MAVS NEWS:

[windjc]

I wonder if some of his issues with his three point shooting is the thumb injury.

Probably.

You can see he is slightly off on his long range form. He was nearly as precise as Kon at Duke and a couple feet is no big deal. Klay and Dirk can fix him during the offseason. I think he will be at 38%+ next year.

[KillerLeft]

Bingo. You've identified the right trade off, it's just that I don't know that I feel confident that mission will be accomplished. 

In fact, I believe I've reached a point where I think it's MORE likely that "a couple of playoff series wins" might be bested on the current course than "starting the contention window a year or two earlier" will actually happen via the other route. That's my thinking at the moment, anyway. I'd at least like to see all three of the guys together for 20 games before I DECIDE they can't contend next season.

Either way, there isn't a "right" way to do this until around 2030, sadly. That's how I feel, anyway, based on currently available information.

I guess the last thing I'd add is this:

If there's not a "right" way to go, I really don't see a "wrong" way, either, at least not in the sense of "ruining" any chances that most of us don't think exist. I don't think it's possible, really, to turn this roster into one of equal talent but young enough to announce "this is the Flagg contention window." I don't think ANY of the paths available are likely to speed up the time between now and a less bare cupboard. So, I'm not sure I see a downside to playing this out. Either way, we're just killing time until they have some bullets to fire...2029, 2030...2031? Later, even? 

For me, this conclusion is liberating, because the conversation then becomes: what reasonable action can they take now to make this team work? If you're worried about trading those far distant picks and lengthening this purgatory, well then I agree with that fear, and I'm opposed to anything like that, especially if it's not for assets that could be here as long as Flagg. Those assets should DEFINITELY not be used for pieces that fit on the Davis/Kyrie timeline, and I doubt you'll find much opposition to that thinking, if any at all. 

But, I don't think PJW, Marshall, Gafford...hell, even Christie are realistically going to be here that long, either. They're all pretty old, relative to Flagg. If you're not getting value offers for Kyrie/AD, why not shuffle those role players (objectively valuable to the right teams) to make the roster fit around the trio of hall of fame talents you have now? What's the difference, if it's all a waiting game anyway? Just make the team make sense and we might be surprised how well it goes, tbh.

[mvossman]

I guess the last thing I'd add is this:

If there's not a "right" way to go, I really don't see a "wrong" way, either, at least not in the sense of "ruining" any chances that most of us don't think exist. I don't think it's possible, really, to turn this roster into one of equal talent but young enough to announce "this is the Flagg contention window." I don't think ANY of the paths available are likely to speed up the time between now and a less bare cupboard. So, I'm not sure I see a downside to playing this out. Either way, we're just killing time until they have some bullets to fire...2029, 2030...2031? Later, even? 

For me, this conclusion is liberating, because the conversation then becomes: what reasonable action can they take now to make this team work? If you're worried about trading those far distant picks and lengthening this purgatory, well then I agree with that fear, and I'm opposed to anything like that, especially if it's not for assets that could be here as long as Flagg. Those assets should DEFINITELY not be used for pieces that fit on the Davis/Kyrie timeline, and I doubt you'll find much opposition to that thinking, if any at all. 

But, I don't think PJW, Marshall, Gafford...hell, even Christie are realistically going to be here that long, either. They're all pretty old, relative to Flagg. If you're not getting value offers for Kyrie/AD, why not shuffle those role players (objectively valuable to the right teams) to make the roster fit around the trio of hall of fame talents you have now? What's the difference, if it's all a waiting game anyway? Just make the team make sense and we might be surprised how well it goes, tbh.

Yeah this is definitely where we differ. I think there are multiple paths to speeding up the reset.  Where the Mavs currently sit in the standings they have a 17% chance of landing a top 4 pick.  That event would very likely significantly impact the contention timeline.  Trading AD very likely lowers their win total and improves their lottery odds.  

A lot of the AD trades have salary relief and two firsts coming back.  Don't those firsts restock the bullets sooner than waiting?  I mean those future Mavs picks are not going to be worth that much as Flagg will probably be a superstar by then.

But you are right that a big part of my mindset is that this FO could delay the contention window trying to win with AD.  Whether its an albatross extension or trading away those future assets, a lot of damage could be done that simply won't happen if they trade away AD.

[KillerLeft]

But if you can get a reasonable haul for him (like one of the Ringer deals) I think they should pull the trigger.

I just reviewed the Ringer deals. Tough to know what's even possible, whether they're legit guess at all, or what...

...but, for a baseline of understanding, I kind of like the Charlotte deal. Three firsts, including the Mavs' own '27, and two distressed but talented assets who might actually fit well with Flagg on the court pretty quickly? At a glance, that's my favorite among their hypotheticals, and I'd give it ample consideration were it a real offer.

[KillerLeft]

But you are right that a big part of my mindset is that this FO could delay the contention window trying to win with AD.  Whether its an albatross extension or trading away those future assets, a lot of damage could be done that simply won't happen if they trade away AD.

To be clear, I am not in favor of the nightmare that worries you above. I just don't think they'll be that stupid. I don't feel the need to hope they do something short-sighted just to take the "temptation" of taking action that stupid away from them, because I doubt that temptation really exists. 

I don't think ANY team will give Davis a max extension, for example, so while I'm sure his agents will angle for it, I don't think that will actually play a part in what's to come of all of this. Just one example. I'm not worried about that coming from Dallas in the least, nor do I worry that he'll cause problems trying to get it (past a certain point). His team will discover there's no path to that outcome out there, and if there is...then fine, all parties involved will take that path. Problem solved. I'm confident he won't get that extension in Dallas, and that's because the guy most likely to be invested in making his time in Dallas work is now gone. I think the new team (whomever is running it) is likely to view the situation with way more objectivity than you seem to fear.

[mvossman]

To be clear, I am not in favor of the nightmare that worries you above. I just don't think they'll be that stupid. I don't feel the need to hope they do something short-sighted just to take the "temptation" of taking action that stupid away from them, because I doubt that temptation really exists. 

I don't think ANY team will give Davis a max extension, for example, so while I'm sure his agents will angle for it, I don't think that will actually play a part in what's to come of all of this. Just one example. I'm not worried about that coming from Dallas in the least, nor do I worry that he'll cause problems trying to get it (past a certain point). His team will discover there's no path to that outcome out there, and if there is...then fine, all parties involved will take that path. Problem solved. I'm confident he won't get that extension in Dallas, and that's because the guy most likely to be invested in making his time in Dallas work is now gone. I think the new team (whomever is running it) is likely to view the situation with way more objectivity than you seem to fear.

Max extension no, but extension similar to Kyrie contract?  Its not out of the question.  I'm not sure trading for the final piece if they think they are close is out of the question either.  To be clear, its not about temptation.  I'm not arguing for what the FO should be doing.  As a fan I simply fear what they might do, and trading AD takes some of the worst outcomes off the table.

[KillerLeft]

Max extension no, but extension similar to Kyrie contract?  Its not out of the question.  I'm not sure trading for the final piece if they think they are close is out of the question either.  To be clear, its not about temptation.  I'm not arguing for what the FO should be doing.  As a fan I simply fear what they might do, and trading AD takes some of the worst outcomes off the table.

I doubt something even close to the Kyrie extension is on the table for Davis here, frankly, nor would it be for Kyrie now, if that situation was up in the air. They won't do anything to jeopardize the Flagg window. All that matters is how best to mitigate the next few years, and my point is that giving Davis and/or Kyrie away might not actually be the best way to do that. 

If, as you fear, the team is to move forward with a front office that might do something like what you lay out above, this is all pointless, anyway. I don't think even Cuban would do that if he were the final decision maker, and I don't think he will be ever again. I honestly think getting out of that mode of thinking is among the bigger reasons Harrison was let go so quickly. As Rachel Nichols said, we had reached a point where he could no longer think or act objectively, because it would've meant admitting he was wrong. Basically, no matter what path is chosen from here, firing him signaled that the team was ready to think in terms of Flagg's career, not Davis's. That's a little oversimplified, of course, but I think it's basically true. 

But, it's pretty knee jerk and short sighted not to acknowledge the positives of what could be accomplished with Davis here, whether that's getting the best deal possible or taking advantage of what he offers on the court. I think it's pretty ridiculous to think he MUST be traded to avoid giving him an extension we don't like. I think there's a wide range of outcomes from here. None of them can undo the Luka trade, but many of them can work, to varying degrees. I do think there's a chance the team can be good soon, and I kind of think they're close to being good now.

Again, that Ringer Charlotte deal is intriguing, but who knows what's really out there? They're dumb if they're not looking, agreed, but I'm just saying they're dumb if they're looking with the intent to trade him no matter what they're offered. This is not the Porzingis situation for me at all. Davis and Flagg are really great together on the court. What if Kyrie/Flagg are ALSO great together? If so, that would represent more talent than Dirk ever had, for example.

[windjc]

Is Cuban not a decision maker anymore? From your lips to God's ears. He is still an albatross around this franchise. Does anyone trust Finley to make the right moves? He was the one that took the beer out of Luka's hands for goodness sakes. Seems a bit puritanical for my tastes. Can we just pray for a decent GM and one that will completely box Cuban out of the picture?

[KillerLeft]

Is Cuban not a decision maker anymore? From your lips to God's ears. He is still an albatross around this franchise. Does anyone trust Finley to make the right moves? He was the one that took the beer out of Luka's hands for goodness sakes. Seems a bit puritanical for my tastes. Can we just pray for a decent GM and one that will completely box Cuban out of the picture?

From what I've been able to glean from various reporting, the current scene is that Dumont is listening to a group of people that includes Finley, Ricardi and Cuban. That's a little scary, but all the reporting I've seen makes a point of the idea that Cuban's voice is only one of those being considered. And frankly, I think Cuban was the one who finally convinced Dumont to take action in removing Harrison, so there is a good side to that part. 

The reporting has also indicated that Cuban will never again be "the decider." The new GM will NOT report to him, and while his voice might/might not be phased out again as it was under Harrison, the idea is that the new GM, whenever they're hired, will be in charge, answering to Dumont directly. It will be up to that GM how wide of a circle he wants to include to advise him. This is the right approach, and was employed with the wrong GM in Harrison, sadly. I'm actually encouraged by the thought that IF the right GM is chosen, the franchise will be in better hands than it ever has been before, because I think Dumont has the right approach in mind. Ironically, I think he might need Cuban's help choosing the right GM, but all in all I think there's great potential to get this right. I actually think the new guy should take advantage of resources like Cuban, frankly. I don't ever again want Cuban to be in charge, obviously, but he damn sure would've prevented that Luka trade, just as an example.

Having said all that, I don't think I can get excited about Finley or Ricardi, so I don't like this "wait and see" approach, because I don't view it as waiting for a bigger list of candidates to be considered (though that's technically a benefit of waiting). I actually see it as "let's see how Finley and/or Ricardi do with an on the job audition, because one of them would be a cheap, easy solution to this problem. I hope one of them is good at this." That's not the way to go, imho.

[mvossman]

I doubt something even close to the Kyrie extension is on the table for Davis here, frankly, nor would it be for Kyrie now, if that situation was up in the air. They won't do anything to jeopardize the Flagg window. All that matters is how best to mitigate the next few years, and my point is that giving Davis and/or Kyrie away might not actually be the best way to do that. 

If, as you fear, the team is to move forward with a front office that might do something like what you lay out above, this is all pointless, anyway. I don't think even Cuban would do that if he were the final decision maker, and I don't think he will be ever again. I honestly think getting out of that mode of thinking is among the bigger reasons Harrison was let go so quickly. As Rachel Nichols said, we had reached a point where he could no longer think or act objectively, because it would've meant admitting he was wrong. Basically, no matter what path is chosen from here, firing him signaled that the team was ready to think in terms of Flagg's career, not Davis's. That's a little oversimplified, of course, but I think it's basically true. 

But, it's pretty knee jerk and short sighted not to acknowledge the positives of what could be accomplished with Davis here, whether that's getting the best deal possible or taking advantage of what he offers on the court. I think it's pretty ridiculous to think he MUST be traded to avoid giving him an extension we don't like. I think there's a wide range of outcomes from here. None of them can undo the Luka trade, but many of them can work, to varying degrees. I do think there's a chance the team can be good soon, and I kind of think they're close to being good now.

Again, that Ringer Charlotte deal is intriguing, but who knows what's really out there? They're dumb if they're not looking, agreed, but I'm just saying they're dumb if they're looking with the intent to trade him no matter what they're offered. This is not the Porzingis situation for me at all. Davis and Flagg are really great together on the court. What if Kyrie/Flagg are ALSO great together? If so, that would represent more talent than Dirk ever had, for example.

I mean they signed Kyrie on that contract after a significant knee injury at the same age that AD will be when his extension is coming up, and AD is supposed to be the better player when both are healthy.  I could easily see an organization convince themselves that the Flagg timeline starts now.

I don't think I have ignored what AD could bring to the table.  I think they would be a good team and one that could win a playoff series or two next season if they have the right injury luck.  

I have definitely never argued that they should trade him no matter what.  I have always argued the return has to be enough to warrant that trade.  As a fan, I simply hope that they manage to trade him for a reasonable return at the TDL.  Not only because I think its the best long term solution and that it takes some concerning scenarios off the table, but also because it will signal a clear path moving forward.

[KillerLeft]

I mean they signed Kyrie on that contract after a significant knee injury at the same age that AD will be when his extension is coming up, and AD is supposed to be the better player when both are healthy.  I could easily see an organization convince themselves that the Flagg timeline starts now.

Because of Luka. Because of his fit with Luka, and because the time for THAT version of the team WAS now (as in then).

Plus, who's "they?" Harrison, and we don't even know who "they" are at this point.

I personally don't see the connections you do in the circumstances.

[windjc]

From what I've been able to glean from various reporting, the current scene is that Dumont is listening to a group of people that includes Finley, Ricardi and Cuban. That's a little scary, but all the reporting I've seen makes a point of the idea that Cuban's voice is only one of those being considered. And frankly, I think Cuban was the one who finally convinced Dumont to take action in removing Harrison, so there is a good side to that part. 

The reporting has also indicated that Cuban will never again be "the decider." The new GM will NOT report to him, and while his voice might/might not be phased out again as it was under Harrison, the idea is that the new GM, whenever they're hired, will be in charge, answering to Dumont directly. It will be up to that GM how wide of a circle he wants to include to advise him. This is the right approach, and was employed with the wrong GM in Harrison, sadly. I'm actually encouraged by the thought that IF the right GM is chosen, the franchise will be in better hands than it ever has been before, because I think Dumont has the right approach in mind. Ironically, I think he might need Cuban's help choosing the right GM, but all in all I think there's great potential to get this right. I actually think the new guy should take advantage of resources like Cuban, frankly. I don't ever again want Cuban to be in charge, obviously, but he damn sure would've prevented that Luka trade, just as an example.

Having said all that, I don't think I can get excited about Finley or Ricardi, so I don't like this "wait and see" approach, because I don't view it as waiting for a bigger list of candidates to be considered (though that's technically a benefit of waiting). I actually see it as "let's see how Finley and/or Ricardi do with an on the job audition, because one of them would be a cheap, easy solution to this problem. I hope one of them is good at this." That's not the way to go, imho.

Why would you want Cuban to have any say? The guy is a moron. A snake oil salesman. He made his fortune by grifting Yahoo into believing broadcast.com had any value add to the tune of 2 billion dollars that Yahoo then wrote off a few years later as a total loss. His shark tank businesses have been almost all busts. He hasn’t had a viable successful business in 20 years. He is always talking like he is cutting edge and he has always been a pretender, a grifter and a charlatan. 

Once upon a time at least he was a fan of the Mavs. But he has always been about not losing money and blowing up his own image as far as he can see. He is Jerry Jones lite.

[Winter]

As a fan, I simply hope that they manage to trade him for a reasonable return at the TDL. 

Most of this thread is a discussion of the above. I have found myself largely in agreement with mvmoss on which side I fall on, but the debate on what constitues a "reasonable return" is going to be all over the map I think.

My personal feeling is that draft capital is critical, but if we don't acquire anything at the TDL there are always other solutions this summer. It's just hard to imagine a new GM eager to go forward into this draft desert that is almost on us. So I expect that to be almost as much a priority as players.

[windjc]

Most of this thread is a discussion of the above. I have found myself largely in agreement with mvmoss on which side I fall on, but the debate on what constitues a "reasonable return" is going to be all over the map I think.

My personal feeling is that draft capital is critical, but if we don't acquire anything at the TDL there are always other solutions this summer. It's just hard to imagine a new GM eager to go forward into this draft desert that is almost on us. So I expect that to be almost as much a priority as players.

Why don’t we see the team once Kyrie return? If we make it to the conference finals this year I think this board will be singing a different tune. Right now I don’t know who can beat us except for the Thunder and Kyrie isn’t even on the court yet. And Lively isn’t even playing.

[KillerLeft]

Why would you want Cuban to have any say? The guy is a moron. A snake oil salesman. He made his fortune by grifting Yahoo into believing broadcast.com had any value add to the tune of 2 billion dollars that Yahoo then wrote off a few years later as a total loss. His shark tank businesses have been almost all busts. He hasn’t had a viable successful business in 20 years. He is always talking like he is cutting edge and he has always been a pretender, a grifter and a charlatan. 

Once upon a time at least he was a fan of the Mavs. But he has always been about not losing money and blowing up his own image as far as he can see. He is Jerry Jones lite.

I don't think this is a reasonable takeaway or question, based on the writing of mine you quoted. It's pretty much the opposite of the conclusion supported, unless you hate Cuban so much that you think the Luka trade was preferable to him being involved at any level and wish Harrison was still employed by the team. I mean that only slightly tongue in cheek, because I actually do think the team would be in better shape today had Cuban been consulted a little, but in no way do I want him in charge of anything having to do with the Mavs, and said so in the exact post you quoted. It's not something I'm worried about, frankly, because there's reporting out there that overtly states he will not be.

[mvossman]

Why don’t we see the team once Kyrie return? If we make it to the conference finals this year I think this board will be singing a different tune. Right now I don’t know who can beat us except for the Thunder and Kyrie isn’t even on the court yet. And Lively isn’t even playing.

I think this is a wildly optimistic assessment of where this team is at.

[mvossman]

Because of Luka. Because of his fit with Luka, and because the time for THAT version of the team WAS now (as in then).

Plus, who's "they?" Harrison, and we don't even know who "they" are at this point.

I personally don't see the connections you do in the circumstances.

I mean there has been a ton of talk regarding AD great fit with Flagg.  If AD doesn't get moved and the AD/Kyrie/Flagg group look as good as you hope, seems like it would be a similar type signing.

They right now seems to be Finely and Ricardi, guys that were here for the Luka trade and the Kyrie extension.  Right now it looks like they will be running the show until at least the offseason, and I would not be surprised if one of them (probably Ricardi) gets made permanent at that point.

[windjc]

I think this is a wildly optimistic assessment of where this team is at.

Maybe. But less optimistic than if I’d say we’d make the finals this time 2 years ago.

[KillerLeft]

I mean there has been a ton of talk regarding AD great fit with Flagg.  If AD doesn't get moved and the AD/Kyrie/Flagg group look as good as you hope, seems like it would be a similar type signing.

They right now seems to be Finely and Ricardi, guys that were here for the Luka trade and the Kyrie extension.  Right now it looks like they will be running the show until at least the offseason, and I would not be surprised if one of them (probably Ricardi) gets made permanent at that point.

Sure, but it's a huge leap to think that fit or optimism for success will possess "them" to build on the trio for more than a little while. Those guys are old! 

I'm just saying this: we haven't seen the trio together yet. The trio is good, and might be be better next season than we here can even imagine, given a little more development from Flagg. If the offers they get (which we don't know about yet) don't get them somewhere worth going, what's the downside in just letting things play out? These are GREAT players we're talking about. Flagg being this good this soon makes me wonder what's possible, that's all. I don't think deciding not to trade AD or Kyrie at the deadline or even this summer automatically means you have to tie yourself to them for the next 5-7 years. That thinking doesn't track for me. You could say the offers will only decline, but if they're already not good enough, what's the difference? 

I think Winter said it a second ago: the question that matters is "What's good enough?" All I'm saying is that the question should be applied in both directions, including a "don't blow it up" direction, because I'm suddenly seeing room for that approach to be "good enough."

[Winter]

Regarding the post above...

There is a future scenario I would like to see, but it does not appear possible. That scenario would be the players we all had at the beginning of the season... with AD committed to the center position plus Kyrie. What we don't know for future reference is whether Kidd and AD will settle on AD's natural position at center.

I wouldn't mind seeing this lineup with AD at the center position.

Kyrie\Bwill\Nemb
Christi\Klay
Naji\PJ
Flagg\PJ
AD\Gaff\Lively\Powell

That's a nice lineup.

But we are horribly thin at center now, and that won't happen. Our center position is AD, Cisse, and Powell. Both Gaff and AD seem terribly frail at present and my optimisim won't stretch that far. And of course, Kyrie is an unknown coming back off injury. So this lineup looks nice on paper, but it's hard to imagine as a sustainable lineup.

My only alternate hope outside of an AD trade is that enough trades can be manufactured outgoing to compensate. That is Gafford going out - with probably Martin and\or Hardy, maybe Klay and maybe Dlo. We get back in return a healthy backup center, and at least a 3-point specialist. But that sounds more like a dream than reality.