Trade & FA 2024-25:

[Chicagojk]

@esidery
After holding out for two first-round picks last year for Kyle Kuzma, the Wizards will now have a difficult time even receiving one in a trade.

With Kuzma going through a career-worst stretch making $23.5 million, there’s a strong possibility he stays in Washington all season

If that is true, they will probably find some suitors.   He could be a fall back option for Sacramentio.   They are playing better and really have nothing to lose.  Not a contender but want to win.   If it only takes some salaries and some second round picks, that would be a pretty decent gamble.

[Jym]

@esidery
After holding out for two first-round picks last year for Kyle Kuzma, the Wizards will now have a difficult time even receiving one in a trade.

With Kuzma going through a career-worst stretch making $23.5 million, there’s a strong possibility he stays in Washington all season

so glad he didn't want to waive his trade kicker

[Chicagojk]

Brown could be a great buyout candidate, but not if you have to move any value from the roster.

I just don't see the fit for him, I don't think.   Unless you can mix and match with Luka at PF type lineup.

Can Denver sign him if released?  If so, that should be the strong favorite.

[SleepingHero]

I wonder, a 2 for 1 with Maxi+Gafford for someone making ~22.5 mil should carve out just enough space for a vet min deal on a buyout.


Cam Johnson fits that.

The question is, do you trade both Maxi and Gafford for Johnson and Bruce Brown? Does that make you better?

Losing Gafford would be huge tbh.

[SleepingHero]

I just don't see the fit for him, I don't think.   Unless you can mix and match with Luka at PF type lineup.

Can Denver sign him if released?  If so, that should be the strong favorite.

No team over the 1st or 2nd apron can sign a buyout player that was making more than the NT-MLE (12.9 for this year). So Bruce Brown cannot sign with Denver. 

In addition, he cannot sign with Phoenix, Minnesota, Boston, Milwaukee, New York, Miami, Lakers, and Philly.

[Chicagojk]

I wonder, a 2 for 1 with Maxi+Gafford for someone making ~22.5 mil should carve out just enough space for a vet min deal on a buyout.


Cam Johnson fits that.

The question is, do you trade both Maxi and Gafford for Johnson and Bruce Brown? Does that make you better?

Losing Gafford would be huge tbh.

I think for the Nets, Gafford and Maxi are just salary.  They would want at least one first and probably a young player, I think.   I think Johnson is going to have a lot of suitors.

One name that has perked up in my head recently is Marcus Smart.   If Memphis makes a trade for a Cam Johnson type player, I wonder if Dallas could be a third in that trade.  It would probably take our first, but I am not sure Brooklyn wants more firsts in this draft.   I am not even certain Smart is still good, but I am just looking for someone who causes fits for other teams.

[Chicagojk]

No team over the 1st or 2nd apron can sign a buyout player that was making more than the NT-MLE (12.9 for this year). So Bruce Brown cannot sign with Denver. 

In addition, he cannot sign with Phoenix, Minnesota, Boston, Milwaukee, New York, Miami, Lakers, and Philly.

Thanks, I thought I read where they were below.   My bad.

[Chicagojk]

Thanks, I thought I read where they were below.   My bad.

It was Jake Fischer

: https://open.substack.com/pub/marcstein/p/jake-fischer-latest-lots-more-of?r=nuq3a&utm_medium=ios

If no trade materializes involving Brown, he would surely be in great demand as a buyout candidate.

The Lakers were a leading destination for Brown two summers ago, sources said, before Brown secured his stunning two-year, $45 million balloon contract from the Pacers.

Another team, fittingly, to keep in mind for Brown on the buyout market — if it gets that far — would be Denver. The Nuggets, sources say, would love a reunion with the veteran swingman affectionately known as Brucey B.

Bolstering Nikola Jokić's supporting cast via the buyout market might prove to be the Nuggets' eventual best option, since ownership would prefer not to surrender Michael Porter Jr. in a trade and given Denver's longstanding difficulties in trying to find a trade partner willing to absorb Zeke Nnaji’s four-year, $32 million contract.

Of course, to even have a shot at Brown, Denver would still have to make some cost-cutting moves on the trade front in order to get under the first apron for luxury tax teams.

Apron teams cannot sign any player who is bought out of a contract that pays more than the league average of $12.4 million. So Brown, in the Nuggets' current state, wouldn't be available to Denver even if he made it to free agency and both sides were eager for a reunion. Sources say that the Nuggets are indeed weighing whether trying to trade out of apron territory to create pathways to buyout market candidates would be a worthwhile endeavor.

[mvossman]

I wonder, a 2 for 1 with Maxi+Gafford for someone making ~22.5 mil should carve out just enough space for a vet min deal on a buyout.


Cam Johnson fits that.

The question is, do you trade both Maxi and Gafford for Johnson and Bruce Brown? Does that make you better?

Losing Gafford would be huge tbh.

That would make you crazy thin at center and crazy clogged at wing.  I think if you are actually sending those two out you need to have a quality 4/5 coming back.  I don't see this happening at TDL.  Much more likely in offseason.

[SleepingHero]

I think for the Nets, Gafford and Maxi are just salary.  They would want at least one first and probably a young player, I think.   I think Johnson is going to have a lot of suitors.

One name that has perked up in my head recently is Marcus Smart.   If Memphis makes a trade for a Cam Johnson type player, I wonder if Dallas could be a third in that trade.  It would probably take our first, but I am not sure Brooklyn wants more firsts in this draft.   I am not even certain Smart is still good, but I am just looking for someone who causes fits for other teams.

I was just trying to throw out the general frame work of the Mavs sending out Maxi+Gafford, and getting back Cam.

I think plenty of teams would be happy to be the 3rd team getting Gafford in this hypothetical and could pony up guys that are more attractive to the Nets. 

Either way, just as a hypothetical, does that even make the Mavs better? We all of a sudden are back to Powell as our main backup center. Is Cam Johnson worth that?


And with Marcus Smart. I’ve always really liked him, but I just don’t see how he fits anywhere on the roster. 6’3 guard that can’t really shoot. He’s a great defender but he’d also somehow cost Gafford+Maxi. Just don’t see it.

[SleepingHero]

That would make you crazy thin at center and crazy clogged at wing.  I think if you are actually sending those two out you need to have a quality 4/5 coming back.  I don't see this happening at TDL.  Much more likely in offseason.

That’s my main reservation too. But we could hypothetically add a guy like Hardy and get back a vet min center. Or heck even trade Naji for a guy like Vanaciunas who is supposed to be relatively cheap.

I’m just thinking out loud here and wondering if that shuffle is worth it.

Maxi+Hardy+Gafford out, Johnson+Brown+Vet min center in.

[mvossman]

That’s my main reservation too. But we could hypothetically add a guy like Hardy and get back a vet min center. Or heck even trade Naji for a guy like Vanaciunas who is supposed to be relatively cheap.

I’m just thinking out loud here and wondering if that shuffle is worth it.

Maxi+Hardy+Gafford out, Johnson+Brown+Vet min center in.

I question whether Brown is worth the effort.  Its been a while since he has provided value on the court.  That contract made him a lot of money, but it did not do his career any favors.

[Chicagojk]

Nevermind it is first round picks.


So who is the target?  Just a few days ago the suns guy said the suns would only trade 31 for a legit upgrade.  Now they trade it for seconds.  They must have something lined up.  I do have to give them credit, they are generative.  Just depressing they are stuck as a .500 team and can’t get out of it.

The Phoenix Suns are trading their 2031 first-rounder to the Utah Jazz for three first-round picks, sources tell ESPN. The Suns are acquiring the least favorable firsts in 2025 of Cleveland/Minnesota, 2027 of Cleveland/Minnesota/Utah and 2029 of Cleveland/Minnesota/Utah.

[Chicagojk]

I don’t have time to read but this is one of the more creative trades I can remember. Will it matter? Probably not but still

[Knutsen]

I don’t have time to read but this is one of the more creative trades I can remember.  Will it matter?  Probably not but still

Utah doing the right thing and trading quantity for quality in their picks. I‘m looking for Oklahoma doing the same and maybe transfer some of their draft capital to the future, there’s no way they can roster so many talented young players in their next years. And they don’t need an aging superstar to win it all.

[Chicagojk]

Utah doing the right thing and trading quantity for quality in their picks. I‘m looking for Oklahoma doing the same and maybe transfer some of their draft capital to the future, there’s no way they can roster so many talented young players in their next years. And they don’t need an aging superstar to win it all.

Yeah, that is absolutely what Presti will do if he can find a deal like this.  What a goldmine that could be for them.    

It sounds like this will be for Butler.   I got to give teh Suns credit they have been able to do more than I thought they were going to be able to do entering last offseason.  It just hasn't impacted winning though.

I read it could be a 4 team trade for Butler.  Does Beal go to MIL?   Seems sort of strange to me.

[Chicagojk]

I saw that it could be a four or more team trade for Butler. Someone has to include Chicago in the trade. They get confused and will wind up giving up a first without getting anything back

[Mavs2021]

Nevermind it is first round picks.


So who is the target?  Just a few days ago the suns guy said the suns would only trade 31 for a legit upgrade.  Now they trade it for seconds.  They must have something lined up.  I do have to give them credit, they are generative.  Just depressing they are stuck as a .500 team and can’t get out of it.

The Phoenix Suns are trading their 2031 first-rounder to the Utah Jazz for three first-round picks, sources tell ESPN. The Suns are acquiring the least favorable firsts in 2025 of Cleveland/Minnesota, 2027 of Cleveland/Minnesota/Utah and 2029 of Cleveland/Minnesota/Utah.

So that´s a high lottery pick in 2031, cause Phoenix has no picks left until then. In 2031 Durant and Butler are retired, Booker is 35. Dunn and Ighodaro are your franchise. Meanwhile you get the 29th/30th pick in 2025 guaranteed, and two non-lottery picks. Even in 2029 Mitchell is just 32, Allen 30, Garland 28, Mobley 27 playing in the shitty East. Minnesota might turn bad with just Edwards 27 and McDaniels 28 in a tough conference and a historically poorly run franchise. Then you still count on Utah being bad in 2029, too.

Not even sure Miami will take Beal and these three picks as enough compensation. LOL.

[F Gump]

Picks and what value they carry is always fluid, with the biggest issue being that different picks carry more perceived value for one team than another. Teams want 1sts in a trade, but they may be way better on paper than in reality, and each has different ways of how they assess reality.

Take OKC for example. It's an interesting exercise to look at their list of future picks,and compare them to the team they come from and how that's team's future appears. When you do, there's a very reasonable chance that among all of that number, they won't get a single top 10 pick, with the vast majority being in the 20s. Quantity? Yes. Quality? Not so much.

In this situation, it's likely that MIA (or someone else) is looking for 2025-26-27 picks, not one all the way out in 2031 whose value might be great but then again might not be turn out to be as good as you had planned for (because teams who don't have their own pick don't tank at all, no matter what). If they need help NOW, a 2031 pick doesn't give them what they need. Multiple picks like 2025 and 2027 have way more value in that case.

[Knutsen]

Picks and what value they carry is always fluid, with the biggest issue being that different picks carry more perceived value for one team than another. Teams want 1sts in a trade, but they may be way better on paper than in reality, and each has different ways of how they assess reality.

Take OKC for example. It's an interesting exercise to look at their list of future picks,and compare them to the team they come from and how that's team's future appears. When you do, there's a very reasonable chance that among all of that number, they won't get a single top 10 pick, with the vast majority being in the 20s. Quantity? Yes. Quality? Not so much.

In this situation, it's likely that MIA (or someone else) is looking for 2025-26-27 picks, not one all the way out in 2031 whose value might be great but then again might not be turn out to be as good as you had planned for (because teams who don't have their own pick don't tank at all, no matter what). If they need help NOW, a 2031 pick doesn't give them what they need. Multiple picks like 2025 and 2027 have way more value in that case.

I completely agree. Then there’s teams who have a knack for drafting a special kind of players that completely fit in their team, culture and system perfectly but wouldn’t perform that way in most other places and therefore aren’t high on the draft boards. 

For those teams a pick in the twenties can almost have the same subjective value than a top 10 pick - and Miami ist definitely one of those teams, along with Memphis for example.