AROUND the NBA:

[omahen]

Would you consider "extremely high variance" optimistic?

No, but I also don't consider it pessimistic. I don't only see the one side, I see both sides, exactly what it is. A high variance. Of course the most likely result is somewhere in the middle, meaning Lakers are tier 2 or 3 contender (tier 1 OKC, Denver, Houston, tier 2 teams like Clippers, Minny, GSW,...) in the West. 

Expanding on 3-D player Lakers could use. They have expiring trash contracts (Kleber and Vincent) or potentially Hachimura, one FRP and Knecht available for a trade.  Below is a list of non star players that would fit the description. Is there anyone you think it could be attainable for such a package?

Atlanta: Johnson or Daniels
Boston: White
Charlotte: Miles Bridges
Dallas: PJ (although he would also have to play out of his natural position with Lakers, as he will have to with Dallas)
Denver: Gordon or perhaps Braun
Indiana: Nesmith
Memphis: GG Jackson if you are really high on him
Minnesota: McDaniels
NO: Murphy or Herb
NY: Bridges, Hart or Anunoby
OKC: Dort
Portland: Avdija, Camara
Sacramento: Murray

Most of these guys are not available at all. Out of a very few that might be available, I could only see Miles Bridges (Charlotte) as theoretically possible to get for that package.

[omahen]

Would you consider "extremely high variance" optimistic?

Yes, I agree it's pessimistic. When he says the Lakers will need very good health from all those players, that sounds pessimistic - as it should be. I think the same thing for the Mavericks really. They will need good health to compete in Western Conference.

He didn't say they are relying on perfect outcome to be competitive in the playoffs (as you wrote in the original description). He said they are clear cut contenders in the perfect outcome. This is the point that started my response.

[mvossman]

Wait, so adding Flagg and Russell - while losing only Dinwiddie drops them in the rankings?  Dang, didn't know Spencer was that highly thought of.

It was a post draft rating.  Flagg is not part of it.  Sounds about right.

[SleepingHero]

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania)
Chicago Bulls head coach Billy Donovan has signed a multiyear contract extension with the franchise, sources tell ESPN. Donovan is viewed as a leader within the Bulls organization, and will enter his sixth season in Chicago in 2025-26 with 800 NBA games coached over his career.

[Chicagojk]

Good for him for taking his condititioning seriously. It should really help him going forward. Too bad it wasn't here.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1m..._the_chat/

[Smitty]

Good for him for taking his condititioning seriously.  It should really help him going forward.  Too bad it wasn't here.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1m..._the_chat/

We get these reports every summer. I'm not saying that he's not taking it seriously, or that it won't last, just that we were on Luka weight watch every year here. 
Now we're on AD/Kyrie/Lively health watch instead.

[Chicagojk]

We get these reports every summer. I'm not saying that he's not taking it seriously, or that it won't last, just that we were on Luka weight watch every year here. 
Now we're on AD/Kyrie/Lively health watch instead.

I think this year is different.  It should be.    Strong, quick Luka was always my favorite.  I was worried that was gone.    There was much more going on with the training staff than we knew last year, but still seeing how he was moving and how he looked at the beginning of the season was the most dissapointed in him that I ever was.   Was it the injury?  Was it his preparation?  Was it distrust in the training staff?  All?  Whatever it was, he was moving like a 40 year old.  Still productive but there was no way it was something that was going to last.   The finals run was long and brutal and he deserved to take time off.   Although, conditioning should be almost a 12 month thing.   

Every possible step should have been taken before trading him.   In fact, firing Nico should come before trading Luka.    I am sure there was a lot of angst how he came to camp last year.    Still though, Nico had to know that this next step was probably coming.   Just like Dirk who found nutrition in his mid 20's.  We will see if Luka is as serious as Dirk was, but it is a nice first step.

[Smitty]

Fanduel O/U Win totals:

OKC 62.5
HOU 55.5
DEN 53.5
LAC 49.5
MIN 49.5
LAL 48.5
GSW 45.5
SAS 43.5
DAL 40.5
MEM 40.5
SAC 35.5
POR 33.5
PHX 31.5
NOP 31.5
UTAH 18.5

[Smitty]

Fanduel O/U Win totals:

OKC 62.5 / 68
HOU 55.5 / 52
DEN 53.5 / 50
LAC 49.5 / 50
MIN 49.5 / 49
LAL 48.5 / 50
GSW 45.5 / 48
SAS 43.5 / 34
DAL 40.5 / 39
MEM 40.5 / 48
SAC 35.5 / 40
POR 33.5 / 36
PHX 31.5 / 36
NOP 31.5 / 21
UTAH 18.5 / 17

Win total last season

Most of these feel right. I think I'd bump DAL up where GSW is. I'd have the Mavs at 45.5 O/U, Warriors at 43.5 O/U, and the Spurs at 40.5 O/U. So, I guess I'm saying I'd take the over on the Mavs and the under on the Warriors and Spurs.

[mvossman]

Most of these feel right. I think I'd bump DAL up where GSW is. I'd have the Mavs at 45.5 O/U, Warriors at 43.5 O/U, and the Spurs at 40.5 O/U. So, I guess I'm saying I'd take the over on the Mavs and the under on the Warriors and Spurs.

I'm probably one of the biggest Mavs pessimists on here, but I would definitely bet the over on 40.5.

[Chicagojk]

I'm probably one of the biggest Mavs pessimists on here, but I would definitely bet the over on 40.5.

It does feel low but there will be a good team in that range for different reasons.  No idea who now.

Personally, I think Golden state gets hit this year, but who knows they could be good again.  Just a feeling.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I wouldn't touch that Mavs bet.

If AD misses any time while Kyrie is already out, this is gonna turn into a tank season real quick.

[mvossman]

I wouldn't touch that Mavs bet.

If AD misses any time while Kyrie is already out, this is gonna turn into a tank season real quick.

A lot more things would need to go wrong for them to go into tank mode.  They should be able tread water with a Lively/PJ/Flagg/Klay/Dlo lineup.

[ballsrchr]

I would bet the over--if I was a betting man--which I'm not. I think the Mavs will win closer to 45 games this year.

Of course I've been wrong every year for quite awhile. There's that...

[Chicagojk]

Fanduel O/U Win totals:

OKC 62.5
HOU 55.5
DEN 53.5
LAC 49.5
MIN 49.5
LAL 48.5
GSW 45.5
SAS 43.5
DAL 40.5
MEM 40.5
SAC 35.5
POR 33.5
PHX 31.5
NOP 31.5
UTAH 18.5

How many games do you think Flagg adds?  A few?  More?  Sort of depressing to think where they would be without the lottery luck.

[mvossman]

How many games do you think Flagg adds?  A few?  More?  Sort of depressing to think where they would be without the lottery luck.

A conservative estimate based on other highly touted first overall picks is 5 wins in year one and 10 wins in year two.  For reference:

Wembanyama was 9 then 9 (only played 46 games)
Luka was 8 then 11
Lebron was 6 then 17

Those numbers are based on EPM.  BPM numbers are even higher (especially Luka).  

Yes, they would be completely screwed without the lottery luck.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Good for him for taking his condititioning seriously.  It should really help him going forward.  Too bad it wasn't here.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1m..._the_chat/

He looks great. He also made the cover of Men's Health magazine. He is really going to focus on his conditioning now, since he feels Dallas gave up on him.  I think he has his best season yet, regardless of what his team does. He's out to prove that point.



https://www.fox4news.com/sports/slimmer-...alth-cover

[Chicagojk]

Marcus Morris allegedly stole more than $250,000 from Las Vegas casinos, per @TMZ_Sports

“According to court documents we obtained, the NBA player allegedly got $115,000 from the MGM Grand Hotel and Casino via bad checks in May 2024 ... and never paid it back when the checks


******************
He has made over 100 million in his career. Something tells me he has not been good saving his money or may have a gambling problem. Not good at all.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Marcus Morris allegedly stole more than $250,000 from Las Vegas casinos, per @TMZ_Sports

“According to court documents we obtained, the NBA player allegedly got $115,000 from the MGM Grand Hotel and Casino via bad checks in May 2024 ... and never paid it back when the checks


******************
He has made over 100 million in his career.  Something tells me he has not been good saving his money or may have a gambling problem.  Not good at all.

Sounds like he and Malik Beasley have some issues handling money. I agree with you, though, as much money as they have both made, they should not be in this position. Beasley has made over 60 million in his career.

[Chicagojk]

Sounds like he and Malik Beasley have some issues handling money. I agree with you, though, as much money as they have both made, they should not be in this position. Beasley has made over 60 million in his career.

Sounds like Gilbert Arenas is also in some trouble with gambling.    This will continue to be an issue, no doubt.