Trade & FA 2024-25:

[DanSchwartzgan]

@LegionHoops
BREAKING: The Mavericks have dreams of adding Kevin Durant next to Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis.

(via @sam_amick,@davidaldridgedc,@anthonyVslater)

I’ve not really taken this very seriously as I’ve not really seen a reasonable path.  But the more it comes up, the more I wonder what I’m missing.

Spotrac has us $3 million under the first apron for 12 players next season.  So, we go over when we bring the roster up to at least 14 and over by even more if we have a draft pick or take the roster to 15.  There is also the question of what Kyrie will get after he opts out and what it costs to retain Exum with EB rights and whether you spend the TPMLE.  Depending on your assumptions, we can get to the second apron pretty quickly.

A way of getting away from the 100% trade rule at the first apron would be to have Kyrie take less salary.  I”m not saying it is likely.  Just saying it is possible.  Dirk did it and AD just gave up his trade kicker.  What you want to be able to do is use the 25% trade matching rule and fill out the roster with minimums, Exum and possibly the TPMLE.  If the outgoing is Gafford, PJ, Naji, Powell and Hardy, you are down to 8 players.  If you assume five minimums and Exum at about $5mm, you can get Irving to about $25mm on a 1+1.  You’ll be hardcapped at the first apron (again), but it is less damaging to the remaining roster.  BTW, Gafford, PJ and Naji would be a very useful package for Phoenix.  I’m not sure it will take as much draft capital as some are imagining.  At least, I hope not.

Lively
AD/OMax/Edwards
KD/Martin
KlayChristie
Kyrie/Exum

[Scott41theMavs]

@LegionHoops
BREAKING: The Mavericks have dreams of adding Kevin Durant next to Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis.

(via @sam_amick,@davidaldridgedc,@anthonyVslater)

The argument trends anti-KD, and then this, lol.

I shudder to think of watching the Mavs in '27-'28.

[Smitty]

If the Mavs made a trade for KD they would have to send out more money than they take back, otherwise they'd be hard capped at the 1st apron. The simplest trade that works is:

PJW, Klay, Gafford, Martin ($54,799,205) for Durant ($54,708,609). 

One of the Mavs players would go to a 3rd team. Maybe the Lakers want Gafford. Or Klay to the Kings (Cali connection). There are options.

That would have them needing to fill at least 4 roster spots and having ~$14m to do so. This assumes Kyrie resigns around the same number ($44M) and Powell opts in ($4M).

Kyrie | '25 FRP
Christie | Hardy
KD | Naji
AD | Omax
Lively | Powell

10 player total plus McGee is ~$194M. Second apron projection is ~$208M.

Safe to assume they will want to bring back Exum and add Edwards to the roster. Exum's cap hold is $4.1M and Edwards would be a minimum $2.1M.

Using those numbers as place holders and assuming Kyrie doesn't take less money for a longer deal. The Mavs would have ~$7.8M to add a minimum of 2 players but up to 3.

15-Man Roster

Kyrie $44M | Exum $4.1M | '25 FRP $4M
Christie $7.7M | Hardy $6M | Vet Min $2.1M
Durant $54.7M | Naji $9M | Vet Min $2.1M
Davis $54.1M | Omax $3M | Edwards $2.1M
Lively $5.2M | Powell $4M | Vet Min 2.1M

*McGee $2.2M

Total Salary: $206.4M
2nd Apron proj: $207.8M

[DallasMaverick]

@LegionHoops
BREAKING: The Mavericks have dreams of adding Kevin Durant next to Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis.

(via @sam_amick,@davidaldridgedc,@anthonyVslater)

I just can't see it.

[Chicagojk]

If the Mavs made a trade for KD they would have to send out more money than they take back, otherwise they'd be hard capped at the 1st apron. The simplest trade that works is:

PJW, Klay, Gafford, Martin ($54,799,205) for Durant ($54,708,609). 

One of the Mavs players would go to a 3rd team. Maybe the Lakers want Gafford. Or Klay to the Kings (Cali connection). There are options.

That would have them needing to fill at least 4 roster spots and having ~$14m to do so. This assumes Kyrie resigns around the same number ($44M) and Powell opts in ($4M).

Kyrie | '25 FRP
Christie | Hardy
KD | Naji
AD | Omax
Lively | Powell

10 player total plus McGee is ~$194M. Second apron projection is ~$208M.

Safe to assume they will want to bring back Exum and add Edwards to the roster. Exum's cap hold is $4.1M and Edwards would be a minimum $2.1M.

Using those numbers as place holders and assuming Kyrie doesn't take less money for a longer deal. The Mavs would have ~$7.8M to add a minimum of 2 players but up to 3.

15-Man Roster

Kyrie $44M | Exum $4.1M | '25 FRP $4M
Christie $7.7M | Hardy $6M | Vet Min $2.1M
Durant $54.7M | Naji $9M | Vet Min $2.1M
Davis $54.1M | Omax $3M | Edwards $2.1M
Lively $5.2M | Powell $4M | Vet Min 2.1M

*McGee $2.2M

Total Salary: $206.4M
2nd Apron proj: $207.8M

 lineup looks good on paper, but I jsut think that is too much for KD (picks will also need to be included).   If there was a way to hang on to PJ or Klay, than I think the Mavs would be interested.  Just don't see a 4 for 1 trade with picks being reasonable.

[mvossman]

 lineup looks good on paper, but I jsut think that is too much for KD (picks will also need to be included).   If there was a way to hang on to PJ or Klay, than I think the Mavs would be interested.  Just don't see a 4 for 1 trade with picks being reasonable.

The starting lineup looks good, but old and incredibly injury prone.  The bench looks weak, which means every injury in that starting lineup is going to be felt hard.  I give it a year before one of the main guys asks out, at which point Nico gets pennies on the dollar and the whole thing unravels.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

It is funny.  Luka is worth Cade and multiple first round picks in a trade.  Although, I wouldn't be surprised if you called Detroit and offered Luka straight up for Cade that they would turn that down.

WAY overreaction.  No way DET turns that down.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

If the Mavs made a trade for KD they would have to send out more money than they take back, otherwise they'd be hard capped at the 1st apron. The simplest trade that works is:

PJW, Klay, Gafford, Martin ($54,799,205) for Durant ($54,708,609). 

One of the Mavs players would go to a 3rd team. Maybe the Lakers want Gafford. Or Klay to the Kings (Cali connection). There are options.

That would have them needing to fill at least 4 roster spots and having ~$14m to do so. This assumes Kyrie resigns around the same number ($44M) and Powell opts in ($4M).

Kyrie | '25 FRP
Christie | Hardy
KD | Naji
AD | Omax
Lively | Powell

10 player total plus McGee is ~$194M. Second apron projection is ~$208M.

Safe to assume they will want to bring back Exum and add Edwards to the roster. Exum's cap hold is $4.1M and Edwards would be a minimum $2.1M.

Using those numbers as place holders and assuming Kyrie doesn't take less money for a longer deal. The Mavs would have ~$7.8M to add a minimum of 2 players but up to 3.

15-Man Roster

Kyrie $44M | Exum $4.1M | '25 FRP $4M
Christie $7.7M | Hardy $6M | Vet Min $2.1M
Durant $54.7M | Naji $9M | Vet Min $2.1M
Davis $54.1M | Omax $3M | Edwards $2.1M
Lively $5.2M | Powell $4M | Vet Min 2.1M

*McGee $2.2M

Total Salary: $206.4M
2nd Apron proj: $207.8M

I'm just kind of accepting that this is what they're trying to do this offseason and it will be construction similar to this with the LAL 29 and DAL 2031 pick attached (and probably a 2032 swap).  I also expect them to try to offload Hardy in this whole process by tying the Philly 2030 SRP to him which may not be enough but would help tremendously from a cap standpoint.

Do you expect Exum to not make more than his cap hold?  Won't we just enter the second apron as soon as he inks a new deal if you assume it's like 2 years for 16 mil or something like that?

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

WAY overreaction.  No way DET turns that down.

Maybe but recency bias is a hell of a drug and Cade has had a much more productive season than Luka this year.

Honestly I think Luka for Cade + stuff may have been the only trade that would have blown over pretty quickly because of all the Dallas ties.

[Smitty]

I'm just kind of accepting that this is what they're trying to do this offseason and it will be construction similar to this with the LAL 29 and DAL 2031 pick attached (and probably a 2032 swap).  I also expect them to try to offload Hardy in this whole process by tying the Philly 2030 SRP to him which may not be enough but would help tremendously from a cap standpoint.

Do you expect Exum to not make more than his cap hold?  Won't we just enter the second apron as soon as he inks a new deal if you assume it's like 2 years for 16 mil or something like that?

Couldn't agree more with the bold! It's exactly the opposite of what I would do, except the Hardy part, but I 100% think that it's Nico's plan.

As for Exum, it's hard to gauge what his value is. A of now, 4M seems fair for the oft injured, soon to be 30-year-old guard. He has a real chance to earn more in the second half of the season. Even in the scenario I laid out, the Mavs can get to about $7.5M for Exum by going with a 14-man roster. That's assuming Kyrie doesn't help them any with his year 1 number.

They can also get more flexibility with your Hardy trade.

In the end, if this is the way they go, I do expect Kyrie to work with Nico on a deal that makes it all doable.

[F Gump]

The starting lineup looks good, but old and incredibly injury prone.  The bench looks weak, which means every injury in that starting lineup is going to be felt hard.  I give it a year before one of the main guys asks out, at which point Nico gets pennies on the dollar and the whole thing unravels.

That's why I wouldn't do a deal for KD unless PJW, Lively, and Christie are off the table -- but if that limit is workable with PHX, then maybe a KD deal starts to make sense? And I would think it almost certainly includes a KD desire (almost a demand) to land in Dallas, as part of what fuels such a deal.

If they have that framework, Mavs are trading away EVERYONE else (including 2025 FRP). But I think what remains can be really good, and has some degree of depth as well. I would pencil in Edwards and Williams, who are already here, have familiarity with the system, and have shown some promise. 

Filling those remaining 6 roster slots with minimum salary players, you are likely to get some veteran ring-chasers who are willing to take a minimum salary deal and jump on the bandwagon. It's like what MIA did when they signed Bosh, Lebron, Wade and then had to build a roster around them with almost no way to spend except minimums. In this case it's starting with AD, KD, and Kyrie which are certainly a comparable "Big Three" - but the added presence of Lively, PJW, and Christie makes this bandwagon even more attractive, I would think.

C -  Lively, ________, _________
PF - AD, ________, Edwards (minimum).
SF - KD, PJW [backs up both forwards], ________
SG - Christie, ______, _______
PG - Kyrie, Exum [$7M, backs up both guards], Williams (minimum)

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Couldn't agree more with the bold! It's exactly the opposite of what I would do, except the Hardy part, but I 100% think that it's Nico's plan.

As for Exum, it's hard to gauge what his value is. A of now, 4M seems fair for the oft injured, soon to be 30-year-old guard. He has a real chance to earn more in the second half of the season. Even in the scenario I laid out, the Mavs can get to about $7.5M for Exum by going with a 14-man roster. That's assuming Kyrie doesn't help them any with his year 1 number.

They can also get more flexibility with your Hardy trade.

In the end, if this is the way they go, I do expect Kyrie to work with Nico on a deal that makes it all doable.

For sure, I might be over valuing Exum a bit considering the injury history (and his play on the biggest stage last year for that matter) but given that this is potentially his last chance to get a big contract I am positive he won't be doing any favors.  Keeping him around though is probably going to be pretty crucial whether or not they go try to get KD to be honest so it will be interesting.

Agreed on Kyrie working with Nico on this, I also expect AD waiving his kicker was his way of trying to help make all this happen as well to be honest.

In this world where I just assume a KD trade is going to happen, I would consider any sort of construction that keeps Lively, Christie and '25 a win, including any of that is a massive overpay for a 37 year old (who I honestly think is going to play til his like 41 though).

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

The fact that I'm having to think about what vet min ring chasers will be out there this summer just sucks.

[michaeltex]

That's why I wouldn't do a deal for KD unless PJW, Lively, and Christie are off the table -- but if that limit is workable with PHX, then maybe a KD deal starts to make sense? And I would think it almost certainly includes a KD desire (almost a demand) to land in Dallas, as part of what fuels such a deal.

If they have that framework, Mavs are trading away EVERYONE else (including 2025 FRP). But I think what remains can be really good, and has some degree of depth as well. I would pencil in Edwards and Williams, who are already here, have familiarity with the system, and have shown some promise. 

Filling those remaining 6 roster slots with minimum salary players, you are likely to get some veteran ring-chasers who are willing to take a minimum salary deal and jump on the bandwagon. It's like what MIA did when they signed Bosh, Lebron, Wade and then had to build a roster around them with almost no way to spend except minimums. In this case it's starting with AD, KD, and Kyrie which are certainly a comparable "Big Three" - but the added presence of Lively, PJW, and Christie makes this bandwagon even more attractive, I would think.

C -  Lively, ________, _________
PF - AD, ________, Edwards (minimum).
SF - KD, PJW [backs up both forwards], ________
SG - Christie, ______, _______
PG - Kyrie, Exum [$7M, backs up both guards], Williams (minimum)

But don't AD and KD play the same position? Do we really want KD on the perimeter trying to guard a more mobile SF? or getting switched onto a SG?

Sorry, I can see the marquee value of adding KD, but it would make for some wonky rotations and leave real vulnerability to smaller, quicker teams. Plus, isn't the  implicit assumption that decent vet mins would choose DAL over some of the other high profile teams? Isn't supported much by history.

[F Gump]

Do you expect Exum to not make more than his cap hold?  Won't we just enter the second apron as soon as he inks a new deal if you assume it's like 2 years for 16 mil or something like that?

The cap hold for Exum is really irrelevant, because the 207M-ish number under discussion would be Apron 2 hard cap that the Mavs could not exceed at any time for the 2025-26 season, no matter what, if they did a KD trade.

I know you didn't ask me, but imo Exum will land in the 6-10M range (assuming he is healthy through the end of the playoffs and continues to play like this), and it's even possible that's low. I think we'll have a better idea in a couple months when the season's over. Assuming no hiccups between now and the summer, I'm hoping a Mavs 7-8M "all we can possibly pay" offer will prove to be enough.

[LukaMVP]

KD is still a great scorer and also contributes in defense even at his age but he's not worth giving up half of our rotation guys who are competent, hardworking and paid reasonably. the supporting cast we have now isn't that easy to assemble imho.

[Knutsen]

Maybe but recency bias is a hell of a drug and Cade has had a much more productive season than Luka this year.

Honestly I think Luka for Cade + stuff may have been the only trade that would have blown over pretty quickly because of all the Dallas ties.

I think Franz Wagner and stuff for Luka would have worked as well - he‘s the real heir to Dirk and will get better each and every year.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I think it's fair to say that no one in this thread is super eager to try to break the rest of the team up for KD. Just a lot of folks seeing the writing on the wall and discussing the logistics of how it may happen.

[david75090]

KD only plays one end the court. You can't parrot "defense wins championships" and then trade for a highly paid, aging, one dimensional, oft-injured player. Yeah, KD is great. On offense. When he's playing. Not counting the players it would cost in trade. No thanks.

[Chicagojk]

I thought KD would be a target at the trade deadline at some point. Although after thinking about it and what it will cost, I am thinking that it won't happen. I believe both Gafford and PJ would HAVE to be included in any trade with all our picks to get PHX attention. Knowing it will take a lot more, makes me think it is a pipedream.

If you take the Luka mess away for a moment, you can see the team they are looking to build. With the age and play style, it needs to be a deep team. big guys inside and length on the wings. I really think they need to prioritze a deep roster and not cheap minimum type guys.

The issue, even if you think there is a path to contention, the roster is not there yet. I am having trouble to find that last guy who can be a third best player on a championship team. Ideally, we would have debates if the third best player is player X, Lively or PJ.