TRADE: Tyus Jones to DAL | Branham to CHA

[Chicagojk]

Swapping Branham - a player Dallas would've waived - for Tyus Jones is a homerun A+ trade and adds to the haul for AD, which, given the circumstances, looks incredibly good.

Jones is an elite decision maker and floor general, exactly like Nimby, except Jones has done it in the NBA. It's no coincidence some of Flagg's best minutes have come alongside Nimbhardt. Jones will make Flagg's life MUCH better. 

Jones is also one of the best ball security guards in the NBA, period. This team has been plagued by turnovers and that will change dramatically. I expect him to start until Kyrie returns and he could be a long-term keeper as one of the best backup PGs in the league.

Yeah, he has typically been a low turnover guard.  Although, some of his distractors say this is because he never takes any chances.   He has also had a nice floater.   

It will be interesting to see how the point guard minutes are split up.  Do they still start without a point guard?   Nemby may run out of time if not converted, but it will be interesting to see the rotation.

[KillerLeft]

I think Mavs will not be tanking hard. They are too far "behind" the worst teams and on the other hand too far from play-in. Probably also not good enough to connect some serious win series that would significantly improve their standing anyway. I think they can afford to just play best they can to build a culture.

I kind of agree...but I hope that IF it turns out they're good enough to lessen their chances they do the smart thing at the end of the season.

[KillerLeft]

I think Jones is probably the starter at the 1 down the stretch. I think they traded for him because they like him, and they're hoping he can be the backup next season.

If there's a downside, it's probably for fans of either Nembhard, Williams or both, because I imagine this signals that the organization has decided they're not comfortable with either, moving forward. Maybe Nembhard is kept, but my guess is that Williams is gone when his contract runs out.

[vfromlmf]

I expect Tyus Jones to start. This was a Kidd move. He's not a playoff caliber starter but this isn't a playoff team. We're talking about running a team the right way and not making rookie mistakes. Flagg deserves it. Same with Middleton. He'll be great for development. No way they turn this into a shit show and frustrate everyone. Flagg needs to continue to sharpen his mental axe. The vets will play, for sure. Bagley will backup Gafford.

AJJ might see Hardy-type minutes. The Mavs know what they have there. He has potential but obviously needs time.

[KillerLeft]

I expect Tyus Jones to start. This was a Kidd move. He's not a playoff caliber starter but this isn't a playoff team. We're talking about running a team the right way and not making rookie mistakes. Flagg deserves it. Same with Middleton. He'll be great for development. No way they turn this into a shit show and frustrate everyone. Flagg needs to continue to sharpen his mental axe. The vets will play, for sure. Bagley will backup Gafford.

AJJ might see Hardy-type minutes. The Mavs know what they have there. He has potential but obviously needs time.

Agree on Jones starting. Same page there. 

I'll be SHOCKED if Middleton isn't bought out. I doubt he ever reports, even.

What I think this Jones trade (might) portend is that it has suddenly become more important for Cisse to be converted to a real contract than Nembhard, but we'll see.

[WillE]

I think Jones is probably the starter at the 1 down the stretch. I think they traded for him because they like him, and they're hoping he can be the backup next season.

If there's a downside, it's probably for fans of either Nembhard, Williams or both, because I imagine this signals that the organization has decided they're not comfortable with either, moving forward. Maybe Nembhard is kept, but my guess is that Williams is gone when his contract runs out.

I wouldn't put Nembhard and Williams in the same category. Williams is not a playmaker. A ballhandler yes, but a scorer.

So getting Jones has more implications for Nemby than BWill.

And actually, with the departure of now to ballhandling scorers (Hardy, Branham), I can't imagine him be allowed to leave for nothing.

And the same should be true for Nemby. Mavs played and traded DLo and Exum instead of him.

[F Gump]

It will be interesting to see which of these they prioritize. Do they simply let the 2-ways of Nemby and Cisse run their course, or do they convert one or both to the reguar roster?

In the last 6 weeks of the season, they will only have 4 of these on the roster. Which 4?
Nemby (eligibility ends before Mar 1)
Cisse (eligibility ends around Mar 1)
Middleton (full Bird rights)
Bagley (non-Bird 140% signing rights)
Jones (non-Bird 140% signing rights)
Johnson (the only of these players under contract next season, with a TO for another year beyond that)

They also have two players with ending contracts they could re-sign in the summer after contract runs out (if not waived) but who could be waived instead
Powell (full Bird rights)
Williams (early Bird rights)

If you are playing GM, how do you play it? Who do you keep or waive (if anyone)?

[KillerLeft]

I wouldn't put Nembhard and Williams in the same category. Williams is not a playmaker. A ballhandler yes, but a scorer.

So getting Jones has more implications for Nemby than BWill.

And actually, with the departure of now to ballhandling sorers (Hardy, Branham), I can't imagine him be allowed to leave for nothing.

And the same should be true for Nemby. Mavs played and traded DLo and Exum instead of him.

Hey, I like Williams as much as the next guy, trust me. I get it. 

But, there are also a couple of guys like that on most teams, and it can't be denied that the Mavs went out of their way to get Tyus Jones, even adding about $2 million this year to do so. 

They are practically SCREAMING that they think they need better guard play RIGHT AWAY, and I don't think they do it unless they think there's at least a chance he (Jones) makes this roster next season. They are paying $2 M extra for better play in a losing season and a chance to develop a relationship, designed to get him to want to play here next year. That's the only way it makes sense. 

Do you think they view him as a starter next year? I don't. Can he (or Williams, or Nembhard) play NEXT TO Kyrie? Nope. It's easy math. At the very least, this signals they are less than comfortable feeling like they NEED one of those guys to be the backup PG next year. Bare minimum, this is intended to let them know they need to improve. I'd bet it's more than that.

[WillE]

Hey, I like Williams as much as the next guy, trust me. I get it. 

But, there are also a couple of guys like that on most teams, and it can't be denied that the Mavs went out of their way to get Tyus Jones, even adding about $2 million this year to do so. 

They are practically SCREAMING that they think they need better guard play RIGHT AWAY, and I don't think they do it unless they think there's at least a chance he (Jones) makes this roster next season. They are paying $2 M extra for better play in a losing season and a chance to develop a relationship, designed to get him to want to play here next year. That's the only way it makes sense. 

Do you think they view him as a starter next year? I don't. Can he (or Williams, or Nembhard) play NEXT TO Kyrie? Nope. It's easy math. At the very least, this signals they are less than comfortable feeling like they NEED one of those guys to be the backup PG next year. Bare minimum, this is intended to let them know they need to improve. I'd bet it's more than that.

Fully agree. 

But all of that doesn't mean there won't be a role for both next season:
Yes, Jones get's a try out to be the backup to Kyrie next season. If they truly already wanted him this summer, than they now admitted that their option b (DLo) didn't work and both sides can now be looking forward to giving this run a chance.

Regardless of how this turns out, Nemby will most probably only have a role as 3rd playmaker. But I expect both sides to be fine with that, because for the Mavs he should remain cheap and for him there won't be better situations elsewhere available. If he improves/solidifies his play, he's got a legit chance at becoming a NBA backup playmaker.

For BWill: his speed is unmatched on this team and paired with Naji or Cooper, he doesn't even need to be the playmaker. So, while limited, there is a role for him available on this team, as long as there isn't added a super quick ballandler. But imho there are not many as fast or even faster than him in the league. So I wouldn't understand, why you wanna give that up without any need.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Jones was my choice in that draft. I really liked him.  He either went right in front of us or after.   He had a few years where he was one of the more underrated backup guards.  He was good.  Unfortunately in PHX and Orlando both fanbases could not wait to get rid of him.   He was bad in both spots and both spots needed good guard play.  I don't get this one.

Correct. He had his best years as Ja Morant's backup.

[DanSchwartzgan]

It will be interesting to see which of these they prioritize. Do they simply let the 2-ways of Nemby and Cisse run their wourse, or do they convert one or both to the reguar roster?

In the last 6 weeks of the season, they will only have 4 of these on the roster. Which 4?
Nemby (eligibility ends before Mar 1)
Cisse (eligibility ends around Mar 1)
Middleton (full Bird rights)
Bagley (non-Bird 140% signing rights)
Jones (non-Bird 140% signing rights)
Johnson (the only of these players under contract next season, with a TO for another year beyond that)

They also have two players with ending contracts they could re-sign in the summer after contract runs out (if not waived)
Powell (full Bird rights)
Williams (early Bird rights)

If you are playing GM, how do you play it? Who do you keep or waive (if anyone)?

Another important question is what is our budget?  With the 10 players under contract and two picks, I've got us about $42mm under the tax and $49mm under the first apron.  Whatever we do in 26/27 has to anticipate extensions kicking in in 27/28 for Christie, Lively and Naji.

One note before I start...we are talking about fringe NBA players here for the most part.  The team probably only has seven replacement level or above players and Lively and Irving are hurt and something is very wrong with PJ.  That leaves Flagg, Naji and Christie and Gafford.  With the possible exception of Bagley, none of these other guys are top nine rotation guys, so the decisions the team makes on them are not life altering in any way.  Still, what else are we going to discuss.  

Bigs:  Any team that has Lively on it will need a good third center (and maybe someone like Cisse occupying one of the two-way spots).  So, I'd love to see Bagley have some success and potentially keep him in that third center spot behind Lively and Gafford.  I'd also like a center project in the two-way slot.  I'm fine with it being Cisse, but I'm fine going a different direction also.  I don't see the need to sign him to a standard contract now.  He's been useful and he's fun and I like him, but he's no more valuable than the other guys we've cycled through here lately (BTW, kudo's to whichever co-GM has been in charge of two-ways the last two years).

PG:  I think Jones makes sense as the backup PG behind Kyrie next season.  His history shows he can be an above replacement level player...he just hasn't been that this season.  That is more upside than I project for either Williams or Nembhard.  Having Jones next season also allows the team to use its top pick on BPA.  So, keeping him this summer depends on the pick and whether you are paying him to be your second string or third string PG.

I don't see either Williams or Nembhard as more than third stringers on good teams.  I probably give Nembhard the edge based on his 3 point shot.  Since I don't see Nembhard as special, I don't see the need to cut someone to sign him to a standard contract now.  If you get a PG in the draft and keep Jones, you don't really need Williams or Nembhard as backups.  If you draft a different position or don't keep Jones, you might need one to be your third stringer.  I don't want to go into next season with one of these guys as the primary backup behind Kyrie.  

AJ Johnson kind of muddies the third PG conversation.  Is that his role?  Or, is he the third string SG.  I give Johnson at least another year and see if he can be developed.  The athleticism is there, but does he have the heart and head for the work that is required.  Two teams have given up on him already, so it isn't looking good.  But, he jumps off the screen when he's good.  Unless he's a total nut job (or has no sense of how to play team ball), I'd prioritize him over Williams or Nembhard.  Obviously difficult to say having not seen him in a game environment.  But, I see more upside there than with the other two.  Plus, he's under contract anyway...so why not.  

Middleton:  For cultural reasons, I hang onto Middleton the rest of the season.  Like Naji, you can run some offense through him, which mitigates the need for playing Nembhard.  But, if you keep both picks and Bagley and Jones and Nembhard (potentially), you are out of roster spots for 26/27.  If you draft a PG and keep one of Jones/Nembhard, then you can keep Middleton and still add someone else.  There are too many what-ifs to game plan this out.  I can see paying Middleton to stay another year.  He and Klay would then both expire and you'd have the space to extend Lively, Max and Naji.  I can also see moving on from him so you can spend the MLE (or use the TPE to bring in a S&T free agent).  

The forward position was already crowded without Middleton.  So, it won't hurt my heart if they buy him out.  But as others have noted, he's a good culture guy and having more veteran leadership that helps keep the locker room positive through the rest of the season is a good thing.  I'd rather use the MLE (or better, the TPE for a S&T) in the summer to add another real NBA player to the mix.  But, if you can structure his contract so that he and Klay are expiring trade chips, I'd be OK with keeping him too.  That might mean stashing the OKC pick overseas depending on what happens at the PG spot.  Again, too much uncertainty to game plan this out.  

We need one more starter from somewhere.  Right now that doesn't project to come from the draft.  It looks like a PG project behind Kyrie is the most likely outcome there.  So, my efforts this summer are much more about a SF who fits between Flagg and Christie much more than it is the end-of-bench guys.  If you can do that and draft well and Lively is healthy, you start to make sense and you have enough excess to put players into a trade and still have a solid bench.

Lively      Gafford     Bagley
Flagg       PJ            Middleton or Pick
Starter     Naji         Martin
Christie    Klay         Johnson
Kyrie        Pick         Jones or Nembhard

[Smitty]

^ I agree with pretty much everything here. One thing to add is the Mavs ability to use some of the expirings (Klay & Naji), with or without the addition of the positive value guys (PJW & Gafford) to make a trade for a real difference maker at that Wing spot.

Naji $9.4M, Klay $17.4M, Gafford $17.2M, PJW $19.8M give you the ability to trade for a higher salary, impact player, if that's something that presents itself. Using some of your depth, that may or may not be a great fit with Coop, to get a guy that is. It's another way to open up a roster spot or two for one of those fringe guys we're talking about.

[JamesConway912]

I got REALLY excited about the thought of Johnson suddenly running the point for us over the last ~ 30 games. That would have been as much of a build in competitive disadvantage as possible.

So naturally I am very skeptical about Tyus being here. He is a genuinely solid PG. No stud but somebody who can run an offense and help you steady the ship while your starters are out. Exactly what you don’t really want around when the goal is to stink it up badly until the end of the year.

So I am not really a fan of this move right now. Bringing him back next season would be great. I remain low on Nembhard so a steady bench PG would be helpful then but that is something I would have taken care of in FA not via trade right now where the margin for error is slim in the standings.

He is not gonna destroy the tank by himself but it’s one of those small moves that could decide a game here & there.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I got REALLY excited about the thought of Johnson suddenly running the point for us over the last ~ 30 games. That would have been as much of a build in competitive disadvantage as possible.

So naturally I am very skeptical about Tyus being here. He is a genuinely solid PG. No stud but somebody who can run an offense and help you steady the ship while your starters are out. Exactly what you don’t really want around when the goal is to stink it up badly until the end of the year.

So I am not really a fan of this move right now. Bringing him back next season would be great. I remain low on Nembhard so a steady bench PG would be helpful then but that is something I would have taken care of in FA not via trade right now where the margin for error is slim in the standings.

He is not gonna destroy the tank by himself but it’s one of those small moves that could decide a game here & there.

I agree.  Really all of Middleton, Bagley and Jones create the possibility of adding a random win or two here and there.  If you listen to the entire press conference yesterday, they think it is more important to have people around Flagg that make things easier for him.  So, it is a development question.  Do you throw him in the deep end with ankle weights on or do you put enough structure around him that he can work on the things that will most pay off in the long run.

[vfromlmf]

With modern roster construction I think you want a lead guard, a couple of playable bigs, and as many two-way guys as you can find who are 6' 5" or taller. The archetype if probably 6'7 - 6'8" 225 pound guys who are switchable, can handle, and score at three levels. The Spurs play six of those guys in their top-9 man rotation. I'll just call them "wings".

The Mavs currently have Flagg, Christie, PJW and Naji who fit the mold. Caleb Martin is a poor man's energy-guy version. Middleton certainly fits the archetype but it remains to be seen how much gas is left in the tank. Klay is more limited at this point. He can't really handle and his game is arguably from another era. AJ Johnson is a flyer.

Kyrie is obviously our lead guard and a guy like Tyus Jones makes a lot of sense behind him. We'll see how he plays through the end of the season but the hope is Jones can run the team if/when Kyrie is hurt. For the third small guard I think they go with BWill because he brings a singular superpower to the mix. If the team is flat or need scoring you can put in B Will and say cook. He's not a point guard and he's not a regular rotation guy. He's a game changer. It will be interesting to see if they keep a 4th small guard but I kind of prefer using a 2-way there as Dan suggested.

Here's how I see our 15-man depth chart

Small guard: Kyrie -- Jones -- Williams

Wing: Christie -- Klay -- AJJ
Wing: Flagg -- Naji -- Martin
Wing: PJW -- Middleton

Big: Lively -- Gafford -- Bagley -- Powell

This obviously won't be the team when training camp break next season but it's a solid foundation. I don't foresee an NBA contract coming for Nembhardt or Cisse.

[F Gump]

Another important question is what is our budget?  With the 10 players under contract and two picks, I've got us about $42mm under the tax and $49mm under the first apron.  Whatever we do in 26/27 has to anticipate extensions kicking in in 27/28 for Christie, Lively and Naji.

One note before I start...we are talking about fringe NBA players here for the most part.  The team probably only has seven replacement level or above players and Lively and Irving are hurt and something is very wrong with PJ.  That leaves Flagg, Naji and Christie and Gafford.  With the possible exception of Bagley, none of these other guys are top nine rotation guys, so the decisions the team makes on them are not life altering in any way.  Still, what else are we going to discuss.  

Bigs:  Any team that has Lively on it will need a good third center (and maybe someone like Cisse occupying one of the two-way spots).  So, I'd love to see Bagley have some success and potentially keep him in that third center spot behind Lively and Gafford.  I'd also like a center project in the two-way slot.  I'm fine with it being Cisse, but I'm fine going a different direction also.  I don't see the need to sign him to a standard contract now.  He's been useful and he's fun and I like him, but he's no more valuable than the other guys we've cycled through here lately (BTW, kudo's to whichever co-GM has been in charge of two-ways the last two years).

PG:  I think Jones makes sense as the backup PG behind Kyrie next season.  His history shows he can be an above replacement level player...he just hasn't been that this season.  That is more upside than I project for either Williams or Nembhard.  Having Jones next season also allows the team to use its top pick on BPA.  So, keeping him this summer depends on the pick and whether you are paying him to be your second string or third string PG.

I don't see either Williams or Nembhard as more than third stringers on good teams.  I probably give Nembhard the edge based on his 3 point shot.  Since I don't see Nembhard as special, I don't see the need to cut someone to sign him to a standard contract now.  If you get a PG in the draft and keep Jones, you don't really need Williams or Nembhard as backups.  If you draft a different position or don't keep Jones, you might need one to be your third stringer.  I don't want to go into next season with one of these guys as the primary backup behind Kyrie.  

AJ Johnson kind of muddies the third PG conversation.  Is that his role?  Or, is he the third string SG.  I give Johnson at least another year and see if he can be developed.  The athleticism is there, but does he have the heart and head for the work that is required.  Two teams have given up on him already, so it isn't looking good.  But, he jumps off the screen when he's good.  Unless he's a total nut job (or has no sense of how to play team ball), I'd prioritize him over Williams or Nembhard.  Obviously difficult to say having not seen him in a game environment.  But, I see more upside there than with the other two.  Plus, he's under contract anyway...so why not.  

Middleton:  For cultural reasons, I hang onto Middleton the rest of the season.  Like Naji, you can run some offense through him, which mitigates the need for playing Nembhard.  But, if you keep both picks and Bagley and Jones and Nembhard (potentially), you are out of roster spots for 26/27.  If you draft a PG and keep one of Jones/Nembhard, then you can keep Middleton and still add someone else.  There are too many what-ifs to game plan this out.  I can see paying Middleton to stay another year.  He and Klay would then both expire and you'd have the space to extend Lively, Max and Naji.  I can also see moving on from him so you can spend the MLE (or use the TPE to bring in a S&T free agent).  

The forward position was already crowded without Middleton.  So, it won't hurt my heart if they buy him out.  But as others have noted, he's a good culture guy and having more veteran leadership that helps keep the locker room positive through the rest of the season is a good thing.  I'd rather use the MLE (or better, the TPE for a S&T) in the summer to add another real NBA player to the mix.  But, if you can structure his contract so that he and Klay are expiring trade chips, I'd be OK with keeping him too.  That might mean stashing the OKC pick overseas depending on what happens at the PG spot.  Again, too much uncertainty to game plan this out.  

We need one more starter from somewhere.  Right now that doesn't project to come from the draft.  It looks like a PG project behind Kyrie is the most likely outcome there.  So, my efforts this summer are much more about a SF who fits between Flagg and Christie much more than it is the end-of-bench guys.  If you can do that and draft well and Lively is healthy, you start to make sense and you have enough excess to put players into a trade and still have a solid bench.

Lively      Gafford     Bagley
Flagg       PJ            Middleton or Pick
Starter     Naji         Martin
Christie    Klay         Johnson
Kyrie        Pick         Jones or Nembhard

Thanks for that long analysis.

So back to the question. If I understand you correctly, your preference would be that no one gets waived, and they do NOT make moves to convert Nemby and/or Cisse to regular NBA deals and to lock them up on future years at NBA minimum deals (which means their seasons end by the end of Feb and they go back to the GL)?

[F Gump]

I agree.  Really all of Middleton, Bagley and Jones create the possibility of adding a random win or two here and there.  If you listen to the entire press conference yesterday, they think it is more important to have people around Flagg that make things easier for him.  So, it is a development question.  Do you throw him in the deep end with ankle weights on or do you put enough structure around him that he can work on the things that will most pay off in the long run.

Isn't it likely that the Mavs are of the belief that not only do they have higher priorities than chasing all the losses they can attain, but also that they can't really make much of a diff anyhow, even with a random extra win here or there?

They won't make the play-in, so their limit is pick 10 on one end. They also have a really hard time "catching up" to any of those currently in the top 6, most of whom have a sizable gap difference, and that includes 2 teams (WAS, UT) who simply MUST land in the 1-6 range or lower or else they have a big risk to lose their pick. So I expect those in 1-6 will do what it takes to say in that 1-6 tier.

That means the Mavs are set to land in the 7-10 range (currently in 7) and I would suggest they may not be all that worried - at least for now - as to which of those it is. Maybe in the last week or 2 of the season they shift a bit, but I think they want to have the best play possible from a lot of backup-caliber players that are unlikely to win even if they are "unleashed".

[vfromlmf]

I think the consensus about this draft is you have an obvious top-3 and arguably a pretty clear top-4 or 5 and then things really level off. It's an eye of the beholder draft beyond 5. Lottery odds really level off as well. The difference between having the 6th worst record and the 9th is only 4.5%.

My strong opinion is just play the games and let the chips fall where they may. It's a lottery.

I think the Mavs know what they have in their guys. They need to see what they have in Jones, Middleton, Bagley and AJJ. None of them will be expensive and understanding we're not going to be competing for a championship next year, there's a reasonable case to be made for keeping all of them. I'd be surprised if they all open next season on the roster but we have right of first refusal so it would be foolish to waive them for nothing.

I like Nembhard and I think he's proven himself to be one of the best basketball players in the world. Just maybe not in the NBA.

I like Cisse too and I wouldn't be mad if he were our 3rd big but I don't think you waive a legit NBA rotation player like Bagley or even Powell just to keep him.

At the rissk of taking this too far ... keep in mind. Bagley's PER this year is 20.6 which would rank SECOND on the Mavs behind dearly departed AD.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I think the consensus about this draft is you have an obvious top-3 and arguably a pretty clear top-4 or 5 and then things really level off. It's an eye of the beholder draft beyond 5. Lottery odds really level off as well. The difference between having the 6th worst record and the 9th is only 4.5%.

My strong opinion is just play the games and let the chips fall where they may. It's a lottery.

YEP

That's why I'm not too worried about exactly where we end up 6-9 in the tanking standings.  We're going to need big time luck either way in the lottery. Or be good at drafting. I remember when we were arguing DSJ vs Frank Nitilikina and Donovan Mitchell went later than both of them.

Also why I don't understand why everyone was so worked up about Indiana trading their pick top 4 protected.

[mvossman]

Isn't it likely that the Mavs are of the belief that not only do they have higher priorities than chasing all the losses they can attain, but also that they can't really make much of a diff anyhow, even with a random extra win here or there?

They won't make the play-in, so their limit is pick 10 on one end. They also have a really hard time "catching up" to any of those currently in the top 6, most of whom have a sizable gap difference, and that includes 2 teams (WAS, UT) who simply MUST land in the 1-6 range or lower or else they have a big risk to lose their pick. So I expect those in 1-6 will do what it takes to say in that 1-6 tier.

That means the Mavs are set to land in the 7-10 range (currently in 7) and I would suggest they may not be all that worried - at least for now - as to which of those it is. Maybe in the last week or 2 of the season they shift a bit, but I think they want to have the best play possible from a lot of backup-caliber players that are unlikely to win even if they are "unleashed".

The 10th spot has a 14% chance to land top 4 and the 7th spot has a 32% Chance.  You more than double your odds by landing 7th.  Considering how valuable it would be to get a top 4 pick, I think an extra almost 20% chance is worth a lot.  I don't know what the Mavs mindset is going to be, but there is a lot of value in continuing to lose right now.