Trade & FA 2023-24: Sexton On the Market? | ORL Likes Hartenstein?

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I know he was drafted with Methuselah, but in my rating system Brook Lopez is the #5 center in the league. How about this?

DAL - Lopez, Crowder, Payne
Gets the needed defensive big, rotation defensive wing, and 3rd PG

Mil - Ayton
Replaces Lopez with an age closer to the Freak

PHX - Dal#10, THJ, G.Allen, Bertans
Gets a FRP, Bertans S/W curing their $ problems, gets depth in THJ/Allen

[Scott41theMavs]

I don't want Ayton and most here don't seem to either, but the Suns aren't going to just give him away for our trash.

LOL he has an albatross contract in the age of the new CBA. He has considerably negative value. If they don't want our pupu platter, good for us, because I don't want that garbage (Ayton's contract) on the Mavs' roster anyway.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

LOL he has an albatross contract in the age of the new CBA. He has considerably negative value. If they don't want our pupu platter, good for us, because I don't want that garbage (Ayton's contract) on the Mavs' roster anyway.

Ya, I don't think people realize his contract has at least $40m dead money over the next 3 years.  

What are your thoughts on Lopez?

[BigDirk41]

I trully hope this is just Cato thinking and not any insider indication of what Mavs plan to do. His example of Bertans +10 for O'Neale+21 is basically a salary dump for a nothing special player on an expiring contract. I would much prefer drafting at 10 whoever is available (hopefully a PF) using the pick and stretching Bertans, than this. Really no help for Mavs if this is best they can do.

https://theathletic.com/4590424/2023/06/...mplicated/

That's a bad move. I hope that's not realistic of what they are looking for.

[F Gump]

FWIW, this feels to me like Phoenix approached CP3 and said ‘we love you dude, but we can’t do the $30.8 for you next year.  New CBA blah blah blah’.  You have a choice.  If you want to go get an MLE job somewhere, you can make $28mm next season, but you can’t do it here because we will S/W you if you want to go.  If you want to stay on a minimum, great, love to have you, but we can’t S/W you in that scenario.  We need to plan around your decision, so you have X days to let us know.  Our base presumption is you are looking for the money, so we will S/W unless you agree to take the minimum.  Have a nice day.

I like this analysis of the PHX situation. Thank you.

[Mavs2021]

I know it does not seem likely, but I´d approve of a Ayton/CP3 package for two reasons. I think Ayton is underrated at this point and $30M is close to fair value for 20/10 center at the age of 25. #2 I think CP3 would be a great mentor for Luka., just like I thought Westbrook would be. Both hold themselves to high standards and they´d show Luka what it takes to be mentally and physically 100% prepared for a season and a game. Both have the natural authority and confidence to call out Luka and unlike laid back Dirk (who is a leader by example) they´d probably be in his face. So even if CP3, the on court player has very limited value imho, he does have locker room value.

[Scott41theMavs]

I know it does not seem likely, but I´d approve of a Ayton/CP3 package for two reasons. I think Ayton is underrated at this point and $30M is close to fair value for 20/10 center at the age of 25. #2 I think CP3 would be a great mentor for Luka., just like I thought Westbrook would be. Both hold themselves to high standards and they´d show Luka what it takes to be mentally and physically 100% prepared for a season and a game. Both have the natural authority and confidence to call out Luka and unlike laid back Dirk (who is a leader by example) they´d probably be in his face. So even if CP3, the on court player has very limited value imho, he does have locker room value.

Pretty sure CP3 burnt that bridge with Luka.

[chaparral]

I know it does not seem likely, but I´d approve of a Ayton/CP3 package for two reasons. I think Ayton is underrated at this point and $30M is close to fair value for 20/10 center at the age of 25. #2 I think CP3 would be a great mentor for Luka., just like I thought Westbrook would be. Both hold themselves to high standards and they´d show Luka what it takes to be mentally and physically 100% prepared for a season and a game. Both have the natural authority and confidence to call out Luka and unlike laid back Dirk (who is a leader by example) they´d probably be in his face. So even if CP3, the on court player has very limited value imho, he does have locker room value.

And # 3.  We want to see Luka in a State Farm commercial.  Would Kyrie be going to the Suns in this deal?

[BigDirk41]

And # 3.  We want to see Luka in a State Farm commercial.  Would Kyrie be going to the Suns in this deal?

Kyrie isn't going anywhere. He's going to be a Mav at a stupid max of 4/200 and everyone is going to be mad, but that's just what it is. I'm confident Cuban promised him that when he traded for him. While I agree he can be crazy and has killed some teams, talent wise he's a max player. We can try to talk ourselves into "value" and "fair" all we want, but that's not going to happen. The sooner everyone excepts that, the better.

[F Gump]

WHAT AN AYTON-CP3 TRADE MIGHT LOOK LIKE

Dallas doesn't want to increase their payroll, so they will want to send out matching 62.2M in salaries. That's right at the total for Hardaway, Bertans, Kleber, Bullock, McGee.

PHX can (and would) s-w Bertans, leaving them with 49.5M in cap cost along with Hardaway, Kleber, Bullock, McGee, which is about $1M below where they would be with Ayton-CP3 (on a minimum after being waived). After you factor in the gain of filling fewer empty roster slots, they are about $5M lower in salary.

In essence, PHX trades Ayton for Hardaway, Kleber, Bullock, McGee and their cap situation looks like this:

KD  47.6
Booker  36.0
Shamet  10.3
Payne  6.5
Hardaway, Kleber, Bullock, McGee   49.5
minimums (7)  14.0
TOTAL = 163.9
MLE spendable room = est 7M, or TxMLE 5M plus freedom up to Apron 2 at 180M

DAL ends up here
Luka 40.1
Kyrie  40.1
Ayton  32.5
CP   30.8
Green  4.8
Hardy  1.7
#10 Pick  5.2
minimums (8)  16.0
TOTAL = 171.0
Over Apron 1, TxMLE (5M) could be used without passing Apron 2

Observation --
A. That's a really thin team for DAL. But if you're a player who is looking for minutes and getting minimum salary offers, there's lots of opportunity.
B. If I was DAL, I would pass on the idea. Seems like paying CP 30.8M is a killer. But I could instead target Ayton by trade (THJ, Bullock, McGee) and CP as a FA signing (using either minimum, BAE, or part of MLE), which gives me better room to fill out the roster.

[SleepingHero]

WHAT AN AYTON-CP3 TRADE MIGHT LOOK LIKE

Dallas doesn't want to increase their payroll, so they will want to send out matching 62.2M in salaries. That's right at the total for Hardaway, Bertans, Kleber, Bullock, McGee.

PHX can (and would) s-w Bertans, leaving them with 49.5M in cap cost along with Hardaway, Kleber, Bullock, McGee, which is about $1M below where they would be with Ayton-CP3 (on a minimum after being waived). After you factor in the gain of filling fewer empty roster slots, they are about $5M lower in salary.

In essence, PHX trades Ayton for Hardaway, Kleber, Bullock, McGee and their cap situation looks like this:

KD  47.6
Booker  36.0
Shamet  10.3
Payne  6.5
Hardaway, Kleber, Bullock, McGee   49.5
minimums (7)  14.0
TOTAL = 163.9
MLE spendable room = est 7M, or TxMLE 5M plus freedom up to Apron 2 at 180M

DAL ends up here
Luka 40.1
Kyrie  40.1
Ayton  32.5
CP   30.8
Green  4.8
Hardy  1.7
#10 Pick  5.2
minimums (8)  16.0
TOTAL = 171.0
Over Apron 1, TxMLE (5M) could be used without passing Apron 2

Observation --
A. That's a really thin team for DAL. But if you're a player who is looking for minutes and getting minimum salary offers, there's lots of opportunity.
B. If I was DAL, I would pass on the idea. Seems like paying CP 30.8M is a killer. But I could instead target Ayton by trade (THJ, Bullock, McGee) and CP as a FA signing (using either minimum, BAE, or part of MLE), which gives me better room to fill out the roster.

Thank you for breaking it down. 

I agree that is an incredibly thin team top to bottom. I would argue that Maxi is worth the cap hit and shouldn't be included, and the trade should still work with everyone sans Maxi.  Your second option is obviously way more preferable but does PHX really get motivated for THJ, Bullock, Mcgee? I want to say yes, but my opinion wavers each day.

With that, Luka/Kyrie/Green/Maxi/Ayton bench CP3, Hardy, #10 is a solid top 8 rotation. Add in Powell on a minimum deal, and the obvious Theo Pinson Locker Room Min Deal, and the Mavs have 5 spots for people who want to play a lot of minutes.

[chaparral]

Kyrie isn't going anywhere. He's going to be a Mav at a stupid max of 4/200 and everyone is going to be mad, but that's just what it is. I'm confident Cuban promised him that when he traded for him. While I agree he can be crazy and has killed some teams, talent wise he's a max player. We can try to talk ourselves into "value" and "fair" all we want, but that's not going to happen. The sooner everyone excepts that, the better.

Your probably right, about Cuban.

[Jym]

Kyrie isn't going anywhere. He's going to be a Mav at a stupid max of 4/200 and everyone is going to be mad, but that's just what it is. I'm confident Cuban promised him that when he traded for him. While I agree he can be crazy and has killed some teams, talent wise he's a max player. We can try to talk ourselves into "value" and "fair" all we want, but that's not going to happen. The sooner everyone excepts that, the better.

4 for $200 mil is probably the best case
we could offer up to 5 for $273 mil

[BigDirk41]

4 for $200 mil is probably the best case
we could offer up to 5 for $273 mil

I could have done without that info...haha. That would be so bad.

[F Gump]

I agree that is an incredibly thin team top to bottom. I would argue that Maxi is worth the cap hit and shouldn't be included, and the trade should still work with everyone sans Maxi.  Your second option is obviously way more preferable but does PHX really get motivated for THJ, Bullock, Mcgee? I want to say yes, but my opinion wavers each day.

Here's where DAL ends up if Maxi doesn't go to PHX (ie, pkg of THJ, DB, RB, McGee for Ayton-CP)

DAL ends up here
Luka 40.1
Kyrie  40.1
Ayton  32.5
CP   30.8
Kleber 11.0
Green  4.8
Hardy  1.7
#10 Pick  5.2
minimums (7)  16.0
TOTAL = 180.0
Right at Apron 2 (but probably a slight cushion and okay for that purpose). Other than signing minimums, that's it.

[Mavs2021]

WHAT AN AYTON-CP3 TRADE MIGHT LOOK LIKE

Dallas doesn't want to increase their payroll, so they will want to send out matching 62.2M in salaries. That's right at the total for Hardaway, Bertans, Kleber, Bullock, McGee.

PHX can (and would) s-w Bertans, leaving them with 49.5M in cap cost along with Hardaway, Kleber, Bullock, McGee, which is about $1M below where they would be with Ayton-CP3 (on a minimum after being waived). After you factor in the gain of filling fewer empty roster slots, they are about $5M lower in salary.

In essence, PHX trades Ayton for Hardaway, Kleber, Bullock, McGee and their cap situation looks like this:

KD  47.6
Booker  36.0
Shamet  10.3
Payne  6.5
Hardaway, Kleber, Bullock, McGee   49.5
minimums (7)  14.0
TOTAL = 163.9
MLE spendable room = est 7M, or TxMLE 5M plus freedom up to Apron 2 at 180M

DAL ends up here
Luka 40.1
Kyrie  40.1
Ayton  32.5
CP   30.8
Green  4.8
Hardy  1.7
#10 Pick  5.2
minimums (8)  16.0
TOTAL = 171.0
Over Apron 1, TxMLE (5M) could be used without passing Apron 2

Observation --
A. That's a really thin team for DAL. But if you're a player who is looking for minutes and getting minimum salary offers, there's lots of opportunity.
B. If I was DAL, I would pass on the idea. Seems like paying CP 30.8M is a killer. But I could instead target Ayton by trade (THJ, Bullock, McGee) and CP as a FA signing (using either minimum, BAE, or part of MLE), which gives me better room to fill out the roster.

I doubt the Suns would be interested in that deal, but if you take the full CP3 salary dump out of the equation, it´s just a ridiculous deal.

I´d argue that Dallas teams looks most excellent on paper. One of the best possible outcomes for the summer. It would ensure Hardy/Green/#10 pick get big regular season minutes. If works you got a young play-off team with a core that is here for the next 4-5 years. It doesn´t, bad luck Knicks, hello Bronny family.

Seriously you also set up your cap beautifully with just 125M-ish guaranteed next summer.

[ItsGoTime]

4 for $200 mil is probably the best case
we could offer up to 5 for $273 mil

Best case 5 for $200M.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

What about Ayton to MIL and Lopez to DAL?

[BigDirk41]

Best case 5 for $200M.

I think 5/200 would be a win for the Mavs and especially Cuban's dumbass. I think it will be 4/200 or worse, but I truly hope I'm wrong.

[Scott41theMavs]

Ya, I don't think people realize his contract has at least $40m dead money over the next 3 years.  

What are your thoughts on Lopez?

Would be nice, but I think your trade proposal on the other thread doesn't send enough to Milwaukee. If they see Ayton as an upgrade to Lopez, they're dumb. Ayton is trash, nearly to the level of Andre Drummond.

---

I think 5/200 would be a win for the Mavs and especially Cuban's dumbass. I think it will be 4/200 or worse, but I truly hope I'm wrong.

The reason that this is such a nightmare is that, even at the low numbers you all are speculating about, that contract has heavily negative value for when he inevitably forces his way out. Thanks a lot, Mark!