2025 draft thread: THE MAVS SELECT COOPER FLAGG

[FireNicoHarrison]

Anyone who thinks this was rigged is low IQ.

Wow. Great ego.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I don't believe it. At this point, anything is possible especially in sports where things can be manipulated for the greater good.

[Mavs2021]

I would've thought that, too, before I dug in over the past few days. I just don't think it's possible.

Further, I don't think the motivations are as clear as conspiracy theorists believe. Sooo many conflicting agendas would have to find common purpose to pull it off. It's so far-fetched I don't even think it's worth wondering about, personally.

I saw the Zach Lowe podcast about the draft room and the procedure. I don´t know whether they use the same 14 balls to draw each of the four numbers, but say they just enter 14 balls into the machine and draw one, then the other 13 balls get released from the bowl. Afterwards the next 14 balls are entered into the bowl and the next ball is drawn. Under those circumstances you only need to manipulate one ball for each drawing, make it heavier and magnetic whatever. I also don´t know how the numbers are aligned to the odds. Maybe the Mavs have a winning ticket for certain combinations that you don´t even need to fix all four drawings. I don´t know whether they did fix it, but I 100% believe it can be done.

At the end of the day the lottery odds were 

Mavs 1.8% (after Luka left to Lakers)
Cavs 2.8% (after LeBron left to Miami)
Cavs 1.7% (after LeBron returns)
Pelicans 6% (after AD left to Lakers)

So four of the five lowest probability winners of the lottery in the last 15 years have lined up perfectly with four of the most traumatic events of the last 15 years. 

It´s not the "normal" Wizards, Blazers, Hornets or Jazz franchises that landed those 1.8% odds in that year. No it´s the exact traumatized franchise in that exact year that landed those exact low probability odds. And it did not happen once, no it happened four times in 15 years.

[KillerLeft]

I saw the Zach Lowe podcast about the draft room and the procedure. I don´t know whether they use the same 14 balls to draw each of the four numbers, but say they just enter 14 balls into the machine and draw one, then the other 13 balls get released from the bowl. Afterwards the next 14 balls are entered into the bowl and the next ball is drawn. Under those circumstances you only need to manipulate one ball for each drawing, make it heavier and magnetic whatever. I also don´t know how the numbers are aligned to the odds. Maybe the Mavs have a winning ticket for certain combinations that you don´t even need to fix all four drawings. I don´t know whether they did fix it, but I 100% believe it can be done.

At the end of the day the lottery odds were 

Mavs 1.8% (after Luka left to Lakers)
Cavs 2.8% (after LeBron left to Miami)
Cavs 1.7% (after LeBron returns)
Pelicans 6% (after AD left to Lakers)

So four of the five lowest probability winners of the lottery in the last 15 years have lined up perfectly with four of the most traumatic events of the last 15 years. 

It´s not the "normal" Wizards, Blazers, Hornets or Jazz franchises that landed those 1.8% odds in that year. No it´s the exact traumatized franchise in that exact year that landed those exact low probability odds. And it did not happen once, no it happened four times in 15 years.

I don't know what to tell you, my guy. Believe what you want. I'm confident it's not rigged, personally.

[Mavs2021]

I don't know what to tell you, my guy. Believe what you want. I'm confident it's not rigged, personally.

The probability of those exact four lotteries having these very favourable outcome for the NBA and the specific traumatized teams was 0.0000514%.

You think that that is more likely than the NBA being capable of building a lottery box that can spit out 1 specific ball out of 14 balls. 

I mean....

[FireNicoHarrison]

We passed through refs corruption... Anything is possible in NBA. It's no more a credible sport league.

And the Silver speech during the ASG was pretty clear.

We got refunded, it's not good of course but at least we can mitigate our anger for the collusion.

[KillerLeft]

The probability of those exact four lotteries having these very favourable outcome for the NBA and the specific traumatized teams was 0.0000514%.

You think that that is more likely than the NBA being capable of building a lottery box that can spit out 1 specific ball out of 14 balls. 

I mean....

I don't even agree that you can paint with the "favorable outcome for the NBA" brush so liberally. It's so easy to reverse-engineer conspiracy theories based on the results, but in reality, this was all voted on by all of the teams: the process, the odds, everything. If "the NBA" (meaning Silver and co) have an agenda here, it's likely just to discourage tanking, but even THAT part is just them carrying out the assignment given to them by consensus of "the league," which is actually a collection of people all in it for their team, with their own agendas. 

And, a lottery box isn't "spitting out" anything. Someone is controlling it, exactly as someone else directs them, and that second person has their back turned. There's a timing element that is, by the account of many, many people who've witnessed this, and who are all present at the drawing, "impossible" to rig. Literally everyone I've seen talk about this who has actually been present during one of these lotteries is so dismissive of the idea that it's fake that it's enough for me to set that thought aside. These are people who have major issues with the results and don't like what has happened during the past few, and what they want to discuss is the RULES, as in how the odds are determined. 

I think it's ironic that this topic has GAINED traction here now that we're on this winning side of it, because we're uniquely close enough to the situation to completely shoot down the faulty logic involved. The Mavs absolutely, 100% didn't behave like a team expecting a "quid pro quo" after the trade. They rushed AD back (twice) and then played Kyrie more minutes than they should have TO TRY TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. Then, they WON their first play-in game and tried like hell to compete in the second. So right there, we factually KNOW this wasn't "set up" at the time of the trade. 

Is it possible "the NBA" decided to throw the Mavs a bone based on the trade's aftermath? The public backlash, and potential to lose traction in maybe the 5th biggest market in the country? That makes a little more sense, I guess, but again, that would require the OTHER OWNERS to be in on it. Silver is not "in charge" of anything. He works FOR THEM. Imagine how pissed Danny Ainge would be today if there was even a fraction of a chance that he had just been willfully screwed after his approach to the past couple of seasons. He probably is pissed, but about the APPROACH to determining the odds, not about "rigging." There's just no plausible way "they" could get away with it. 

What many people just don't seem to want to believe, STILL, is that Nico Harrison just didn't want Luka Doncic on this team anymore. You can think he's wrong or stupid for that, absolutely, but there doesn't have to be some nefarious plot afoot to motivate what happened in February. Honestly, I highly doubt the Lakers will even experience the kind of success everyone assumes they will as a result. I see the trade and the lottery as two, separate things. Neither is good GMing, as the trade was executed poorly and the lottery was miraculous, dumb luck backed into by accidental failure. BUT, once you wrap your head around the idea that Luka might actually have deserved to be given up on rather than paid that damn SUPER MAX, then the rest is pretty easy to see clearly. He lost the negotiation part of it, FOR SURE, but "they" didn't FORCE him to trade Luka or promise this pick or anything silly like that.

[FireNicoHarrison]

Is it possible "the NBA" decided to throw the Mavs a bone based on the trade's aftermath? The public backlash, and potential to lose traction in maybe the 5th biggest market in the country? 

This.

[david75090]

I think it's a definite maybe.

[Mavs2021]

I don't even agree that you can paint with the "favorable outcome for the NBA" brush so liberally. It's so easy to reverse-engineer conspiracy theories based on the results, but in reality, this was all voted on by all of the teams: the process, the odds, everything. If "the NBA" (meaning Silver and co) have an agenda here, it's likely just to discourage tanking, but even THAT part is just them carrying out the assignment given to them by consensus of "the league," which is actually a collection of people all in it for their team, with their own agendas. 

You don´t think Cleveland native LeBron in Cleveland, Chicago native Rose in Chicago (btw another of those 1.7% surprises) or the described events of calming down the fanbases of Cleveland, New Orleans or Dallas are favourable outcomes for the NBA? You think they wanted LeBron in Utah or Rose in Washington or that the Mavs play in an empty arena for the next five years until some nutjob kills an NBA GM? If you want to argue that these low probability outcomes were not favourable for the NBA, there is no ground for a discussion.

And, a lottery box isn't "spitting out" anything. Someone is controlling it, exactly as someone else directs them, and that second person has their back turned. There's a timing element that is, by the account of many, many people who've witnessed this, and who are all present at the drawing, "impossible" to rig. Literally everyone I've seen talk about this who has actually been present during one of these lotteries is so dismissive of the idea that it's fake that it's enough for me to set that thought aside. These are people who have major issues with the results and don't like what has happened during the past few, and what they want to discuss is the RULES, as in how the odds are determined. 

It´s impossible to bribe two human beings that operate a machine? I´m so confused. 

I think it's ironic that this topic has GAINED traction here now that we're on this winning side of it, because we're uniquely close enough to the situation to completely shoot down the faulty logic involved. The Mavs absolutely, 100% didn't behave like a team expecting a "quid pro quo" after the trade. They rushed AD back (twice) and then played Kyrie more minutes than they should have TO TRY TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. Then, they WON their first play-in game and tried like hell to compete in the second. So right there, we factually KNOW this wasn't "set up" at the time of the trade. 

I don´t care either way. Mavs won. Good for them. The Mavs tried to win the play-in game? I haven´t seen the game, but the boxscore sure does not look like they were every in any danger to win that game against a struggling Memphis team.

I already acknowledged the decision was made once Kyrie got hurt.

Is it possible "the NBA" decided to throw the Mavs a bone based on the trade's aftermath? The public backlash, and potential to lose traction in maybe the 5th biggest market in the country? That makes a little more sense, I guess, but again, that would require the OTHER OWNERS to be in on it. Silver is not "in charge" of anything. He works FOR THEM. Imagine how pissed Danny Ainge would be today if there was even a fraction of a chance that he had just been willfully screwed after his approach to the past couple of seasons. He probably is pissed, but about the APPROACH to determining the odds, not about "rigging." There's just no plausible way "they" could get away with it. 

That´s the flaw in your thinking. They are all in on it. They are all in the NBA to make money. If the league is doing well every owner, every GM, every coach, every player, every agent, every journalist gets paid. 

It´s like doping. Everybody does it. When somebody gets caught, he´s not outlawed publically. No everybody keeps quiet. Have you ever seen athletes outraged, when another player is caught doping? That they feel cheated out of their success, cause they are clean? No. It´s the bro code. 

Baseball tried the other way and the only thing fans really cared about was the lack of superhuman homeruns.

What many people just don't seem to want to believe, STILL, is that Nico Harrison just didn't want Luka Doncic on this team anymore. You can think he's wrong or stupid for that, absolutely, but there doesn't have to be some nefarious plot afoot to motivate what happened in February. Honestly, I highly doubt the Lakers will even experience the kind of success everyone assumes they will as a result. I see the trade and the lottery as two, separate things. Neither is good GMing, as the trade was executed poorly and the lottery was miraculous, dumb luck backed into by accidental failure. BUT, once you wrap your head around the idea that Luka might actually have deserved to be given up on rather than paid that damn SUPER MAX, then the rest is pretty easy to see clearly. He lost the negotiation part of it, FOR SURE, but "they" didn't FORCE him to trade Luka or promise this pick or anything silly like that.

I never claimed the trade was rigged, but did you just come full circle, cause it´s easy to say now that Luka is not worth the supermax that you have Cooper Flagg. 

Silver´s mission is complete. He calmed the Mavs fanbase down that put a blackeye on the whole NBA. You think a GM needing 24/7 bodyguard protection, a half empty arena in the 5th biggest NBA market and rioting fans is a good look for the NBA? And you think it would have gotten any better next season? With Nico still in charge, with Kyrie out and the moment the inevitable AD injury happens it all flares up again. The whole situation was still explosive, until the new fire extinguisher arrived.

I´ll now go and copyright that nickname for Flagg: The fire extinguisher.

[KillerLeft]

I'm going to back out of this conversation now. I think it's silly.

Everyone is free to believe what they want and consume the NBA product how they wish (or not).

What we're NOT going to do HERE is turn this into a place where we discuss everything EXCEPT basketball. I feel like we're nearing the "tinfoil hat theory quota" for the month.

[Mavs2021]

I'm going to back out of this conversation now. I think it's silly.

Everyone is free to believe what they want and consume the NBA product how they wish (or not).

What we're NOT going to do HERE is turn this into a place where we discuss everything EXCEPT basketball. I feel like we're nearing the "tinfoil hat theory quota" for the month.

I have no fight in these Mavs, so I let it go. Though I reject the notion that it´s a some tinfoil hat conspiracy theory that a billion dollar corporation would be too honourable to pay a top engineer a million dollars to fix a simple lottery machine that can ensure its financial prosperity for decades to come. That probability is certainly higher than 0.0000514%.

[DallasMaverick]

I'm going to back out of this conversation now. I think it's silly.

Everyone is free to believe what they want and consume the NBA product how they wish (or not).

What we're NOT going to do HERE is turn this into a place where we discuss everything EXCEPT basketball. I feel like we're nearing the "tinfoil hat theory quota" for the month.

Lol, good line, but editing bc of obvious politics can of worms. That's the only thing worse than the current conversation I can imagine.

--KL

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

The Anthony Bennett lottery was definitely rigged.

[michaeltex]

I'm going to back out of this conversation now. I think it's silly.

Everyone is free to believe what they want and consume the NBA product how they wish (or not).

What we're NOT going to do HERE is turn this into a place where we discuss everything EXCEPT basketball. I feel like we're nearing the "tinfoil hat theory quota" for the month.

[DallasMaverick]

Lol, good line, but editing bc of obvious politics can of worms. That's the only thing worse than the current conversation I can imagine.

--KL

Ya. I kinda like to poke the ant pile with a sharp stick.

[Jmaciscool]

I think it's easy to look at specific examples and think that the lottery is rigged, but that's picking data to fit a narrative.  For example, New Orleans getting gifted the #1 pick in Zion's year after dealing AD to the Lakers seems very convenient and leans towards a conspiracy of that year being rigged.  But does it really?

New Orleans had a 6% chance of getting the #1 pick (same as Dallas and Memphis fwiw), so the odds were definitely stacked against them.  The Lakers had a 2% of the #1 pick, and obviously didn't win.  But what if they had?  Then all of sudden the NBA is "gifting" LA the number one pick that just happens to coincide with LeBron joining the premier franchise, etc, etc.  If that had actually happened it would have been another sign of things being rigged.

So now we have two different scenarios, both of which have a good story that can serve as evidence of rigging, and the combined odds of either of those happening is now 8%.  Are there any other teams that year (or any year) that could have similar stories, thus increasing the odds that a "rigged" type of story happen?  Pretty sure there's a number of events/situations every season that could be classified in a category of being rigged had that team won the lottery.

Point being that the odds of a specific team that can have a good "reason" for getting "gifted" a #1 pick are very low, but the combined odds of any number of teams with a "story" getting the #1 pick are much higher. That happens every year, so I agree that the odds of the specific scenarios that have played out with the #1 picks recently are very low, but there's a multitude of similar low odd scenarios that could have also happened. Any specific one of those unlikely scenarios actually happening is unlikely, but the odds of one of them happening is much higher.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

That‘s the goal of the new lottery odds, to not reward hardcore tanking on a regular basis. Their chances of not getting a Top 4 pick were fifty-fifty (for each of them, not for the combination, to be mathematically precise). And the Sixers did well in the end I guess with the third pick, didn’t they?

The point is, it's a double-edged sword. Discouraging tanking which has mostly worked but simultaneously, hurting the chances of the worst teams ever improving. What if there's a bad team that's just bad and not trying to tank?  The new CBA makes it harder for even the good teams to stay good, trying to avoid the 2nd apron with its penalties. It's not really fair. The lottery needs to be tweaked again.

[cow]

The point is, it's a double-edged sword. Discouraging tanking which has mostly worked but simultaneously, hurting the chances of the worst teams ever improving. What if there's a bad team that's just bad and not trying to tank?  The new CBA makes it harder for even the good teams to stay good, trying to avoid the 2nd apron with its penalties. It's not really fair. The lottery needs to be tweaked again.

I've always kicked around the idea that if you get the #1 pick in a draft you shouldn't be allowed to get another top pick for x number of years.   You could do something like 5 or 10 years and the next year after landing the top pick, the highest you could earn is the number of years left on that rule.  So if the rule was 5, next year the top pick the Mavs could earn would be #5, the next year would be #4, and so on and so forth.  That has flaws of course depending on the strength of the class, but would prevent the type of luck we've seen from SAS.

[The Jom]

Knowing what I've learned about HOW the process of selecting the balls works over the past 48 hours, YES. Impossible to cheat without literally hundreds of people in on it. That is a fact.

Interesting use of the term “fact,” professor. Cheers!