Trade & FA 2024-25:

[mvossman]

Dameris has a new piece on the team in D Magazine. https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2024/07...offseason/ 

He's basically going through various statements Nico has made and showing how his vision has played out.  Here is a line I thought was interesting:

“We’re built now with our core for the next three playoffs” – June 14, 2024

Notice the date (pre the offseason acquisitions).  I'm not sure that was true when he said it or now for that matter.  There is some business to be done.  But, there is a strong young core supplemented by two aging stars who should be here for the next three playoff runs.  Here is what we have locked down beyond our three FA guards next summer in Grimes, Hardy and Exum: 

Luka      Luka     P/O
Kyrie      P/O
Klay       Klay      Klay
PJW       PJW
Lively     Lively    Lively

Naji       Naji       Naji
OMax    OMax     OMax
Maxi      Maxi
Gafford  Gafford

Luka foregoing his 26/27 PO and extending is a no brainer.

Kyrie is more interesting.  I presume he will also forego his PO for 25/26 and replace it with something with additional years.  Kyrie's willingness to take about $7mm less than his max last summer was a critical element to the flexibility required to accomplish other roster building priorities last season and this season.  It also established what is turning into a trend for 30+ second stars.   Look at Harden 2/$70 or DeRozan.  The Kings basically put $10mm of additional money in the third year of DeRozan's deal so that he's either 3/$76 or 2/$60.  

I thought what Sacramento did was clever.  I could see Kyrie doing something similar.  Add years, but do it at a discount to his $40mm number.  Teams can't just give this class of player the same money as Luka/SGA/Tatum any more and finding creative ways to make it work is critical.  We talked for months about the benefits of Kyrie taking less than his full Max and then Nico actually pulled it off.  The trick with Kyrie's extension will be getting this right again.

The next thing I notice is that PJ and Gafford will be UFA's after two more seasons.  They can be extended starting next summer and running through 6/30/26.  PJ's current contract slots in well with what we are seeing lots of 'good starter' types getting.  I think extending him in that range is the smart play.  Gafford might be more challenging.  He's paid really well for a back-up and Lively's big money will kick in the next summer after Gafford's UFA summer.  I could see him trying for starter money somewhere else.  I could also see us trying to save a few dollars at the backup center spot (or at the very least delaying the extension decision). 

Finally, we don't have a backup guard past next season.  We have three that will be free in Exum (UFA w/EB rights) and Grimes/Hardy (both RFA).  We also have rumors we are sniffing around players who could be our third PG.  That makes sense to me.  If your bench is Gafford, Maxi, Naji and Grimes, the thing you are missing is ball-handling.  If you look at backup guards playing with Kyrie and Klay, Grimes makes good sense.  Hardy doesn't really.  He's a self creator and threw a few nice lobs and hit his 3's in the playoffs.  But, Dallas gets crushed when he is in the game.  He's one of the few players whose numbers declined after the TDL.  The D is a negative, but the surprising thing is how bad the O is when he's playing.  It is fair to point out that he doesn't get much time with Luka, but I'm not sure where his minutes will come from when we are at full strength.  The thing is, I'm not in love with the FA point guards (Smith, Jones and Fultz).  Is any of them better than Exum?  So, I'm not in a hurry to do something just to do something.  This hole could also be filled in the 2025 draft.  

Looking forward, if you want to add someone making more than about $4mm (now) or $5mm (next summer), it probably means sending out Maxi.  They need to avoid doing things that will hard-cap them at the first apron next summer as retaining players will likely take them over the first apron.  I don't know how much longer Maxi will hold off OMax, but I'm probably not willing to trade Maxi and count on OMax in a deep playoff run quite yet.  Can Naji back up the 3 and the 4 in the playoffs?   But next summer, between expiring Maxi, the 2025 pick and S&T Hardy, you have some things to work with (even if it is just filling the backup guard role).  Yes, you could do something related to 2025, Maxi and Hardy now or at the TDL.  But the first apron ties your hands.  There is greater flexibility next summer if you can avoid hard cap issues like incoming S&T's or taking back more money than you send out.

Good stuff.  I could see a significant restructuring of the big rotation next offseason.  Gafford, Maxi and Powell will all be expiring and together nearly 30 mil.  You could make an argument for sending all of them out replacing Maxi with Omax, Gafford with quality backup making 5-8 and Powell with a vet min.

[SleepingHero]

Showing my ignorance here...

Does DAL have bird rights for PJW and Gafford?

Yes they will have bird rights for both of them.

[michaeltex]

I think Gafford, as important as he was to the post-TDL turnaround, will be under some scrutiny this season to see just where his ceiling is. Consensus is that Lively has a bright future where you will see future articles listing him much higher in a "re-draft" fantasy. Gaff seemed to hit a wall on effectiveness sometimes. His game is strong, at the rim, but non-existent just one or two steps away, plus FTs are always an adventure. Defensively, he works well with the team, but an opposing 5 with more range will be a challenge. As will guarding down after switches.

Maybe he's invested enough to work on closing the gaps this summer and both he and DL will be bright spots next season. But the MBT will certainly be evaluating his long term fit and the associated compensation vs alternatives.

[Winter]

I think Gafford, as important as he was to the post-TDL turnaround, will be under some scrutiny this season to see just where his ceiling is. Consensus is that Lively has a bright future where you will see future articles listing him much higher in a "re-draft" fantasy. Gaff seemed to hit a wall on effectiveness sometimes. His game is strong, at the rim, but non-existent just one or two steps away, plus FTs are always an adventure. Defensively, he works well with the team, but an opposing 5 with more range will be a challenge. As will guarding down after switches.

Maybe he's invested enough to work on closing the gaps this summer and both he and DL will be bright spots next season. But the MBT will certainly be evaluating his long term fit and the associated compensation vs alternatives.

While I think all of this is true, I'm not sure we are appreciating what we have in these two centers. I just don't believe, based on what I've seen, that we can improve our center position much on the open market to any significant extent. 

It's entirely possible that Gafford's asking price may eventually be too much for us, but we are currently in possession of probably the best tandem of players for the Dallas Mavericks at any one position. It's truly a luxury considering where we were just over a year ago.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Ingram has "buyer beware" all over him.  I can't see a team extending him at big $.  He's definitely in decline.

CLE is probably the best fit, but not at the price of J.Allen.  IMO, J.Allen's contract is the league's best veteran value.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Re: Gafford, I'd like one more year of his platooning with Lively. Sophomore slump is normally a real thing. Next summer that expiring contract with his production will be worth a ton.

[mvossman]

While I think all of this is true, I'm not sure we are appreciating what we have in these two centers. I just don't believe, based on what I've seen, that we can improve our center position much on the open market to any significant extent. 

It's entirely possible that Gafford's asking price may eventually be too much for us, but we are currently in possession of probably the best tandem of players for the Dallas Mavericks at any one position. It's truly a luxury considering where we were just over a year ago.

It won’t be about improving it. It will be about approximating it while diverting assets to more needed areas (like third creator).

[Chicagojk]

While I think all of this is true, I'm not sure we are appreciating what we have in these two centers. I just don't believe, based on what I've seen, that we can improve our center position much on the open market to any significant extent. 

It's entirely possible that Gafford's asking price may eventually be too much for us, but we are currently in possession of probably the best tandem of players for the Dallas Mavericks at any one position. It's truly a luxury considering where we were just over a year ago.

Nice thoughts.  We need to remember this was Gafford's first run in the playoffs (several other guys first runs too).  I would label his playoffs some really good, some ok and some not good.    We will see how he responds as he gets more playoff runs.

For the regular season though, our center combination was a home run.   Some thought Mavs going big was the wrong answer.   After seeing the run they had, I don't know how you can say they are not a great pairing.  We will see if that continues.   I think Gafford is a backup center.   If we can get him in the 15-18 million dollar range or so moving forward, I think that is a good number.  Still plenty of time to see where we are in two years though.  

I hope next year, we see a similar rotation pattern with Gafford and Lively.  I hope as the year goes on and later in the season, that Lively slowly takes more minutes and is close to a 30 minute a game player in the playoffs.

[Chicagojk]

seeing the 25 and 26 drafts are suppose to be loaded (time will tell), we should be really careful of protecting our picks if there is not a clear upgrade. Even a pick in the 20's is valuable in a deep draft. Heck find a few of those guys in the 23 draft and you find nic, young cheap talent. Or maybe you can trade your pick in 25 for a future pick.

[mvossman]

Nice thoughts.  We need to remember this was Gafford's first run in the playoffs (several other guys first runs too).  I would label his playoffs some really good, some ok and some not good.    We will see how he responds as he gets more playoff runs.

For the regular season though, our center combination was a home run.   Some thought Mavs going big was the wrong answer.   After seeing the run they had, I don't know how you can say they are not a great pairing.  We will see if that continues.   I think Gafford is a backup center.   If we can get him in the 15-18 million dollar range or so moving forward, I think that is a good number.  Still plenty of time to see where we are in two years though.  

I hope next year, we see a similar rotation pattern with Gafford and Lively.  I hope as the year goes on and later in the season, that Lively slowly takes more minutes and is close to a 30 minute a game player in the playoffs.

If Lively is a starting center playing 30 minutes a game (which I think is how it will play out) then spending 15-18 mil on a backup center playing less than 20 minutes a game is a massive overpay.  You can find guys for a lot less money that can approximate Gafford when they only have to be on the court 15 minutes a game against second units.

[Chicagojk]

If Lively is a starting center playing 30 minutes a game (which I think is how it will play out) then spending 15-18 mil on a backup center playing less than 20 minutes a game is a massive overpay.  You can find guys for a lot less money that can approximate Gafford when they only have to be on the court 15 minutes a game against second units.

That is a good point and may be where we wind up in two years. I just think that position is a lot of wear and tear.  You are driving hard to the basket and jumping high.  A lot of potential injuries there.  I think having two guys to man that spot is smart.  Playoffs may be a different animal.  lively may be too good eventually to share minutes.  We have time to see how it plays out though.

[RGP1981]

Good stuff.  I could see a significant restructuring of the big rotation next offseason.  Gafford, Maxi and Powell will all be expiring and together nearly 30 mil.  You could make an argument for sending all of them out replacing Maxi with Omax, Gafford with quality backup making 5-8 and Powell with a vet min.

Well, you're right, an argument could be made for doing that. An argument could be made for anything though, really, but I don't think this would be a good idea. Doing this would almost feel like winning the 2011 ring with Tyson and then sending him out soon after.

And the Mavs NEED to get rid of Dwight Powell before anyone else. For Vet-Min replacements, they could replace Dwight with a bigger body C to battle against Jokic, Embiid types... or a longer C to use against Wemby in the future... instead of keeping Dwight around to wave his pom-poms.

[mvossman]

That is a good point and may be where we wind up in two years. I just think that position is a lot of wear and tear.  You are driving hard to the basket and jumping high.  A lot of potential injuries there.  I think having two guys to man that spot is smart.  Playoffs may be a different animal.  lively may be too good eventually to share minutes.  We have time to see how it plays out though.

I don't disagree that having center depth is important during the regular season, and given Lively youth and the fact that he missed nearly 30 games in his first season it may be more important for Mavs, but look around the league.  Most teams have vet mins as their backup centers unless its a stretch center that can play the 4 and even then its around 10 mil.  Teams can't afford to spend significant cap on a player that can't be on the court with the starting center.  Gafford is a luxury right now that we can afford for one more season, but there is going to be a strong argument next offseason to get whatever assets we can for him and backfill with a cheaper player.

[KillerLeft]

If Lively is a starting center playing 30 minutes a game (which I think is how it will play out) then spending 15-18 mil on a backup center playing less than 20 minutes a game is a massive overpay.  You can find guys for a lot less money that can approximate Gafford when they only have to be on the court 15 minutes a game against second units.

Yeah, I don't think people realize how close to tapped out the Mavs are. It's not just the first apron or current hard cap. There's not much room between the first and second apron, and that's where the real pain starts. It's cool that the new owners can afford a tax bill every once in a while, but the reality is that from this point forward, adding anything means subtracting something else. Even just adding an MLE-level guy next summer probably means Kleber or Gafford is gone, and that's before we think about a Kyrie extension or what's happening with Exum, Grimes, Hardy...Gafford or Kleber is probably gone just to keep 1-2 of those guys. 

I think there's a really good chance this is Gafford's last year in Dallas. If Lively is even half the player we believe, it's the sensible way to go.

[Mavs2021]

Yeah, I don't think people realize how close to tapped out the Mavs are. It's not just the first apron or current hard cap. There's not much room between the first and second apron, and that's where the real pain starts. It's cool that the new owners can afford a tax bill every once in a while, but the reality is that from this point forward, adding anything means subtracting something else. Even just adding an MLE-level guy next summer probably means Kleber or Gafford is gone, and that's before we think about a Kyrie extension or what's happening with Exum, Grimes, Hardy...Gafford or Kleber is probably gone just to keep 1-2 of those guys. 

I think there's a really good chance this is Gafford's last year in Dallas. If Lively is even half the player we believe, it's the sensible way to go.

I think there is a legit chance Kyrie opts out and signs something like 100/3. 

1.) He´s unlikely to get more in FA. 
2.) He opts in, he´s probably looking at Klay/DeRozan type money in 2026, which then equals out to less than 100 over three years anyway.

Therefore I think the Mavs look at Kyrie as one salary cap massaging vehicle.

[michaeltex]

I know it's a reach, but I'm really interested in how the 7'4" kid (Jamarion Sharp) does that DAL signed for the SL team. I know he went undrafted, but some of his college highlights show interesting rim protection and nice touch in the paint, not just at the rim.

[KillerLeft]

I think there is a legit chance Kyrie opts out and signs something like 100/3. 

1.) He´s unlikely to get more in FA. 
2.) He opts in, he´s probably looking at Klay/DeRozan type money in 2026, which then equals out to less than 100 over three years anyway.

Therefore I think the Mavs look at Kyrie as one salary cap massaging vehicle.

I agree, but it's still going to be a significant, ongoing commitment.

[dirkfansince1998]

In a largely unprecedented financial concession to give roster flexibility to a contender, New York Knicks star Jalen Brunson has agreed on a four-year, $156.5 million extension, his agent Sam Rose of CAA tells ESPN --- $113M less guaranteed than he’s eligible to receive in one year.

https://x.com/wojespn/status/1811867780884627697

[Knutsen]

https://x.com/wojespn/status/1811867780884627697

Great move from Brunson to prioritize winning over money - let‘s hope it inspires Luka in a couple of years.

And Brunson under 40 million per year for the next 4 years is a steal by the Knicks.

[khaled1987]

https://x.com/wojespn/status/1811867780884627697

I am not trying to open the old discussion, but this feels like a bit of proof of Brunson old talk about him preferring granted money and security over gambling for more.