Trade & FA 2024-25:

[Jason Terry]

Shake Milton ended the season on the Knicks after Detroit released him. And Troy Brown was waived.

Hoopshype info sucks I’m looking at the wrong thing

[Jason Terry]

Okay so Hardaway for Gabe Vincent ? Bounce back candidate. So let’s say the Lakers keep Lebron and trade picks and players for Trae Young or someone. Vincent needs to go. Team trading star will only want back expiring. Boom. We take the risk on Vincent. We dump Hardaway with no picks. And i think that opens up more for DJJ

I like this as a low cost solution if Sexton and Brogdon are too expensive

That type of scorer could really ease the burden on Luka/Kyrie and help us more than anything next year.

[audiosway]

You are talking about a very young team that just made the finals.  I'm not sure they need to do anything other than maybe retain DJJ.  Given their limited assets, you could make a strong argument that they should simply focus on holding on to him and improve around the edges.  But that's not very fun to talk about.

I agree. I literally think they just need to trade THJ for space to resign DJJ. Then, I would look at adding one more defensive wing (3&D) for the bench as well as a shooter that is a lights out shooter.

Then, just watch the kids grow. Coach these guys up. They are literally just growth and a bench shooter away from winning a title.

[SleepingHero]

@LegionHoops
James Harden and Daryl Morey’s falling out could affect the 76ers potential pursuit of Paul George.

Paul George: “Believe it or not, players talk. And then reputations go around, like, ‘Hey man, I don’t know about going to this place, because they… [shoot]. Watch your back, you know what I mean?’ That’s the conversations you have.”

[Branduil]

Inspired by the Jason Timpf video that KL linked, I found data on pivotfade that allow you to view stats on above the break 3's only. Here are the top 9 Mavs. The bench mob actually shoots it reasonably well, but not on enough volume to make a huge impact. We could expect a healthy Luka to be better next time around, but PJ+DJJ are definitely big concerns. THJ is useless and will kill the Mavs next season if he's still on the roster.



Of the few players from other teams I've looked at so far, Gary Trent Jr seems to stand out. He's made at least 38% of his ATB 3's each of the last 5 seasons. He also hit 51.3% of his wide open 3's on 3.3 attempts/game last season. That's double Exum's volume.

Thanks for pointing out that website, I decided to look up a couple of my favorite targets:

Jerami Grant: 36.8% ATB, 46%(!) corner
Deandre Hunter: 37.4% ATB, 40.6% corner

I really am warming up to the idea of getting one of these guys. I think we would probably not be able to keep DJJ (definitely not with Grant), but ideally Omax and another TPE signing could make up for that. Adding that 3rd guy who can shoot and score 15ppg really would make a huge difference for this offense, I think.

[Jym]

Thanks for pointing out that website, I decided to look up a couple of my favorite targets:

Jerami Grant: 36.8% ATB, 46%(!) corner
Deandre Hunter: 37.4% ATB, 40.6% corner

I really am warming up to the idea of getting one of these guys. I think we would probably not be able to keep DJJ (definitely not with Grant), but ideally Omax and another TPE signing could make up for that. Adding that 3rd guy who can shoot and score 15ppg really would make a huge difference for this offense, I think.

I like the idea of Hunter 
correct age, size, and we should be able to get him using minimal assets 
just hard to quantify the defensive numbers. Pretty bad the past couple years but most people's numbers would be bad in that Atlanta situation. We don't need him to be a one man stopper. Just need someone smart enough to be in the right spots with the right size

[KillerLeft]

Jerami Grant: 36.8% ATB, 46%(!) corner

Feels like we talk about him a lot, but this time I think he's actually kind of a dark horse trade target here. As others have said, the most likely thing is probably for Dallas just to scramble around to keep the group together, bringing back DJJ. But, if they DO make a big swing. I'd look at a guy like that way before I'd look at LeBron, Paul George, etc. The high salary makes it tough, but he checks the right boxes, isn't in a good situation, is very likely to be moved, and is now probably looking at Dallas as a more favorable destination than he has in the past. Just saying, he's a guy I'll be keeping my eye on (not to be taken as a prediction). 

I'm also kinda/sorta wondering what it might take to get Klay Thompson here. I thought about him in Dallas for a while earlier today and warmed up to the idea much more than I expected. I just don't know what avenues/mechanisms are available to get it done. 

Hunter...I like. He's one of those guys who's overrated by everyone but his own fans, I think, and I don't think he'd be an improvement over DJJ or even Green, really, but another interesting name to throw into the mix. Still in "interesting potential" mode, and you'd be buying low since he's coming off of a disappointing stretch of his career. Then again, so was PJ.

[Smitty]

Inspired by the Jason Timpf video that KL linked, I found data on pivotfade that allow you to view stats on above the break 3's only. Here are the top 9 Mavs. The bench mob actually shoots it reasonably well, but not on enough volume to make a huge impact. We could expect a healthy Luka to be better next time around, but PJ+DJJ are definitely big concerns. THJ is useless and will kill the Mavs next season if he's still on the roster.

If only Green and Exum had the same green light and confidence of THJ… would fix the shooting issue over night.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I keep finding people who think we will use THJ (plus draft capital) to improve rather than a salary dump.  Windhorst said as much on the Pat MacAfee show yesterday.  As I've said all along, paying assets to stand still isn't something a contender typically does.  

I'm also finding more people who think DJJ is a candidate to get a Bruce Brown pay day.  Below is Kevin Pelton's write up on DJJ.  He mentions Detroit or OKC.  Remember, the Bruce Brown contract wasn't about how Brown fit on the Pacers.  It was about creating a contract that can be traded that leaves the current core in tact.  Basically, a human TPE that helps teams meet the minimum salary requirement and is more flexible in a trade than an actual TPE.

As others have pointed out, there are other options.  The most likely alternatives are 

1. Dump THJ and use Green+ to upgrade (I suspect Green+ is more valuable than THJ+, but the salary match with Green brings back less).  

2. Dump Green for an asset.  Use THJ+, (plus the asset from the Green trade) to upgrade.  As I've said, Green fits into the NT MLE which can be used for trades.  That opens up many more possible teams than finding a cap room team to absorb enough of the THJ salary to matter in a DJJ signing.

My position would be that if THJ+ gets you a starter, I don't bother to move Green to keep DJJ as a backup.  Green/OMax is just fine there.  But, if Green outgoing is required to get the new starter you want, then you do that and figure out the bench situation later.


DDDerrick Jones Jr., F
Kevin Pelton's top-20 free agent ranking: Not ranked
The deal I'd offer: Two years, $44 million with a team option in the last year
Best free agent fits: Dallas, Detroit and Oklahoma City

Teams are fully aware that the $22 million per year contract is something Jones' current team, Dallas, cannot offer. Because Jones signed a one-year contract and the Mavericks are straddled on the tax line, the maximum starting salary is $5.2 million.

A $22 million salary is an overpay, especially for a player who has never averaged more than 9 points in a season. But remember, teams are mandated to spend at least 90% of the $141 million salary cap by the first day of the regular season.

We saw last offseason Indiana sign Bruce Brown Jr. to a two-year, $45 million contract but with a team option in the last season. He was eventually sent to Toronto as part of the Pascal Siakam trade.
A $44-million contract is a win-win for Jones and his new team.

The first-year salary nearly equals Jones' career earnings, and his new team has a tradable contract but also a veteran player who can impact the game on defense.

For the first time in his career, Jones recorded at least 50 blocks and steals. He ranked in the top 10 in total defensive half-court matchups vs. 2024 All-Stars and effective field goal percentage allowed vs. 2024 All-Stars among them to defend 150-plus shots, according to Second Spectrum.

[SleepingHero]

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania)
Mario Hezonja has an NBA-out until July 19 this summer as part of extension with Euroleague's Real Madrid, and sources say he is receiving interest from multiple teams to return to NBA. The five-year NBA veteran averaged 11.9 points and 4.4 rebounds for Real Madrid in 2023-24.

[Mavs2021]

Inspired by the Jason Timpf video that KL linked, I found data on pivotfade that allow you to view stats on above the break 3's only. Here are the top 9 Mavs. The bench mob actually shoots it reasonably well, but not on enough volume to make a huge impact. We could expect a healthy Luka to be better next time around, but PJ+DJJ are definitely big concerns. THJ is useless and will kill the Mavs next season if he's still on the roster.



Of the few players from other teams I've looked at so far, Gary Trent Jr seems to stand out. He's made at least 38% of his ATB 3's each of the last 5 seasons. He also hit 51.3% of his wide open 3's on 3.3 attempts/game last season. That's double Exum's volume.

I think we need to see what Green and Hardy can do off the ball and forced into a high volume of shots in the 1st half of the season. It´s basically time to force Green to shoot and to let Hardy shoot. Just need a better offensive system than heroball to maximize their shooting skills.

---------------

I go a little off the beaten path, but two trades I think are fairly realistic:

1. Thybulle + 34th pick + 40th pick for our 2025 lottery protected + THJ (imho you might even be able to go even higher in the protection)

Thybulle is a much better player in theory than in reality. I think the Blazers care about him as much as we do about THJ, but Thybulle´s contract is longer. 

Problem: The Blazers roster is already expensive for their record. They might be more interested to shed current salary in their transactions than add some. So this deal might need a 3rd party or requires other financially benefitial trades from the Blazers end (Grant, Brogdon, R. Williams).

2. Jalen Smith S&T + 36th pick for Kleber + Powell + 58th pick

Smith is an UFA, so the Pacers have little leverage and Kleber could be a real useful player to them. We add Powell to gain maximum financial flexibility.

Problem: While I believe the Pacers would gladly do this deal without Powell, he might be a deal breaker. But that´s a situation that can be resolved using the Pistons cap dumpster. Powell´s contract is only $4M so a little cash and one of the three 2nd rounders might have to be re-routed to Detroit.

Player                  Salary           Notes
1 Doncic              43,031,940
2 Irving               41,000,000     ULTBE $1,000,000
3 THJ                  16,193,183
3 PJ Washington   15,500,000     ULTBE $500,000
4 Gafford             13,394,160
5 Green               12,654,321
6 Thybulle           11,025,000
7 Maxi                 11,000,000
7 DJJ                  10,000,000
8 Jalen Smith        7,500,000 
9 Lively                 5,014,560
9 Powell                4,000,000
10 Exum               3,150,000     Team Option 6/28
11 Omax               2,870,400
12 Lawson             2,120,683     NG
13 Hardy               2,019,699     NG
14 Morris               2,093,637
15 2nd round pick  2,000,000

Dead                     2,208,856    McGee

Total Salary (including unlikely bonuses)        177,079

Doncic/Exum/2nd round pick
Irving/Hardy/Green
DJJ/Thybulle/Lawson
Washington/Smith/OMax
Lively/Gafford/Morris

You got the #34 + #36 + #40 pick for a lottery protected 1st. You can pick Dadiet, Djurisic or/and Nunez to stash them overseas. You can potentially take Bronny.

Only problem is that it does not solve the PG/3rd scoring guard problem, but maybe you delay that until the TDL or worst case next summer.

[mvossman]

I keep finding people who think we will use THJ (plus draft capital) to improve rather than a salary dump.  Windhorst said as much on the Pat MacAfee show yesterday.  As I've said all along, paying assets to stand still isn't something a contender typically does.  

I'm also finding more people who think DJJ is a candidate to get a Bruce Brown pay day.  Below is Kevin Pelton's write up on DJJ.  He mentions Detroit or OKC.  Remember, the Bruce Brown contract wasn't about how Brown fit on the Pacers.  It was about creating a contract that can be traded that leaves the current core in tact.  Basically, a human TPE that helps teams meet the minimum salary requirement and is more flexible in a trade than an actual TPE.

As others have pointed out, there are other options.  The most likely alternatives are 

1. Dump THJ and use Green+ to upgrade (I suspect Green+ is more valuable than THJ+, but the salary match with Green brings back less).  

2. Dump Green for an asset.  Use THJ+, (plus the asset from the Green trade) to upgrade.  As I've said, Green fits into the NT MLE which can be used for trades.  That opens up many more possible teams than finding a cap room team to absorb enough of the THJ salary to matter in a DJJ signing.

My position would be that if THJ+ gets you a starter, I don't bother to move Green to keep DJJ as a backup.  Green/OMax is just fine there.  But, if Green outgoing is required to get the new starter you want, then you do that and figure out the bench situation later.


DDDerrick Jones Jr., F
Kevin Pelton's top-20 free agent ranking: Not ranked
The deal I'd offer: Two years, $44 million with a team option in the last year
Best free agent fits: Dallas, Detroit and Oklahoma City

Teams are fully aware that the $22 million per year contract is something Jones' current team, Dallas, cannot offer. Because Jones signed a one-year contract and the Mavericks are straddled on the tax line, the maximum starting salary is $5.2 million.

A $22 million salary is an overpay, especially for a player who has never averaged more than 9 points in a season. But remember, teams are mandated to spend at least 90% of the $141 million salary cap by the first day of the regular season.

We saw last offseason Indiana sign Bruce Brown Jr. to a two-year, $45 million contract but with a team option in the last season. He was eventually sent to Toronto as part of the Pascal Siakam trade.
A $44-million contract is a win-win for Jones and his new team.

The first-year salary nearly equals Jones' career earnings, and his new team has a tradable contract but also a veteran player who can impact the game on defense.

For the first time in his career, Jones recorded at least 50 blocks and steals. He ranked in the top 10 in total defensive half-court matchups vs. 2024 All-Stars and effective field goal percentage allowed vs. 2024 All-Stars among them to defend 150-plus shots, according to Second Spectrum.

I will believe DJJ gets a 22 mil offer when I see it.  If it does happen, seems like there is something broke with the system.

[Mavs2021]

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania)
Mario Hezonja has an NBA-out until July 19 this summer as part of extension with Euroleague's Real Madrid, and sources say he is receiving interest from multiple teams to return to NBA. The five-year NBA veteran averaged 11.9 points and 4.4 rebounds for Real Madrid in 2023-24.

Probably not available for the minimum though. 

I´d still look at Isaac Bonga at age 24, especially if we should lose DJJ. He can play a little bit of everything from 1 through 5 on offense and defense. I think he has the physical tools of J. Isaac (see his block against Bridges at the end of the WC semifinal against Team USA), but sometimes the understanding/reading of the game of Jahlil Okafor.

Three point percentages: 43% (World Cup), 46% (German League), 30% (EuroLeague) on very low volume overall 2.5 attempts/per game. Ultimately he´d be another gamble like Exum.

[Mavs2021]

I will believe DJJ gets a 22 mil offer when I see it.  If it does happen, seems like there is something broke with the system.

....as a not top 20 ranked free agent according to Pelton.

Also team changes last summer:

1. FVV 43M p.a.
2. Brooks 21.5M p.a.
3. Strus 15.6M p.a.

So even with the smoothened cap explosion that means DJJ would likely be the second most valuable player to change teams. Maybe if everybody else stays where they are (PG13, Harden, Harris, LeBron, Thompson, Hartenstein, Monk) and a large part of capspace remains un-used (Orlando, Philly). These teams might be tempted.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 

As others have pointed out, there are other options.  The most likely alternatives are 

1. Dump THJ and use Green+ to upgrade (I suspect Green+ is more valuable than THJ+, but the salary match with Green brings back less).  

2. Dump Green for an asset.  Use THJ+, (plus the asset from the Green trade) to upgrade.  As I've said, Green fits into the NT MLE which can be used for trades.  That opens up many more possible teams than finding a cap room team to absorb enough of the THJ salary to matter in a DJJ signing.

My position would be that if THJ+ gets you a starter, I don't bother to move Green to keep DJJ as a backup.  Green/OMax is just fine there.  But, if Green outgoing is required to get the new starter you want, then you do that and figure out the bench situation later.
 

The third option is to combine THJ and Green to bring back a more expensive player than can be acquired by one of them and then fill the vacated 14th roster spot with an exception (vet minimum or TP MLE).  Just bear in mind that anything over 100% of outgoing hard caps you at the first apron and a S&T also hard caps you at the first apron.  A $28mm player replacing THJ and a minimum replacing Josh leaves you $1.1mm under the apron.

Jerami Grant makes more than 100% of the outgoing.  Wiggins, Simon, Draymond, Kuzma, Hunter ect. make less than 100% of the outgoing (if Green and THJ are combined).  But, the bigger the salary of the incoming player, the less likely you are keeping DJJ.  So, proposals to get Simon (to pick a name) don't leave you enough room under the apron to keep DJJ.  So, Simon is replacing THJ, Green and DJJ if you do a 2 for 1 at that salary level.

Deals where people are suggesting we get Hunter (to pick a name) in a trade match for Hardaway have to realize that such a deal hard caps you and requires a second deal to send out additional salary to stay under the apron. 

A sign and trade (say Thompson) is also a hard cap event.  But, you can make it work as long as you are mindful of the apron.  For instance, THJ/Green for a S&T Thompson at $28mm means you are done.  THJ/Green for Thompson at $20mm means you have room under the apron to do other things (maybe DJJ at something under the NT MLE).

[mvossman]

I go a little off the beaten path, but two trades I think are fairly realistic:

1. Thybulle + 34th pick + 40th pick for our 2025 lottery protected + THJ (imho you might even be able to go even higher in the protection)

Thybulle is a much better player in theory than in reality. I think the Blazers care about him as much as we do about THJ, but Thybulle´s contract is longer. 

2. Jalen Smith S&T + 36th pick for Kleber + Powell + 58th pick

Smith is an UFA, so the Pacers have little leverage and Kleber could be a real useful player to them. We add Powell to gain maximum financial flexibility.

I think you are underestimating how bad Thybulle is on offense.  He is roughly the same animal as DJJ from 3, but he literally does nothing else.  The goal is to improve the offense without taking a significant hit defensively.  Thybulle would be going the wrong way.

I also think you are overestimating Maxi market value.  He is very likely a negative asset due to his age, health concerns and contract.  Why wouldn't Indy just keep Jalen, who is 23 and just had his best year?

[DanSchwartzgan]

I will believe DJJ gets a 22 mil offer when I see it.  If it does happen, seems like there is something broke with the system.

It doesn't have to be DJJ, but some smart team will use players as human TPE's.  There is just too much incentive to do so as a roster building tool (and to few alternatives now).  It is a copy cat league and we just saw Indy get an All-NBA level player without disturbing their core because of what they did with Bruce Brown.

I think an interesting question is what is more appealing to Detroit if they don't find a good player for their cap room...

1. Take a second to get THJ's expiring contract
2. Sign DJJ as a human TPE to be traded later for something big without impacting their core.

[mvossman]

It doesn't have to be DJJ, but some smart team will use players as human TPE's.  There is just too much incentive to do so as a roster building tool (and to few alternatives now).  It is a copy cat league and we just saw Indy get an All-NBA level player without disturbing their core because of what they did with Bruce Brown.

I think an interesting question is what is more appealing to Detroit if they don't find a good player for their cap room...

1. Take a second to get THJ's expiring contract
2. Sign DJJ as a human TPE to be traded later for something big without impacting their core.

Seems like something is broken when that is being done.

From DJJ perspective, if his option is to sign an effectively 1 year contract that will pay him 22 mil, guarantee he will be traded mid season, and very likely tank his future value vs signing a 3 or 4 year MLE deal which will have more than twice the guaranteed money, you could make a strong financial argument for taking the guaranteed MLE deal.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Jerami Grant makes more than 100% of the outgoing.  Wiggins, Simon, Draymond, Kuzma, Hunter ect. make less than 100% of the outgoing (if Green and THJ are combined).  But, the bigger the salary of the incoming player, the less likely you are keeping DJJ.  So, proposals to get Simon (to pick a name) don't leave you enough room under the apron to keep DJJ.  So, Simon is replacing THJ, Green and DJJ if you do a 2 for 1 at that salary level.

Sorry to keep responding to myself, but this brings me back to Bogdanovic (Atl Version).  There are multiple paths to someone at his salary level that still leave room to keep either Green or DJJ.  We'd probably be smart to look at guys in this price range rather than the more commonly brought up names in the mid to upper 20 million area.

[F Gump]

I think an interesting question is what is more appealing to Detroit if they don't find a good player for their cap room...

1. Take a second to get THJ's expiring contract
2. Sign DJJ as a human TPE to be traded later for something big without impacting their core.

I'm glad you put these 2 ideas side-by-side, because it highlights a point I've been wanting to make. Which is ....

...If you are a team wanting to turn cap room into a "human TPE" as you term it, why isn't THJ as good for that purpose as DJJ or anyone else? And does THJ being an offensive player perhaps add to his desirability, vs DJJ's lack of offense?

Even though I hear people saying these ideas repeatedly (being said separately), I have a hard time accepting that a team will invest a 22M contract in DJJ, in preference to 16M for THJ.