Trade & FA 2024-25:

[Mavs2021]

That lineup is a spacing nightmare.  He is a way bigger injury risk and worse fit that KP was.  This is a contending team with limited assets.  I can't imagine it would make sense to make a huge gamble like this, especially when the last time we made a similar gamble (an injury riddled potential headcase in a shitshow org) it failed utterly.

Well the counter arguments I´d have are that 

1) I never rated Porzingis as highly as Zion. I think a healthy Zion is easily a top 10 player in the league.
2) Zion´s contract already has injury insurance out-clauses that Porzingis was not willing to accept, when he signed his 5 year max deal (#ClassicCuban)
3) Zion makes 126M over the next three years. That is actually cheap from a talent perspective (injury risk aside for a moment). For example Anunoby makes the same money for the next three seasons. Any normal star will make $60M+ annually on his next contract.
4) Looking at how much players like Durant, Bridges cost recently it will be difficult to find that #2 option to go alongside Luka for less than three first round picks. 
5) Are we williing to bet on the draft the next two years and an accelerated development of that rookie to #2 option.
6) Obviously this would all require a very good physical and a very good talk with Zion to get into his head and mindset before you pull the trigger.

[KillerLeft]

Well the counter arguments I´d have are that 

1) I never rated Porzingis as highly as Zion. I think a healthy Zion is easily a top 10 player in the league.
2) Zion´s contract already has injury insurance out-clauses that Porzingis was not willing to accept, when he signed his 5 year max deal (#ClassicCuban)
3) Zion makes 126M over the next three years. That is actually cheap from a talent perspective (injury risk aside for a moment). For example Anunoby makes the same money for the next three seasons. Any normal star will make $60M+ annually on his next contract.
4) Looking at how much players like Durant, Bridges cost recently it will be difficult to find that #2 option to go alongside Luka for less than three first round picks. 
5) Are we williing to bet on the draft the next two years and an accelerated development of that rookie to #2 option.
6) Obviously this would all require a very good physical and a very good talk with Zion to get into his head and mindset before you pull the trigger.

For me, it's two different conversations. The first is the one you're having, about the cost/benefit analysis of Zion's talent, price, the likelihood he'll be healthy, whatever. All that. I guess I'm with you there in that I think he might still represent opportunity for someone to land a big talent more cheaply than usual. It would be risky, but enticing. 

But the other conversation is: assuming the best case scenario in conversation 1, would Zion and Luka be a fit? I say no, because he's not a screen setter, really, not a rim runner, really, and has basically proven that he's not a 5, which is unfortunate, because that makes him maybe the hardest type of 4 to build around in the sport right now. He can't shoot from outside. In fact, he has very little off-ball utility at all. He's useful with the ball in his hands, attacking downhill. He doesn't fit into most teams' plans the same way Julius Randle doesn't. You'd have to build around him, not add him to a system that's already working, and I feel like he and Luka is one of the clunkiest fits there could possibly be. Just my opinion.

[mvossman]

Well the counter arguments I´d have are that 

1) I never rated Porzingis as highly as Zion. I think a healthy Zion is easily a top 10 player in the league.
2) Zion´s contract already has injury insurance out-clauses that Porzingis was not willing to accept, when he signed his 5 year max deal (#ClassicCuban)
3) Zion makes 126M over the next three years. That is actually cheap from a talent perspective (injury risk aside for a moment). For example Anunoby makes the same money for the next three seasons. Any normal star will make $60M+ annually on his next contract.
4) Looking at how much players like Durant, Bridges cost recently it will be difficult to find that #2 option to go alongside Luka for less than three first round picks. 
5) Are we williing to bet on the draft the next two years and an accelerated development of that rookie to #2 option.
6) Obviously this would all require a very good physical and a very good talk with Zion to get into his head and mindset before you pull the trigger.

I don't think any of this compensates for the massive risk or the terrible fit.  We don't need a player of Durrant caliber and Bridges was a massive overpay.  We may not need that replacement for a while anyways.  Kyrie is still playing at an elite level. 

What is the ramification of the injury out clause?  I'm sure it doesn't impact the assets and players you gave up to trade for him.  Does it impact the cap?  What value does that insurance have to future team building?

[Mavs2021]

For me, it's two different conversations. The first is the one you're having, about the cost/benefit analysis of Zion's talent, price, the likelihood he'll be healthy, whatever. All that. I guess I'm with you there in that I think he might still represent opportunity for someone to land a big talent more cheaply than usual. It would be risky, but enticing. 

But the other conversation is: assuming the best case scenario in conversation 1, would Zion and Luka be a fit? I say no, because he's not a screen setter, really, not a rim runner, really, and has basically proven that he's not a 5, which is unfortunate, because that makes him maybe the hardest type of 4 to build around in the sport right now. He can't shoot from outside. In fact, he has very little off-ball utility at all. He's useful with the ball in his hands, attacking downhill. He doesn't fit into most teams' plans the same way Julius Randle doesn't. You'd have to build around him, not add him to a system that's already working, and I feel like he and Luka is one of the clunkiest fits there could possibly be. Just my opinion.

As President of the Randle fan club, I´d dispute that he´s a poor fit. Also he just got traded for KAT, partly cause he´s a huge talent and partly cause KAT is making 60M a year, which kind of makes two of my points (possible re-trade value of Zion and good contract in comparison to future contracts). Also Wolves are already back up to tied 6th, despite DDV playing like crap, so much like the Gobert trade people might have been a bit premature to write them off. 

As for Zion has proven what he is. That´s also easily disputed, which obviously hurts my case big time: he has played a ridiculously low 160 games in five years. No way that is enough to judge the ceiling or the ability to adapt for a young player. If we can get him to play 55-60 games for each of the next two seasons some team would easily give you the same re-trade value (of two 1sts), as he´d still only be 26. 

Of course if he does not, you basically have to waive him, at which point the biggest problem will be that it´s unlikely to create enough capspace to outright sign the 2nd star. That obviously would largely depend on how well you massage your other cap, e.g. how much will it cost to re-sign PJ Washington and Lively.

If I was a team sitting on a lot of picks like Utah or some shitty East team, I would not hesitate to try this. For the Mavs I get that the risks are much bigger.
Though the last risky one turned out better than anyone (me included) could have expected with Kyrie. 

Maybe one of the reasons is that Nico is a better judge of character than Cuban was with Odom, Rondo or Porzingis. I somewhat doubt that Odom would have slipped the home sickness and cocaine addiction past Nico in an evaluation. So that would at least give some more confidence, if Nico approved a Zion trade. Or he´d nix it, cause Zion comes from the Darko school of hating basketball, only that he does not love Orange Juice like Darko, but French Fries instead.

[SleepingHero]

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...atch-feb-6

Something interesting, ESPN confirmed here that the Mavs had a deal in place with MIL to send Grand Williams to the Bucks and the Mavs received Bobby Portis.

It was set to go through until MIL backed out and the Mavs moved to Charlotte.

[SleepingHero]

Some more Zion rumors:

Andy
@APH00PS
If the New Orleans Pelicans trade Zion Williamson, they could receive expiring contracts and “perhaps” a future first-round pick, per @BobbyMarks42.

[SleepingHero]

From that ESPN Article:

Zion:

As Charania reported last week, the Pelicans have no desire to waive Williamson despite an injury-marred career. Williamson has played more than 60 games in two out of his first five seasons and is currently out because of a left hamstring strain.
Should New Orleans explore the trade market for Williamson and build around Ingram? The question is valid, especially if the Pelicans are tired of regularly seeing Williamson's name on the injury report. The realization comes with New Orleans needing Williamson to be available if it wants to maximize his value on the court or in a trade.


Butler:
Butler's market in free agency could be close to non-existent. Out of the teams with projected cap space, only the rebuilding Nets have more than $40 million. Butler could opt-in to his contract in the offseason and ask to be traded, but that would require cooperation from the Heat.

Can the Heat move off of Butler but also remain a playoff team while regaining future financial flexibility? Because of his high salary, finding a trade partner presents a problem. For example, luxury tax teams such as the Warriors and Dallas Mavericks would need to trade a quarter of their roster to match salaries. The Houston Rockets, on the other end, would make the most sense because they have the contracts (Dillon Brooks and salary fillers), first-round capital and are well below the apron.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...atch-feb-6

Something interesting, ESPN confirmed here that the Mavs had a deal in place with MIL to send Grand Williams to the Bucks and the Mavs received Bobby Portis.

It was set to go through until MIL backed out and the Mavs moved to Charlotte.

Interesting.. I wonder what made them back out? Portis would be better than PJ IMO. It worked out either way as it sits now however.

[SleepingHero]

Interesting.. I wonder what made them back out?  Portis would be better than PJ IMO. It worked out either way as it sits now however.

I think the Bucks thought they could do better than Williams. 

And now I'm wondering if any future trade for the Mavs, should we be focused on Portis scenarios? When Nico targets a guy, he usually doesn't move on from him. 

Portis as a Maxi replacement makes sense.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I think the Bucks thought they could do better than Williams. 

And now I'm wondering if any future trade for the Mavs, should we be focused on Portis scenarios? When Nico targets a guy, he usually doesn't move on from him. 

Portis as a Maxi replacement makes sense.

I think they'll back off for now. The Bucks are playing a lot better.  But he would be the perfect Maxi replacement at the 4 or 5. I've always like his game.

[Mavs2021]

Some more Zion rumors:

Andy
@APH00PS
If the New Orleans Pelicans trade Zion Williamson, they could receive expiring contracts and “perhaps” a future first-round pick, per @BobbyMarks42.

If his value is that far down, that means he´s really messed up physically and/or mentally. Cause you can´t tell me Poeltl/Olynyk +1st or Collins/Eubanks + 1st is not a worthy gamble. Or for a shitshow like Washington to take Zion for Kuzma/Bagley III + 1st.

Looking at the Blazers and the Pelicans desire to find a center: Zion for Ayton, who says no?

[KillerLeft]

Some more Zion rumors:

Andy
@APH00PS
If the New Orleans Pelicans trade Zion Williamson, they could receive expiring contracts and “perhaps” a future first-round pick, per @BobbyMarks42.

While I don't like him (at all) for the Mavs, if this price is really this low Mavs2021 has good point, at least for some team. I can't imagine New Orleans wouldn't rather just keep hoping until Zion's current contract expires, honestly, but sometimes you just need to pull the plug.

[SamStetz]

Interesting.. I wonder what made them back out?  Portis would be better than PJ IMO. It worked out either way as it sits now however.

It’s possible Portis said something, since this was his reaction to those rumors. 

https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/1779918619092377734

[KillerLeft]

I think the Bucks thought they could do better than Williams. 

And now I'm wondering if any future trade for the Mavs, should we be focused on Portis scenarios? When Nico targets a guy, he usually doesn't move on from him. 

Well, except this context makes it seem like they were looking at Portis for the job they gave to PJW, which means they probably have moved on, yeah? And, thank goodness MIL backed out of that one!!!!

[KillerLeft]

Looking at the Blazers and the Pelicans desire to find a center: Zion for Ayton, who says no?

As much as I can't stand Ayton, at least you know what you're getting, for the most part. Still, this is the right type of team to consider. If they also move Grant, I could see it.

[KillerLeft]

Well, except this context makes it seem like they were looking at Portis for the job they gave to PJW, which means they probably have moved on, yeah? And, thank goodness MIL backed out of that one!!!!

I think it also speaks to how badly the Mavs wanted rid of Grant Williams, basically right away.

[Mavs2021]

I think it also speaks to how badly the Mavs wanted rid of Grant Williams, basically right away.

Yeah maybe I should not be too high on Nico´s character evaluations, cause of this one.

[KillerLeft]

Yeah maybe I should not be too high on Nico´s character evaluations, cause of this one.

For sure (I was wrong about Grant Williams, too). And, just saying, but this reporting makes it seem like Dallas preferred Portis over PJW. Now, I'm a Portis fan, so no shade at him, and maybe there was a longterm financial planning aspect to their thinking, but my goodness, where would this team be with Portis instead of PJ? That would've been a tough blow, imho.

[F Gump]

Various comments:
1 The "non-guarantee" aspect of Zion's contract is close to meaningless. To save any money, you have to waive him, so it probably takes a career-ending injury before that happens. You can't get him at a discount financially with the NG aspect. If you don't see $37M and up of on-court value, you don't trade for him, and that's hard to see when you factor in how few games he plays and how limited his contribution is, along with giving up the mass of talent it takes to trade-match.
2 I have been positively amazed at PJW's ability and fit in Dallas. I expected far less.
3 I would think Portis would have been Mavs' target to be another big (iow instead of Gafford), with the intent that he would be similar to Maxi in his role. If that deal had gone through (with GW to MIL), we don't know if it would have cost any draft capital, nor whether they would have gone on to add a 2nd player, but imo if they had, imo that other trade would have more likely been PJW not Gafford because of where Portis plays.
4 I would still love to see Portis-to-Dallas, which would take Maxi outgoing somehow (both payroll and minutes considerations), which obviously isn't doable as a simple one-for-one. But in the summer MIL might consider an expiring Maxi contract over a new deal for Portis. With Portis on an expiring right now, it probably doesn't work without an extension attached, or until a summer sign-and-trade. Another avenue might be a 3-way with Gafford outbound instead of Maxi (I don't see Gafford as a MIL fit).

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery
@esidery
The Hawks are canvassing the trade market utilizing Clint Capela’s $22.3 million expiring contract for a rotational upgrade.

Atlanta is in a position to become buyers only 2.5 games out of the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.