TRADE: Tyus Jones to DAL | Branham to CHA

[DanSchwartzgan]

There is literally no way that a five way combination of AJ Johnson, C. Martin, Jones/Nembhard, Middleton + Bagley should take priority over the 30th pick. None whatsoever. If you are convinced that you picked the BPA at #30 in a generational draft, then that pick should have at least a 10% chance to be a Jae Crowder,  a 2% chance to be Desmond Bane, a 0.1% chance to be Jalen Brunson. We are just at the beginning of the Flagg journey. Every 1st round pick has more value than a veteran minimum guy over 30.

You aren’t getting the point.  It has nothing to do with those players or adding an older vet min guy.  It has to do with what you might get with the 30th pick.  The “generational” part of this draft is depth at the top 1/3.  We have no idea if that trickles all the way to #30.  Like every draft, #30 is a lottery ticket with a very small chance of being a real NBA player.  But, combined with other things…players like Gafford/PJ or with the TPE or with other draft assets (or some combination of all of that), #30 could be turned into something that actually makes the team better.  Thus, its inclusion in the depth chart is dependent…not on end of bench guys but on the teams ability to combine assets at the top of the roster.

[FireNicoHarrison]

There is literally no way that a five way combination of AJ Johnson, C. Martin, Jones/Nembhard, Middleton + Bagley should take priority over the 30th pick. None whatsoever. If you are convinced that you picked the BPA at #30 in a generational draft, then that pick should have at least a 10% chance to be a Jae Crowder,  a 2% chance to be Desmond Bane, a 0.1% chance to be Jalen Brunson. We are just at the beginning of the Flagg journey. Every 1st round pick has more value than a veteran minimum guy over 30.

Agree.

A good scout can find gems late in the draft... A Vegas Bob guy can make the wrong pick even in top3.

[Mavs2021]

You aren’t getting the point.  It has nothing to do with those players or adding an older vet min guy.  It has to do with what you might get with the 30th pick.  The “generational” part of this draft is depth at the top 1/3.  We have no idea if that trickles all the way to #30.  Like every draft, #30 is a lottery ticket with a very small chance of being a real NBA player.  But, combined with other things…players like Gafford/PJ or with the TPE or with other draft assets (or some combination of all of that), #30 could be turned into something that actually makes the team better.  Thus, its inclusion in the depth chart is dependent…not on end of bench guys but on the teams ability to combine assets at the top of the roster.

If the #30 pick has such a small chance to help a team, why should another team give us a huge upgrade over TPE/Gafford/Washington, cause we include it in the trade?   Picks are chances. Rebuilding teams take as many chances as they can, as soon as they can. 

That you even suggest we combine multiple picks, when we KNOW NOTHING about our current team makes no sense to me.

Right now I think the Mavs have a few tasks:

1. TANK as hard as possible.

2. Extract maximum value from the draft in form of BPA. That could mean you trade down from #1 to #2, cause Utah badly wants Dybantsa and you can still get Peterson at #2. It could mean trading down from #3 to #4, cause you think Wilson will be better than Boozer. But BPA pick decisions need to be made.

3. Use the TPE.

4. Use the MLE.

We have two major question marks in our starting five with Irving and Lively. We should not do anything major, until we know about them. Everything changes based on their health alone.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Right now I think the Mavs have a few tasks:

1. TANK as hard as possible.

2. Extract maximum value from the draft in form of BPA. That could mean you trade down from #1 to #2, cause Utah badly wants Dybantsa and you can still get Peterson at #2. It could mean trading down from #3 to #4, cause you think Wilson will be better than Boozer. But BPA pick decisions need to be made.

3. Use the TPE.

4. Use the MLE.

We have two major question marks in our starting five with Irving and Lively. We should not do anything major, until we know about them. Everything changes based on their health alone.

I’m actually in agreement with 1-4.  That includes the ‘possibility’ of trading down.  At this point you can’t exclude it because you don’t know what the offers might look like or which teams are a slot or two below us and what they might have to offer.   

It is the same thing with the way I constructed optionality around the third stringers on my depth chart. It COULD be a player.  It COULD be the 30th overall pick. We have no idea what teams might give us to offload $21mm of salary or what they might give us for Gafford or PJ.  We also have no idea whether a sweetener might be needed to get someone even more valuable that we’d be able to get without the sweetener.   Since we have no idea, it makes sense to me to maintain flexibility in my assumptions.  If you are so married to the idea that keeping the 30th pick is mandatory, feel free to build your own depth chart that reflects the intransigence of that ridiculous position.

[Smitty]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned here is that if you're penciling in Bagley as your backup Big or Jones as you backup Guard in next years depth chart and you think it will take more than the VetMin, the Mavs would have to use part of the MLE to bring them back. Are you as excited for them to be in the plans next year, if it means you're using the MLE on those guys? Jones current salary is $7M. Bagley is VetMin. If both want a raise, are you ok with splitting the MLE and bringing Jones back for ~$9M and Bagley ~$6M. Something to think about...

[DanSchwartzgan]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned here is that if you're penciling in Bagley as your backup Big or Jones as you backup Guard in next years depth chart and you think it will take more than the VetMin, the Mavs would have to use part of the MLE to bring them back. Are you as excited for them to be in the plans next year, if it means you're using the MLE on those guys? Jones current salary is $7M. Bagley is VetMin. If both want a raise, are you ok with splitting the MLE and bringing Jones back for ~$9M and Bagley ~$6M. Something to think about...

You have the non-Bird exception, so you are fine with Jones as long as you don’t give him a raise larger than 120% of his previous salary.  I don’t see a world in which Jones commands more than that.

The issue, as you’ve identified, is paying Bagley.  Any team that has Lively on the depth chart will have to have a workable plan for their 3rd center.  It doesn’t have to be a high dollar piece.  If, OTOH, you plan to move on from Gafford, you are definitely going to have to invest more than the Vet Min on the primary backup.  So, the plan with Bagley is fluid depending on what happens with Gafford and how well Bagley plays (or doesn’t).

[Chicagojk]

You have the non-Bird exception, so you are fine with Jones as long as you don’t give him a raise larger than 120% of his previous salary.  I don’t see a world in which Jones commands more than that.

The issue, as you’ve identified, is paying Bagley.  Any team that has Lively on the depth chart will have to have a workable plan for their 3rd center.  It doesn’t have to be a high dollar piece.  If, OTOH, you plan to move on from Gafford, you are definitely going to have to invest more than the Vet Min on the primary backup.  So, the plan with Bagley is fluid depending on what happens with Gafford and how well Bagley plays (or doesn’t).

This is an important stretch for Jones.   He has had a rough year and a half.   Can he be a good backup point guard again?   Mavs need good point guard depth because you have to factor in at least 20 missed Kyrie games.  If Jones can be a good back up point guard, I actually like the depth chart of Kyrie, Jones, Nembhard.   

Probably important for Bagley too.   He needs to prove he is more than a minimum guy and closer to the range he is currently making.   I think the Mavs would have moved him if they got an asset back they deemed worthy.    He should get a lot of minutes to show what he can do.   

Even is they play well, both players could be boxed out if Dallas drafts a player that plays their position anyway.

[Smitty]

Bagley has played in 328 games out of a possible 605 in his career. 54% availability. That's about 44 games/year.

Lively has played in 98 games out of a possible 246. 40% availability. That's about 32 games/year.

Gafford has played in 414 games out of a possible 517. 80% availability. That's about 66 games/year.


I'm not saying the Mavs can't or shouldn't move Gafford this summer, but it would be very foolish to go into the season with Lively/Bagley as your starter/backup.

[Mavs2021]

Bagley has played in 328 games out of a possible 605 in his career. 54% availability. That's about 44 games/year.

Lively has played in 98 games out of a possible 246. 40% availability. That's about 32 games/year.

Gafford has played in 414 games out of a possible 517. 80% availability. That's about 66 games/year.


I'm not saying the Mavs can't or shouldn't move Gafford this summer, but it would be very foolish to go into the season with Lively/Bagley as your starter/backup.

I agree 100%. Though I do want to see another small ball option: PF Flagg/ C Washington.

[F Gump]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned here is that if you're penciling in Bagley as your backup Big or Jones as you backup Guard in next years depth chart and you think it will take more than the VetMin, the Mavs would have to use part of the MLE to bring them back. Are you as excited for them to be in the plans next year, if it means you're using the MLE on those guys? Jones current salary is $7M. Bagley is VetMin. If both want a raise, are you ok with splitting the MLE and bringing Jones back for ~$9M and Bagley ~$6M. Something to think about...

Re Jones and Bagley ....
1 I am far from being sold on whether they are a priority ro bring back. They both have MAJOR issues in their game, and we will get a chance to see more over the next 2 months.

2 You assume they will command MLE money, or at least healthy slices, but I do not. In addition, each of them has signing rights!. I think the Mavs would be more likely to use those if they wanted to sign them, over any part of the MLE.

To address the specifics of roster building cap management on them, the reality is that after you include draft picks, the Mavs will be doing very little external shopping. The picks will bring them to 12. They will have 7 players with signing rights - Jones, Bagley, Middleton, Nemby, Cisse, Powell, Williams. 

Besides the resigning rights with each, they will have MLE, BAE, TPE 20M, TPE 6M, and sign and trades to fill up those 3 slots. Since those are presumably end of roster guys, we dont want big salary being spent anyhow. They have an unlimited number of minimums to offer.

TO THE SPECIFIC YOU ASKED
At those numbers (which I think are way too much, but I will play) you pay Jones with his NQ rights of 8.4m iirc, and you pay Bagley with BAE. If they are forcing more than those numbers to something you need elsewhere, you say no. Both are of limited utility.

[mvossman]

Re Jones and Bagley ....
1 I am far from being sold on whether they are a priority ro bring back. They both have MAJOR issues in their game, and we will get a chance to see more over the next 2 months.

2 You assume they will command MLE money, or at least healthy slices, but I do not. In addition, each of them has signing rights!. I think the Mavs would be more likely to use those if they wanted to sign them, over any part of the MLE.

To address the specifics of roster building cap management on them, the reality is that after you include draft picks, the Mavs will be doing very little external shopping. The picks will bring them to 12. They will have 7 players with signing rights - Jones, Bagley, Middleton, Nemby, Cisse, Powell, Williams. 

Besides the resigning rights with each, they will have MLE, BAE, TPE 20M, TPE 6M, and sign and trades to fill up those 3 slots. Since those are presumably end of roster guys, we dont want big salary being spent anyhow. They have an unlimited number of minimums to offer.

TO THE SPECIFIC YOU ASKED
At those numbers (which I think are way too much, but I will play) you pay Jones with his NQ rights of 8.4m iirc, and you pay Bagley with BAE. If they are forcing more than those numbers to something you need elsewhere, you say no. Both are of limited utility.

Jones is having such a terrible year, I don't know if he will get more than vet min at this point.  I will be curious to see how he finishes the season.

[Mavs2021]

I can see them giving Bagley the BAE, cause he provides a somewhat different skill set to Gafford and Lively, going with a healthy by committee approach. I think whether Tyus Jones returns largely depends on the draft, TPE and MLE.

Irving/Flemings/
Christie/Simons/Thompson

You will need a defender, not Tyus Jones. Schroeder, KCP and Caruso could all be TPE options.

[F Gump]

Jones is having such a terrible year, I don't know if he will get more than vet min at this point.  I will be curious to see how he finishes the season.

Exactly. And Bagley is much the same. While he is putting up "numbers," his value remains very limited at best. As an example of that, when the Mavs did the trade, they reportedly tried to shop him for a pick rather than keep him, and no one was interested, even though he's making minimum salary.

[Smitty]

2 You assume they will command MLE money, or at least healthy slices, but I do not. 

No, I do not assume that at all. I think both are VetMin players only. I was just making a comment to those that think they are better players, and will command more than the VetMin, that they might also need to consider that the Mavs may use the MLE or a portion of it for one or both of them and that it's something to take into consideration when talking about either being on the roster next season.

[F Gump]

No, I do not assume that at all. I think both are VetMin players only. I was just making a comment to those that think they are better players, and will command more than the VetMin, that they might also need to consider that the Mavs may use the MLE or a portion of it for one or both of them and that it's something to take into consideration when talking about either being on the roster next season.

Well, then if they are VetMin players, there's no reason to spend MLE chunks on them. You just say no and move on. Problem solved.

The same is true - no MLE would be needed - for a significant way upward BEYOND vet min. They have NQVPE rights for each, and also have BAE of about 5.5M, to allow some flexibility w/o using any MLE. 

Just as relevant is that they may decide they do not have roster space for one or both of them. So there's that.

[KillerLeft]

Jones was +18 in only 16 minutes against SA (one of the few Mavericks on the positive side) and had 7 ast/0 turnovers.

I wasn't able to watch the game, so this isn't intended as a post in support of him, necessarily, but my goodness is this team starved for competent PG play. The box score paints a picture of the team winning his minutes by simple virtue of "playing a PG who has a clue."

[Smitty]

Well, then if they are VetMin players, there's no reason to spend MLE chunks on them. You just say no and move on. Problem solved.

That would be my stance and it aligns with my personal opinion of both. My post was to those that think differently.

[F Gump]

Jones was +18 in only 16 minutes against SA (one of the few Mavericks on the positive side) and had 7 ast/0 turnovers. 

I wasn't able to watch the game, so this isn't intended as a post in support of him, necessarily, but my goodness is this team starved for competent PG play. The box score paints a picture of the team winning his minutes by simple virtue of "playing a PG who has a clue."

You may be right. But Jones initial perceived value so far is just a one-off, "small-sample-size alert" situation, with all the data being derived from a single game where he was a limited-minute backup in a blowout. 

We really need to see way way more. 

I think we may find that while they can put up numbers, both Jones and Bagley are sieves on the defensive end, greatly limiting any potential value. 

I am also reminded that with past trades where some scrub players were added, there was much excitement over supposed potential that really didn't ever exist. I have to notice that these guys were filler throw-ins for a reason (and it was not because they were high value possessions).

[mvossman]

You may be right. But Jones initial perceived value so far is just a one-off, "small-sample-size alert" situation, with all the data being derived from a single game where he was a limited-minute backup in a blowout. 

We really need to see way way more. 

I think we may find that while they can put up numbers, both Jones and Bagley are sieves on the defensive end, greatly limiting any potential value. 

I am also reminded that with past trades where some scrub players were added, there was much excitement over supposed potential that really didn't ever exist. I have to notice that these guys were filler throw-ins for a reason (and it was not because they were high value possessions).

I think his post was less about the new guys being good and more about how much better this offense has looked all season when they put a remotely competent PG on the floor.

[myconsumerclub]

FACT! we need a reliable center.

Big guys you will find later in the draft are often guys that can become good centers even starters are found later in the draft. It seems to happen more frequently that teams find centers in the 2nd for some reason.

This draft is blessed it has a lot of centers we have #30 and #50. Plus lot of mocks are showing the 2 Ivisic's brothers at the tail end or not even getting drafted. I like 7'2 260# Krivas at 30 and either one or the other Tom or Zvon will be out of the draft if not both and they play for Wagler's team so if you draft Wag you can easily get him to talk to the 2 brothers and see about adding them on 2 ways. Of course they are both Juniors and could elect to return to college for their senior season. They shoot a lot of 3 pointers which is good for guys 7'2 and 7'1. Zvon gets a lot of Blocks as well. Tom is the better rebounder and Illinois and Arizona are winning a lot of games and could go far in March madness.

As has been stated Lively Gafford and Bagley are all damaged goods and we can use Bagley at PF as a backup there as well.
We can find better 2 ways than what we have in this draft if we get to work now talking to them. Cisse was a find we can see if somebody else wants to part with a 2nd round pick to take him. I would look at adding some bigs with our 2 ways.

Kyrie is an injury risk as well. We experimented with Copper and Naji at point with mixed results but as the season progressed they improved at PG duties. B Will lost his 40% shooting ability, Tyus us a small guy but Nembhard is really small. Nobody we keep out of those 3 is going to light the world on fire they are backups to backups on most other teams if they even make those teams. Tyus looks older but 5 assists in 16 minutes a game is good and BWill lost his 3 point shooting or he was just lucky for a bit with us last season. Nembhard is a rookie and he could improve in his second season so I probably lean towards keeping him. I am told we may be drafting a PG with our 1st pick. That helps matters a lot. If we use that guy next to Kyrie then we also need to use him as the PG when Kyrie is out. A big PG would help matters.

We have cap space and a MLE we could use that or a trade exception to find a decent PG. Coby White is an UFA and strangely so is Egor Demin in BKN as a RFA. He is young enough for Coopers timeline and has a lot of upside. I wanted us to draft him before we won the first pick of the draft and made that decision look dumb.

Wings we got Max Naji Klay Martin and AJ if he can play there. Will the Mavs buy him out if he does not look like a keeper the last few games? I suspect that they will buy out Middleton so he can go play for a play off team.

We need to make more deals to trade guys who can bring back good picks in this years draft.

If we add a PG like Mikel Brown or a combo guard like Wagler with #7 we then have a need for a center at #30 and or #50 plus whoever we draft then we still need more 3 point shooting. If we can secure one more pick by trade and we can add a sniper like Milan Momcilovic who will get called Mom I think we are good at the 3 pointers when Kyrie returns and Cooper continue to develop his shot.

The 3 M's 3m corporation could sponsor them
Montiejus https://www.tankathon.com/players/motiejus-krivas
Milan https://www.tankathon.com/players/milan-momcilovic
Mikel https://www.tankathon.com/players/mikel-brown-jr