Trade & FA 2024-25:

[Scott41theMavs]

I'm in the Anti-Durant trade camp.  I look at Christie as the de facto starter at SG (He closes and gets more minutes than Thompson).  So, with a lineup of Irving, Christie, PJ, AD and Lively all healthy, what do you really need (besides health)?  Who is your weak link that demands to be replaced?  Sorry, I don't see gutting the depth for the spread between KD and PJ (for instance).  I'm GREAT with Christie and PJ as my 4th/5th starters.

We can win games based on our depth. Gafford, Martin, Naji, Thompson (effectively).  The age and history of our stars demands good depth IMHO.  With AD and PJ having positional optionality, you have plenty up front and tons of wing-defender options (maybe too many).  As many many have noted, we could probably use some more creation off the bench.  I'd like to keep Exum, but I don't want to be dependent on Exum.  I'm fine if we trade Hardy and some wing depth for that creation or if we draft it and let it develop behind Exum.  I'm fine going to war the next three years with something like that.  If we get there we get there.  A championship was never guaranteed whether we did the Christie trade or not  

What worries me is the rumors around Nico's attempts to do a KD deal before the deadline and the fact AD gave up $6mm.  Did he really do that so we could trade Grimes for Martin?  I doubt it and that worries me.

I might be okay in a "sure, whatever" sort of way with a KD trade - as long as Christie, PJ, and Lively aren't included in the deal.

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

^ totally agree with Dan

You know how everyone is playing hard and listening to the coach right now? KD is a culture killer. Suns fans are wondering what happened to Devin Booker.

Also, I have grown to love PJ Washington. I don't want to trade him.

But I think we need some more offensive firepower. So where do you add to this team? It would be nice if they could get healthy so we can see exactly what we need after a playoff series.

[mvossman]

Getting more touches is exactly why he is more efficient. The more you do something at practice the better you get at it. The more you do it in game situations the better you get at it under game pressure.

I'm not saying you can't win with one of those guys starting. I'm saying that Dallas team isn't winning with one of those guys starting. They were worn out. I don't like the idea of thinking "surely Boston can't sustain that". I'd rather build a team that can win no matter who they face.

If you go back and look at advanced stats you will see that Luka had a usage rate of 40% during that series. You can't have that from one player and expect to win unless that player is a workout beast. Harden had usage rates close to what Luka averages during the runs to the WCF they had. The only time that has ever been successful is with Michael Jordan. Because MJ had the stamina to be an offensive scoring title/All Offense and a DPOY/All Defense.

Even LeBron has never had usage rates that high. LeBron in his prime on title runs would hit usage of 30-33% after the all star break through the playoffs. Luka is averaging 33% and higher during the season and hitting 40% in the playoffs. That's not sustainable. It's also not winning basketball outside of anyone named MJ.

So, unless Dallas added more playmaking and scoring to get Luka playing off ball and lower usage that wasn't going to happen.

In general, when a player takes more shots their efficiency goes down because the difficulty of shots goes up.

Trading DJJ defense for Klay shooting might be a better matchup for Boston, but might be a worse matchup for OKC.

Reducing Luka usage is a reasonable goal, but Klay is not an offensive creator.  He is a finisher.  I would argue the biggest issue was the lack of an offensive creator coming off the bench (with Kidd not trusting Exum).  

None of this matters now.  We have to start from scratch to see what works and what doesn't, and with all of the injuries there will be even less sample.  I hope they manage to sneak into at least one playoff series because we can learn a lot from that.  Of course that won't really matter if Nico pulls the next big trigger in the offseason.

[SleepingHero]

I might be okay in a "sure, whatever" sort of way with a KD trade - as long as Christie, PJ, and Lively aren't included in the deal.

Count me in this camp.

I am looking at a KD trade like a bystander watching Thanos get the infinity stones. Dread it, run from it. Nico will still Nico. It's going to happen. I am just focused on keeping the best available guys that we can after that trade.

Lively, Christie, and PJ are non-starters for me. They are too impactful. I'd want to keep Klay too but we won't have the money for this all in trade. If we can keep the best guys then Kyrie/Christie/KD/AD/Lively is a helluva starting 5 even with our aging stars.  Then we have PJ off the bench to wreak havoc. Hopefully we can keep Exum and/or Dinwiddie on a minimum as well, and then hope there are a bunch of ring chasers. 

Again, I don't want a KD trade to happen, but I am so convinced that this was Nico's grand idea when he moved Luka that I think he will try and make it happen no matter what.

[mvossman]

I might be okay in a "sure, whatever" sort of way with a KD trade - as long as Christie, PJ, and Lively aren't included in the deal.

I would be willing to bet PJ goes out in that trade.  It makes too much sense.  The 31 pick and 32 swap would be in significant jeopardy as well.

[Scott41theMavs]

I would be willing to bet PJ goes out in that trade.  It makes too much sense.  The 31 pick and 32 swap would be in significant jeopardy as well.

Yeah, I would be completely out on that. So would Nico if he's watched any games, tbh. PJ plays defense while KD can't anymore.

[Chicagojk]

PJ has been so good. If he can shoot 37-38% from three this just opens up so much more. I really wanted to see if he can play well at the 3. We probably won't see much of it this year. How well he plays at three will probably tell us how long he will be in Dallas. It may not be full time at the three, but I think you would want him to finish games at three. Most games. Matchups will be dependent. I just don't think in time you can keep Lively on the bench late in games when you think he has all star potential.

[mvossman]

Yeah, I would be completely out on that. So would Nico if he's watched any games, tbh. PJ plays defense while KD can't anymore.

I think this will be a really good test of Nico mindset.  If he goes hard at KD (which almost has to include PJ) that tells you this is more about getting his boys here than about building something long term.  To me, it will make all this talk about Luka supermax being an anchor total crap.

[F Gump]

I think this will be a really good test of Nico mindset.  If he goes hard at KD (which almost has to include PJ) ...

No, a KD trade does not have to include PJ. The Mavs can keep all 3 of PJ, Lively, and Christie, and trade everyone else other than AD - Kyrie (gutting their depth, but that's true with about any version because KD has such a large salary to match). If it's me, none of them would be on the table.

And whatever PHX thinks they want, Mavs can always say no, until PHX is more reasonable.

As we have already seen with the Luka trade, a trade doesn't necessarily end up including all the stuff you imagined. It's a matter of negotiation. Nor do I think the PHX price would be sky high. KD is older, which lowers his value, and I don't get the sense that the Suns would want to force KD to stay, which would mean his price should be reasonable enough to allow a trade to happen. If he's pushing for Dallas, that's probably the key factor.

[mvossman]

No, a KD trade does not have to include PJ. The Mavs can keep all 3 of PJ, Lively, and Christie, and trade everyone else other than AD - Kyrie (gutting their depth, but that's true with about any version because KD has such a large salary to match). If it's me, none of them would be on the table.

And whatever PHX thinks they want, Mavs can always say no, until PHX is more reasonable.

As we have already seen with the Luka trade, a trade doesn't necessarily end up including all the stuff you imagined. It's a matter of negotiation. Nor do I think the PHX price would be sky high. KD is older, which lowers his value, and I don't get the sense that the Suns would want to force KD to stay, which would mean his price should be reasonable enough to allow a trade to happen. If he's pushing for Dallas, that's probably the key factor.

Lets just say that if there is a KD trade, I am predicting PJ is part of the outgoing.  If AD is at the 4 and KD is at the 3, are they planning on starting PJ at the 2?  I believe you need either PJ or Klay in that trade to make the money work, and I doubt Suns have any interest in Klay.  PJ makes way more sense for them.  

Mavs can always say no, but so can the Suns.  KD is old but he is still a superstar.  If you are using Luka trade as an example of a trade not including what is expected, it was Nico that got less than expected.  I am fully prepared to watch Nico to give up more than expected to get his final piece.

[audiosway]

PJ has been so good.  If he can shoot 37-38% from three this just opens up so much more.  I really wanted to see if he can play well at the 3.  We probably won't see much of it this year.  How well he plays at three will probably tell us how long he will be in Dallas.  It may not be full time at the three, but I think you would want him to finish games at three.  Most games.  Matchups will be dependent.  I just don't think in time you can keep Lively on the bench late in games when you think he has all star potential.

I totally agree. PJ is only 26 and is flashing some serious 2 way potential right now. I would love to see him at the 3 with AD and Lively at the 4 and 5. I seriously think we have something in PJ and Christie as some young guys to build on for the future as well as being a contender now.

[F Gump]

Lets just say that if there is a KD trade, I am predicting PJ is part of the outgoing.  If AD is at the 4 and KD is at the 3, are they planning on starting PJ at the 2?  I believe you need either PJ or Klay in that trade to make the money work, and I doubt Suns have any interest in Klay.  PJ makes way more sense for them.  

Mavs can always say no, but so can the Suns.  KD is old but he is still a superstar.  

Sure, PJ could be part of the outgoing. But he doesn't have to be. Open your mind!

To me, to do the trade, I simply don't put any of PJ, Christie, or LIvely on the table - and I believe the Mavs have PLENTY of other good players at good salaries to be enough. If it isn't, I don't do the deal. I don't assume a trade gets done necessarily - the "Nico is stupid so of course he does it" is an argument I don't find persuasive.

As to the starter issue, obviously if you keep 5 starter types and add KD, someone will be asked to be the 6th man. But there will be plenty of minutes for everyone. If you keep Klay instead of PJ, it's the same issue. There's no reason it can't be PJ as 6th man, and I would choose to keep him instead of Klay since he's younger.  I don't allow PJ, Christie, or Lively to be on the table, and PHX still gets a slew of starter-caliber players (all 4 of Gafford, Martin, Marshall, Klay - unless they don't want him, like you theorize) and some useful depth (Powell, Hardy) and 2025 1st rounder will also be part of the immediate mix.

The idea that the Mavs would have 6 starter types is already an issue, as they have at least 6 and maybe 8 (!) on the roster (Lively, Gallford, AD, PJ, Christie, Matrtin, Klay, Kyrie). And Kidd may see Exum as a starter too, which means there's 9!

If the Suns have no interest in Klay, he goes to a 3rd team. There HAS TO be a 3rd team taking one or more of those players with their salary, no matter what you do, and you should be able to get some draft capital back if that player is Klay.

[Chicagojk]

I'm in the Anti-Durant trade camp.  I look at Christie as the de facto starter at SG (He closes and gets more minutes than Thompson).  So, with a lineup of Irving, Christie, PJ, AD and Lively all healthy, what do you really need (besides health)?  Who is your weak link that demands to be replaced?  Sorry, I don't see gutting the depth for the spread between KD and PJ (for instance).  I'm GREAT with Christie and PJ as my 4th/5th starters.

We can win games based on our depth. Gafford, Martin, Naji, Thompson (effectively).  The age and history of our stars demands good depth IMHO.  With AD and PJ having positional optionality, you have plenty up front and tons of wing-defender options (maybe too many).  As many many have noted, we could probably use some more creation off the bench.  I'd like to keep Exum, but I don't want to be dependent on Exum.  I'm fine if we trade Hardy and some wing depth for that creation or if we draft it and let it develop behind Exum.  I'm fine going to war the next three years with something like that.  If we get there we get there.  A championship was never guaranteed whether we did the Christie trade or not  

What worries me is the rumors around Nico's attempts to do a KD deal before the deadline and the fact AD gave up $6mm.  Did he really do that so we could trade Grimes for Martin?  I doubt it and that worries me.

What I am struggling with is how this team can become a contender again.   Just guessing, but I believe Nico wants a deep and physical team.    I think we are missing at least a piece, but I am not sure what that missing piece is.   I think we can assume that AD and Kyrie are the two untouchables.   I would hope Lively is close to that, but I am not sure.   Outside of that, I think no one is off limits.   I think the Mavs are higher than most of us on Thompson and I expect he is on the roster next season.   One of Exum or Dinwiddie should be back, but not in a role they are in now.   Exum you can't count on his health and Dinwiddie is too hot and cold and not a great defender.   

So if we assume Kyrie and AD are off limits.  Lively is close to it.  Klay is back.   Max is a high minute bench guy.   PJ can play 3 and backup 4.   I think that leaves a guard who can create and play both with Kyrie and Max.    I think he needs to be physical and big too.   I just don't know who that player is.    

The roster is already deep.  If healthy, with AD, Lively, Gafford, & Martin available, I have no idea how you find minutes for everyone.  So maybe a 2-1 trade with a pick makes sense for this player.   I just can't identify this player.

[mvossman]

Sure, PJ could be part of the outgoing. But he doesn't have to be. Open your mind!

To me, to do the trade, I simply don't put any of PJ, Christie, or LIvely on the table - and I believe the Mavs have PLENTY of other good players at good salaries to be enough. If it isn't, I don't do the deal. I don't assume a trade gets done necessarily - the "Nico is stupid so of course he does it" is an argument I don't find persuasive.

As to the starter issue, obviously if you keep 5 starter types and add KD, someone will be asked to be the 6th man. But there will be plenty of minutes for everyone. If you keep Klay instead of PJ, it's the same issue. There's no reason it can't be PJ as 6th man, and I would choose to keep him instead of Klay since he's younger.  I don't allow PJ, Christie, or Lively to be on the table, and PHX still gets a slew of starter-caliber players (all 4 of Gafford, Martin, Marshall, Klay - unless they don't want him, like you theorize) and some useful depth (Powell, Hardy) and 2025 1st rounder will also be part of the immediate mix.

The idea that the Mavs would have 6 starter types is already an issue, as they have at least 6 and maybe 8 (!) on the roster (Lively, Gallford, AD, PJ, Christie, Matrtin, Klay, Kyrie). And Kidd may see Exum as a starter too, which means there's 9!

If the Suns have no interest in Klay, he goes to a 3rd team. There HAS TO be a 3rd team taking one or more of those players with their salary, no matter what you do, and you should be able to get some draft capital back if that player is Klay.

My mind is open.  There is not a KD trade I can see that I will be happy with because I don't think Suns do it without getting significant assets back.  If it doesn't include PJ then it almost has to include Max or the 31st (my guess is that includes at least two out the three).  I am looking at this from the Suns perspective and what I think Nico is likely to do.  If we are talking about what I think would make sense, it would not be a trade for KD, it would be building around what we currently have.  In my mind that would be a starting quality two way PG with size, whoever that might be.

[F Gump]

CHICAGO JK - That's a good analysis, but if this team is healthy, is there really a hole needing to be filled? If you count Marshall, you've identified 9 (!) valued players NOT including either Exum or SD. We badly need a "10th man" or even lower? I'm being silly, but you get the point.

I'm not convinced there's a lack of shot creation either; our mindset is used to seeing one player creating almost all of the offense, getting a shot for himself or via a flashy pass, and when we don't see that we think it's an issue. But without Luka in the mix, the attack comes from lots of places, and the ball moves. Kyrie is a big threat, and so is AD. Lots of supporting offense across the lineup.

As for what a trade might look like, in theory the Mavs could easily put together a package and trade for a player up to maybe 18-20M in salary (with Powell, Hardy, and maybe Martin or Marshall), but do they have a 20M hole? And the minutes? As much as I like the idea in theory, I just don't see it.

Gafford - Lively
AD - Martin
PJ - Marshall
Klay - Christie
Kyrie - Exum/SD

I do see the need to package several players together for one, however, and maybe take back less in salary. Assuming they keep either Exum or SD and maybe both, they have too many useful players to fit onto the roster imo. So there's that part of the equation.

[mvossman]

What I am struggling with is how this team can become a contender again.   Just guessing, but I believe Nico wants a deep and physical team.    I think we are missing at least a piece, but I am not sure what that missing piece is.   I think we can assume that AD and Kyrie are the two untouchables.   I would hope Lively is close to that, but I am not sure.   Outside of that, I think no one is off limits.   I think the Mavs are higher than most of us on Thompson and I expect he is on the roster next season.   One of Exum or Dinwiddie should be back, but not in a role they are in now.   Exum you can't count on his health and Dinwiddie is too hot and cold and not a great defender.   

So if we assume Kyrie and AD are off limits.  Lively is close to it.  Klay is back.   Max is a high minute bench guy.   PJ can play 3 and backup 4.   I think that leaves a guard who can create and play both with Kyrie and Max.    I think he needs to be physical and big too.   I just don't know who that player is.    

The roster is already deep.  If healthy, with AD, Lively, Gafford, & Martin available, I have no idea how you find minutes for everyone.  So maybe a 2-1 trade with a pick makes sense for this player.   I just can't identify this player.

There may be better options, but a guy that I think makes a lot of sense is Lonzo Ball.  He fits your description, fits the contract model they have been following and will probably be available.  His three is still rusty, but it looks like everything else is back.

[F Gump]

 In my mind that would be a starting quality two way PG with size, whoever that might be.

I think Exum fits that description basically, and see him as a good option with a chance to be here next year.

And what about something like
Hardy, Powell, 2025 1st
FOR
L Ball, future heavily-protected 1st

EDITED -- LOL - I see you had the same Ball idea, while I was replying!

[mvossman]

I think Exum fits that description basically, and see him as a good option with a chance to be here next year.

And what about something like
Hardy, Powell, 2025 1st
FOR
L Ball, future heavily-protected 1st

EDITED -- LOL - I see you had the same Ball idea, while I was replying!

I like Exum, I'm just not ready to trust him.  Between his struggles in the prior playoffs and the extensive injury history, I want him on the team but I'm not ready to count on him.

Not surprisingly, I would be totally on board with that trade.

[The Jom]

So what’s this summer’s Paul George story gonna be? An interesting fit here. More attainable than KD? Or less?

[mvossman]

So what’s this summer’s Paul George story gonna be? An interesting fit here. More attainable than KD? Or less?

He looks like he is already starting to fall off the cliff.  Personally I hope we don't make any big trades this offseason, and if we do I hope the incoming player is younger than our two stars by a significant amount.  The guys we have need to learn how to play with each other, and that can't happen if we suffer massive roster turnover during every free agency session.