Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[michaeltex]

Although I'm skeptical about the return DAL can get from ATL in an AD trade, I think it's important to try looking at the buyers POV. Having just gone through a house selling/buying experience last year gave me this perspective.

We have been watching AD closely for a year now and have dealt with all the frustration that went with his tenure. Plus the baggage of him replacing an absolute all-time fan favorite in the process. So we see a lot of the negatives and have to remind ourselves that his still really a phenomenal talent with game changing skills.

But the other team's POV, be it ATL or someone else, sees the stats that he puts up and how it would help their team but maybe discounts the negative issues in favor of adding said potential to their roster. So possibly the return, while not perfect, could be better than we think.

[Dirknows]

Although I'm skeptical about the return DAL can get from ATL in an AD trade, I think it's important to try looking at the buyers POV. Having just gone through a house selling/buying experience last year gave me this perspective.

We have been watching AD closely for a year now and have dealt with all the frustration that went with his tenure. Plus the baggage of him replacing an absolute all-time fan favorite in the process. So we see a lot of the negatives and have to remind ourselves that his still really a phenomenal talent with game changing skills.

But the other team's POV, be it ATL or someone else, sees the stats that he puts up and how it would help their team but maybe discounts the negative issues in favor of adding said potential to their roster. So possibly the return, while not perfect, could be better than we think.

The issue with AD isn't his stats or on-court impact, it's his inability to be on the court. If he was playing 90% of the games since we traded for him, we could legitimately expect a return like the NOP pick. Unfortunately, he always has some sort of minor injury.

[omahen]

The issue with AD isn't his stats or on-court impact, it's his inability to be on the court. If he was playing 90% of the games since we traded for him, we could legitimately expect a return like the NOP pick. Unfortunately, he always has some sort of minor injury.

In addition to that also his age and his very large contract for a beta

[F Gump]

I've been having to work between the Fanspo Trade Checker and the Spotrac Trade Checker to get a full picture of what works/doesn't work.  Unfortunately, they disagree about Atlanta's payroll.  Both sites have already moved players to their new teams.  Fanspo still has the number at $8.3mm under the tax.  Spotrac has it at $6.78mm.  Most of the difference appears to be some second rounder from 2024 named Nikola Djurisic.  He makes $1.272mm this year and Fanspo doesn't show him on Atlanta's roster at all.  

Atlanta does have four guys at the end of their roster who are either non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed.  But, it doesn't appear they did anything by yesterday to move off of any of them.  

I thought the possibilities of an AD deal that keeps Atlanta under the tax were tight when I was using the Fanspo number.  But, if it's the smaller one Spotrac number (which I fear is true), this gets even more challenging once the Trae deal becomes official.  It kind of lends credence to what Killer has said about why they might be holding this open.  If deadlines make deals, Atlanta may have created a deadline.

Spotrac salary total for ATL is 180,866,975. 
ESPN (trade machine) has the exact same number. 

That puts them a hair more than 7.0M below the 187,895,000 tax line, yes?

Obviously the trade must include AD on one side, and KP-Risacher-Kennard on the other to get the deal close, and then the Mavs add 2 players (or less) whose salaries won't take ATL over the tax line. The amount that can fit in there is about 6.225M.

IMO the best choice for the Mavs to fill that space is Hardy. That also helps next year payroll. The Powell-Exum combo is a way to fit in 2 players, but is worse for DAL because they then have no one left to waive for Nemby, and must cut much more salary (and a better player) instead. And there may be potential value available in offering to swap Kennard and/or KP to a contending team at the TDL (or sooner) for an expiring contract and a pick.

NO #1, later FRP, KP-R-Kennard
AD, Hardy

[mvossman]

Spotrac salary total for ATL is 180,866,975. 
ESPN (trade machine) has the exact same number. 

That puts them a hair more than 7.0M below the 187,895,000 tax line, yes?

Obviously the trade must include AD on one side, and KP-Risacher-Kennard on the other to get the deal close, and then the Mavs add 2 players (or less) whose salaries won't take ATL over the tax line. The amount that can fit in there is about 6.225M.

IMO the best choice for the Mavs to fill that space is Hardy. That also helps next year payroll. The Powell-Exum combo is a way to fit in 2 players, but is worse for DAL because they then have no one left to waive for Nemby, and must cut much more salary (and a better player) instead. And there may be potential value available in offering to swap Kennard and/or KP to a contending team at the TDL (or sooner) for an expiring contract and a pick.

NO #1, later FRP, KP-R-Kennard
AD, Hardy

I think the picks are fantasy land, but agree with the rest.  I'm thinking it might be D'lo instead.

[Dirknows]

I think the picks are fantasy land, but agree with the rest.  I'm thinking it might be D'lo instead.

Feels like they’re haggling over the picks. If I’m the Mavs, I hold out as long as possible for the NOP pick. The Hawks need AD sooner than later with the wide open state of the Eastern Conference.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Hang on Dumont, show us who is the boss. Take those picks.

[F Gump]

I think the picks are fantasy land, but agree with the rest.  I'm thinking it might be D'lo instead.

You think ATL will simply be dictating terms, don't you? All of your views seem based on whatever makes ATL benefit the most. I just don't see a deal happening like that.

I think the Mavs would have to be somewhat wowed to persuade them to move AD before the summer, if at all, and I really doubt ATL offering a pile of rando junk with almost no value for DAL would do it.

[KillerLeft]

Quote from Hollinger:

"I should point out one key piece of flexibility Atlanta lost in this trade, however: It severely constrains the Hawks’ options for any in-season pursuit of Anthony Davis. The Dallas Mavericks big man makes $54 million, and the players Atlanta acquired from Washington cannot be re-aggregated in any future trade this season. That means that stacking the salaries of McCollum and Kispert won’t work as a salary match. Instead, any potential Davis deal would pretty much have to send Porziņģis, Risacher and the expiring deal of Luke Kennard to the Mavs to meet league requirements."

So I think we know who would be coming here, unless the trade gets expanded.

Right, and that has been the rumored salary package, seemingly from a number of sources, for quite some time. I think that's the deal, frankly. What's left to negotiate seems to be about draft capital and not much else, as far as I can tell.

[Dirknows]

You think ATL will simply be dictating terms, don't you? All of your views seem based on whatever makes ATL benefit the most. I just don't see a deal happening like that.

I think the Mavs would have to be somewhat wowed to persuade them to move AD before the summer, if at all, and I really doubt ATL offering a pile of rando junk with almost no value for DAL would do it.

Another thing to consider, the Hawks are not a destination players want to go. They’re not signing any big free agents, and no one is going to go out of their way to request a trade there. Granted AD and Rich are focused on who’s going to give them an extension, but a player like AD even being open to going to Atlanta has never happened to them.

[Winter]

You think ATL will simply be dictating terms, don't you? All of your views seem based on whatever makes ATL benefit the most. I just don't see a deal happening like that.

I think the Mavs would have to be somewhat wowed to persuade them to move AD before the summer, if at all, and I really doubt ATL offering a pile of rando junk with almost no value for DAL would do it.

I do agree that Atlanta has to give back something of quality. This is Anthony Davis. A bunch of expiring junk and last year's underacheiving #1 isn't going to be enough.

It's all in the picks.

[KillerLeft]

I do agree that Atlanta has to give back something of quality. This is Anthony Davis. A bunch of expiring junk and last year's underacheiving #1 isn't going to be enough.

It's all in the picks.

Totally agree. 

I'm not sure it's realistic to expect THAT pick, but I believe they'll get 1-2 good ones out of this, and I LOVE that they're demanding that pick right now, especially in the light of this Trae Young trade. ATL is probably facing more than a little backlash locally for salary dumping their beloved star, so I bet they're super keen right about now to have the other, more positive shoe to drop.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Come on, trade Davis without receive picks is a pipe dream for Atlanta or even other teams...

[SkenfromLMF]

IF Atlanta does NOT want McCullom and would prefer Klay, there is a path that can accomplish this as a separate transaction from Atlanta's perspective and likely result in TE's coming back to Dallas.

Klay and Martin get Dallas within 5 million of McCullom which means a Hardy, Powell, Exum, or DAR addition results in a net wash, with the possibility of adding in the phantom salary of Djurisic to Dallas (not using Exum).

From that point it becomes difficult to navigate the AD trade as a separate deal without Kispert and Kennard aggregating KP's salary, then adding 2 of the 3 remaining of Hardy, Powell, Exum, or DAR.

From Dallas' perspective this is one major trade with AD returning the bulk of the incoming salary and other pieces (primarily Klay) yielding TE's.

[Chicagojk]

Man, I was reading some Hawks forums and I had no idea Dyson Daniels was shooting so poor this year from three.   He has the same number of PPG as his three point percentage.  Typically that could be an awesome number.   Unfortunately he is scoring 11 points per game.

[mvossman]

You think ATL will simply be dictating terms, don't you? All of your views seem based on whatever makes ATL benefit the most. I just don't see a deal happening like that.

I think the Mavs would have to be somewhat wowed to persuade them to move AD before the summer, if at all, and I really doubt ATL offering a pile of rando junk with almost no value for DAL would do it.

I think Mavs need to be realistic about what his market will be in the summer.  How does Atlanta do a trade in the summer when all of their contracts expire?  How does the summer help any of the other teams with reported interest improve their packages?  How do Mavs get any salary relief in the summer?

In the past when any player comes up that has availability issues you show zero interest.  You have also talked about how punishing the new CBA is and teams can't afford these massive contracts anymore.  I'm really curious if Atlanta was your team what you would be arguing they should do?  My guess is you would argue they should hard pass entirely, especially considering it will likely include a sizable extension.

Over 40 mil in cap relief, Risacher plus Atlanta 26 is not a pile of rando junk.  Its worth more than what the Mavs will be accumulating for the next 3 years (two late round firsts).  You obviously value Risacher much less than the Mavs do.  So replace him with Kispert and another quality first.  There is very little reason to believe they are getting a better package than that in the summer.

[Mavs2021]

Kispert is 26.

[Knutsen]

In what world does Desmond Bane get you 4 first round picks and Anthony Davis zero?

The decision the Hawks have to make is do they want to compete in the next two to three seasons or rebuild with the top talent they can draft?

[omahen]

In what world does Desmond Bane get you 4 first round picks and Anthony Davis zero?

The decision the Hawks have to make is do they want to compete in the next two to three seasons or rebuild with the top talent they can draft?

Who is saying anything about zero FRP? The big discussion is around the NO 2026 pick

Also, Bane trade didn't include a #1 pick from last year draft and did include a horrible KCP contract

[Dirknows]

Who is saying anything about zero FRP? The big discussion is around the NO 2026 pick

Also, Bane trade didn't include a #1 pick from last year draft and did include a horrible KCP contract

I don’t like the “Risacher #1 pick” narrative. The Hawks wanted to draft Sarr #1 but he refused to workout for them. Also, not all #1 picks are created equal. Flagg is miles ahead of Risacher even though he was just drafted this year. Risacher hasn’t played like a #1 pick so if anything him being picked that high just means a higher salary.