Trade & FA 2024-25:

[SleepingHero]

Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) ✧
Free agent F Royce O’Neale intends to sign a new four-year, $44 million deal to return to the Phoenix Suns, sources tell ESPN.

[SleepingHero]

Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) ✧
Free agent F Royce O’Neale intends to sign a new four-year, $44 million deal to return to the Phoenix Suns, sources tell ESPN.

I think this is a pretty reasonable comparison for a potential DJJ contract.

A 4 year 4/45 deal for DJJ would put his starting salary at 10.5mil.

Full 4 years would look something like this at 5% raises:
24-25: 10,585,900
25-56: 11,115,195
26-27: 11,644,490
27-28: 12,173,785

[DallasMaverick]

I think the Mavs can survive 24 minutes of Klay’s elite shooting and 24 minutes of DJJ’s elite defense. Would be great if those two combined their skill sets. 

Just another guy to add to the one-way bunch the Mavs have.

Agreed. He’d be great at the tax MLE.

Maybe even offer a 2-year deal.

[SleepingHero]

Yossi Gozlan (@YossiGozlan)
What's even crazier is the Phoenix Suns 2025-26 payroll projection. Their payroll and tax are projected to exceed $500 million next season.

That's because starting next season, tax rates increase by an additional $1 after the third tax level. Also, they'll be entering the repeater tax, increasing their tax rates by an additional $2.

You can see why many consider this upcoming season a make-or-break year for them.

Yossi Gozlan (@YossiGozlan)
Phoenix Suns payroll projection if Royce O'Neale's four year, $44 million deal starts as low as $9.8 million:

Payroll: $216.7 million
Luxury tax penalty: $162.4 million

$379 million roster would be second most expensive of all time behind last year's Warriors ($384 million).

[BigDirk41]

Agreed. He’d be great at the tax MLE.

Maybe even offer a 2-year deal.

Get ready for 3/60 or more.

[mvossman]

The issue isn't that the Mavs wouldn't have POA attack defenders. But where do you find minutes for them if Kyrie, Luka and Klay are starting/playing 30+ minutes.
Kleber is not only the 5-out big. He is also their switch all big. A skillset that Lively and Gafford don't offer. Mavs would lose a lot of their lineup versatility without him.

There is no perfect solution. Mavs don't have the assets to get the kind of player that can fix all of their issues. Doesn't mean that they should settle for a player that creates as much issues as he fixes. Mavs don't have to make a trade just for the sake of it. They don't have to trade Green+Kleber this summer. And if they make a trade they don't have to chase the biggest available name.

Not much point in me commenting on this anymore. Dirkfan makes my points better than I do.

[KillerLeft]

Lots of assumptions being made on both sides of this, our first post-"The Day of Agreement" debate. 

Here's where I am, in the most basic of senses:

I love the trade to turn THJ into 50% air, 50% Grimes, freeing up the MLE for DJJ, and not giving up a first. I think that's genius. Given that there were likely other options, does anyone have even a slight difficulty acknowledging that Harrison probably correctly identified the best one to choose? Even without knowing details of the others, can't we reasonably assume this was the one to jump on?

I am 99.9% sure Derrick Jones, Jr will be re-signed. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. Harrison said he'd do it, and I think he's going to do it. If so, we should all be content with the off-season, because re-signing Jones and adding a smaller piece (Grimes) is all we thought reasonably possible going into the off-season, and some among us didn't think that much was possible. 

Personally, I am not super, super thrilled if Jones gets the ENTIRE $12.9 million MLE. I think he has earned as much as he can get, but I think he's more likely to look like a mistake signing at that number in a year than he would in the $8-10 million range. It's a small quibble, I know, so I won't get into a twist about this, but it's something I'm monitoring. 

As long as the Mavs accomplish everything above, which I believe constitutes some nifty roster management to secure the services and bird rights of probably the TWO best POA defenders available this off-season, it's going to be pretty difficult for me to sour on anything they do afterwards, provided the rest is extra - in addition to - also - cherry on top.

Now, here are some things I believe, and please bear with me if this is a little on the ramble side - I want to thoroughly build this house:

1) Though they tinkered with the lineup all season, the Mavs ultimately decided to bet on DJJ in a big role down the stretch and through the playoffs. This was the right choice, and paid off. But, there's a reason they didn't give him the job on opening night, and there's a reason he's not getting more than the MLE. 

2) They stopped playing Hardaway almost completely as the season neared the end, despite the knowledge that doing so would end any chances of getting him out of his slump and that not having the best version of him in the playoffs might hold them back at some point. It was a judgement call, and whether anyone wants to admit it, one that came with some risk. 

3) Green was also sort of passed over for a bigger role down the stretch and in the playoffs, though they did play him plenty, as he emerged about halfway through the playoffs as the least of all evil choices when it came to bench wing. Still, he was anything but consistent, and now his name is out there in trade rumors. 

4) DJJ, while integral to the stretch run and first three rounds, was not effective in the finals. Not only was he part of the problem on offense, but with how Boston approaches their attack, he was honestly a non-factor on defense, too. This isn't an indictment on him, it's just Boston has the horses and the system to ensure they're attacking whomever they want, and can do so no matter what cross-matches you're throwing at them. In those specific circumstances, DJJ is borderline unplayable. 

5) Despite point #4, the Mavs' offense, not their defense, is what cost them the championship. I'm not interested in nuance with this point (yet), just stating a fact. They had a 101 rating in the Finals, and that's ABYSMAL. Their defense actually held Boston under their regular season norm for the series. 

6) Harrison stated prior to the off-season that retaining DJJ was "priorities 1A and 1B." We know they had to do some gymnastics to make this possible, so we know that what DJJ brought to the table is appreciated and seen as the most important thing to secure this summer. 

7) The Mavs are very likely to see other teams attempt to defend them exactly how Boston did. Teams like Minnesota can't, but teams like LAC and OKC might be able to get there. Those are just examples, using the teams Dallas faced in the playoffs. This should be very concerning for us. It must be accounted for in Harrison's plans, moving forward. "Overreacting" is a valid thing to be concerned about, but changing nothing is simply not an option if they're serious about winning a championship soon.

8) IF the Mavs want to continue with their offensive system, they've got to add variety to the sources of scoring within it. The offense has to be less predictable. These changes can't come from additional perimeter-based ball-handling, because the team is already built around two of that type of player. A third would add depth, but not fundamentally change what's possible in a playoff series. That might help them win the battle of the benches, but even that, I think, is faulty thinking, because Luka and Kyrie just failed to get the offense going against a switch-all defense and there is almost no chance they'll find a 3rd even close to their level (because why on Earth would that player want to come here?). Even if you think I'm wrong about this (I'm not, but judging by the ideas for adding players, many of you think I am) then that 3rd ball-handler would need to play WITH Luka and Kyrie, simultaneously, to make a difference with this problem. That brings us back to benching Jones during stretches that matter. 

9) Given #8, it seems obvious to me the offensive changes must come from positions (offensive positions, to be clear) 3-5. Unless you think Dereck Lively is about to be some feared threat from the post (I don't) or some Draymond Green/Vlade Divac level dribble-handoff hub of offense (I don't), then we can eliminate the 5 as a possibility for this evolution. That leaves the two forward spots, which are the exact spots Jason Timpf identified as the offensive weak links as Dallas tried to make this style of offense work against Boston's style of defense.

10) I believe that Jerami Grant would be a solution to all of this. Strongly. I believe Nico Harrison agrees and has been desperately trying to find a way to get him. I view Grant as a monumental leap forward in offensive creation and finishing for this team, including adding dimensions they don't even have right now in addition to just improving off-ball spacing in the areas of the Mavs' sets that the league now knows to ignore, thanks to Boston. I also believe this is in line with the other priority of "not losing the defensive identity" because in the worst-case, Grant can guard 2-4 positions and be closer to DJJ/PJ than he is to Green/Hardaway in effectiveness, and in the best-case, I think he'd make an impact on that end similar to the ones DJJ/PJ made down the stretch. He's at the very least another long, athletic, versatile, switchable forward - the kind every team in the NBA covets. 

11) Because I believe Harrison agrees with me about Grant, because he prioritized re-signing DJJ, because he went out and got Grimes (who is rather obviously meant specifically as an upgrade in the role Green had during the playoffs) and even because of who they targeted the other night with their second rounder, I believe rather faithfully that Harrison and the Mavs are seeing the team the same way I do, and the same way many of the people upset with this Klay Thompson rumor do, too. I think their aim is to keep the team long, athletic and potentially more switchable, while searching for ways (with some urgency) to add BOTH improved shooting/spacing to what's already working on offense (to make it work better) AND add more variety to how that offense is generated. This is a "thank God" moment for me, but all those goals, combined, constitutes something much easier said than done. 

12) #11 leads me to believe that Grant is either unavailable for what the Mavs are able/willing to offer, or that he doesn't really want to come here. That sucks, from my POV, but it might be beyond them to get it done and thus can't be helped. Because I think the interest in Grant points rather overtly to the idea that they were toying with the idea that this offensive improvement could come by upgrading PJ's spot, and not DJJ's, I think this speaks loudly that they, like many of us, believe that POA defender is an area they'd prefer not to disturb in a perfect world. 

13) Ok, so who's out there and gettable who represents an offensive leap forward at the 4 without losing too much (if any) defense, once we eliminate Grant? And bear in mind, not only can the defense not drop off from where PJ was down the stretch, but the offensive improvement must be significant enough to be more attractive than the prospect of potential improvement from PJ, himself, who is only 25 and fit here eerily well. The only name I've read all summer that even comes close to qualifying is Kyle Kuzma, who I think is more of a natural offensive player than PJ, and could fix some of these problems on offense. (For the record, I now understand why the Mavs kicked the tires on him at the deadline. I think that's an indication that Harrison saw this problem coming in advance, and even though I loathe Kuzma, I'm currently finding comfort in this, even, because I understand the why of it now and take it as yet another sign that Harrison is seeing the puzzle the same way I do). But, Kuzma's basketball IQ is low, so I doubt he'd help as much as Harrison would hope. I don't think he's up to playing defense how DJJ/PJ do, and with those factors, combined, I'd struggle with the idea of pushing PJ to the bench (or even moving him) to make room for Kuzma, who likely wouldn't want a bench role, himself, given that he didn't want to come here when the starting job was his for the taking at the deadline. 

14) #13 got a little wordy, sorry, but the moral of the story is that Grant was literally the only path to accomplishing everything they needed to accomplish I saw this summer, at least in a close to ideal way, and it doesn't look like that's a possibility. So, that brings us to finding "less than ideal" ways, to my thinking. 

15) If you can't add a new style/dimension to your offensive system then the logical fallback is to improve the off-ball shooting, which was already at least 2nd or 3rd on the list of priorities. 

16) Nothing, and I mean nothing, from the observations above gives me any reason to believe Harrison and the Mavs don't see this athletic, POA component to what worked for them as any less important than many of us do. So, I'm not going to panic until they give me a real, concrete reason to do so. I think they know that a defender like that is needed next to Luka and Kyrie. 

Conclusions:

There are so, so many things about this Thompson stuff that we don't know yet. We can assume what his motives/drives are, but this is a team that just made the Finals. The Warriors didn't make the playoffs, right? Is it not possible he'd be coming in more on the Mavs' terms than we immediately suspect? I don't think the Mavs' recent actions are those of a team afraid to make tough rotation decisions when they determine how to move forward. 

The contract range being discussed isn't problematic to me, and it really can't reach a problematic place, due to the limited size of what's available after DJJ signs relative to the hard cap they're now dealing with (and likely always intended as a limiter). By rule, a sign-and-trade has to be three years, but what if years two and three aren't fully guaranteed? On one extreme, this could end up being a freaking trade chip at the deadline. I don't expect something that favorable, but I'm just illustrating that the details matter here. 

For that matter, are we even sure yet that this is real? Is it possible that this is a leverage play from either side, or even both? It doesn't feel that way, but isn't that the point of a good leverage play, and if it's that, wouldn't that represent improvement in front office craft, rather than a revert back to the Cuban style? This could be a way to lower the trade-cost for Grant or even someone we haven't thought of. This could be a way to lower the contractual demands of DJJ to maintain future flexibility, which might explain why he just changed representation. There are just so many factors in play we don't know. 

We don't even know whether GS or the Clippers are interested in doing this for Thompson/Dallas, even if the mutual interest is real.

And, above all, there is a way to make adding Klay Thompson to last year's rotation a positive. We can worry that they won't hit the sweet spot with it, but again, nothing in the above observations leads to believe they're said in some meeting "eff it, let's just go back to only caring about shooting." I assume that if this is real, they think they can work Klay into what's already working, and that's supported clearly, I think, by the prioritization of retaining DJJ (at a significant markup in salary) AND adding Grimes. If they're wrong, they're wrong, but it's not going to be some window closer, because I don't think they'll allow it to prevent them from retaining Jones, which at the very least gives them the option to play pretty much exactly the way they just did in the playoffs, whether Thompson is here or not. 

It's cool to compare what they do (if they do this) to the "what ifs" of other paths, but we don't even know what other paths are really, actually available. The people making the decisions outlined above seem like they see what I do, so while this wouldn't have been my first choice of paths, I'm reasonably confident whatever they wind up doing will be pretty close to the top of the list of what is actually possible.

[KillerLeft]

Grant Afseth (@GrantAfseth)
If the Lakers open the full non-taxpayer MLE, seems like Derrick Jones Jr. would be the logical target.

Jones signed to Klutch Sports Group close to free agency, the first representation change of his 9-year NBA career.

Mavs GM Nico Harrison referred to re-signing Jones as “priority 1A and 1B” before trading Tim Hardaway Jr. to open the full MLE themselves, but recent reports have increasingly linked them to Klay Thompson.

My guess is that the MLE target might be DeRozan, who apparently really wants to get to an LA team, somehow. 

But, I suppose it's possible the DJJ is thinking about bailing on Dallas, which might explain some stuff (I doubt it, though).

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
Markelle Fultz will receive interest from a number of teams in free agency seeking further backcourt help.

The 2017 No. 1 overall pick has developed into a solid defender during his tenure with the Magic.

With Orlando’s guard depth, Fultz will likely depart for a bigger role.

[Mavs2021]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
Markelle Fultz will receive interest from a number of teams in free agency seeking further backcourt help.

The 2017 No. 1 overall pick has developed into a solid defender during his tenure with the Magic.

With Orlando’s guard depth, Fultz will likely depart for a bigger role.

Yes their guard depth of Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony.

[omahen]

Yes their guard depth of Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony.

How about Anthony Black? And rumors of Ingles, Harris returning and Orlando primarily targeting guards with their max level cap space?

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
The Pistons are waiving Troy Brown Jr., per @JLEdwardsIII.

Brown enters the veteran’s minimum market for teams needing reserve wing depth.

[KillerLeft]

When does this all actually (*cough*) "start?" Midnight tonight? 2 PM tomorrow? Midnight tomorrow?

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I think 3pm tomorrow

[SleepingHero]

When does this all actually (*cough*) "start?" Midnight tonight? 2 PM tomorrow? Midnight tomorrow?

Free agency officially opens Sunday night 6pm EST.

Paul George player option is today at 5pm EST. 

CP3's contract guarantee option is Sunday 6pm EST

[KillerLeft]

Free agency officially opens Sunday night 6pm EST.

Paul George player option is today at 5pm EST. 

CP3's contract guarantee option is Sunday 6pm EST

Dude, from all of us (I hope) to you, thanks for absolutely killing it for this board during the off-season. You are enhancing my experience greatly.

[mvossman]

One interesting thing to point out regarding the MAVs offensive issues in the finals is that the offensive rating may have been 101 but the Luka/Kyrie minutes were 113. And that was with Kyrie issues in Boston and Luka being cold from 3. Are we sure the issue is with the starting lineup? Maybe bringing in a legit 6th man will solve a lot of the offensive problems in bench minutes. Maybe that same player can keep Luka from taking such a heavy load during the season, allowing him to be more fresh in playoffs. Maybe those two things in addition to a younger team improving is enough to bridge the gap?

[KillerLeft]

One interesting thing to point out regarding the MAVs offensive issues in the finals is that the offensive rating may have been 101 but the Luka/Kyrie minutes were 113. And that was with Kyrie issues in Boston and Luka being cold from 3. Are we sure the issue is with the starting lineup?  Maybe bringing in a legit 6th man will solve a lot of the offensive problems in bench minutes. Maybe that same player can keep Luka from taking such a heavy load during the season, allowing him to be more fresh in playoffs. Maybe those two things in addition to a younger team improving is enough to bridge the gap?

It's an interesting point, but 113 isn't good enough, either. 

And, while the load on Luka and Kyrie's shoulders, minutes wise, is a concern to consider, I suspect that the Mavs are highly unlikely to find a third guy good enough to make it seem like a good idea not to play both of them 40 minutes+. Maaaaaaybe Kyrie, but not Luka. Big minutes is just what stars sign up for in the playoffs. The answer there is the board's other "Coke vs. Pepsi" jihad - conditioning. If Luka wants to plant his flag at the top of the NBA mountain, he'll have to be more physically up to the tolls of 4, grueling playoff rounds than his opponents, and not just more skilled than them. He doesn't need to be more athletic than them, but he needs to be less tired than they are in the late 4th quarters of these games. 

I'd suggest that a much better way to help him with this mission is to ensure that his entire time on the court isn't spent going 1-on-1 with the other team's best defenders and not trying to find ways for him to be on the court less. I don't know that Thompson represents a solution to that problem, really, but I do think it's possible he gets them closer to the kind of spacing Luka/Brunson feasted on in '22. It's not nothing, as long as it doesn't represent a major setback for the newly found defensive identity. 

If they do this, it will mean they think they can hold onto that identity, somehow, not that they're abandoning it. They might be wrong, but that's the point I'm trying to make above. 

If this ends up being instead of Jones, or "take these 30 minutes, Klay, even if it's not working" or one of the hundred other things we're assuming, I'll be right there with you saying it was a mistake.

[SleepingHero]

Dude, from all of us (I hope) to you, thanks for absolutely killing it for this board during the off-season. You are enhancing my experience greatly.

If it means anything... everything from the crazy ideas, the niche cap stuff, and of course the memes, has elevated my experience of the board this offseason too. Not that its any different from what we usually do. We just have a kick ass group of people here that consistently produce some of the highest quality bball discussion on the web bar none.

So a thank you from me is in order as well cause you also contribute to that!

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
The Nuggets do not plan to enter a bidding war to retain Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, per @espn_macmahon (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/br...0660530756).

If a team offers a high annual value to Caldwell-Pope out of their price range, they will let him walk.