Trade & FA 2024-25:

[F Gump]

" Doubt DAL likes it either, since THJ-Green-Powell for Grant ends up with DAL having TxMLE (5.2M) and minimums, which likely means DJJ is out the door. "

Well in this fantasy they're also getting Thybulle. That could soften the blow of losing DJJ. .

I didn't understand that it was a Grant-Thybulle package. 

THJ-Green-Powell for Grant-Thybulle is a million miles from being a legal trade. It's not even close. They would need to send another $8M in salary, and end up over Apron 1 with a hard cap at Apron 2.

Let me add another comment about the Grant idea. I think it flies in the face of what the Mavs have been doing, which is to target modest-sized bargain contracts for the rest of the role players, that complement Luka and Kai. There's only so much money to go around. Gotta find the players that can outplay their salary. If you pay more, they MUST excel at both ends, be the right age, etc. That's not Grant at all, who gets $30M but is far from an all-star, and who has turned into a lazy-defense player now that he got a big deal. I think they are headed the other way, targeting the players who have been overlooked, and have a really strong chance to outplay their contract, rather than heading for the PHX model where it's 3 players plus a team full of minimums who are just too thin to do all the other things well that Luka-Kai don't do.

Who is a different Gafford? Or - how do you create someone like that, who isn't yet on a huge salary and can help you on both ends?

[KillerLeft]

I hesitate to even bring this up, because it's dumb of me to even consider this, but...we're brainstorming.

If the Mavs could somehow get the idealized version of Andrew Wiggins that we saw in the '22 playoffs...they can't because that player doesn't exist and only existed for that playoff run, but if they could, that player solves a lot of issues on the roster. A lot.

The only reason I'm even dwelling on this idea for more than a few seconds is that GS is so stuck in cap hell that I think the Mavs might be able to GET some kind of additional asset for taking on that contract. Turning Wiggins into THJ's expiring deal has got to be worth something to them.

Unfortunately, if the Mavs were to do such a thing, I would have to leave the board out of embarrassment for bringing his name up in this otherwise great thread.

[SleepingHero]

I didn't understand that it was a Grant-Thybulle package. 

THJ-Green-Powell for Grant-Thybulle is a million miles from being a legal trade. It's not even close. They would need to send another $8M in salary, and end up over Apron 1 with a hard cap at Apron 2.

No no. It is THJ+Green+Maxi as the original proposed fantasy trade. Not Powell. 


That trade is legal.

[F Gump]

No no. It is THJ+Green+Maxi as the original proposed fantasy trade. Not Powell.

That trade is legal.

Ok. There were other names mentioned, and I got confused because I didn't go back to read it all again in order. I get it now. Sorry for the extra work, and thanks for your patience.

THJ+Green+Maxi   39.85
Grant-Thybulle      40.82

Yep, almost legal (will require 100% which takes another player), close enough.

[KillerLeft]

Just listened to the latest episode of Hardwood Knocks, which contained a nice, accurate rundown of the Mavs' offseason outlook. They mentioned many of the same names we've discussed, only no mention of Tobias Harris or Thybulle. Here are some highlights:

They both think that the Mavs' offensive ineptitude against Boston is a problem to be attacked, but that Boston is so good right now that Dallas shouldn't overreact and try to reinvent themselves too much. Both seemed on board with the idea that re-signing DJJ should be mission #1.

They both agreed that the mini-MLE won't be enough to keep DJJ, but both thought there was a decent chance the Room MLE range, starting at roughly $8 Mill would be enough. I'm hearing more and more people suggest that the full $12.9 mil MLE might be overkill for Jones, and the logic that keeps coming up is that teams are smart enough to know that he won't play as well when you get him out of here and into a less custom-made situation. One of them even went so far as to suggest the possibility of him taking a 1+1 (player option) at the vet min again, knowing ahead of time he'd opt out of that 2nd year and get a new deal with full early bird rights. Here's hoping, because that would change the Mavs' maneuverability in a profound way because then, Hardaway's expiring contract could be used in a package not to jettison money, but to acquire an actual player (Dan's point over the past few weeks). Honestly, even without that pipe dream I found the conversation encouraging.

Grant, Kuzma and ESPECIALLY Advija, the only target they were willing to kick in 2031 to get, were discussed as positive big splash improvements. In each case, they felt the short term gain would be worth a high trade cost to acquire for the immediate future, but might leave Dallas with an uncomfortable and hard to work around salary structure moving forward. You guys all know how I feel about Kuzma, but I'm here to do some fair reporting tonight. The fact that they were so excited about Advija means that a lot of smarter people than I are in support of that move. I might need to rethink my lukewarm take on that.

They listed Luka, Kyrie, Lively and PJ Washington as the guys Dallas should build around, and specifically discussed how Green is not making as much sense on this team as he used to, suggesting that he's a player who could be included in a deal for an upgrade.

Interestingly, they ALSO said what I TRIED to say a few weeks back about Gafford. He's a good player and might have some worth out there, and if Lively is what he looks like he's going to be, the Mavs really don't need another guy around who does the same things, only not quite as well. The discussion was about how Gafford will help them eat innings during the regular season, but come playoff time he's kind of overkill as long as Lively is healthy, and can even be neutralized completely in a playoff series. They mused that his salary could easily be used in a deal this summer, and said "you probably need a minimum salary player at backup 5." I see Gafford as expendable, too, but only in the RIGHT deal. I don't expect the Mavs to do that this summer at all, because I think they'd probably like to give Lively one more year to get going for real, but I feel like we'll all be thinking about what they can get for Gafford pretty soon. Maybe next summer. Maybe even at the deadline.

They agreed with many of you that an upgrade at stretch big is a need. They mentioned Larry Nance Jr and Jalen Smith, if circumstances might allow, but neither idea was fleshed out, just brainstorming.

No mention of Tobias Harris or Matisse Thybulle. They DID mention our old friend DFS.

All in all, good listen. It's becoming one of my go to podcasts (thanks, Dan!).

[KillerLeft]

Ok. There were other names mentioned, and I got confused because I didn't go back to read it all again in order. I get it now. Sorry for the extra work, and thanks for your patience.

THJ+Green+Maxi   39.85
Grant-Thybulle      40.82

Yep, almost legal (will require 100% which takes another player), close enough.

Is Lawson enough? Because if so, and Portland would go for it, THAT'S a deal I'd attach a pick to. I wouldn't go 2031 in that package, but I'd do 2025 with minimal or no protections. Would that be enough to get it done, or would it take O-Max or Hardy in place of Lawson? Would THAT even be enough? 

Ugh. I hate/love the off season.

[RGP1981]

I think most realize that the Mavs need to improve on both sides of the ball to match the Celtics, since the Celtics have every chance of being back in the Finals again. An important question also related to the Celtics for this trade deadline...

Will Kyrie ever be able to exorcise his Celtics demons? He wasn't able to do so before the Celtics won a title without him... will he be able to do so after they demolished him and the Mavs en route to a ring?

So, do the Mavs continue to roll with Kyrie and hope that the Celtics don't make the Finals again? Or is this a good time to part ways?

As an aside, Luka also HAS to get in better shape and stay in better shape for the whole season.

[F Gump]

Is Lawson enough? Because if so, and Portland would go for it, THAT'S a deal I'd attach a pick to. I wouldn't go 2031 in that package, but I'd do 2025 with minimal or no protections. Would that be enough to get it done, or would it take O-Max or Hardy in place of Lawson? Would THAT even be enough? 

Ugh. I hate/love the off season.

Yes, Lawson's salary can work. He's at 2.12M non-guaranteed, so they would only have to guarantee part of it (just enough to make the totals match).

I'm not enamored with Grant at all. I don't like him on that $30M contract. And I suspect POR will price him like an all-star 2-way elite player, which makes me dislike the idea of getting him even more.

Thybulle has some appeal to me if he can be acquired by sending THJ (and if a pick is required, the crappiest one we have), but a large part of wanting MT in that scenario is the idea of moving on from THJ without a SW.

[RGP1981]

Is there any way the Mavs can swing a 3-team trade involving Kyrie and Mikal Bridges?

- Luka, *Guard*, Mikal, PJW, Lively/Gafford

The *Guard* could be any of DJJ/Thybulle, Coby White, Isaiah Joe.

If the Mavs had all three (in addition to Mikal): Thybulle, White and Joe... what an amazing range of options this would give to the coach.

If my post is too fantasy-ish... sorry, I'm just trying to think up rosters that can match and beat the Cs.

[KillerLeft]

I think most realize that the Mavs need to improve on both sides of the ball to match the Celtics, since the Celtics have every chance of being back in the Finals again. An important question also related to the Celtics for this trade deadline...

Will Kyrie ever be able to exorcise his Celtics demons? He wasn't able to do so before the Celtics won a title without him... will he be able to do so after they demolished him and the Mavs en route to a ring?

So, do the Mavs continue to roll with Kyrie and hope that the Celtics don't make the Finals again? Or is this a good time to part ways?

As an aside, Luka also HAS to get in better shape and stay in better shape for the whole season.

The Mavericks are absolutely, 100% not going to be doing much thinking about parting ways with Kyrie Irving this summer, no matter how many times you bring it up. Frankly, I think they are probably looking ahead at extensions right about now, planning for that expenditure.

I liked the post because I agree that Kyrie finding a way to play well in Boston is going to be important in the future. but, outside of the finals, I think it’s safe to say that the Kyrie Irving trade was a resounding success in a plethora of ways, and that is coming from someone who bitched and complained about it for months afterwards. I still think the Brunson situation was handled with horrible incompetence and that the team would likely be better off now had they not made that error, but looking back at the Kyrie trade, it’s pretty clear that was the point when things started to improve for the team again.

[KillerLeft]

I'm not enamored with Grant at all. I don't like him on that $30M contract. And I suspect POR will price him like an all-star 2-way elite player, which makes me dislike the idea of getting him even more.

That’s fair, because he is not an all-star, and he never will be. I won’t try to defend the contract or downplay the difficulties of building around it in the future, should it go on these books. There are many years left on the deal, too. Four more, I think.

However, this is a player I have been following really closely for quite some time now. I feel confidently that he is a good fit here, kind of like I felt at the deadline about PJ Washington when everyone hated that idea. That doesn’t mean I’m going to be right about this, I’m just saying that if anything, I might prefer Grant to Washington. Like PJ, I would expect Grant to play totally differently here, after being relegated to Detroit and Portland for so long. 

I think that when he left Denver, he wanted a shot to be “the man” on a team, as well as a shot for the wealth that comes with that. And, he ALMOST made it, doing well enough in that role as a piston to get Portland interested, and then well enough there to get this current crazy contract he has now. At this point, it’s pretty clear that he’s not quite good enough to play that type of role well enough to make a team good. I suppose there’s a chance he doesn’t care about that and will happily just jack up shots for a team that is constantly down by 12 points, hoping that he can get even another big payday when this contract runs out, but I have to think he knows better than that, unlike Kyle Kuzma.

I also think that the line between where he is and “good enough to be the second best player on a good team” is paper thin. I think if most people here were to watch him for about five straight games, they would come away from that experience with a much higher level of respect for the skills he brings on both ends of the floor. He is a great ball handler for his size, capable of running the offense for long stretches. He’s a little bit like prime Lamar Odom, with better shooting range, now that I think about it. Defensively, it’s very true that he has slacked off in recent years, but I really don’t think that is about ability, I think that’s about him being the go to guy on a bad team. I like the chances of him making a defensive impact here if he wants to come. 

I think he might be better suited to play the PJ role than the DJJ role, and that gives me a little pause, but honestly the only thing I really don’t like about him is his contract.

[juanc]

First of all I think that many of you are overreacting to the Boston series and forgot that the Mavs had a great run. They were clearly one of the best teams after the starting lineup change, they were one of the best defensive teams, with great offense also. I think that we can all agreee that Luka was banged up durning the playoffs, he had his worst playoff run, and yet the Mavs were in the Finals where they have played the team, that is tailor made to stop the Mavs offense, and has 4 of the best defensive players in the league, with KP and Horford next to them, who are both very smart defenders. This is the best teams since the KD era Warriors, they were the best team this season.

First of all, the Mavs will improve, because they will have a whole offseason together with this core. PJ know exactly on wich areas he needs to work on and improve. DJJ knows what he needs to do, Gaffney( ) knows,... And then there is Lively, who I think is an all defensive team type of player next year.
Josh Green was solid and was a rotation player in this years playoffs. The Mavs didn't want to trade him at the TDL and you guys are trying to give him away for free... I think he's a great 8th man, with his hustle and improved shooting. Jaden Hardy has also shown he did some huge steps with his playmaking. And they are 23 and 21 years old, so I think that it's reasonable to expect them to improve. Also OMax has made some huge strides in the Gleague, and I can see him having the same role that Hardy had this season.

On to Thybulle. I think he is a match made in heaven for the Mavs. He plays a special kind of defense and he needs the right scheme in order to be maximized. He likes to play defense from behind, and he excells when playing next to a great rim protector, so he play the passing lanes. He is great at recovering, and rim protection makes it easier for a player like him.
Watch this video of his defense in philly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvLM8VNba8k

Also when talking about his offensive game, as someone mentioned, he stayed in the corner for whole possesions, but in Dallas that's a great thing actually, because Luka likes it that way. If he can hit the threes at around 36+%, he would be a stud on this Mavs team. He is tailor made for the Mavs defensive scheme.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Just listened to the latest episode of Hardwood Knocks, which contained a nice, accurate rundown of the Mavs' offseason outlook. They mentioned many of the same names we've discussed, only no mention of Tobias Harris or Thybulle. Here are some highlights:

Grant, Kuzma and ESPECIALLY Advija, the only target they were willing to kick in 2031 to get, were discussed as positive big splash improvements. In each case, they felt the short term gain would be worth a high trade cost to acquire for the immediate future, but might leave Dallas with an uncomfortable and hard to work around salary structure moving forward.

All in all, good listen. It's becoming one of my go to podcasts (thanks, Dan!).

I think the only reason we’ve been discussing Harris or Thybulle is because of one media report and one somewhat cryptic “insider” report.  Both probably came out since they recorded that.  Is that the episode where they mentioned Bogdan?  I remember one of them saying good things about him too, but can’t remember how long ago that was.

Avdija is about as good as it gets in terms of contract size (less than 100% of outgoing THJ and similar money to PJ, but declining).  He plays plus D and on offense he’s a jack of many trades and while he’s kind of a master of none, he’s fairly good at almost everything (and still on a pretty good growth curve at only 23).

FWIW, Washington doesn’t have a 2025 pick.  I’d probably do the Green for 2026 part I mentioned earlier (using their TPE to absorb Green in a June trade) and add THJ, lightly protected 2025 and a lightly protected swap of 31 as a separate deal (that probably has to wait until July).  As they said on the podcast, that is a steep price, but you keep DJJ at the full NT MLE (moving him to a bench role) and you’ve swapped Green/31 pick swap (and a 24 for 25 pick swap kind of) for Avdija.  As we’ve talked through names, he’s probably number one for me.  The starting lineup just makes sense.   PJ is probably your worst starter, if not now, sometime fairly soon.

Lively, PJ, Avdija, Kyrie and Luka

Gafford, Maxi/Omax, DJJ, Hardy, Exum

[RGP1981]

Avdija is about as good as it gets in terms of contract size (less than 100% of outgoing THJ and similar money to PJ, but declining).  He plays plus D and on offense he’s a jack of many trades and while he’s kind of a master of none, he’s fairly good at almost everything (and still on a pretty good growth curve at only 23).

Lively, PJ, Avdija, Kyrie and Luka

Gafford, Maxi/Omax, DJJ, Hardy, Exum

If the Mavs get Avdija, I'd want to add a little more shooting to this bench you have listed; at the guard spot. One of Quentin Grimes or Isaiah Joe.

I'm not sure how to go about getting one of those two though, i.e., in addition to Avdija. Do you have any ideas?

[Chicagojk]

I think Deni will be much harder to get than Kuzma. Deni, I think, played well after the trade deadline and fits in much better with their team going forward. Kuzma doesn't. I am telling you Kuzma is an interesting buy low candidate. He will cost something (maybe even something plus) but he is hiding in plain site. The question does he want to go from the first option on terrible teams to the 3rd/4th option on a good team and everything that goes with the drop in importance (defense, hustle, etc). I could care less about his comments after the trade deadline. I don't expect it to happen, but his skill set does fit with our team.

[Chicagojk]

I watched highlights of Thybulle last night and saw some clips of him on defense from a few years ago. The three clips were him guarding Steph Curry, another one where he was guarding KD and Harden on the Nets and the last one of him guarding Luka.

I can certainly see the appeal. One, it is literary impossible to completely stop great offensive players. They are just going to make shots no matter what they do. Second, it is pretty easy to see that he plays defense how Kidd wants to play. Funnel stuff to our bigs while our perimeter players just make offensive stars take really tough shots. In addition, playing the passing lanes when our bigs swallow up drives. Thybulle is great at both. Boston was pretty much the only team that really destroyed our defense. I think we need to be aware of this, but is not something to totally re-wire our system.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86CiqijikYs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HXG-5zaxJk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9e9xDIXQq7Q

[dirkfansince1998]

I think Deni will be much harder to get than Kuzma.  Deni, I think, played well after the trade deadline and fits in much better with their team going forward.  Kuzma doesn't.  I am telling you Kuzma is an interesting buy low candidate.  He will cost something (maybe even something plus) but he is hiding in plain site.  The question does he want to go from the first option on terrible teams to the 3rd/4th option on a good team and everything that goes with the drop in importance (defense, hustle, etc).  I could care less about his comments after the trade deadline.  I don't expect it to happen, but his skill set does fit with our team.

He already answered that question. If we can trust the rumors he could have joined the Mavs but declined the opportunity. Really hope that the new front office has more self-respect than the Cuban era Mavs.
No interest in guys like him or SD. Mavs simply aren't a "true contender" and don't have the "dad mentality".

[dirkfansince1998]

I watched highlights of Thybulle last night and saw some clips of him on defense from a few years ago.  The three clips were him guarding Steph Curry, another one where he was guarding KD and Harden on the Nets and the last one of him guarding Luka.

I can certainly see the appeal.  One, it is literary impossible to completely stop great offensive players.  They are just going to make shots no matter what they do.  Second, it is pretty easy to see that he plays defense how Kidd wants to play.  Funnel stuff to our bigs while our perimeter players just make offensive stars take really tough shots.  In addition, playing the passing lanes when our bigs swallow up drives.  Thybulle is great at both.    Boston was pretty much the only team that really destroyed our defense.  I think we need to be aware of this, but is not something to totally re-wire our system. 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86CiqijikYs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HXG-5zaxJk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9e9xDIXQq7Q

It's easy to see why he was their first choice last summer. Gives me some confidence that the player evaluation/scouting improvement that we saw over the last 12-18 months wasn't just luck. It seems like the Mavs an idea how they want to play and are able to identify the fitting pieces.

[mvossman]

As I mentioned a few paged back, both Jerami Grant and Deandre Hunter shoot well on ATB 3s (37%+).

I have not seen anything to suggest Hunter could come close to replicating what we get from DJJ defensively.  He seems like a classic case of trading defense for offense.

[mvossman]

I think Deni will be much harder to get than Kuzma.  Deni, I think, played well after the trade deadline and fits in much better with their team going forward.  Kuzma doesn't.  I am telling you Kuzma is an interesting buy low candidate.  He will cost something (maybe even something plus) but he is hiding in plain site.  The question does he want to go from the first option on terrible teams to the 3rd/4th option on a good team and everything that goes with the drop in importance (defense, hustle, etc).  I could care less about his comments after the trade deadline.  I don't expect it to happen, but his skill set does fit with our team.

Deni will be much harder to get than Kuz because he is a lot better player.

How does Kuz fit this team?  He is an inefficient volume scorer, not a good 3 point shooter, and not a plus defender.  None of that was any different when he played 3rd option behind Beal and KP or when he played on Lakers.  He is who he is.

He would make some sense as a backup 4 providing offense when Luka or Kyrie were not on the court, but I would rather have somebody like Tobias Harris for that role.

I like most of your posts, but Kuz is a strange hill to die on.