Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[mvossman]

There's zero chance the Mavs are operating as a second apron team next year.  So the decision is either trade AD now or in the offseason.  This is why IMO the Mavs are not in the drivers seat of negotiations as some are suggesting.  They HAVE to get rid of AD, probably more than Atlanta needs AD.

If you guys want to argue not to trade him now, we need reasoning why you think there will be better offers this summer.  Making an arbitrary line in the sand of not trading him unless you get the NOLA pick makes very little sense to me.  Someone else posted that you can wait until after the draft lottery so Atlanta knows where that pick is.  That's really the only reasonable argument I've seen for waiting to trade him until this summer.  Atlanta might be willing to include that pick if it doesn't end up being a top 3 or top 5 pick.

The only other team interested in him according to reports is Toronto.  Their assets are even worse than Atlanta's

Except it will be much harder for Atlanta to trade for AD then because most of their tradeable contracts will have expired.

[KillerLeft]

Except it will be much harder for Atlanta to trade for AD then because most of their tradeable contracts will have expired.

Right, so if we know that, then obviously, so do they. Kind of seems like motivation on their part to get it done now, don't you think?

[mvossman]

The report came out the other day a lot of teams in the East believe they are an AD away from the finals. So I lean more towards teams that are in legit contender status, such as Toronto, is CMB untouchable for them? They have all their future firsts if people are interested in those. Have to bring back some bad money. It’s unfortunate the Hornets haven’t been able to get hot and move into the playoff picture, because they could use AD and have a lot of nice pieces.

Toronto would have to send out some really bad salary to make that work.  I don't know how much draft capital I would want just to take on that Poeltl contract, but its probably more than they are interested in paying on top of assets for AD.  I don't know if CMB is untouchable, but he is a PF, which is the last position we need to fill.

[cow]

There's zero chance the Mavs are operating as a second apron team next year.  So the decision is either trade AD now or in the offseason.  This is why IMO the Mavs are not in the drivers seat of negotiations as some are suggesting.  They HAVE to get rid of AD, probably more than Atlanta needs AD.

If you guys want to argue not to trade him now, we need reasoning why you think there will be better offers this summer.  Making an arbitrary line in the sand of not trading him unless you get the NOLA pick makes very little sense to me.  Someone else posted that you can wait until after the draft lottery so Atlanta knows where that pick is.  That's really the only reasonable argument I've seen for waiting to trade him until this summer.  Atlanta might be willing to include that pick if it doesn't end up being a top 3 or top 5 pick.

The only other team interested in him according to reports is Toronto.  Their assets are even worse than Atlanta's

I think there is a middle ground though.  We'd all love the NOP pick, but if that's unlikely, it's equally valid to like or not like what an Atlanta offer looks like without that pick.  

Yes there is smoke around Atlanta, but that doesn't mean they are the only ones interested in AD, they are just the ones with the most leaks around them.

[mvossman]

Right, so if we know that, then obviously, so do they. Kind of seems like motivation on their part to get it done now, don't you think?

Yes.  I literally posted right after the trade announced that doing it without including Mavs might give Mavs more leverage.  Hopefully they are motivated to pull the trigger, but honestly if I was a Hawks fan I would probably prefer to focus on the longer term with my youngish core and great pick.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Yea, it seems it lines up better for both team to do it now before the trade deadline. I think it ends up getting done.

Will be interesting to see what it ends up being. Risacher and that 2027 1st is my bar.

[mvossman]

I think there is a middle ground though.  We'd all love the NOP pick, but if that's unlikely, it's equally valid to like or not like what an Atlanta offer looks like without that pick.  

Yes there is smoke around Atlanta, but that doesn't mean they are the only ones interested in AD, they are just the ones with the most leaks around them.

Sure.  But the sad reality is that any team that has expressed interest can't seem to put together a decent package.  The Atlanta deal without the NOP pick is better than anything I have heard from those other teams.  Maybe it gets better in the summer, but I'm not sure how.

[mvossman]

Yea, it seems it lines up better for both team to do it now before the trade deadline.  I think it ends up getting done.

Will be interesting to see what it ends up being.  Risacher and that 2027 1st is my bar.

I'm not sure which is more valuable between that pick and the crazy swap 26 pick.  That pick will probably be later than the 27, but 26 is supposed to be a much better draft, and I would like to get the young guys in here sooner rather than later.

[Winter]

I think the Mavericks actually want the expiring contracts of KP and Kennard. So I think Atlanta is the suitor the Mavs would like.

I think the Mavericks want two First Round picks. Maybe one pick and a better player, but I believe the closest discussion I can imagine is likely the two picks. Atlanta probably doesn't want to give away two picks, but if I'm the Mavs, you simply wait until February and see what happens. Maybe another opportunity with another team shows itself. But I think Atlanta might come around soon if the Mavs are adamant about what they expect.

I'm not sure how I'm going to feel at the trade deadline if nothing has happened. I just don't know. I don't want to wait until summer, but waiting until February has very little risk.

[cow]

Sure.  But the sad reality is that any team that has expressed interest can't seem to put together a decent package.  The Atlanta deal without the NOP pick is better than anything I have heard from those other teams.  Maybe it gets better in the summer, but I'm not sure how.

Not every organization leaks though.  Trades no one expects can happen as evidenced by our very own team.  A lot can happen before the trade dead line and a lot can happen leading up to the offseason.  Taking the best offer doesn't automatically make it good is my point.  It's fine if you like that package, and Dallas might too, but the opposite perspective is valid.

[mvossman]

Not every organization leaks though.  Trades no one expects can happen as evidenced by our very own team.  A lot can happen before the trade dead line and a lot can happen leading up to the offseason.  Taking the best offer doesn't automatically make it good is my point.  It's fine if you like that package, and Dallas might too, but the opposite perspective is valid.

Apparently its been the Mavs doing most of the leaking though, so if there were other suiters talking to the Mavs we would probably be hearing about it.  A lot of things need to work out for a deal like this.  It needs to be a win now team given AD age, they need to be able to send out nearly 60 mil in salary without significantly impacting the win now goal, that salary can't be bad contracts or they need enough assets to compensate for it, and they need the actual assets to pay for AD.  Very few teams can meet all of that criteria.  I'm not sure who will in the summer (Atlanta won't after the TDL).

I agree the best offer may not be a good one.  You have to weigh that against potential future offers and potentially doing nothing.  Honestly I think the odds of the line I (and some others) are drawing in the sand is 50/50 at best to be met.

[Mavs2021]

As bad as the 2 1/2 years left on his current contract are, I honestly have to say any FO that extends AD right now is beyond stupid.

Lazy, injury prone, mediocre offensively and he´s asking for a virtual four year contract at age 33 at an average salary of $50M (if we assume a "modest" 40M p.a. in the two year extension). If Rich Paul insists on any "modest" contract extension by the trade partner, I´m shocked there is even one. Take the extension off the table and it´s a little different discussion.

If AD was a true professional, you could probably ignore the extension demand, since he still has 2 1/2 years left on his current contract, but I think we can all agree that AD is completely able to pout, tool down and go on golf vacation for 2 1/2 years.

That´s sadly everything you have to factor in, if we were honest with ourselves.

The true value of AD´s contract, at the time of the Luka trade, has never been properly discussed, since the trade was so beyond dumb that nobody ever looked at the contract in isolation.

[F Gump]

Totally agree. 

I'm not sure it's realistic to expect THAT pick, but I believe they'll get 1-2 good ones out of this, and I LOVE that they're demanding that pick right now, especially in the light of this Trae Young trade. ATL is probably facing more than a little backlash locally for salary dumping their beloved star, so I bet they're super keen right about now to have the other, more positive shoe to drop.

Here's the problem with getting "good picks" from ATL - other than the NO pick, there aren't going to be any. The Mavs know this. 

Once ATL gets AD, their 1sts are all very likely to be in the 20s, given that this will push ATL to the upper tier in the East, which means the Mavs get (*looking at Mavs history since the title*) more stuff like Omax Prosper, Josh Green, Wendell Moore (pick traded to HOU, as Mavs moved back and then up and got J Hardy), Justin Anderson, Shane Larkin, Justin Hamilton, and so on. That's not useful at all. Ugh. And that sort of crap is what you get for AD? No thanks, I would just keep him.

[FireNicoHarrison]

I don't even care about bad contracts, maybe they are good for future trades.

We needs picks and young guys, the rest Is irrilevant.
We are in rebuilding mode.

[cow]

Apparently its been the Mavs doing most of the leaking though, so if there were other suiters talking to the Mavs we would probably be hearing about it.  A lot of things need to work out for a deal like this.  It needs to be a win now team given AD age, they need to be able to send out nearly 60 mil in salary without significantly impacting the win now goal, that salary can't be bad contracts or they need enough assets to compensate for it, and they need the actual assets to pay for AD.  Very few teams can meet all of that criteria.  I'm not sure who will in the summer (Atlanta won't after the TDL).

I agree the best offer may not be a good one.  You have to weigh that against potential future offers and potentially doing nothing.  Honestly I think the odds of the line I (and some others) are drawing in the sand is 50/50 at best to be met.

I guess I'm fine doing nothing and exploring the possibility of AD being here for the long term.  While he's oft injured and not Batman, he also seems to be good teammate and mostly productive when he is on the floor.  Something could materialize down the road for him.  As Gump pointed out, Atlanta's picks aren't going to have a ton of value, especially if we don't drastically improve our drafting prowess. I'd rather spin my wheels with AD playing 60% of my games than spin those same wheels with the next Josh Green playing in 90% of those games.

[mvossman]

Here's the problem with getting "good picks" from ATL - other than the NO pick, there aren't going to be any. The Mavs know this. 

Once ATL gets AD, their 1sts are all very likely to be in the 20s, given that this will push ATL to the upper tier in the East, which means the Mavs get (*looking at Mavs history since the title*) more stuff like Omax Prosper, Josh Green, Wendell Moore (pick traded to HOU, as Mavs moved back and then up and got J Hardy), Justin Anderson, Shane Larkin, Justin Hamilton, and so on. That's not useful at all. Ugh. And that sort of crap is what you get for AD? No thanks, I would just keep him.

The Atlanta firsts are a bunch of crazy swaps that I don't think will be that impacted by Atlanta's record.

Lol, I noticed you didn't bother to mention Brunson in your list of late firsts early seconds.

So if you are keeping AD are you paying his extension?

[FireNicoHarrison]

I guess I'm fine doing nothing and exploring the possibility of AD being here for the long term.  While he's oft injured and not Batman, he also seems to be good teammate and mostly productive when he is on the floor.  Something could materialize down the road for him.  As Gump pointed out, Atlanta's picks aren't going to have a ton of value, especially if we don't drastically improve our drafting prowess.  I'd rather spin my wheels with AD playing 60% of my games than spin those same wheels with the next Josh Green playing in 90% of those games.

He is lazy, i don't want around Cooper honestly.

[cow]

He is lazy, i don't want around Cooper honestly.

I'm not worried about Cooper in that regard.  There are some locker room cancers I wouldn't want on my team, but I don't think AD is that or anywhere near that really.

[F Gump]

IF Atlanta does NOT want McCullom and would prefer Klay, there is a path that can accomplish this as a separate transaction from Atlanta's perspective and likely result in TE's coming back to Dallas.

Klay and Martin get Dallas within 5 million of McCullom which means a Hardy, Powell, Exum, or DAR addition results in a net wash, with the possibility of adding in the phantom salary of Djurisic to Dallas (not using Exum).

From that point it becomes difficult to navigate the AD trade as a separate deal without Kispert and Kennard aggregating KP's salary, then adding 2 of the 3 remaining of Hardy, Powell, Exum, or DAR.

From Dallas' perspective this is one major trade with AD returning the bulk of the incoming salary and other pieces (primarily Klay) yielding TE's.

Some notes:
1 I don't care about TEs at all (and BOTH teams will get some, in any iteration of such a big-dollar deal), because most TEs never get used. 
2 This idea does (adding McCollum to the mix) does open up more possibilities. 
3 I wonder about what it does to both teams to move so many players, but ATL would be doing it anyhow, and the Mavs end up making it harder to win, which seems like a plus. So I think that wouldn't be a deal-killer.
4 However, by sending McCollum, ATL would be losing a big expiring contract, and while the end result could easily avoid tax for this season, I suspect the absence of McCollum sends them sailing over the tax line (and maybe even over A1) next season. I didn't do those maths, but that's a potential deal-killer, I would think.

Obviously the main thing is, get the NO #1, and another protected FRP from ATL. This is just the salary match. 

The parameters are an even number of bodies, ATL doesn't end up paying tax this season, and the Mavs keep Exum as the route to Nemby. 

The following fits those parameters FOR THIS SEASON:
DAL sends - AD, Hardy ......Klay, Martin, DAR
ATL sends - KP, Risacher, Kennard, Wallace ... McCollum

I do wonder what it does to ATL payroll next season, however, and if it can be revised where ATL still stays under that tax line (my projection is 201.7M). Daniels is getting a huge raise that has to be absorbed, which is the main problem.

[Mavs2021]

I'm not worried about Cooper in that regard.  There are some locker room cancers I wouldn't want on my team, but I don't think AD is that or anywhere near that really.

That´s true. Being a disruptive dickhead takes effort. AD just takes mental vacations. Once again nobody runs less on the court than AD. Harden is a similar level. Luka runs 0.8 miles per game (2.6 vs. 1.8) more than AD this season and people call Luka lazy for not moving his feet on defense.