Trade & FA 2024-25:

[mvossman]

My pessimistic post for the day. I am worried that we will no longer be able to trust this FO now that Lindsey is gone. Nico first two years were mostly a disaster. In his first year instead of utilizing our last year of cap space he runs it back signing Timmy and he doesn’t offer Brunson an extension. Next year he lets Brunson walk while trading a first for Wood and signing McGee to a silly contract to be our starting center.

Then we hire Lindsey and immediately start operating on a different level. We take bad salary for draft compensation, use TPE correctly and make a focused effort to get younger. It continues at the TDL and starting this offseason with the Grimes trade.

Then Lindsey leaves for Detroit and almost immediately the tone of rumors completely change. Now suddenly an aging past his prime “star” becomes the top priority. If we end up losing both DJJ and Green in order to overpay Klay, it will be hard not to come to the conclusion that we experienced a one year Lindsey blip and are now back to Mavs FO as usual.

[F Gump]

If you want a "typical Mavs" note, here's one.

If there is no Klay trade, and they decide to just re-sign DJJ and be done ....
.... then if they can get him to sign for about 8.5M or less, they end up under the TAX line.

How "typical Mavs" would that be?

[Mavs2021]

My pessimistic post for the day. I am worried that we will no longer be able to trust this FO now that Lindsey is gone.  Nico first two years were mostly a disaster. In his first year instead of utilizing our last year of cap space he runs it back signing Timmy and he doesn’t offer Brunson an extension. Next year he lets Brunson walk while trading a first for Wood and signing McGee to a silly contract to be our starting center.

Then we hire Lindsey and immediately start operating on a different level. We take bad salary for draft compensation, use TPE correctly and make a focused effort to get younger.  It continues at the TDL and starting this offseason with the Grimes trade.

Then Lindsey leaves for Detroit and almost immediately the tone of rumors completely change. Now suddenly an aging past his prime “star” becomes the top priority. If we end up losing both DJJ and Green in order to overpay Klay, it will be hard not to come to the conclusion that we experienced a one year Lindsey blip and are now back to Mavs FO as usual.

Let me pile on. Last year Lindsey was the angel top advisor on Nico´s shoulder. Guess who will now resume his role as the devil on Nico´s shoulder? I heard there is a very opinionated minority owner, who likes to advise the whole league how this all works correctly.

[Mavs2021]

Sure, that could be done. All in one big deal, in fact (other than the part of signing DJJ, which would follow). It's easier and cleaner if GS wants Green, and he's their compensation, and you could send them Hardy too without causing them any financial issues, if that's what everyone wants.

Not only would I not send them Hardy. I´d actually ask for draft compensation for us. Without us they´ll still lose Klay, but get nothing in return. What will Denver send them? With us they get Green (who could still become very good) and Kleber (when healthy is good). They get two play-off proven bench players to strengthen their bench for a player that has almost no trade value. 

F*** I hate this idea so much. I´d hate it less, if it was a straight swap of Green or Kleber or Kleber/Powell, because we lose less talent and it puts a limit to how grossly they could overpay Klay, BUT

Red flags should pop up everywhere, when you read the statements by Stein about Klay: he is not happy how he was treated by GS and the media toward the end. 

Does that sound like somebody that voluntarily will accept the reality of his performances and will come off the bench as a 6th man like JET?

The first casualty might be that DJJ says: Oh so Klay comes here, who goes to the bench? Oh me? No. Thanks. Hello LA Klutch brothers. You are completely delusional, if you don´t think that´s what Bron will tell DJJ and promise the starting spot in LA.

Next there is Grimes and Hardy. Teams have things like practice. What if Grimes and Hardy blow by Thompson all the time and hit the threes to the tune of their career averages of around 38%. They show themselves to be superior players (Podziemski did it as a rookie afterall), but have to take a backseat to Thompson with his $300M bank account, while they try to earn their first truly generational life-altering money. Or for the very unlikely case that Kidd actually sides with the younger players how will Thompson take it? He couldn´t stomach three weeks off the bench in his home franchise. You think he´ll do it for three years "abroad"?

And who in this dressing room will police all this? The laid back Luka and Kyrie?

This Klay idea is a barrel full of TNT and you are willingly loading it into your car.

[LukaMVP]

it's way too early to let pessimism overwhelm your mind imho. look back at the reactions after the TC and even Kyrie deals there were also tons of criticism and concerns going around. but you all know how great those deals turned out to be. in my opinion as long as the salary for Klay doesn't exceed 20m/yr and it doesn't cost a first round pick, it is a fine deal at least worth a try. every trade especially the big ones comes with more or less risks and only time will reveal whether they're good or bad. there were mixed feelings and heated debates about the kidd deal upon his arrival as well, he was 35 then, and I doubt the majority of people believed at that time this move together with others would bring us a championship three years later.

[Chicagojk]

I think George returns to the clippers. Sixers would be darn good if healthy but leaving LA for Philly seems less than ideal. George needs a real option to make LAC sweat. They have the richest owner. Will they really stand by their probably smart offer by offering less just to lose PG. having another serious bidder may force the clippers go up their offer. May also bring back some sign and trade options too??

I guess it makes sense Klay isn’t moving from Golden State to come off the bench. I am just still unsure on this path. I can see both sides. His shooting could be a game changer playing off everyone else. On the other hand, is Klay capable guarding the best guard/scoring wing every night? This game it is Shai, next night Ja, next night Booker, etc. I wil have some more definitive thoughts when I feel better about my take and if this even actually happens.

Any chance to keep Josh if DJJ leaves?

[LukaMVP]

regarding the use of Klay, I think it's fine to play him as a regular starter for about 2/3 games of the regular season against teams we're far superior to. it might be a problem against other top teams or teams with super scorers, in which cases we can play him off the bench. furthermore, Klay, luka and Kyrie won't play all 82 games, we may rest one of them alternately, then the number of games they start together won't be too big imho, 50 maybe, assuming no major injuries to any of them hopefully.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Yikes, Don't you people sleep.  It takes a while to catch up since I went to bed.


Probably the best news I've seen is the latest from Stein where he talks about keeping DJJ OR going after Naji Marshall.  Marshall is roughly equivalent to Jones Jr. and is probably expecting that same $8-$12 million payday in free agency.  That means they are trying to get Thompson and preserve some or all of the NT MLE.  Both of those items (S&T and use of more than $5.2mm exception) hard cap you, so we know what the spending limit is.  What we don't know is how the money gets divided between Thompson and whichever MLE guy we get.

I personally don't see Thompson taking the full NT MLE to come here (plus, he can't take it and us keep DJJ for that same exception).  So, the Thompson part has to be a S&T.  We have to move Green.  It can be to GSW or to anyone with space, a TPE or the NT MLE.  As I've long pointed out, his contract fits into that slot (probably by design).  

We've got about $26.5mm to divide between the two players.  If it is a trade match with Green, Klay can get up to $20mm (but that doesn't leave much for DJJ/Marshall).  It doesn't have to be $20mm...it can be anything up to that.  I think more likely we send Green somewhere else for a couple of second rounders (and give one of them to GSW).  That puts Thompson into the THJ trade exception at $16.2mm and leaves about $10.5mm for DJJ/Marshall.  A $16.2mm starting salary is a $10mm advantage over three years compared to taking the MLE from someone else.  Also, GSW now has a nice sized TPE for use in retooling their roster.

I'm going to prick FG here gently.  I posted this exact 16.2/10.5 scenario twice yesterday pointing out that Maxi is retained if we do it this way.  The first time he pointed out that he didn't see a way to keep Maxi if we got Thompson and kept DJJ.  Later I posted it again in response to a question from Scott and FG pointed out that it was unlikely Thompson would take that amount.  I had to chuckle a bit this morning when I saw on page 92 that that exact scenario is now his dream scenario as it prioritizes contracts well.  If it works out this way, it is another bit of strong GMing.  This is what I meant about the brilliance of the Hardaway trade.  I like Grimes, but the fact he fits into one of our TPE's could be really important because it creates a full $16.2mm TPE for THJ rather than netting Grimes salary against THJ's salary.

[Winter]

Thanks Dan... a very helpful post.

A nice contrast to "the sky is falling" theme of last night.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
Any chance to keep Josh if DJJ leaves?

Yes.  It is the same as my post above.  They have about $26.5mm to split.  $12.5mm can go to Green and $14mm can go to Thompson from the THJ TPE.

[SkenfromLMF]

If a S&T is the works, how much would it cost to leverage Powell as the outgoing salary?

BTW I will self-correct a cap vs apron error. For the Apron, rookie and 1 year minimum FA contracts are ALL calculated as vet minimum contracts… so no actual savings for signing a FA to a minimum deal. At this point trading for the rights to 2nd rd draft picks to make the roster is a way to create 900k of Apron space per slot.

With that said, creating a portion of the MLE which can be used to sign rookies to deals which do not qualify as minimum exceptions possibly does save against the Apron. So the number I would try to get DJJ for is around $9.76 of the MLE.

[Jmaciscool]

So this is a pretty fantastic article regarding the Klay Thompson Saga.

From TheAthletic Warriors beat reporter.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5604503...ed_article

Some excerpts:

Klay Thompson is set for free agency and — barring a dramatic mood shift — the Warriors and Thompson are more than prepared for his fairly imminent departure from the Bay Area. So prepared, an NBA source indicated this weekend, that some cordial goodbyes have been shared between Klay and high-ranking members of the Warriors’ organization.
The Warriors had agreed to give George a max, four-year extension upon arrival. They believed they had proposed several variations of a trade that the Clippers could and would accept. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green were 100 percent on board. George gave strong indications he wanted to join the Warriors. But the Clippers never agreed to any version of a trade, and now George is a free agent and essentially beyond the Warriors’ reach

Any possible PG13 trade between the Warriors and Clippers was always going to be complicated, but Warriors executives thought they’d solved the puzzle. From what I’ve heard, some combination (but definitely not all) of Wiggins, CP3, Jonathan Kuminga or Moses Moody plus one future first-round pick were put into discussions with the Clippers.

There were versions that would’ve limited the Clippers’ long-term money liability; there were versions that would’ve increased the future benefits. I’m told the Warriors likely would not have put Wiggins and Kuminga together into any offer, but also that it never got that far, anyway. If that’s what would’ve closed the deal … who knows.

Thompson didn’t love his experience last season and said so. Many times. He didn’t love getting moved to the bench for a few games behind Podziemski. He didn’t love the questions we asked about his future. He didn’t love the national attention on his occasional struggles, obviously including his 0-for-10 shooting night in the Play-In loss to the Sacramento Kings. He really didn’t love that the Warriors put a higher priority on figuring out how to upgrade the roster than on bringing him back this offseason.

Largely, I think Thompson didn’t love being compared with himself from another era, before his two major leg injuries, when he could guard anybody and turn any game into a personal piece of NBA shooting history. He wanted a fresh start. He’s going to get one. He’s also going to come to Chase Center with his new team and want to beat the Warriors; maybe not bitterly, maybe a bit bitterly, but it will be fun to watch.

Thompson likely wasn’t going to be a starter if he remained with the Warriors this season. It was going to be Podziemski. Or Moody. Or somebody else. I’m not sure Thompson wanted to go through that again, and I’m guessing the Warriors wouldn’t have loved it, either. It seems like a cold conclusion to this unbelievable tenure, but it was inevitable.

The Warriors will not be better without Thompson. They will miss his shooting, his personality, his wry humor and everything.

Seems like it would also be really frustrating for Klay to see how far GS would bend over backwards to coddle Green after all his antics but then turn around and expect Klay to be a lesser priority.

[JamesConway912]

I don’t even know what’s the issue here. DJJ has been a big help last year, nobody is denying that, but it’s not like he’s a perfect two way building block. He has flaws as a player, that’s why he was a minimum player last year and that’s why he’s probably an MLE type player even after his breakout year during the prime years of his career. That’s still a good player to have and a huge success for him individually given where he was 12 months ago but the world doesn’t end if he leaves. 

And the crazy thing: despite the Klay-thing it doesn’t even look like DJJ is leaving. Maybe that changes in 9-10 hours but as of now nothing has been lost.

We’ve had MUCH worse dumb crap happen over the last dozen offseasons, maybe it’s because I’m getting older myself, but JFC relax a bit. 

To me DJJ leaving is as bad as loosing out on Jeremy Lin 10 years ago in the aftermath of the VAJ disaster. It hurts for sure but big picture-wise other things are a lot more important and you’d still have plenty of avenues to replace him.

Heck they already made a nice move with Grimes. That’s a solid option to help with wing defense already and there would be more to come anyway.

I think this right here is the plan IF DJJ leaves:

Hardaway ==> Klay (SnT

Green ==> Grimes

DJJ ==> MLE

I really wouldn’t see where the problem is with that. This isn’t like letting Brunson walk in FA.

[loki]

Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie)
Honestly, I think the most stunning one of these decisions that I've seen so far today?

Barlow is good. As a 20 year old in the G League this year, averaged 24/8.

He should have a serious market. If he was a 2024 NBA Draft prospect, would have been a top-30 guy, IMO.

Future Maxi replacement? I just remember him killing the Mavs in the last game of the season to help finish off the tank for Lively.

[SkenfromLMF]

I’d say the PTSD affected folks can see a scenario where Klay does not get S&T’d here, AND DJJ gets poached by the LJL… Dallas is left with a Mid-Level a TPE and no dance partners

[omahen]

Woj saying that Klay and GSW are done and working on a SnT. Mavs need to be careful, those early SnTs cost a couple of other teams a second rounder in fines.

[SleepingHero]

My pessimistic post for the day. I am worried that we will no longer be able to trust this FO now that Lindsey is gone.  Nico first two years were mostly a disaster. In his first year instead of utilizing our last year of cap space he runs it back signing Timmy and he doesn’t offer Brunson an extension. Next year he lets Brunson walk while trading a first for Wood and signing McGee to a silly contract to be our starting center.

Then we hire Lindsey and immediately start operating on a different level. We take bad salary for draft compensation, use TPE correctly and make a focused effort to get younger.  It continues at the TDL and starting this offseason with the Grimes trade.

Then Lindsey leaves for Detroit and almost immediately the tone of rumors completely change. Now suddenly an aging past his prime “star” becomes the top priority. If we end up losing both DJJ and Green in order to overpay Klay, it will be hard not to come to the conclusion that we experienced a one year Lindsey blip and are now back to Mavs FO as usual.

How much of that is Nico's fault or Cuban's fault? Because his first summer was a textbook Cuban summer. 

Cuban basically relinquished control after the Kyrie trade since he was working on a sale that was finalized in December. Is it such a coincidence that as soon Cuban wasn't involved in FA/Draft that the Mavs had a great summer?

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
The Warriors will not re-sign Klay Thompson, per @wojespn.

Thompson is officially moving on from Golden State as both sides work to make a sign-and-trade happen.

[SleepingHero]

Mark Deeks (@MarkDeeksNBA)
Just a few hours left for Gordon Hayward to sign an extension and avoid free agency. The most the Thunder can offer him is a four year, $208,979,256 pact that runs through 2028, but Hayward may be wanting to see what he can get on the open market instead.

[SleepingHero]

If you want a "typical Mavs" note, here's one.

If there is no Klay trade, and they decide to just re-sign DJJ and be done ....
.... then if they can get him to sign for about 8.5M or less, they end up under the TAX line.

How "typical Mavs" would that be?

It'd be very Mavs like. 


But it wouldn't be the worst outcome. They already did the most important piece and did it beautifully. The THJ trade was really such a piece of artwork. Im so high on Grimes.

The most "typical" Mavs summer would've been them dumping THJ+Green AND a FRP to some team for a bunch of space so they can go chase a big fish like KCP, George, or whatever and hope they want to take a discount on a team fresh off a finals appearance. 

Then the first night of free agency Cuban will be eating dinner having had set up no meetings. The team waits on KCP for the first 3 nights, DJJ signs elsewhere, and the Mavs then goes into panic mode when KCP/George signs elsewhere for double the amount we were hoping, and we have to go for the merry minimums to replace 3 roster spots.