons before they can get this team where they want it.

Yes I am focused on what to do now, and have very little interest in assessing what moves they will have to make in 2027, 2028, and so on. Why? Because we just don't know what it will look like when we get there. Some parts of the team will look WAY different to us in a year, and we don't know what those developments will be. Some may be awful changes, but some may be great positives. 

Whatever they are, it will change what needs to be done down the road. Ya don't know what ya don't know.

[F Gump]

[KYRIE]'s probably the guy I'd look to trade next.

Not me. I think Kyrie's part of the solution, a very desirable part in fact, and I'd be just fine if he was a Mav until he retired. 

Speaking of players retiring - I saw where Cuban said (or was purported to say -- since you don't know anymore what's a fake) - that DP is not retiring this summer. That makes me wonder if the Mavs are reserving a roster slot for him. Again. 

If so, that's one more body to fit into the 15-man equation, and one less open spot available this summer.

[Mavs2021]

I don´t expect much activity until the next trade deadline. I think only Thompson/Martin/Johnson are on the summer block. Johnson might get waived.

I expect them to

....use the TPE/MLE on guards in the summer: a combination of Schroeder/Monk/Caruso and Simons/Sexton/White
....make their 1st round picks
....evaluate everything until TDL and move forward accordingly.

[mvossman]

With all that said. For next year it breaks down like this for me:

Kyrie |
Max |          Klay | AJJ
Flagg | Naji          | Martin
PJW
Gafford | Lively

The Mavs have an obvious need at Guard. In the short-term and long-term. If Gafford is in your plans, which I'm not so sure he is, you have a real need for PnR type Guards and less ISO type. The hope for many is that they find that Gaurd with the top pick in this years draft. IF it's a Wing in the Top-10, you will have an opportunity to trade for that Guard with your depth at Wing. Ideally, he would be a great POA defender.

The three point shooting from Kyrie-Max-PJW in the starting lineup is all above average for their position, which is crucial for Flagg to have the space to operate inside. I expect Flagg to also become an average 3PT shooter on good volume as soon as next season.

I have to say, that starting lineup does not inspire confidence.  PJ has been one of the worst pairs with Flagg by net rating on the team.  I realize he is having a down year, but he is shooting 30% from 3 this season and shot 32% from 3 in the finals year.  I'm not sure I would call PJ a plus three point shooter for his position.  The 4 man lineup of Gafford/PJ/Flagg/Max is a net -12 for the season.  I realize part of the issue is that some of those minutes are without a PG, but its asking a lot for a mid 30s guard coming off major knee surgery to turn that into a big positive.

Personally I don't see Gafford as part of the long term plan.  I think you want better defense from your starting center.  He is a quality "innings eater" behind an injury prone starter, but he makes too much for that role.  I think you can money ball him with guys making a lot less.

[Smitty]

I put this list together because we talk about adding guys via MLE or TPE and wanted to see who those guys actually were.

UFA's that could be potential gets with the MLE:

Guards              Wings                Bigs
McCollum          LeBron             Vucevic
Simons             T. Harris          M. Robinson
Sexton             Hachimura         Landale
C. White            K. Ellis              
Grimes             Middleton*                
Dosunmo          Kuminga (TO)             
Gillespie                                                                                   
Alvarado (PO) 


RFA's that could be potential gets:
J. Ivey
P. Watson
B. Mathurin
T. Eason


Trade options with the TPE or MLE:
Josh Hart $20.9M
Monk $20.2M
Curuso $19.5M 
Nembhard $19.5M 
Dort $18.2M (TO) 
G. Allen $18.1M
Strus $16.6M 
Schroder $14.8M
Lavert $14.8M
Moody $12.5M 
Isaiah Joe $11.3M
Nesmith $11.0M
McConnell $11.0M
A. Black $10.1M


I don't mean to imply that all of the UFA's will accept that little or that some of the lower tier will cost that much, just the list of names available. 
I don't mean to imply that the RFA's are available or realistic gets, just that they are restricted free agents. 
I don't mean to imply that the players listed in the TPE/MLE trade section means the other team will be willing to trade them to get off their money, or that the Mavs should go after them, just that they fit in the salary slot available to the Mavs.
Of course, there are a number of SnT/Trade options out there but didn't feel the need to get into all of that.

Knowing the names now, who and why should the Mavs prioritize this summer?

[mvossman]

Yes I am focused on what to do now, and have very little interest in assessing what moves they will have to make in 2027, 2028, and so on. Why? Because we just don't know what it will look like when we get there. Some parts of the team will look WAY different to us in a year, and we don't know what those developments will be. Some may be awful changes, but some may be great positives. 

Whatever they are, it will change what needs to be done down the road. Ya don't know what ya don't know.

I think when you are going through a reset and expect it to take a couple of years to get to where you want to be, its importing to look farther into the future than the next offseason.  Some decisions require more prep than in the moment.  If they determine they will likely need to pool their assets for a big trade in the future then it impacts what they do now.  If they think they may want to go the free agent route in 28 when a lot of the contracts expire and Flagg has not signed extension yet, then they need to be thinking about that now.

I think a lot of this comes down to how close you think we are.  If you think we are reasonably close then your focus is going to be in the near term.  If you think we are a ways away, then the focus is going to be on longer term and bigger moves.

[Smitty]

PJ has been one of the worst pairs with Flagg by net rating on the team.  I realize he is having a down year, but he is shooting 30% from 3 this season and shot 32% from 3 in the finals year.  I'm not sure I would call PJ a plus three point shooter for his position.  The 4 man lineup of Gafford/PJ/Flagg/Max is a net -12 for the season.  

"He's been hurt the most by subpar PG play this season, being asked to do too much on the offensive end, especially early in the year. He's also been dealing with the ankle injury. In and out of the lineup all year. Here are his 3PT numbers over his career:

37.4% / 4.0  3PA
38.6% / 4.5  3PA
36.5% / 4.6  3PA
34.8% / 5.9  3PA
32.0% / 5.7  3PA
38.1% / 4.2  3PA
31.0% / 4.2  3PA

~35% has been the league average for Power Forwards over the years, with 3.1 attempts per game. PJ has been at or above that 5 out of 7 years in his career. And this season is incomplete."


I don't mean to keep beating this drum, but a lot of data this season, especially when it comes to PJW, is useless. If you feel confident using advanced lineup data in this lost season, to help make a case for next year and beyond, more power to you. I can't get there.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

I would be shocked if PJ and Gafford aren't traded this offseason. I like PJ and love that he's a local kid who is happy playing at home, but I don't think he fits with Cooper.

I also love Kyrie. As far as I'm concerned, I echo the sentiments most have that he's a Mav as long as he wants to be. And i think he'd make for an amazing mentor. But I can also see him being a great fit on a team like the Rockets or Twolves. Plus, one of the young players in the league i drool over is Joan "don't call me Tom" Beringer. If the Mavs landed a PG in the Draft, I think the Mavs could definitely land some pieces for Kyrie.

And my feelings on Max is that he's the type of player every winning team needs, but I don't think he's someone that the Mavs would regret trading if a team blew them away by offering a late lottery pick for him. I think his top side is Danny Green (which is not bad).

I would be TERRIFIED about offering Lively a longterm deal. I could see it blowing up the second it's signed. Again, sentimentally, I love him. But there comes a point where the numbers and lack of availability are what they are. If a contract with incentives can be signed, cool. But he's another player that I would be okay with moving in the right deal.

Basically, besides Cooper, I feel like this team is filled with Derrick Joneses -- role players that I really like and that if they get moved I'd initially go "Hey, that's one of our guys!!!", but very shortly, would be okay if they weren't here. In other words, I missed DJJ, but the good GMing that replaced him with Naji made me cool with it.

The Lottery will honestly dictate everything:

Top 3 pick? Build slowly around Cooper and his "Robin".
Pick 4?
Pick 7-9? I feel like this is settling on becoming a 6 player top of the Draft (Peterson, Boozer, Dybantsa, Flemings, Wilson and Wagler). There's a dip there. That's not to say there aren't very good players below, but as of today, it doesn't look like a true young player to build around. This could be a place where the Mavs could use this pick along with their space and cherry pick a younger player from a team who can't afford them (ex. Orlando -- either Banchero or F. Wagner WILL get moved this summer).

Sorry to be all over the place, but the trade of AD truly has created a wealth of flexibility and options for the team.

[mvossman]

"He's been hurt the most by subpar PG play this season, being asked to do too much on the offensive end, especially early in the year. He's also been dealing with the ankle injury. In and out of the lineup all year. Here are his 3PT numbers over his career:

37.4% / 4.0  3PA
38.6% / 4.5  3PA
36.5% / 4.6  3PA
34.8% / 5.9  3PA
32.0% / 5.7  3PA
38.1% / 4.2  3PA
31.0% / 4.2  3PA

~35% has been the league average for Power Forwards over the years, with 3.1 attempts per game. PJ has been at or above that 5 out of 7 years in his career. And this season is incomplete."


I don't mean to keep beating this drum, but a lot of data this season, especially when it comes to PJW, is useless. If you feel confident using advanced lineup data in this lost season, to help make a case for next year and beyond, more power to you. I can't get there.

Those three point percentages would be more encouraging if they were in reverse order.  Its concerning that its been going down almost every season.  I'm not convinced data from this season is completely useless.  Its not just the data either, its also the eye test. I just think Flagg and PJ prefer to operate in the same space. I guess we will see next season, but I would not be crushed if PJ was traded in the offseason for a better fitting piece.

[vfromlmf]

I think we're all saying largely the say thing in different ways. In my view, I bucket traditional SG, SF, PF into the need for at least 6 fairly interchangeable rotation players. I call them "wings" simply because they're not small guards or big centers. That's it. If one of your mid-sized players can run a little point (e.g. Flagg, Naji) even better. The best all-around players play the most and the rest fill in the gaps.

Kyrie, Jones, BWill and Nembhard are more limited because of their size but if you're as good as Kyrie it's less of an issue. Kyrie can play next to another small guard for stretches. Not 30 minutes, but short runs against certain matchups, sure. But if I'm drafting, I prioritize a bigger player.

To Gump's point about the roster:

You clearly need to hold spots for three small guards. 1. Kyrie plus two of 2. Jones, 3. BWill, or someone else.

You clearly need to hold spots for three centers. 1. Lively plus two of 2. Gafford, 3. Bagley, Powell, Cisse

You clearly need a bullpen of six wings. 1. Flagg, 2. PJW, 3. Naji, 4. Christie, 5. Martin, 6. Klay are under contract

Then you have three new young players: 1. Lotto Pick, 2. No 30 Pick, and 3. AJJ

If I look at our needs, an impact starter in the lottery, a guy who can bump Klay or Martin out of the rotation is my top priority.

That's 15.