MAVS NEWS:

[mvossman]

Yeah, I think it's obvious this team will be missing a key piece until Kyrie returns, but even with him out I don't think this is a lottery team, barring injury, of course.

Without Kyrie its probably a play-in team.  Any significant injury time from AD probably puts them in the lottery.  At that point they would we relying on an 18 year old rookie, a Dlo bounce back and vet mins for offensive creation.

[KillerLeft]

Without Kyrie its probably a play-in team.  Any significant injury time from AD probably puts them in the lottery.  At that point they would we relying on an 18 year old rookie, a Dlo bounce back and vet mins for offensive creation.

Man, I am way higher on this team than you are...it worries me.

[mvossman]

Man, I am way higher on this team than you are...it worries me.

I don't think its that important really.  I see no path to contention this coming season, so the focus should be on seeing what works and what doesn't and developing Flagg as much as possible. 

To be fair, I had similar thoughts two years ago when we had a lottery draft pick that I thought would take some time to develop.  Its possible Flagg goes ape shit from the start and Kyrie comes back early at full strength.  Then you probably make a TDL move and go for it.  The issue for me is they took a massive drop off in elite creation from Luka to AD, and I think its asking a lot for a rookie to bridge that gap.

[F Gump]

"The issue for me is they took a massive drop off in elite creation from Luka to AD..."

Luka as an individual is unquestionably an elite creator of offense in quantity. But how much of that was because his game is so heliocentric (ie, to what extent was it to the detriment or even prevention of anyone else doing so)?

It's hard to feather out Luka offense vs DAL as a whole last season since they played way more without him than with him (he only played 22). But in LA, Luka's personal offensive rating ppp was not any different than LA as a whole, which was middle tier (12th) in the league. I would expect the delta of Luka-in-LA vs LA to be significant and it's not.

I think it's possible the Mavs offense would have been okay after the trade, with it being spread among many (Kyrie doing more, plus AD added, plus others doing more than they had) who would each increase a bit, but we never had a chance to see, so who knows.

IMO the big drop-off is more from the loss of Kyrie as a big piece in a more diverse offense, and basically only DAR added to try to fill that hole. Having Flagg on the floor will help, perhaps a lot, but can Flagg + DAR = Kyrie in offense? If not, it could be ugly offense. (FWIW I would wager we will see not only a more diverse O but also a faster push-the-pace-every-time approach, which might make a huge diff and be very productive.)

However, even if O is ugly, all is not necessarily lost -- maybe they can make up the diff on the other end. Neither Luka nor Kyrie was exactly dominant defensively (heck, Luka often failed to even show on D, preferring to whine to refs instead, which really did piss me off a lot and felt lazy). So it should be interesting to see how it plays out as a whole. And I suspect Kyrie will return sooner than he wants to say (imo he's just satisfying and managing fan interest and expectations -- Nico should watch and learn).

[KillerLeft]

I don't think its that important really.  I see no path to contention this coming season, so the focus should be on seeing what works and what doesn't and developing Flagg as much as possible. 

Wow, I do. I'm not predicting contention, really, but I think it's super possible.

[F Gump]

Mavs have signed Kyrie and DAR. Unless the Kyrie numbers are smaller than rumored (unlikely), their next move will have to be a player-(and salary)-clearing move. No room to sign Exum under A2.

[Mavs2021]

I watched about a minute of all the top 5 projected picks and now that Nurkic/Sexton trade makes a lot more sense. That Utah kid looks like a certified superstar. The handles, the body, the movement, the shot, the pumpfakes. Danny Ainge will be so pissed, when the Mavs win the lottery again. Nah I think you can lock Utah in for that top pick next year.

[Smitty]

Mavs have signed Kyrie and DAR. Unless the Kyrie numbers are smaller than rumored (unlikely), their next move will have to be a player-(and salary)-clearing move. No room to sign Exum under A2.

Any prediction? 

The easiest path is waiving Williams and trying to get him back on the last 2-way.

"The contract includes a base salary of $2,270,735 for the 2025-26 season. A portion of the contract, $200,000, became guaranteed on July 7th, and another portion, $850,000, will be guaranteed on opening night. The contract becomes fully guaranteed if he is still on the roster on January 10th."

So, Williams can make the $200,000 that he gets guaranteed today. Then, the Mavs can guarantee all of the $636,435 2-way deal. That gives him $836,435 completely guaranteed right now, vs the non-guaranteed $850,000 opening night and $1,220,735, 10 January.

It limits him to only 50 games again and he wouldn't be playoff eligible. I think Williams is an NBA player and deserves a real roster spot. Do you see this as being any realistic path? If Williams would even agree, is it something you'd do? Or do you prefer sending a player like Omax or Hardy for air, even if the cost is a second-round pick or two?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Any prediction? 

The easiest path is waiving Williams and trying to get him back on the last 2-way.

"The contract includes a base salary of $2,270,735 for the 2025-26 season. A portion of the contract, $200,000, became guaranteed on July 7th, and another portion, $850,000, will be guaranteed on opening night. The contract becomes fully guaranteed if he is still on the roster on January 10th."

So, Williams can make the $200,000 that he gets guaranteed today. Then, the Mavs can guarantee all of the $636,435 2-way deal. That gives him $836,435 completely guaranteed right now, vs the non-guaranteed $850,000 opening night and $1,220,735, 10 January.

It limits him to only 50 games again and he wouldn't be playoff eligible. I think Williams is an NBA player and deserves a real roster spot. Do you see this as being any realistic path? If Williams would even agree, is it something you'd do? Or do you prefer sending a player like Omax or Hardy for air, even if the cost is a second-round pick or two?

I believe he met the condition for the $200,000 already, so if he was the guy who wasn't going to stick, they would have done it yesterday.  In a tight apron world, that $200k matters and it doesn't necessarily buy any kind of tie to Dallas if they immediately cut him.

I think the fallback is either the trade of OMax or Powell as has been talked about or a S/W of one of them.  There are two rules at play here.  Carrying 16 guaranteed guys isn't the issue this time of year.  But, we are so close to Apron 2 with 15 guys that adding another guaranteed minimum contract would put us over by $873,000.  So, that is the thing that keeps Exum from being official right now.  If I'm his agent and given his injury history, I don't let this be an open question for long.  Dude could get hurt getting out of the shower.

Hoops Prospects has a depth chart that does a pretty good job of keeping up with the news flow.  That's probably the easiest place to search for teams with openings at either PF or C.

[F Gump]

I PREFER (IN ORDER)...
IDEA 1. Easiest answer that fills my MINIMUM wish is find a cap space or tpe team (whoever that is) and offer Omax and hope some team might give a pick for the opportunity.
IDEA 2. Send player with cash strapped to his leg to cover the salary, an avenue allowing salaries to be waived. Mavs have 8M-ish allowable, which would more than cover full salaries of both OMax and Powell. In theory either or both offer potential minimum salary value to someone to keep, Powell as a backup C and OMax as a kid to develop. A good negotiator can do such a deal easily.
IDEA 3. If I can't negotiate a cash-only deal, I sweeten a "with cash" offer by adding a SRP swap to a team who takes both.
IDEA 4. I can't imagine it would take more than that. Such deals happen often.

I would not waive BW. I would also prefer to clear DP and sign Kai to replace him. DP is more try-hard guy w an "inspiring story" than oncourt value these days, and Mavs need to move on.

[Chicagojk]

I think Prosper is the most likely guy, I think. Teams are very careful right now with the aprons, so not a lot of teams want to take on salary. I think moving Hardy will be tough. Probably the same for Powell. With Omax, teams can still see potential. Part of me hopes we would bring him back, but in reality there just isn't minutes for him here and it is probably best for him to move on. I just hope we get something back. even a protected second.

I wonder if they have a move lined up. From what I understand, we are not able to sign Exum until we clear up more money. Is that right?

[Smitty]

Hoops Prospects has a depth chart that does a pretty good job of keeping up with the news flow.  That's probably the easiest place to search for teams with openings at either PF or C.

I just did a quick scan of Hoops Prospects. To me, the need for Center around the league is greater than PF or SG. 

The only team that stood out to me as a possible Hardy destination was BKN.

Two teams that could want to take a flyer on Omax were BKN and WAS.

The potential Powell teams include BOS, CHA, GSW, IND, LAL, TOR.

I didn't go over the financial situations for all these teams, and I know some are already rumored to be in on free agents that could fill their needs.


Going back to what Gump suggested, I could see Powell being the easiest to move, especially if it's just cash attached to him. BUT then I'd want Kia Jones here. Which means you'd have to make yet another move.... 

My perfect scenario would probably be something like Powell and cash to IND. Then Hardy or Omax to BKN. Hardy probably costing a SRP. Omax maybe netting one. Sign Kai Jones to replace Powell.

I guess the good thing is we're really only talking about the fringes of the roster. This team is deep.

[myconsumerclub]

Prosper has shown flashes here and there and would be a keeper if we were still in the market to develop another PF/SF but with Cooepr and PJ our team is pretty set with star power at that position. Teams need to give us a 2nd round pick he was a 1st rounder when we drafted him. His stats are not great but that is to be expected with such sparse playing time.

[mvossman]

"The issue for me is they took a massive drop off in elite creation from Luka to AD..."

Luka as an individual is unquestionably an elite creator of offense in quantity. But how much of that was because his game is so heliocentric (ie, to what extent was it to the detriment or even prevention of anyone else doing so)?

It's hard to feather out Luka offense vs DAL as a whole last season since they played way more without him than with him (he only played 22). But in LA, Luka's personal offensive rating ppp was not any different than LA as a whole, which was middle tier (12th) in the league. I would expect the delta of Luka-in-LA vs LA to be significant and it's not.

I think it's possible the Mavs offense would have been okay after the trade, with it being spread among many (Kyrie doing more, plus AD added, plus others doing more than they had) who would each increase a bit, but we never had a chance to see, so who knows.

IMO the big drop-off is more from the loss of Kyrie as a big piece in a more diverse offense, and basically only DAR added to try to fill that hole. Having Flagg on the floor will help, perhaps a lot, but can Flagg + DAR = Kyrie in offense? If not, it could be ugly offense. (FWIW I would wager we will see not only a more diverse O but also a faster push-the-pace-every-time approach, which might make a huge diff and be very productive.)

However, even if O is ugly, all is not necessarily lost -- maybe they can make up the diff on the other end. Neither Luka nor Kyrie was exactly dominant defensively (heck, Luka often failed to even show on D, preferring to whine to refs instead, which really did piss me off a lot and felt lazy). So it should be interesting to see how it plays out as a whole. And I suspect Kyrie will return sooner than he wants to say (imo he's just satisfying and managing fan interest and expectations -- Nico should watch and learn).

I don't think splitting up elite creation minutes across lessor creators is particularly effective.  I think Kyrie was at his best (and most comfortable) as the second creator, and there was a steep drop off after him.  I don't think AD can come close to taking up all of that slack, and I'm not sure Dlo is a significant upgrade from Dinwiddie.  That leaves Flagg to fill in the rest (or overexpose other guys which did not look effective based on what little I saw late last season).  The issues will be exacerbated with multiple non shooters on the floor.

As for Luka impact on Lakers, given that he was coming off injury, blindsided by the trade, learning a new system and going from a team constructed for him to one that was not close, I expected his immediate impact to be subdued.  However, looking at the numbers post all star break, he had the highest offensive rating and highest net rating (+9) on the team (Reaves was +3, Lebron was +0 and they were not any better prior to the trade).  He improved the teams overall net rating, but it looks like they had significant win/loss luck prior to the trade (they had a net rating close to zero but over 600 winning percentage).  The reality is that team was not good prior to the trade, and they got worse this offseason.

This team should be better defensively.  However, with no POA defender and oversized in general, I think they will struggle to defend on the perimeter so I am not sure they will be truly elite.  A top 10 defense and average offense is probably a play-in team in the West. (EDIT: just to be clear, this is with Kyrie out)

[mvossman]

I just did a quick scan of Hoops Prospects. To me, the need for Center around the league is greater than PF or SG. 

The only team that stood out to me as a possible Hardy destination was BKN.

Two teams that could want to take a flyer on Omax were BKN and WAS.

The potential Powell teams include BOS, CHA, GSW, IND, LAL, TOR.

I didn't go over the financial situations for all these teams, and I know some are already rumored to be in on free agents that could fill their needs.


Going back to what Gump suggested, I could see Powell being the easiest to move, especially if it's just cash attached to him. BUT then I'd want Kia Jones here. Which means you'd have to make yet another move.... 

My perfect scenario would probably be something like Powell and cash to IND. Then Hardy or Omax to BKN. Hardy probably costing a SRP. Omax maybe netting one. Sign Kai Jones to replace Powell.

I guess the good thing is we're really only talking about the fringes of the roster. This team is deep.

If we want to ditch Powell to sign Kai, why wouldn't other teams simply sign Kai for the min instead of taking on Powell?  Maybe Indiana to hook back up with Rick?

[Smitty]

If we want to ditch Powell to sign Kai, why wouldn't other teams simply sign Kai for the min instead of taking on Powell?  Maybe Indiana to hook back up with Rick?

I've had the same thought. Kai Jones showed that he's an NBA-level player at least, so I think other Center needy teams would like to have him for the Min. My assumption is that he wants to be here. So, moving Powell makes sense if that's the case. Indy is the only obvious one with the Carlisle connection. Probably just wishful thinking on our part. It's not like I expect Powell to be moved, just that it'd be my preferred route.

[Mavs2021]

If we want to ditch Powell to sign Kai, why wouldn't other teams simply sign Kai for the min instead of taking on Powell?  Maybe Indiana to hook back up with Rick?

I wonder whether Adam would be upset, if Nico callled in another minor favour via the Utah route. Mykhailiuk + two 2nd round picks for Powell + Omax.

Also anyone want to take bets, which big market Ainge is ordered to send Markkanen for winning the 2026 lottery?

[Chicagojk]

I think Kai Jones is going to move on. Even if they move off Powell. I am not too worried with our front court. Heck even PJ could fill in at center for moments. I am more worried about creators.

I was surprised Hollinger didn't even mention Jones when he did his writeups on positions of all the free agents. I think he earned a spot with a team. We will see.

As for the point guard goes, I hope Russell can play 25 minutes a night. Maybe paired best with AD. It would be great if Exum could stay healthy or Williams proved last year was not a fluke. An Exum, SG, Flagg, PJ and Lively lineup will be one of my favorite lineups, I think.

[mvossman]

Wow, I do. I'm not predicting contention, really, but I think it's super possible.

I just think so many things would have to go right for that to be the case.  My biggest concern might be the continuity/chemistry.  Of the top three guys, AD and Kyrie have played in the same lineup for 25 minutes.  That's it.  And Kyrie won't get added back to the mix until late in the season.  Teams generally need time to jell (years) and take their lumps in the playoffs before reaching contender status.  My goal for this season is that they see what they have in Flagg, figure out what rotations work, get some quality minutes with Kyrie and make at least one 7 game playoff series.  Anything past that is gravy.

[F Gump]

I don't think splitting up elite creation minutes across lessor creators is particularly effective.  

While I follow your point, I tend to disagree that this road is the one that's going to get you farthest when all is said and done.

If the team sux, yes a singular player imposing his will is the best path to being very good. Let one very good player always do it all, because the rest will mess up. 

But imo that has a ceiling. 

For me, looking at overall basketball theory, I come down to the idea that 1 player can be limited easier than 5 ... so if you become completely heliocentric, you create a limit on your overall potential as a team. Potentially attacking from any of 3 or 4 directions any time up the court is better. Not a my turn your turn model, but a dynamic "anyone on any possession" approach with synergy. 

Speaking to the Luka model in particular: because the ball has to go to him EVERY play, it creates a choke point that helps the defense. The vast majority of times, the ball came up court only as fast as Luka did, and the attack only started when Luka attacked. The ball often went backwards to Luka. 

Luka is superior in being creative in attacking (in the half court) of course, but imo he is partly overcoming the obstacle that is artificially created by having the ball always in his hands, and only going through Luka, and going so slow. 

If Luka being hyper-heliocentric was superior, Mav's offense ppp should have been league's best if he's the best at that style. I don’t think that's been the case. 

Luka's style is always a star showcase, to be sure. 

APPLICATION. Luka is the best at what he does ... but I think there are better more effective overall approaches than how he does it. 

So imo Mavs dont need "another Luka" to be able to be effective. They need a better overall attack, which can come from many players in many ways.