Trade & FA 2023-24: Sexton On the Market? | ORL Likes Hartenstein?

[KillerLeft]

I would argue that a lot of players of his size age would not try to Superman from behind the foul line. I can’t for the life of me get what he was trying to do there

Well, yeah. There is that. 

All I'm saying is that while the timing of this sucks (a lot), it's not another lower body injury, or that back thing he was always dealing with.

[mvossman]

So (and please, correct me if I'm wrong), getting enough room to go over the tax MLE will require moving THJ, Green or Gafford, right, and the question is HOW they move one of those guys. Like, we're hoping they can do so productively to bring in at leas one usable player or draft capital while still accomplishing the savings, rather than just dumping one of them for air. 

Do I have the right situation in mind, or is there something I'm missing? 

Because if that's the crux of it, it's got to be THJ. I'd agree with you that Green would be my next choice before Gafford, but I also think THJ is probably the least likely to be used in a productive deal we LIKE (though it's not impossible). 

Is it fair to say a move that opens up the MLE for DJJ and accomplishes something productive, like adding a player or draft capital, might require moving TWO of those guys?

It might actually be easier to move Timmy in a salary matching deal where we are sending out additional assets then dumping him because the focus is the assets we are sending out and Tim is salary ballast. 

If we are getting a player back it will very likely require two going out. Even something like Tim for Grimes does not get you all the way to MLE

[KillerLeft]

It might actually be easier to move Timmy in a salary matching deal where we are sending out additional assets then dumping him because the focus is the assets we are sending out and Tim is salary ballast. 

If we are getting a player back it will very likely require two going out. Even something like Tim for Grimes does not get you all the way to MLE

Yeah, I’m just asking the question because I’m not sure we’re all thinking realistically.

IF Jones really has earned himself a payday north of the tax MLE (that’s an if, not the certainty it’s being made out to be, but it’s obviously possible), then it kind of seems more likely than we want to believe that he doesn’t play here next year. And, if they do get him the full MLE, I feel like somebody this board really likes is going to be gone.

[F Gump]

We should probably bring TPE's into this discussion.  Some of the list below can be used either in a June trade or a July trade and some are obviously not realistic possibilities or have trouble being legal besides the two I'll note below.

Atlanta and Brooklyn currently have TPE's large enough to take on THJ

Additionally, Memphis can take on Green on his 24/25 salary next season

Additionally, Chicago, Detroit, NY, Philly, Portland, Toronto, Utah and Washington have TPE's large enough to take on Green's number in the current season.  I haven't checked hard-caps or other reasons some of these might not work.  For instance, Miami and Phoenix also have a TPE of this size, but would not be able to use it because of their salary status.

Any team that can use their NT MLE next season can use it like a TPE and take on Green since his salary is less than the projected NT MLE.

Dallas has two TPE's ($4.95 and $4.0) it can use to facilitate a trade that isn't a salary match.
 
There are more paths available to us to reduce salary for DJJ (and possibly add an asset) than we've really explored fully in these discussions.  I'm not a fan of trading Green, but his contract amount appears to have been set in a way it could easily be traded under the new MLE rules that start this coming season.  If you do that and create the room needed for DJJ (it would need to be a bit under the NT MLE, but well more than the TP MLE according to FG's numbers), then you still have THJ's contract (and 2025) to use to add an upgrade.  We can afford two outgoing players for one returning player if that one returning player upgrades the THJ/Green minutes while also getting us the money needed to keep DJJ.

This is helpful. But there are some real issues that significantly reduce the availability of these sort of possibilities.

They all revolve around cap room, or rather the lack of it. Most teams (more than half, I believe) are going to be dealing with Apron 1 issues, which means there won't be NT MLE that can be used at all. In addition, using a TPE will exacerbate whatever payroll issues they are otherwise dealing with. And what happens in June impacts what you can do in July - if you do something in June that would have created a hard cap, that hard cap is set at that point for the whole 2024-25 season.

I posted lists a bit earlier in this thread. There should be 6 teams operating as "under the cap" teams (PHI, DET, UTA, ORL, SA, OKC). [Side note - I am very disinterested in any trade that involves OKC and helps them get better (which is the only reason they would do a trade). Just saying.]

But there will be MANY teams at the other end of the payroll scale, who will be close enough to Apron 1 (or beyond) where absorbing extra salary in a matching trade or using the NT MLE to absorb a salary like Green is ruled out.
 
The ones that are left? At a glance, I only see HOU, BKN, WAS, CHI, TOR, CHA, IND?. I didn't do a deep dive, so I might be missing a team or 2 - and some of those I listed may have internal priorities for their money that eats up their ability to do anything.

Also, a note about Green - he's poison pill until June 30, so there's not cap room for a team to take him in June. Only the 2 teams you've noted with larger TPE's (ATL, BKN) could take him in June, and ATL has issues already of too much payroll to deal with.

Also a note about DAL TPE's - "Dallas has two TPE's ($4.95 and $4.0) it can use to facilitate a trade that isn't a salary match." ... I would think these are really not in play (except in technical TPE accounting in trades), unless DJJ will do a TxMLE 1+1, because they add salary when the Mavs are in dire need of reducing it. DJJ doing a 1+1 would be huge for the Mavs roster building possibilities.

[KillerLeft]

We should probably bring TPE's into this discussion.  Some of the list below can be used either in a June trade or a July trade and some are obviously not realistic possibilities or have trouble being legal besides the two I'll note below.

Atlanta and Brooklyn currently have TPE's large enough to take on THJ

Additionally, Memphis can take on Green on his 24/25 salary next season

Additionally, Chicago, Detroit, NY, Philly, Portland, Toronto, Utah and Washington have TPE's large enough to take on Green's number in the current season.  I haven't checked hard-caps or other reasons some of these might not work.  For instance, Miami and Phoenix also have a TPE of this size, but would not be able to use it because of their salary status.

Any team that can use their NT MLE next season can use it like a TPE and take on Green since his salary is less than the projected NT MLE.

Dallas has two TPE's ($4.95 and $4.0) it can use to facilitate a trade that isn't a salary match.


 
There are more paths available to us to reduce salary for DJJ (and possibly add an asset) than we've really explored fully in these discussions.  I'm not a fan of trading Green, but his contract amount appears to have been set in a way it could easily be traded under the new MLE rules that start this coming season.  If you do that and create the room needed for DJJ (it would need to be a bit under the NT MLE, but well more than the TP MLE according to FG's numbers), then you still have THJ's contract (and 2025) to use to add an upgrade.  We can afford two outgoing players for one returning player if that one returning player upgrades the THJ/Green minutes while also getting us the money needed to keep DJJ.

This is gold, thanks for the info!

[KillerLeft]

I am leery on Thybulle in general. I don't think he's a need, with PJW and DJJ already here.

Totally agree, and I’ll go a step further and say even as a DJJ replacement he’d be disappointing.

[F Gump]

So (and please, correct me if I'm wrong), getting enough room to go over the tax MLE will require moving THJ, Green or Gafford, right, and the question is HOW they move one of those guys. Like, we're hoping they can do so productively to bring in at leas one usable player or draft capital while still accomplishing the savings, rather than just dumping one of them for air. 

1 Do I have the right situation in mind, or

2 is there something I'm missing?

3 Is it fair to say a move that opens up the MLE for DJJ and accomplishes something productive, like adding a player or draft capital, might require moving TWO of those guys?

1 Yes
2 No, not that I can see
3 Yes, it might

One side note - the Mavs may or may not need to get the a full NT MLE to have enough to re-sign DJJ. Obviously the bigger the number it takes, the more salary you have to acquire -- so there are lots of variables at play, in solving the equation.

[SleepingHero]

What? No. That is world's from being legal, and no the TM doesn't accept it either (it's says you need to reduce the salary going to POR by over 18M!).

In fact, POR has salary issues and there's a good chance they won't be able to do any trade that has them accepting more than they send out.

I am leery on Thybulle in general. I don't think he's a need, with PJW and DJJ already here.

You're telling me the internet trade machine lied to me? How could they?

Honestly all these online trade machines probably don't have the updated rules yet, which is why it's allowing some of these to go through. 18 mil is a huge number. 

Regarding Thybulle, I'm envisioning a platoon setup with our wing rotation like our center rotation. You've pointed out many times and championed the luxury of having Gafford as it allows Lively to go all out, and vice versa. Well as it stands, outside of DJJ and PJ, we don't really have another elite wing defensively. I want Green to be that, but he isn't. THJ is certainly not that. Exum can have stretches but he appears unplayable right now. 

Thybulle for all his warts, has been one of the best perimeter defenders in the league for his entire career. I've said it before but before Thybulle, only 3 guards have been able to average over 2 blocks a game for a season per 100 possessions; Michael Jordan (1988), Danny Green (2018), and Tracy McGrady (2001). AND is the only one to do it more than once! In that same timespan, he's consistently been top 5 in steals per game in the league. 

He's a defensive beast. And he is at his best defensive game when he has a strong rim protector behind him. Well Dallas has TWO of those! His lack of offensive game basically stymies his ability to play in the playoffs thus far. But a hyper-athletic forward with a dubious outside shot that can defend in spades reminds me of a certain someone we have on the roster already and that is flourishing next to Kyrie/Luka. At 11 mil a year, he's cost effective, and his deal ends in 2 years, keeping flexibility for 2026. 

Keeping DJJ/PJ fresh never hurts either. And if Thybulle actually develops a somewhat respectable 3, you have a helluva player. He was close to 40% until January where he fell off, but that gives some hope. 

There are a lot of reasons why I'm banging the Thybulle Drum. POR salary issues makes me even more confident that they are going to trim the fat so they can properly rebuild.

[Smitty]

You're telling me the internet trade machine lied to me? How could they?

Honestly all these online trade machines probably don't have the updated rules yet, which is why it's allowing some of these to go through. 18 mil is a huge number. 

Regarding Thybulle, I'm envisioning a platoon setup with our wing rotation like our center rotation. You've pointed out many times and championed the luxury of having Gafford as it allows Lively to go all out, and vice versa. Well as it stands, outside of DJJ and PJ, we don't really have another elite wing defensively. I want Green to be that, but he isn't. THJ is certainly not that. Exum can have stretches but he appears unplayable right now. 

Thybulle for all his warts, has been one of the best perimeter defenders in the league for his entire career. I've said it before but before Thybulle, only 3 guards have been able to average over 2 blocks a game for a season per 100 possessions; Michael Jordan (1988), Danny Green (2018), and Tracy McGrady (2001). AND is the only one to do it more than once! In that same timespan, he's consistently been top 5 in steals per game in the league. 

He's a defensive beast. And he is at his best defensive game when he has a strong rim protector behind him. Well Dallas has TWO of those! His lack of offensive game basically stymies his ability to play in the playoffs thus far. But a hyper-athletic forward with a dubious outside shot that can defend in spades reminds me of a certain someone we have on the roster already and that is flourishing next to Kyrie/Luka. At 11 mil a year, he's cost effective, and his deal ends in 2 years, keeping flexibility for 2026. 

Keeping DJJ/PJ fresh never hurts either. And if Thybulle actually develops a somewhat respectable 3, you have a helluva player. He was close to 40% until January where he fell off, but that gives some hope. 

There are a lot of reasons why I'm banging the Thybulle Drum. POR salary issues makes me even more confident that they are going to trim the fat so they can properly rebuild.

You’re right to have Thybulle as a target. Nico tends to keep trying when he finds a player he thinks will fit. He’s on the short list for sure. 

Thybulle
Grimes
Avdija

Those are the names to watch for this summer.

[Knutsen]

You’re right to have Thybulle as a target. Nico tends to keep trying when he finds a player he thinks will fit. He’s on the short list for sure. 

Thybulle
Grimes
Avdija

Those are the names to watch for this summer.

Then you would have to add Kuzma I guess. Read yesterday that the Wizards want to trade him this summer. Maybe he likes us now after we proved him wrong that we’re too far away of really competing…

[surfpuckmd]

I don’t disagree entirely. 4-55M is just the NTMLE. I’m simply pointing out that we LOVE DJJ as Mavs fans, rightfully so. Just that it would be incredibly rare for a player to go from Vet min to 14M AAV when he didn’t even have a career year. He’s literally done exactly what he’s always done. It’s just that the Mavs needed exactly that. 

I listened to some NBA guys a month or two ago and I’m paraphrasing here but they said when a player signs for vet minimum they are almost always going to remain vet minimums, that NBA executives view it that way almost unanimously. Of course, DJJ deserves a raise I just find it hard to believe it’ll be around the $14M number people are worried about. The tax payer MLE of 5.2M is still a sizable raise from 2.7M.

And if the Mavs do have to make room because of another team pulling an Indy (Bruce Brown), I’ve already pointed out the connection with DET and THJ and the Mavs with Grimes. It will cost something most likely and I’ve already said I think the ‘25 SRP (TOR) seems right.

We probably mostly agree.  However, I think it's irrelevant how much DJJ is making this season.  

He's been really good as a starter this season.  He's been even better in the playoffs.  His playoff performance will guarantee him at least $10 million per season in free agency this summer.  He's also still young so there should be no dropoff anytime soon.

[surfpuckmd]

There's been some great discussion and insight over the past 24 hours on the DJJ situation.  

I'd like to ask a question of the board on a different topic.  Can we extend Jaden Hardy this off-season?  What kind of contract do you think he would receive if so?

[Smitty]

Then you would have to add Kuzma I guess. Read yesterday that the Wizards want to trade him this summer. Maybe he likes us now after we proved him wrong that we’re too far away of really competing…

I had Kuzma and deleted him just because I personally want nothing to do with that guy. But yes, you’re right, he’s a Mavs target - hopefully PJ was enough to squash it though!

[SleepingHero]

There's been some great discussion and insight over the past 24 hours on the DJJ situation.  

I'd like to ask a question of the board on a different topic.  Can we extend Jaden Hardy this off-season?  What kind of contract do you think he would receive if so?

We can extend him of course. But has he shown anything to deserve it? This year was a prime chance for him to seize a bigger piece of the rotation between all the injuries and THJ falling off a cliff. For the most part Hardy was pretty bad save for a few games.

This playoffs though he has been a revelation at times. His ability to facilitate is new and might point to him finally putting the pieces together. 

If I was Dallas I'd wait till after Summer League before discussing a Hardy extension. If he has a strong Summer League I'd offer him 3/30 as a prove me you can play deal. 2+1 with the last year a player option. If Hardy blossoms the Mavs have a freaking steal. If he falters then he isn't too hard to move and some team can convince themselves he's already a good enough scorer to take on as a reclamation project.

[SleepingHero]

You’re right to have Thybulle as a target. Nico tends to keep trying when he finds a player he thinks will fit. He’s on the short list for sure. 

Thybulle
Grimes
Avdija

Those are the names to watch for this summer.

Might want to cross Grimes off that list. Detroit traded for him and they need all the talent they can get. I mean look at their roster. They have maybe 4 guys worth anything in a trade. 

And I certainly don't think Detroit would be that motivated to swap Grimes for THJ. If they do then they deserve to rot in basketball hell. 

Avdija was my primary choice at the TDL between Kuzma, PJ, and him. I'd still love to make a run at him. I don't think the Wizards will be keen on accepting another Mavs expiring and a 1st for one of their good players. Got away with it for Gafford. If Nico can do it again for Avdija then he's truly a magician (see what I did there?  )

[KillerLeft]

I don't think Thybulle is the answer for anything, but as long as there's no more Kuzma talk I'll be a happy fan, especially after a WCF (or better) season.

[chaparral]

OK, if the plane to keep DJJ involves trading Green and Hardaway in separate deals, I would like us to get back Caruso from CHI.

How do we make that happen?

[Smitty]

Might want to cross Grimes off that list. Detroit traded for him and they need all the talent they can get. I mean look at their roster. They have maybe 4 guys worth anything in a trade. 

And I certainly don't think Detroit would be that motivated to swap Grimes for THJ. If they do then they deserve to rot in basketball hell. 

Avdija was my primary choice at the TDL between Kuzma, PJ, and him. I'd still love to make a run at him. I don't think the Wizards will be keen on accepting another Mavs expiring and a 1st for one of their good players. Got away with it for Gafford. If Nico can do it again for Avdija then he's truly a magician (see what I did there?  )

Grimes was pretty bad for them after the trade. He’s extension eligible this coming season. I think there was a report yesterday or the day before that they’d be trying to get Ingram? They could be trying to get competitive with the new GM. Lot of moving parts and what ifs, I’m just making the connection is all. 

And I would do back flips if Nico can pull off an Avdija trade. Very unlikely but he belongs on the list nonetheless.


Edit: Here’s the report I was referring to.

With the Pistons’ hire of Trajan Langdon as President of Basketball Operations, Brandon Ingram is a potential trade target to closely monitor.

Not only can Detroit offer Ingram a max-level extension with their cap space, but he also shares the same agent as Cade Cunningham: Jeff Schwartz.

Detroit could build an appealing offer potentially around their No. 5 overall pick and some of their young core pieces.

Something to keep tabs on over the next few months as Ingram’s future with the Pelicans is uncertain.

[mvossman]

OK, if the plane to keep DJJ involves trading Green and Hardaway in separate deals, I would like us to get back Caruso from CHI.

How do we make that happen?

I doubt Timmy plus 25 is enough. Likely to be late first. Green plus 25 has a good chance, but that means you need to send out asset to dump Timmy and you giving up a young player and one of our last assets for a 30 year old, which is probably not direction want to be taking

[KillerLeft]

One thing that's finally starting to be worth discussing, relative to guys like Caruso:

It's starting to be possible that guys at that stage of their careers might WANT to play here. I know that doesn't mean their teams will just hand them over, but I do think the player/agent's outlook on what's possible for them plays a bigger part in the transaction periods of each season than what is publicly discussed.