Trade & FA 2024-25:

[DanSchwartzgan]

Seems like something is broken when that is being done.

From DJJ perspective, if his option is to sign an effectively 1 year contract that will pay him 22 mil, guarantee he will be traded mid season, and very likely tank his future value vs signing a 3 or 4 year MLE deal which will have more than twice the guaranteed money, you could make a strong financial argument for taking the guaranteed MLE deal.

That's a good point.  3/$40 is greater than 1/$22.  But, if he's only getting offers of 2 years guaranteed, the math shifts pretty quickly.  DJJ has $28mm of lifetime earnings.  I never buy these posts where people say what they think so and so "should" do.  In the end, this is a business and these guys are entertainers.  DJJ has one or two shots to set himself up for life.  He will do the smart financial thing (for him and his agent) over what fans think they would do in the same situation.  So, as you say, one of the keys to a Bruce Brown offer (or not) is what else is out there.

BTW, Toronto hasn't cut Bruce Brown yet (they have until the 28th).  So, he may end up keeping all $45mm.  You never know, but because of the contract structure, I think he effectively has a no-trade clause.

[mvossman]

Sorry to keep responding to myself, but this brings me back to Bogdanovic (Atl Version).  There are multiple paths to someone at his salary level that still leave room to keep either Green or DJJ.  We'd probably be smart to look at guys in this price range rather than the more commonly brought up names in the mid to upper 20 million area.

I like Bogdan the player, but he is going to be 32 and I don't think he can really be your primary POA defender.  Are you thinking as 6th man?  Are we giving up on Hardy?  Are you thinking Timmy + first to basically upgrade Timmy's role?

[DanSchwartzgan]

I'm glad you put these 2 ideas side-by-side, because it highlights a point I've been wanting to make. Which is ....

...If you are a team wanting to turn cap room into a "human TPE" as you term it, why isn't THJ as good for that purpose as DJJ or anyone else? And does THJ being an offensive player perhaps add to his desirability, vs DJJ's lack of offense?

Even though I hear people saying these ideas repeatedly (being said separately), I have a hard time accepting that a team will invest a 22M contract in DJJ, in preference to 16M for THJ.

I think it comes down to the trade after the trade.  

I think the Detroit that wants to push space into 25 and wants a local hero who will take a lot of shots on a bad team takes THJ.

I think the Detroit that wants to target a player they think will be the next Siakam in a TDL deal looks at the larger number (DJJ at $22mm plus Stewart at $15mm for Ingram?).

[mvossman]

That's a good point.  3/$40 is greater than 1/$22.  But, if he's only getting offers of 2 years guaranteed, the math shifts pretty quickly.  DJJ has $28mm of lifetime earnings.  I never buy these posts where people say what they think so and so "should" do.  In the end, this is a business and these guys are entertainers.  DJJ has one or two shots to set himself up for life.  He will do the smart financial thing (for him and his agent) over what fans think they would do in the same situation.  So, as you say, one of the keys to a Bruce Brown offer (or not) is what else is out there.

BTW, Toronto hasn't cut Bruce Brown yet (they have until the 28th).  So, he may end up keeping all $45mm.  You never know, but because of the contract structure, I think he effectively has a no-trade clause.

I would say that Bruce Brown is probably a better player than DJJ and Toronto was stupid not to flip his expiring contract into an asset.  DJJ certainly couldn't count on getting that team option.  I think a 3rd year would be enough, especially if where he plays factors at all into the equation.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I like Bogdan the player, but he is going to be 32 and I don't think he can really be your primary POA defender.  Are you thinking as 6th man?  Are we giving up on Hardy?  Are you thinking Timmy + first to basically upgrade Timmy's role?

Yes, 6th man or feux sixth man (like Lively was in the playoffs).  The other stuff depends on whether you are keeping DJJ or Green.  Age 32 doesn't bother me.  We are looking at a 2-3 year window with the Nash/Finley version of the Mav's.  Once Kyrie ages out or moves on, the next version (with Kidd, Tyson, Terry and Matrix) will look completely different (other than Luka and Lively).

[SleepingHero]

I keep finding people who think we will use THJ (plus draft capital) to improve rather than a salary dump.  Windhorst said as much on the Pat MacAfee show yesterday.  As I've said all along, paying assets to stand still isn't something a contender typically does.  

I'm also finding more people who think DJJ is a candidate to get a Bruce Brown pay day.  Below is Kevin Pelton's write up on DJJ.  He mentions Detroit or OKC.  Remember, the Bruce Brown contract wasn't about how Brown fit on the Pacers.  It was about creating a contract that can be traded that leaves the current core in tact.  Basically, a human TPE that helps teams meet the minimum salary requirement and is more flexible in a trade than an actual TPE.

As others have pointed out, there are other options.  The most likely alternatives are 

1. Dump THJ and use Green+ to upgrade (I suspect Green+ is more valuable than THJ+, but the salary match with Green brings back less).  

2. Dump Green for an asset.  Use THJ+, (plus the asset from the Green trade) to upgrade.  As I've said, Green fits into the NT MLE which can be used for trades.  That opens up many more possible teams than finding a cap room team to absorb enough of the THJ salary to matter in a DJJ signing.

My position would be that if THJ+ gets you a starter, I don't bother to move Green to keep DJJ as a backup.  Green/OMax is just fine there.  But, if Green outgoing is required to get the new starter you want, then you do that and figure out the bench situation later.


DDDerrick Jones Jr., F
Kevin Pelton's top-20 free agent ranking: Not ranked
The deal I'd offer: Two years, $44 million with a team option in the last year
Best free agent fits: Dallas, Detroit and Oklahoma City

Teams are fully aware that the $22 million per year contract is something Jones' current team, Dallas, cannot offer. Because Jones signed a one-year contract and the Mavericks are straddled on the tax line, the maximum starting salary is $5.2 million.

A $22 million salary is an overpay, especially for a player who has never averaged more than 9 points in a season. But remember, teams are mandated to spend at least 90% of the $141 million salary cap by the first day of the regular season.

We saw last offseason Indiana sign Bruce Brown Jr. to a two-year, $45 million contract but with a team option in the last season. He was eventually sent to Toronto as part of the Pascal Siakam trade.
A $44-million contract is a win-win for Jones and his new team.

The first-year salary nearly equals Jones' career earnings, and his new team has a tradable contract but also a veteran player who can impact the game on defense.

For the first time in his career, Jones recorded at least 50 blocks and steals. He ranked in the top 10 in total defensive half-court matchups vs. 2024 All-Stars and effective field goal percentage allowed vs. 2024 All-Stars among them to defend 150-plus shots, according to Second Spectrum.

It's interesting Pelton is saying the deal he'd offer is 2/44. The only teams that can offer that this summer:

• DET (64.4 mil space)
  
• PHI (55.5 mil space)
  
• ORL (49.7 mil space)
  
• UTA (38.1 mil space)
  
• OKC (35.2 mil space)
  

Now lets take Pelton's rumor at face value. Lets say he heard from a team considering this contract. Who could it be? 

OKC could make sense. They have the space and DJJ would be a good guy off the bench backing up Dort. But I wouldn't say a lanky defender who isn't a great shooter is a primary need of theirs. They'd be left with around 13mil left of space. Based on how the center market is looking, that is likely pricing them out of many impact centers to pair up with Chet. But the fact DJJ could be used as a potential trade chip is the most attractive offer for OKC. They can use him much like IND used Brown. I can see the value for OKC there. I don't think they'd pivot from "get a real center next to Chet" mindset this summer though, and they've been connected to Hartenstein, Claxton, and even Valanciunas. The first 2 will cost more than 20 mil. The last one might be had for 13. 


UTA doesn't really make any sense at all. They are balancing a Lauri extension on their hands which will eat around 15 mil of their current cap space. If they offered 22 mil for DJJ, that's basically their entire summer until the TDL. They aren't 1 guy away from competing in the west. So I'm going to nix them.

ORL seems to have their sights set on shooting. How many long lanky defenders do they need? I've seen them rumored with Lavine, to Klay, to even Buddy Hield. I don't think they make sense as a dance partner for DJJ.

PHI is interesting. They have more than enough cap space to offer DJJ his 22 mil and then still go out and get an impact player. The latest rumor is that they're going to throw a big contract at KCP and lure him away from Denver. I don't think they're going to get a guy like Paul George, but if they're trying to trade for Jimmy Butler, DJJ and KCP are off the table. Because of that I think they're going to be too focused on the bigger fish before looking at DJJ. 

Lastly DET. Another interesting candidate. I think they are a sneaky dark horse in this mostly because I don't think any impact free agent is seriously considering Detroit. They have all that money but no one to spend it on. They are also desperate for good players. DJJ makes a lot of sense there even if he probably won't live up to anything near his 2/44 deal. Detroit still has 40 mil to throw at Tobias Harris, Miles Bridges,  or whatever 2nd tier free agent that wants a big payday. 



So out of this list, it seems like OKC or DET are the ones that are putting out those rumors of a Bruce Brown type deal. I don't find it likely, but they are definitely threats. Especially OKC if they're trying to take a page out of IND's book. I still think the Mavs are in the drivers seat if they carve out MLE level space for him because DJJ has said he wants to come back.

I do want to mention a thought that has been creeping up these last couple of days has been, if the Mavs want to upgrade DJJ's spot, does DJJ even want to come back and play off the bench? And do the Mavs want to push all their chips in to getting the biggest contract possible for DJJ?

I'm not sure. I think if the Mavs could choose, they'd find a player like Avdija/Grant/ whatever to start, AND bring back DJJ just because his fit was so good.

Interesting to see how this shakes out. If DJJ leaves and the Mavs can't find any suitable replacement I'm going to be quite angry.

[mvossman]

Yes, 6th man or feux sixth man (like Lively was in the playoffs).  The other stuff depends on whether you are keeping DJJ or Green.  Age 32 doesn't bother me.  We are looking at a 2-3 year window with the Nash/Finley version of the Mav's.  Once Kyrie ages out or moves on, the next version (with Kidd, Tyson, Terry and Matrix) will look completely different (other than Luka and Lively).

Hmmm.  I guess I don't look at it that way.  In 2-3 years PJ, DJJ, Green and Gafford will all be in their primes.  Hardy and Omax will be approaching theirs.  In a couple of years we could trade expiring contracts and hoarded picks for a legit high level two way wing, and at some point Kyrie transitions to 6th man.  I see a possible future where this team does not look that different in three years other than the big acquisition.

[HAguiar95]

I would love to be the team to land Mario Hezonja as a reclamation project (kinda like Exum).

Liked his stint in ORL, can defend and hit 43% from deep this last Euoleague.

[mvossman]

I do want to mention a thought that has been creeping up these last couple of days has been, if the Mavs want to upgrade DJJ's spot, does DJJ even want to come back and play off the bench? And do the Mavs want to push all their chips in to getting the biggest contract possible for DJJ?

I'm not sure. I think if the Mavs could choose, they'd find a player like Avdija/Grant/ whatever to start, AND bring back DJJ just because his fit was so good.

Interesting to see how this shakes out. If DJJ leaves and the Mavs can't find any suitable replacement I'm going to be quite angry.

Its hard to imagine DJJ starting on any other team.  Dallas was kind of a unique situation.  My guess is DJJ would not be disgruntled coming off the bench for us as long as he got his minutes (he said as much in an interview during the season, and given his history it make sense).

[F Gump]

BTW, Toronto hasn't cut Bruce Brown yet (they have until the 28th).  So, he may end up keeping all $45mm.  You never know, but because of the contract structure, I think he effectively has a no-trade clause.

I have a hard time seeing TOR exercise that TO for Brown unless some team wants to trade for Brown on a 1-year deal making $23M.

The only no-trade that exists for Brown is that his TO has not been exercised, and you can't trade a player whose contract has ended. But Brown can be traded at will, once/if his TO is exercised. There are no trade restrictions.

I think it's more likely Brown is a UFA in the summer, and maybe TOR participates in a SNT and gets some value. Or maybe not.

Wonder what sort of deal he would get as a FA. No way it's 22M.

[mvossman]

I have a hard time seeing TOR exercise that TO for Brown unless some team wants to trade for Brown on a 1-year deal making $23M.

The only no-trade that exists for Brown is that his TO has not been exercised, and you can't trade a player whose contract has ended. But Brown can be traded at will, once/if his TO is exercised. There are no trade restrictions.

I think it's more likely Brown is a UFA in the summer, and maybe TOR participates in a SNT and gets some value. Or maybe not.

Wonder what sort of deal he would get as a FA. No way it's 22M.

I think he would be an MLE candidate just like DJJ, and likely the preferred option.

[loki]

My position would be that if THJ+ gets you a starter, I don't bother to move Green to keep DJJ as a backup.  Green/OMax is just fine there.  But, if Green outgoing is required to get the new starter you want, then you do that and figure out the bench situation later.

It depends what type of starter we're talking about in a THJ+ trade. If he can be the primary POA defender, no need for DJJ. If he's more of a shooter/3rd option that is average defensively, I'd rather have DJJ back.

[loki]

Seems like something is broken when that is being done.

Maybe it's time to get rid of salary matching entirely? It seems that there are plenty of other mechanicsms to limit spending.

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
Eric Gordon is “50/50” on whether he will exercise his $3.4 million player option next season with the Suns, per @KellyIko (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5574543...ed_article).

Gordon would attract plenty of interest from contending teams after averaging 11.0 points per game with Phoenix.

[SleepingHero]

Evan Sidery (@esidery)
Eric Gordon is “50/50” on whether he will exercise his $3.4 million player option next season with the Suns, per @KellyIko (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5574543...ed_article).

Gordon would attract plenty of interest from contending teams after averaging 11.0 points per game with Phoenix.

For a vet min and THJ replacement, Gordon is intriguing.

Especially if the Mavs are probably going to do a 2+1 trade with THJ+Green. Lets say they get the Avdija trade I'm clamoring for (whereas THJ to DET, Green to WAS, Avdija to Dallas and we retain DJJ) 

Luka/Exum
Kyrie/Hardy/Gordon
Avdija/DJJ/
PJ/Maxi/OMax/Morris
Gafford/Lively/Powell

Pretty solid 14 man roster

[Jason Terry]

Hmmm.  I guess I don't look at it that way.  In 2-3 years PJ, DJJ, Green and Gafford will all be in their primes.  Hardy and Omax will be approaching theirs.  In a couple of years we could trade expiring contracts and hoarded picks for a legit high level two way wing, and at some point Kyrie transitions to 6th man.  I see a possible future where this team does not look that different in three years other than the big acquisition.

I think it’s somewhere in the middle of what you and Dan are suggesting 

I see the window as exactly 2 more years. Summer of 2026 we have huge cap space. Kyrie(PO), PJ, Gafford, Maxi, Powell are all FA’s. Lively and O-Max are entering the final year of their rookie deals. Luka is on the last year of his cheap max and extending. The only real money is Green’s expiring deal. It’s the perfect time to make big moves and it’s why I’m cool with trading 2025 but not 2031. 

DJJ at 2/24 would fit neatly with the rest of our contracts

End result 2 years from now i think will be something like: 

Luka, Lively, maybe Omax as the  young core

PJ is extended 

Gafford and Jones Jr walk

Maxi enters his JJ phase and starts taking minimums

Powell retires after we win the championship 

Green and Hardy both traded 

Kyrie moves to more of a 6th man 

So i see 5 maybe 6 players from this team being here for the next iteration of the Luka Era Mavs

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I like Bogdan the player, but he is going to be 32 and I don't think he can really be your primary POA defender.  Are you thinking as 6th man?  Are we giving up on Hardy?  Are you thinking Timmy + first to basically upgrade Timmy's role?

I love his game, but without looking I'd say he's spent more time in street clothes than a Hawks jersey.  Even with that being said, he's >>>> THJ.

[KillerLeft]

Jerami Grant makes more than 100% of the outgoing.  

Amazing stuff today, Dan, thanks!

Just for my edification, could you lay out how/what would make a Grant trade, specifically, possible?

[SleepingHero]

@esidery
The reason why Pascal Siakam refused to be traded to the Kings, who were extremely interested, was due to past comments made by their front office about his game, per
@sam_amick
(https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cgezCuPk3d0&t=642s):

“The way it was framed to me — in an attempt to drive down what it would take to get him — some gossipy-type feedback on his game had gotten back to him.”

Sacramento and the Pacers were the two teams most interested in acquiring Siakam before being traded away from the Raptors.

[KillerLeft]

I'm glad you put these 2 ideas side-by-side, because it highlights a point I've been wanting to make. Which is ....

...If you are a team wanting to turn cap room into a "human TPE" as you term it, why isn't THJ as good for that purpose as DJJ or anyone else? And does THJ being an offensive player perhaps add to his desirability, vs DJJ's lack of offense?

Even though I hear people saying these ideas repeatedly (being said separately), I have a hard time accepting that a team will invest a 22M contract in DJJ, in preference to 16M for THJ.

I guess the argument in favor of going one way over the other brings us back to what's best for the new team ON COURT, although I think you make an excellent point here. And, in Detroit's case, specifically, I'm not sure it matters, since both players are too old to be relevant the next time the Pistons will be.