Trade & FA 2023-24: Stein-Ingram Trade Inevitable| LAL Want Lebron Back On Any Terms

[KillerLeft]

Could it also mean they are looking for a third team for Timmy?  I am really not interested in overpaying for Capela.

Maybe. It's possible that ATL wants McGee and not THJ (I doubt it) but that doesn't change the equation from the Mavs' perspective. Everything we've heard this summer points to them thinking Hardaway is expendable, but trying to use him to create a package that gets McGee's contract off of the roster. To me, this reads like ATL/Dalllas have an idea of what could work, but that ATL (who we also know is trying to lower their payroll, from several sources) doesn't want to be left with some/all of the salary Dallas would send out. 

"Third team", to me, is Dallas having to search for a place to park that portion of what they're sending out, probably with the onus on them to add whatever sweetener needed to make that happen. 

"Slightly overpay" could just be referring to that, but when added by an ATL guy on an ATL board, I'd assume he's referring to what Dallas is willing to pay FOR Capela, as in TO Atlanta. 

I don't like where I think this might be headed, personally.

---

You're pretty much on the nail here. The slight overpay is the cost of getting McGee off the team. I wonder why the Mavs don't just eat the salary in a waive and retain the other assets at this point.

Cool, this makes me feel a bit better. This is only a 2nd or two, I hope. Not '27, not Hardy, not Green. 

...although if Green/#10 was the ask on draft night, I'm a little worried that the "talked down" post -draft price to ATL might be Green (and THJ) without the pick.

[Smitty]

Maybe. It's possible that ATL wants McGee and not THJ (I doubt it) but that doesn't change the equation from the Mavs' perspective. Everything we've heard this summer points to them thinking Hardaway is expendable, but trying to use him to create a package that gets McGee's contract off of the roster. To me, this reads like ATL/Dalllas have an idea of what could work, but that ATL (who we also know is trying to lower their payroll, from several sources) doesn't want to be left with some/all of the salary Dallas would send out. 

"Third team", to me, is Dallas having to search for a place to park that portion of what they're sending out, probably with the onus on them to add whatever sweetener needed to make that happen. 

"Slightly overpay" could just be referring to that, but when added by an ATL guy on an ATL board, I'd assume he's referring to what Dallas is willing to pay FOR Capela, as in TO Atlanta. 

I don't like where I think this might be headed, personally.

---

Cool, this makes me feel a bit better. This is only a 2nd or two, I hope. Not '27, not Hardy, not Green. 

...although if Green/#10 was the ask on draft night, I'm a little worried that the "talked down" post -draft price to ATL might be Green (and THJ) without the pick.

I would not be happy if we’re sending Green in a trade for a stopgap center. I don’t know how that makes the Mavs better in the short term or long term. Green is the only one on the roster that can do what he does and he’s 22. I would much rather trade a ‘27 first (top 20 protected and turns into the ‘28 SRP) if it comes down to it. 

I still find it odd that the Mavs didn’t just dump McGee to the Spurs in the GW trade. There has to be a bigger reason the Mavs wanted the 2028 SRP, probably to add protections the the ‘27 FRP ?

[SleepingHero]

Not only are the Mavs hard-capped at 172 mil right now, I think they're capping themselves at 165 mil due to tax. In a THJ for Capela swap, the Mavs roster goes from 161.7 to 163.9. So about 1.4 mil from the tax line and about 8.5 mil from the 1st apron. I don't think there is any realistic scenario where the Mavs can toe the tax line and try and improve. So with that in mind, its time for Mark to prove he's willing to spend up to the 1st apron.

What team has a distressed player that is making around 14.1 mil AND would either need a backup center in McGee at a lower contract, OR needs to shed the difference of McGee's contract to get below the tax line/1st apron?

If the Mavs are really intent at staying below the tax, the above rules apply except they need to find a player making 7.1mil which I think is highly unrealistic as the difference between 7 and 5 mil aren't that great.

[KillerLeft]

I would not be happy if we’re sending Green in a trade for a stopgap center.

Neither would I, but I can't rule it out. 

Put yourself in the mind of Mark Cuban, and try to imagine really, really not wanting to pay tax next year, not just this year.

[Smitty]

Neither would I, but I can't rule it out. 

Put yourself in the mind of Mark Cuban, and try to imagine really, really not wanting to pay tax next year, not just this year.

I think they’re projected around ~7M over the tax line next year, depending on Green’s extension number. I can see them moving an expiring Holmes to get under the tax by years end. I sure hope Cuban isn’t so cheap to lose young promising players to avoid a possible tax bill. Luka should demand a trade the second he’s eligible, after signing his super max.

[KillerLeft]

Not only are the Mavs hard-capped at 172 mil right now, I think they're capping themselves at 165 mil due to tax. In a THJ for Capela swap, the Mavs roster goes from 161.7 to 163.9. So about 1.4 mil from the tax line and about 8.5 mil from the 1st apron. I don't think there is any realistic scenario where the Mavs can toe the tax line and try and improve. So with that in mind, its time for Mark to prove he's willing to spend up to the 1st apron.

What team has a distressed player that is making around 14.1 mil AND would either need a backup center in McGee at a lower contract, OR needs to shed the difference of McGee's contract to get below the tax line/1st apron?

If the Mavs are really intent at staying below the tax, the above rules apply except they need to find a player making 7.1mil which I think is highly unrealistic as the difference between 7 and 5 mil aren't that great.

I think what we should be looking for is a team capable of absorbing McGee's contract with NO outgoing money. That way, BOTH Atlanta and Dallas lower their payrolls, which I believe is part of the point. I'm almost positive it is for ATL, which is the entire reason a 3rd team is needed.

---

I think they’re projected around ~7M over the tax line next year, depending on Green’s extension number. I can see them moving an expiring Holmes to get under the tax by years end. I sure hope Cuban isn’t so cheap to lose young promising players to avoid a possible tax bill. Luka should demand a trade the second he’s eligible, after signing his super max.

I haven't thought about this much, because it's a new idea. But, I can see them moving BOTH (the need to give Green another contract AND Holmes) by the end of the year (giving assets both times to do so) as a means to be under the tax enough to use the MLE next summer. 

Sadly, this is starting to make sense to me. I'm hoping FGump or Dan will swoop in with something I'm getting wrong to assuage this sickening feeling in my stomach, because I'm free falling towards "hate this off-season" if they do what I think they might be trying to do.

[Smitty]

Tyler suggested this in discord. Could make sense for Atlanta if the Siakam deal is dead. PJ and McGee would be backup centers to OO. CHA gets a veteran wing and a tip from Dallas.

[KillerLeft]

Tyler suggested this in discord. Could make sense for Atlanta if the Siakam deal is dead. PJ and McGee would be backup centers to OO. CHA gets a veteran wing and a tip from Dallas.

I love this, but don't think it fits the rumor in any way. The ATL guy would have to be interpreting the info he's getting WAY wrongly. We can hope!

[loki]

I wouldn't be shocked if the Mavs end up giving Hardy for Capela. It would make sense of all the guard related rumors (players that look redundant to us). I think Green is off-limits.

[KillerLeft]

I wouldn't be shocked if the Mavs end up giving Hardy for Capela. It would make sense of all the guard related rumors (players that look redundant to us). I think Green is off-limits.

I would be, especially since THJ has to be involved. 

The guy ATL wanted on draft night was Green. The guy who's up for a new contract next year is Green. Even if we assume Cuban is NOT motivated by setting the roster up to avoid future tax (I can't assume that at all, but for this conversation, let's), then Green's impending free agency means he's less cost controlled than Hardy. That makes him a more desirable piece to move from the Mavs' POV if they've decided they MUST move one of them to get what they want.

I agree with you that he SHOULD be fairly close to "off-limits." I certainly won't be a proponent of him being moved for Capela, if that's what happens. Hardy, either, for that matter. Either scenario would be lunacy.

[SleepingHero]

What team has a distressed player that is making around 14.1 mil AND would either need a backup center in McGee at a lower contract, OR needs to shed the difference of McGee's contract to get below the tax line/1st apron?

Current teams right near the 165 tax line: Pelicans

Teams between the 1st and 2nd apron: Nuggets, 76ers, Celtics, Heat, and Bucks

Teams hopelessly over the 2nd apron: Warriors, Clippers, and Suns.

Of those teams the only ones that make much sense to me in a deal where the Mavs are trying to land Capela are all of them but the Suns, Celtics, and Warriors. The Clippers, 76ers, and Miami are all trying to do blockbuster deals, so it's tough to conjure up trade matches for them given that they have other priorities so lets strike them too. That leaves: Pelicans, Nuggets and Bucks.

Players on said teams that qualify for that 14.1 mil contract and are *distressed:
NOP: Nance Jr., Valanciunas
DEN: N/A
Bucks: Portis, Connaughton, Allen

Pelicans to me makes the absolute most sense. Mavs could create a 3-way where:

Pelicans: Patty Mills+McGee+2nds
Hawks: THJ+Valanciunas
Mavs: Capela

Pelicans are 38k above the tax line with this deal. Mavs and Hawks stay below it. The only players that make sense are Naji Marshall or Trey Murphey to Dallas as they both fit into the TPE and the Mavs remain under the tax line with either of them, but their inclusion to me makes it a bit imbalanced unless the Mavs were to throw in a 2027 FRP and then we're at a massive overpay.

[Smitty]

I wouldn't be shocked if the Mavs end up giving Hardy for Capela. It would make sense of all the guard related rumors (players that look redundant to us). I think Green is off-limits.

I’ve had this thought also but didn’t want to say it because I’m not a fan of doing it. But the Mavs could have put Hardy in the position they did in SL to see if he could be more than a scorer. I think he’s still too young to put a cap on what he CAN do, but it’s up to the Mavs to be right on player evaluations and there’s no telling what they’re thinking.

The way I personally stack the young players from Mavs perspective from tradable to un-tradabale:

Hardy
Lively
Green
OMax

[Jym]

I'd hate to give up too much for Capela since I think he'll end up being on the bench in the most pivotal playoffs moments. Pretty sure Maxi would still be the preferred closing center with Grant at center if Maxi is injured/not effective

[F Gump]

Two comments

1 The ATL "insider" has one piece of "inside information" after another that turns out to be false. Then he kicks the can down the road with new "information." While it's fun, it's not wise to put ANY stock into the implications of each new proclamation he comes up with. That's my main opinion.

2 As for how this could fit with what I have been thinking of a Capela deal, if we take it at face value -- I've been of the belief ATL wants Capela gone right away, to open up minutes for Okongwu and to reduce payroll, and DAL is the rare duck that might be interested in helping. I think that's the bottom line with any talks.

To me the obvious trade match is Holmes for Capela, which offers ATL a 12M center making 12M, plus 8M to spend elsewhere, for their 20M center making 20M. I think they would do that -- it's exactly what they are looking for. No one is giving added assets for a $20M center they don't really want or need. I can't see the Mavs bidding against themselves, or adding more assets when one-for-one it's already a fair swap. The 8M to spend elsewhere is the evener that bridges the difference between the 2 players.

But it doesn't satisfy the trade rules. Holmes-McGee does (saving then 2.5M/year), and also satisfies the Mavs' need to lower the body count at the C position and their desire to move McGee. It also keeps the Mavs below the tax line.

So this "insider info" in my view would have ATL's stance being "find a taker for McGee where we get $8M in savings, and we'll do the deal" and now it's on the Mavs to figure out how to do that (or to say no).  Waiving McGee doesn't get it done, because the Mavs' need his salary included in order to match Capela (although the team that gets McGee could waive him if they want). I would think "McGee + cash" to a team with cap room - or one needing a really cheap backup center - should be doable.

I don't think that's hard. Which would fit with the idea that the deal could already be all lined up, but just waiting to Sept 6 because of Holmes status, while everyone speculates as they see nothing happening.

[Smitty]

Two comments

1 The ATL "insider" has one piece of "inside information" after another that turns out to be false. Then he kicks the can down the road with new "information." While it's fun, it's not wise to put ANY stock into the implications of each new proclamation he comes up with. That's my main opinion.

2 As for how this could fit with what I have been thinking of a Capela deal, if we take it at face value -- I've been of the belief ATL wants Capela gone right away, to open up minutes for Okongwu and to reduce payroll, and DAL is the rare duck that might be interested in helping. I think that's the bottom line with any talks.

To me the obvious trade match is Holmes for Capela, which offers ATL a 12M center making 12M, plus 8M to spend elsewhere, for their 20M center making 20M. I think they would do that -- it's exactly what they are looking for. No one is giving added assets for a $20M center they don't really want or need. I can't see the Mavs bidding against themselves, or adding more assets when one-for-one it's already a fair swap. The 8M to spend elsewhere is the evener that bridges the difference between the 2 players.

But it doesn't satisfy the trade rules. Holmes-McGee does (saving then 2.5M/year), and also satisfies the Mavs' need to lower the body count at the C position and their desire to move McGee. It also keeps the Mavs below the tax line.

So this "insider info" in my view would have ATL's stance being "find a taker for McGee where we get $8M in savings, and we'll do the deal" and now it's on the Mavs to figure out how to do that (or to say no).  Waiving McGee doesn't get it done, because the Mavs' need his salary included in order to match Capela (although the team that gets McGee could waive him if they want). I would think "McGee + cash" to a team with cap room - or one needing a really cheap backup center - should be doable.

I don't think that's hard. Which would fit with the idea that the deal could already be all lined up, but just waiting to Sept 6 because of Holmes status, while everyone speculates as they see nothing happening.

“Portland, Brooklyn, Washington, Miami, New York, and Boston all have TPEs large enough to absorb McGee“

[F Gump]

“Portland, Brooklyn, Washington, Miami, New York, and Boston all have TPEs large enough to absorb McGee“

' Portland, Brooklyn, Washington, Miami, New York, and Boston all have TPEs large enough to absorb McGee“ "

Yes, and in addition there should be some teams with enough cap room.

Somewhere among those would be the team the Mavs would want to deal with, I think.

It's unlikely that a tax-paying team would take him, or one close to the tax line, so that eliminates a few. Maybe the cutoff of the above teams is existing salary around 155M (or less)?

The ideal team to find would be a team NEEDING a backup center, and where getting McGee with cash could offer them a net price that is less than minimum salary.

[mvossman]

Two comments

1 The ATL "insider" has one piece of "inside information" after another that turns out to be false. Then he kicks the can down the road with new "information." While it's fun, it's not wise to put ANY stock into the implications of each new proclamation he comes up with. That's my main opinion.

2 As for how this could fit with what I have been thinking of a Capela deal, if we take it at face value -- I've been of the belief ATL wants Capela gone right away, to open up minutes for Okongwu and to reduce payroll, and DAL is the rare duck that might be interested in helping. I think that's the bottom line with any talks.

To me the obvious trade match is Holmes for Capela, which offers ATL a 12M center making 12M, plus 8M to spend elsewhere, for their 20M center making 20M. I think they would do that -- it's exactly what they are looking for. No one is giving added assets for a $20M center they don't really want or need. I can't see the Mavs bidding against themselves, or adding more assets when one-for-one it's already a fair swap. The 8M to spend elsewhere is the evener that bridges the difference between the 2 players.

But it doesn't satisfy the trade rules. Holmes-McGee does (saving then 2.5M/year), and also satisfies the Mavs' need to lower the body count at the C position and their desire to move McGee. It also keeps the Mavs below the tax line.

So this "insider info" in my view would have ATL's stance being "find a taker for McGee where we get $8M in savings, and we'll do the deal" and now it's on the Mavs to figure out how to do that (or to say no).  Waiving McGee doesn't get it done, because the Mavs' need his salary included in order to match Capela (although the team that gets McGee could waive him if they want). I would think "McGee + cash" to a team with cap room - or one needing a really cheap backup center - should be doable.

I don't think that's hard. Which would fit with the idea that the deal could already be all lined up, but just waiting to Sept 6 because of Holmes status, while everyone speculates as they see nothing happening.

When teams come to these kind of agreements, do they generally wait to announce it until they can officially pull the trigger?  I remember the Wood trade was announced well before the draft.  Is there a reason they would wait to announce?

[DanSchwartzgan]

To me the obvious trade match is Holmes for Capela, which offers ATL a 12M center making 12M, plus 8M to spend elsewhere, for their 20M center making 20M. I think they would do that -- it's exactly what they are looking for. No one is giving added assets for a $20M center they don't really want or need. I can't see the Mavs bidding against themselves, or adding more assets when one-for-one it's already a fair swap. The 8M to spend elsewhere is the evener that bridges the difference between the 2 players.

But it doesn't satisfy the trade rules. Holmes-McGee does (saving then 2.5M/year), and also satisfies the Mavs' need to lower the body count at the C position and their desire to move McGee. It also keeps the Mavs below the tax line.

So this "insider info" in my view would have ATL's stance being "find a taker for McGee where we get $8M in savings, and we'll do the deal" and now it's on the Mavs to figure out how to do that (or to say no).  Waiving McGee doesn't get it done, because the Mavs' need his salary included in order to match Capela (although the team that gets McGee could waive him if they want). I would think "McGee + cash" to a team with cap room - or one needing a really cheap backup center - should be doable.

I don't think that's hard. Which would fit with the idea that the deal could already be all lined up, but just waiting to Sept 6 because of Holmes status, while everyone speculates as they see nothing happening.

I'm in agreement about it being Holmes rather than THJ who is at the core of this.  THJ is a salary match for Capela, so there is no mandate for McGee to be included and you don't "overpay" for something that you don't have to do.  But, Holmes misses being a trade match for Capela by himself by about $1,070,000.  So another salary HAS to be added and Dallas rightfully wants it to be McGee.  That will cost something.  People can debate what that something is.

We covered this ground the other day, but if Dallas sends out two salaries, they have to get back to 14 players.  Holmes/McGee outgoing (no matter where McGee ends up) for Capela incoming is a $2.9mm bump to the Mav's payroll.  We only have $4.1mm of space under the tax and it will cost ~$2mm to add a 14th body.  My squeamishness with the idea that this is as simple as wait to September and pay cash or cash + a second to someone to take McGee is this will throw Dallas $800k into the tax.  How much does Dallas lose in tax distribution for that $800k?  Is it $20mm?  Whatever it is, that is too much for Capela.  

So, it feels like there would need to be something else at some point.  I'm not talking about Hardy, Green or even something happening before the season starts.  But, at some point, Dallas would likely look for a way to reduce salary back below the tax line if there is some kind of Holmes/Capela based deal in September.

[ItsGoTime]

Holmes for Capela would be the biggest heist in league history. A starting C for a 3rd string C all because they save some money. Forgive me if I’m not in any way getting my hopes up and side with the report of “slightly overpay”.

[ItsGoTime]

On the other hand. Holmes still has his trade kicker in his contract right? That money adds to our outgoing salary too. That is just enough to make him a match for Capela. I could see Holmes and 27 unprotected for Capela. That alleviates the need to add a 3rd team.