Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Stein edited his post

— and it remains to be seen whether the Hawks would also have to send the Wizards draft capital as a measure to convince them to absorb Young's contract or if Washington would be making a direct play for Young —

[windjc]

No one has a clue what is happening. AD probably won't be traded until the summer, if at all. We will see how AD performs with Kyrie on the court, which will probably be MUCH better than he has so far.

Meanwhile, Mavsboard.com will continue to have zero patience and speculate ad nauseam.

[Dirknows]

So how are the Mavs getting looped in this trade? If the Hawks have to send draft capital out with Trae, seems less likely they’d want to include any to get AD.

[windjc]

Makes total sense with the exact same argument I made for the Mavs. 

People just have a hard time accepting that the Mavs are now a super-charged version of the Wizards, after being one of the legit title favourites just 12 months ago. 

Mavs need an additional PG that can give this offense some structure. Kyrie has not played more than 60 regular season games once in the last nine years. 

He´s  going to be 34 years old next year and coming off an ACL injury. So what kind of expectations are people having here? The Finals run might have been his last hurrah or maybe the 2025 title could have been.

 If you want this team to compete next year, they´ll need to acquire a high end guard. As we have seen with DAR, those don´t grow on exception trees.

The Luka trade made an infinite amount of angry chicken littles. 

Fat Luka was not winning a Championship last year. He was exhausted and worn down from the year before, when he caught lightening in a bottle.

[Winter]

So how are the Mavs getting looped in this trade? If the Hawks have to send draft capital out with Trae, seems less likely they’d want to include any to get AD.

It's possible Mavs don't get looped into it at all. There may be no reason to. Trae just needs to be moved prior to AD if a deal with Atlanta is to happen.

[windjc]

So how are the Mavs getting looped in this trade? If the Hawks have to send draft capital out with Trae, seems less likely they’d want to include any to get AD.

Exactly. People are tying their brain into knots to try to invent a trade to talk about. Most likely there is no trade. 

And if there is a trade, it'll come out of left field from somewhere no one expected or speculated about. 

But Occam's Razor points to no trade until summer if at all.

[mvossman]

So how are the Mavs getting looped in this trade? If the Hawks have to send draft capital out with Trae, seems less likely they’d want to include any to get AD.

I doubt it would require significant trade capital to dump Trae.  I also don't think they do something like this without making use of their expiring contracts.  All the rumors say this was necessary for the AD trade.  It should not impact AD cost.  It's not Mavs problem that they need to dump Trae and I don't think there is an argument that Mavs should be taking on any of that burden.

[Chicagojk]

Ha… Hawks Reddit taking this well…


Us Traethists fought the good fight, but Atlanta and the Traetors turned their back on the Ice King. Ill always be a Hawks fan first because this is my city but dammit im rooting for wherever Trae lands as my second team.

[cow]

Durant got 2 for 90 and Butler got 2 for 110.  That is probably his market.  You still want to hold onto AD?

[Chicagojk]

Split reaction. Watching Hawks play the Raptors. Risacher looks pretty spare. I know he is better than he looks but man he is in a funk. Very little good stufff so far.

On the other hand KP looks good. I know he has a 30 million expiring and injury/health concerns but I could see him interesting some teams.

Also Murray Boyle on the Raptors is playing like a young Draymond.

[Dirknows]

Smh Hawks fans think they're going to get draft compensation back from trading Trae.

[DanSchwartzgan]

It's possible Mavs don't get looped into it at all. There may be no reason to. Trae just needs to be moved prior to AD if a deal with Atlanta is to happen.

Aggregation would be one real reason to turn this (Trae to Wiz) into something larger.  If the big incoming salary to Dallas is going to be KP, then Dallas doesn't need to be involved.  But, if there is some chance Dallas would rather have CJ or Atlanta would rather keep KP, then they would want to loop Dallas in now.  

Stein says (and I agree) that Atlanta will have to pay something to turn Trae into expiring KP.  So, the one impact on a future AD to Atlanta deal is the Hawks will have given up some draft compensation to move Trae.  That's their problem, not Dallas's.  But, the chamber has one less bullet in it.

I wonder if there is a world where Bub Carrington could be brought into a bigger deal.  He's pretty awful right now (except his 3%), but there is a reason he was drafted 14th as a high IQ pass first PG with decent size.

[loki]

I doubt it's necessary for Atlanta to add draft capital in a Trae to Washington deal. McCollum+Kispert seems pretty reasonable. Here's my attempt at expanding it to include AD. Maybe Washington does deserve a 2nd for eating Kennard's deal? I left Risacher out in order to help negotiate a better pick (I'd put top 3 protection on the NOP pick - converts to an unprotected 2030 Atl 1st if it doesn't convey). 

[DanSchwartzgan]

I have to think that talks with ATL are very different OR the Mavs are merely using ATL as a means to prime the pump. And fwiw I am somewhat leery of what we are being fed -- it is WAYYYYY too public. That seems off.

I've noticed the same thing about things being TOO public.  I saw a piece from Brett Siegel that the Atlanta GM was pissed at Dallas because too much of this was making its way to reporters.  Note that it is mostly Dallas guys (Stein, McMahon...even Afseth).  Shams had some stuff early on which I think was the agent.  It seems to be that Cuban is up to some kind of strategery.  Hope it works.

[vfromlmf]

All I know is if ATL can get off Trae there are a million ways to get AD to ATL.

You’d think (classically) AD should net expirings, a young player, and a pick (at least)

McCollum (expiring) - Risacher (young player) + pick …. sure fits the bill. You’d need to add a spare from the Wiz and maybe a spare from Dallas to make it work but there are lots of options

[DanSchwartzgan]

All I know is if ATL can get off Trae there are a million ways to get AD to ATL.

You’d think (classically) AD should net expirings, a young player, and a pick (at least)

McCollum (expiring) - Risacher (young player) + pick …. sure fits the bill. You’d need to add a spare from the Wiz and maybe a spare from Dallas to make it work but there are lots of options

I've seen people knee jerk and put Kispert in the deal, but that much salary isn't necessary.  You can get there with something like Bub and expiring Anthony Gill.  The one I like is:

CJ, Risacher and Bub Carrington to Dallas for Davis, D'Lo, Powell and Exum

Young, Powell and Exum to Washington for CJ and Carrington 

Davis, D'Lo and Gill to Atlanta for Young and Risacher

People can argue about who gets what picks.  Picks would obviously be owed to Dallas, but I do think some of the pick equity that was coming to Dallas has to go to Washington for Carrington.  Dallas ends up with Bub, Max, Risacher, Flagg and Lively as its young core, but at this point still has good vets in Kyrie, Klay, Naji, PJ and Gafford to mix and match as you try to develop the kids and the incoming picks

[omahen]

Some additional information. It looks like the Young stuff is not so much about Hawks being desperate to move him (he only has 1 year left and even that is a player option) as is about Young looking for another opportunity where he could get a bigger extension. Hawks are not willing to pay him max (or close to it) as they are pivoting to build around Johnson as their main guy. Trae wants to maximize his opportunity to increase his value in his contract year to get as high extension as possible either this or next summer.

There are also some new reports that Washington is prepared to pay expiring and a pick for him.

Based on that I think it is not reasonable to expect that Atlanta will be adding draft assets just to dump him. He has his flaws, but his trade value is not that low.

[F Gump]

You’d think (classically) AD should net expirings, a young player, and a pick (at least)

McCollum (expiring) - Risacher (young player) + pick …. sure fits the bill. You’d need to add a spare from the Wiz and maybe a spare from Dallas to make it work but there are lots of options

I've seen people knee jerk and put Kispert in the deal, but that much salary isn't necessary.  You can get there with something like Bub and expiring Anthony Gill.  The one I like is:

CJ, Risacher and Bub Carrington to Dallas for Davis, D'Lo, Powell and Exum

Young, Powell and Exum to Washington for CJ and Carrington 

Davis, D'Lo and Gill to Atlanta for Young and Risacher

Those are certainly salary matches that would not force Trae's future salary on the Mavs, which helps. But I think both fall way short on value for AD, and the only meaningful value would be the pick(s). If strong enough, yeah, but otherwise it looks to me like a bunch of journeymen in the making.

I don't have to give up AD to get that kind of player. 

I think about the good GMs around the NBA and what one of THEM would get for AD. When I do, I don't think this is remotely close. To me we have lost sight of what AD offers a team -- he's a 2-way big who plays superior defense, at an all-star level, and is a difference-maker on the court -- and what an expert can sell to a buyer.. 

Finding that Expert GM, that's where the Mavs need to be shopping right now, frankly. Get the world's BEST NEGOTIATOR lined up, to solve this for you. (That means NOT Cuban, obviously.) Someone who understands NBA economics, and player values, and the way other GMs operate, and who can win rather than weakly surrender talent in a panic.

So unless the picks are strong enough to make a HUGE difference, I would rather keep AD because I don't see this helping the Mavs at all. 

I don't see a problem if this means they have to wait. It gives them time to try out Kyrie-AD-Flagg, and to let the other teams build interest. This is far from the last offer that would be made for him. More teams will emerge, if these fall away. Or these may decide they need him more urgently than they thought. But  get an EXPERT negotiator, whatever that takes, and then work from there.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Some additional information. It looks like the Young stuff is not so much about Hawks being desperate to move him (he only has 1 year left and even that is a player option) as is about Young looking for another opportunity where he could get a bigger extension. Hawks are not willing to pay him max (or close to it) as they are pivoting to build around Johnson as their main guy. Trae wants to maximize his opportunity to increase his value in his contract year to get as high extension as possible either this or next summer.

There are also some new reports that Washington is prepared to pay expiring and a pick for him.

Based on that I think it is not reasonable to expect that Atlanta will be adding draft assets just to dump him. He has his flaws, but his trade value is not that low.

So we can flip Trae to Washington. Great.

The domino is almost done... All the Pieces are setted.

Risacher+Trae+ 1FRP...

[F Gump]

Some additional information. It looks like the Young stuff is not so much about Hawks being desperate to move him (he only has 1 year left and even that is a player option) as is about Young looking for another opportunity where he could get a bigger extension. Hawks are not willing to pay him max (or close to it) as they are pivoting to build around Johnson as their main guy. Trae wants to maximize his opportunity to increase his value in his contract year to get as high extension as possible either this or next summer.

There are also some new reports that Washington is prepared to pay expiring and a pick for him.

Based on that I think it is not reasonable to expect that Atlanta will be adding draft assets just to dump him. He has his flaws, but his trade value is not that low.

I think you're right in pointing out this is more layered than ATL being desperate to dump Trae. 

Yet I have to think they do want to deal him somehow, and don't want to have to pay him $50M next season. Desperate? No. But I think "eager" might be a good word. Very eager, even. His future is not in ATL. Probably not even his present.

A second layer is WAS. The Wiz are willing to talk extension, but at what terms? I don't assume max, not at all. Although I suspect that's what Trae wants to hear. So Trae himself, and "what would Trae agree to," is a third layer. In fact, Trae and his team have been brought into the mix, probably to answer this very question so that WAS can get a better idea of what they would be getting in trade.

Objectively, I don't think Trae is anywhere close to a 50M-and-up player. But there is a number where he would be good value (and it could be locked in by an extend-and-trade deal). I think that number can impact a deal to WAS or elsewhere, and alter what ATL gets or what they might have to pay to make a deal happen. Because I think they are eager to get out from under paying him. 

Maybe all of this is easily resolved, but I think it's more likely to be a set of tough negotiations that could go any number of ways (including "nowhere").