MAVS NEWS:

[Mavs2021]

I don't THINK the goal is to move on from Kyrie, but I have to admit that finding out they gave him a "take it or leave it" offer wouldn't turn me off. Where's he going to go,  and do we even know he'll be any good (almost) a year from now, when he's back? I keep seeing people say Christmas - no way, Jose. Maybe the all star break, but even then the rest of his season will be rehab, basically. And after? Anyone's guess is as good as mine, but I'd say this injury makes it clear that his very best years are over. 

Bingo.

[F Gump]

KL - "I have to admit that finding out they gave him a "take it or leave it" offer wouldn't turn me off. Where's he going to go, and do we even know he'll be any good (almost) a year from now, when he's back?" ---

That's not the equation at all.

If you don't get to a deal he likes, he goes nowhere. Mavs aren't off the hook. YOU choke down the $45M cap hit year where he plays half the year or less.

Then he walks as a FA, you get no compensation, and someone else gets him for the ensuing years when he's full speed again. You think that's a win somehow? Goodness, I don't.

Of course, if you think he's done, then yeah, you don't tack on extra years. Obviously if he's done, he's done, and you don't compound the problem with more money. But I'm willing to bet he'll be back and be good again.

[cow]

Where's he going to go

Wizards

[Jym]

Letting him walk for nothing is probably better than paying him $45+ mil in 3 years

[cow]

Letting him walk for nothing is probably better than paying him $45+ mil in 3 years

Agreed.  And then we can trade AD.  Everyone coming around to #TeamRebuild.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Nothing of note has happened. Yet reading the tea leaves I am starting to feel like we should go ahead and hit that reset button. If you can get a big package for AD that includes a young guard...move him, Kyrie, Klay.

Lively/Gafford
PJ Wash/Flagg
Flagg/Naji
Christie
Young guard

bunch of picks in the arsenal

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

Agreed.  And then we can trade AD.  Everyone coming around to #TeamRebuild.

hah

[ThisIStheYear]

The Mavs have all the leverage.

[DallasMaverick]

Nothing of note has happened.  Yet reading the tea leaves I am starting to feel like we should go ahead and hit that reset button.  If you can get a big package for AD that includes a young guard...move him, Kyrie, Klay.

Lively/Gafford
PJ Wash/Flagg
Flagg/Naji
Christie
Young guard

bunch of picks in the arsenal

I get the feeling that they want to win now, and in the future.

[F Gump]

Interestingly, Bobby Marks (who has no dog in the hunt) opined that he felt the numbers for Kyrie should be 3/113 -- which in essence is tacking on 2 years at 70M. He felt that both sides would be giving a bit, to allow for the risk in Kyrie's recovery. Kyrie gets a guarantee to protect the downside, Mavs get potential upside for taking the risk, and both sides get to remain partners.

That could make the y/y/y come in at something like 35, 37.5, 40.

Thoughts?

FWIW the deadline for a decision is 10:59 Dallas time, it gets made by Kyrie, and "no decision" means he will become a FA and be doing a new deal.

[KillerLeft]

KL - "I have to admit that finding out they gave him a "take it or leave it" offer wouldn't turn me off. Where's he going to go,  and do we even know he'll be any good (almost) a year from now, when he's back?" ---

That's not the equation at all.

If you don't get to a deal he likes, he goes nowhere. Mavs aren't off the hook. YOU choke down the $45M cap hit year where he plays half the year or less.

Then he walks as a FA, you get no compensation, and someone else gets him for the ensuing years when he's full speed again. You think that's a win somehow? Goodness, I don't.

Of course, if you think he's done, then yeah, you don't tack on extra years. Obviously if he's done, he's done, and you don't compound the problem with more money. But I'm willing to bet he'll be back and be good again.

I fully admit that him opting in during his injury year, on top of being a malcontent about his situation…not great. I hadn’t really thought that eventually through, and you make a great point.

I guess all I’m saying is I am Farr, far from confident he’s ever going to be the player we like again, and I’m not sure I want to be on the hook for another big, long contract with him.

[KillerLeft]

Interestingly, Bobby Marks (who has no dog in the hunt) opined that he felt the numbers for Kyrie should be 3/113 -- which in essence is tacking on 2 years at 70M. He felt that both sides would be giving a bit, to allow for the risk in Kyrie's recovery. Kyrie gets a guarantee to protect the downside, Mavs get potential upside for taking the risk, and both sides get to remain partners.

That could make the y/y/y come in at something like 35, 37.5, 40.

Thoughts?

FWIW the deadline for a decision is 10:59 Dallas time, it gets made by Kyrie, and "no decision" means he will become a FA and be doing a new deal.

Except (and I know you don’t trust Shams, but) what started this conversation was shams saying they’ve already offered a bigger deal than that (around $40 million per year) and Kyrie has already rejected it, claiming it’s too low. 

Is it possible that you and Bobby Marks are wrong, and if so, does the idea that Kyrie, like Daniel Gafford, might get a lot more than you expect change the equation for you? Because it might change things a bit for me.

[DallasMaverick]

Kyrie.

What are the odds that he returns and plays as well as before?

Any stats on NBA players who’ve had ACL repairs? Seems like a fairly routine surgery nowadays, although the recovery takes at least 9 months.

Achilles? Another story.

Recency bias causes us to think that he’s never going to be good again, so why pay him?

Same with AD. Most of what we’ve seen of him lately has been in street clothes, sitting on the sideline. So clearly, he’s no good and never will be, either.

…except…

Statistically, they are both likely to return as all-NBA level players.

Aren’t they?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Kyrie opts out.  Signs 3 for $119mm.  Last year is PO

[DallasMaverick]

ACL tears in NBA over 10 years:

# Date Player Age L / R Games missed Back in NBA game after…
1 09-Mar-2012 Ricky Rubio 22 Left 36 9 months
2 28-Apr-2012 Derrick Rose 23 Left 82 16 months
3 06-May-2012 Bron Davis 32 Right End of career
4 03-Nov-2012 Brandon Rush 26 Left 80 11 months
5 20-Dec-2012 Josh Howard 32 Right End of career
6 27-01-2013 Rajon Rondo 27 Right 74 12 months
7 07-Feb-2013 Lou Williams 27 Right 42 9 months
8 12-Feb-2013 Leandro Barbosa 30 Left 30 11 months
9 05-Apr-2013 Danilo Gallinari 24 Left 88 20 months
10 31-Jan-2014 Nate Robinson 29 Left 37 9 months
11 22-Mar-2014 JJ Hickson 25 Right 13 7 months
12 16-Dec-2014 Jabari Parker 19 Left 57 10 months
13 17-Jan-2015 Kendall Marshall 24 Right 37 11 months
14 06-Aug-2015 Dante Exum 20 Left 82 14 months
15 03-Jan-2016 Jarret Jack 32 Right 48 13 months
16 16-Dec-2016 Chris Andersen 38 Right End of career
17 03-Feb-2017 Zach LaVine 21 Left 11 months
18 08-Feb-2017 Jabari Parker 21 Left 12 months
19 25-Jul-2017 Brandon Knight 25 Left 14 months
20 08-Feb-2018 Kristaps Porzingis 22 Left 16 months
21 17-Oct-2018 Dejounte Murray 21 Right 12 months
22 22-Oct-2019 DeMarcus Cousins 28 Left 12 months
23 25-Feb-2020 Jeremy Lamb 28 Left 11 months
24 04-Aug-2020 Jonathan Isaac 22 Left
25 28-Dec-2020 Spencer Dinwiddie 27 Right 10 months
26 08-Jan-2021 Markelle Fultz 23 Left 13 months
27 11-Jan-2021 Thomas Bryant 23 Left 12 months
28 13-Apr-2021 Jamal Murray 24 Left In progress
29 07-Jul-2021 Dario Saric 27 Right In progress

[DallasMaverick]

Kyrie opts out.  Signs 3 for $119mm.  Last year is PO

Ok.

A little disappointed it wasn’t less, but ok.

[Smitty]

Kyrie opts out.  Signs 3 for $119mm.  Last year is PO

Fantastic. Kyrie does the team a favor once again. This might open the full TPMLE.

[Winter]

According to Bobby Marks, it should allow the Mavs to use the mid-level

[DanSchwartzgan]

Ok.

A little disappointed it wasn’t less, but ok.

Starting at $37mm is about what I've been expecting.  I believe we now have enough to use the TX MLE and still have about $1.1mm under A2.

[cow]

Love or hate his past, Kyrie's been a really good Mav.

Bring on CP3.