ROSTER TALK: Mavs favs for Vogel if no HC job exists. Kyrie handshake deal?

[SleepingHero]

Because Dame hasn't forced a trade. Kyrie has. TWICE. There's no correlation between the two.

I'd say Dame's posturing on social media wavering whether or not he can continue to stay loyal to POR and how he won't play for a team that doesn't have championship aspirations is akin to forcing a trade. Especially when the team was just gifted a top 3 pick with 3 franchise potential players and has no realistic hope at being a serious championship level team in the next 2 years. Dame is 32 going on 33. He doesn't have 2 years for POR to grow into being a contender, and its unrealistic to expect the team to become that in less than a season.

Kyrie has forced many trades and you're right in terms of history there is no comparison. But in terms of correlation? Both went to opposing teams playoff games. Both have gone to the media to express their wants and desires and have hinted at the alternative if they don't get those things.

The correlation is there. But we only talk about Kyrie because the media (rightly) has it out for him.

[IamDougieFresh]

Denver is showing that you just need the right 7 guys for the playoffs - 8 if you count Braun's limited minutes. Also, I'm thinking it's not a bad idea to start building rosters with countering the Nuggets in mind.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Denver is showing that you just need the right 7 guys for the playoffs - 8 if you count Braun's limited minutes. Also, I'm thinking it's not a bad idea to start building rosters with countering the Nuggets in mind.

Their top 5 guys will make $147mm next season.  That is 90% of the amount free of tax and 82% of the 'hard cap'.  The have three max contracts (though two of them are young maxes) and Gordon at $21mm and KCP at $14mm.  That leaves $33mm to the hard cap for 10 players.

One of the things I've been playing with today is what the best strategy for this might be.  FG posted a 40/40/20/20/10 top five if I recall.  Obviously, you can spend more on the 4-7 slots if you spend less on the top 3.  As we think through Luka/Kyrie/X/X, the names of Allen and Collins came up (it doesn't have to be them specifically).  That's between $125mm-$132mm depending on Kyrie's number.  I can see teams scrambling to get rid of guys like Collins (if they already have big commitments on the books).  I can see teams grabbing them also (if he really is worth that money as a 3rd/4th best guy type).  

If Dallas didn't have so much money invested in the wrong places ($35mm next season in THJ and Bertans), they could take advantage of teams starting to work toward getting their books in order.  We might see some decent third/fourth options change hands because their teams can't afford to keep them and the first and second options.  Dallas has those first and second options and could afford both someone like Allen and someone like Collins if they can move off of some of their other money.

[The Jom]

Mavs would also thump Miami in any game in which the cHeat are awarded just 2 free throws. I am unimpressed by Denver’s game one win.

I’m also sad about THJ and Davis having their names dragged through the mud here. I’m unconvinced that Timmy is overpaid. He could easily be the 4th or 5th best player for a winning team. Certainly he isn’t overpaid by more than 5M/year. Likewise, Davis is not a bad contract. He’s our upgrade of the truly horrendous KP deal. And he’s almost to the point where that non-guaranteed money turns into a chip.

Perspective, fellas. Mavs in a great spot. Just need our Doe-Doe back.

[Jym]

Likewise, Davis is not a bad contract.

Had no idea Nico posted here

[IamDougieFresh]

Their top 5 guys will make $147mm next season.  That is 90% of the amount free of tax and 82% of the 'hard cap'.  The have three max contracts (though two of them are young maxes) and Gordon at $21mm and KCP at $14mm.  That leaves $33mm to the hard cap for 10 players.

One of the things I've been playing with today is what the best strategy for this might be.  FG posted a 40/40/20/20/10 top five if I recall.  Obviously, you can spend more on the 4-7 slots if you spend less on the top 3.  As we think through Luka/Kyrie/X/X, the names of Allen and Collins came up (it doesn't have to be them specifically).  That's between $125mm-$132mm depending on Kyrie's number.  I can see teams scrambling to get rid of guys like Collins (if they already have big commitments on the books).  I can see teams grabbing them also (if he really is worth that money as a 3rd/4th best guy type).  

If Dallas didn't have so much money invested in the wrong places ($35mm next season in THJ and Bertans), they could take advantage of teams starting to work toward getting their books in order.  We might see some decent third/fourth options change hands because their teams can't afford to keep them and the first and second options.  Dallas has those first and second options and could afford both someone like Allen and someone like Collins if they can move off of some of their other money.

Here's my latest GM LARP. Keep in mind I don't fully understand the CBA so maybe something isn't possible. I can't believe any team would give a 1st for Ayton with this CBA after what we just saw in the playoffs. The super geniuses up in Minnesota already blew everything on Gobert. Not having to move #10 is the main reason I would try to get him. We can hook the Sons up with some much needed depth. MAYBE I would consider sending 2027.

THJ, Bullock, McShaqtin for Ayton.

Perhaps we could do Bertans + #10 for 21 + 22? I'm not sure if the value is fair. I know there was some discussion about it here recently.

Luka - 40
Kyrie - 40
Ayton - 32
Maxi - 11
MLE - 10
Green - 5
Hardy - 2

#21 - 3
#22 - 3

Wood Sign and Trade for somebody? - ???

If you believe in Ayton just needing a change of scenery and Green and Hardy taking the next step, I think this would be a formidable roster. Obviously we don't know if the Wood thing will happen or what he would be swapped for. In the draft there are several guys that I like who will be available in the 20s. I'm not sure what MLE money will get you.

[IamDougieFresh]

Also, I thought Brooklyn had a lot more cap space. Maybe we get DFS back.

[Jason Terry]

Here's my latest GM LARP. Keep in mind I don't fully understand the CBA so maybe something isn't possible. I can't believe any team would give a 1st for Ayton with this CBA after what we just saw in the playoffs. The super geniuses up in Minnesota already blew everything on Gobert. Not having to move #10 is the main reason I would try to get him. We can hook the Sons up with some much needed depth. MAYBE I would consider sending 2027.

THJ, Bullock, McShaqtin for Ayton.

Perhaps we could do Bertans + #10 for 21 + 22? I'm not sure if the value is fair. I know there was some discussion about it here recently.

Luka - 40
Kyrie - 40
Ayton - 32
Maxi - 11
MLE - 10
Green - 5
Hardy - 2

#21 - 3
#22 - 3

Wood Sign and Trade for somebody? - ???

If you believe in Ayton just needing a change of scenery and Green and Hardy taking the next step, I think this would be a formidable roster. Obviously we don't know if the Wood thing will happen or what he would be swapped for. In the draft there are several guys that I like who will be available in the 20s. I'm not sure what MLE money will get you.

If all Phoenix does is keep their guys and fill the rest of the roster with minimums, they will be well over the 2nd apron. So, cutting salary while adding depth seems like their goal. They have limited assets and I’m sure would love to rid themselves of the Shamet contract. 

Ayton and Shamet for THJ, Bullock and Mcgee is a match. Gives them max savings from a non-cap space team of $8.5 million. A trade like that would really hamstring the Mavs so I’m not sure we would do it, but there’s an opportunity to get Ayton on a discount if we were to take on all that $. It’s dangerous seeing that Ayton has never been good in the playoffs

[DanSchwartzgan]

Also, I thought Brooklyn had a lot more cap space. Maybe we get DFS back.

They have a large TE to work with, but not cap space.  In fact, the hole in proposals to use that TE is Brooklyn will want to stay under the tax to avoid repeater penalties and needs to pay Cam Johnson.  So proposals for Brooklyn to take on more money can use the TE, but need to contemplate the rest of their off-season and where it leaves them relative to the tax.

[DanSchwartzgan]

If all Phoenix does is keep their guys and fill the rest of the roster with minimums, they will be well over the 2nd apron. So, cutting salary while adding depth seems like their goal.  

Good insight.  Specifically they have $165mm tied up in seven players and only $15mm to build out the rest of the roster (including at least one starter).  Paul and Payne are partially guaranteed, but you absolutely have to replace them in any plan to not pay their guaranteed amount.  

I think the best Ayton trades probably include a third party.  THJ and stuff ends up in Phoenix.  Some additional salary ends up with the third team and somehow in all of this Phoenix needs to end up with a starting center.

[F Gump]

Good insight.  Specifically they have $165mm tied up in seven players and only $15mm to build out the rest of the roster (including at least one starter).  Paul and Payne are partially guaranteed, but you absolutely have to replace them in any plan to not pay their guaranteed amount. 

Something definitely has to change in PHX, you would think.

They have seemed to indicate they will keep Paul, and Payne is cheap enough that it seems unlikely they would waive him to save money (it would only give them $2.5M more in room against the 2nd apron to do so, which doesn't seem worth it for a guy who's giving about 1000 minutes of decent and fairly reliable backup play for only $6.5M).

But with what they have right now, they are already stuck, if they want to stay under apron 2, because the 7 players they have plus ALL minimums lands them over the apron with a 15 man roster. They could only have 14, and be about $1M under apron 2, but there's no flexibility at all.

I do wonder if they will simply bust the 2nd apron and bite the bullet. They need to re-sign some of their FAs to even have a rotation (Warren, Craig, Landale, Okogie, Biyombo might all be seen as way more preferable to them than min salary FAs).

Even if they do, it sure feels like they will feel compelled to slice a big chunk of salary somewhere, and Ayton sure makes the most sense.

But I'm not sure the Mavs work. PHX would be looking for a pile of immediate cap salary savings in such a deal, and Mavs don't seem to be that guy (unless Mavs could slice Ayton up into smaller chunks, then PHX finds a taker for one of those smaller pieces). Like the rest of you, I land at THJ, Bullock, McGee as the most I would want to offer, and am leery of the value for DAL in light of that big contract on a guy whose motor is questionable and is perhaps a bit of a dinosaur in today's game.

That deal lands DAL here:

C -  Ayton
PF - Kleber
SF - Green
SG - Luka, Hardy
PG - Kyrie
The rest = pick 10, MLE, BAE, and 6 minimums to fill a whole lot of holes. That assumes Kyrie at same salary as Luka, and s-w Bertans, and it leaves about 2M cap room under Apron 1.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I do wonder if they will simply bust the 2nd apron and bite the bullet.

PHX would be looking for a pile of immediate cap salary savings in such a deal, and Mavs don't seem to be that guy (unless Mavs could slice Ayton up into smaller chunks, then PHX finds a taker for one of those smaller pieces). Like the rest of you, I land at THJ, Bullock, McGee as the most I would want to offer

I think that first question is important, both for Phoenix and other trade targets.  Do they need to fix their cap sheet now or over the next 13 months?

I’ve presumed THJ to Phoenix based on the Asst. GM from Detroit moving to the Sun’s FO.  At least Phoenix has seen the McGee movie before and had some success with him getting minutes there.  But, THJ doesn’t really help their D or getting their cap under control a year from now.  Seems he should go elsewhere and bring back a cheaper option at starting center (but not too good an option or Dallas would just do that deal and keep the player). Is Reggie better for Phoenix as a player or a S/W at $1.8mm?

[DallasMaverick]

Had no idea Nico posted here

Just in case you were wondering, it's really hard to win:

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/nb...ship-bm07/

I keep thinking of all the general managers, owners, scouting staffs, and coaches spending hundreds of man-years trying to assemble rosters that could win a championship, and falling short.

It's hard.

Pretty cool how the Mavs won it in 2011, and came pretty close in 2006.

[Chicagojk]

On a separate note, I think we need to get passed that all our players suck. Are most lead guys? No. Are most probably peaked out? Yeah probably. Are most overpaid? Yes, probably several of them. But most are not trash- leaving out McGee & Bertans is obviously a sunk cost.

But we just finished a season where two former Mavs have had career years in Brunson and KP. While here in Dallas, most of the national media were saying this team built around Luka was trash. Both proved to be way better than most though--KP due to health and Brunson due to more responsibility. I had to listen to media members even late last year, question if Jalen was a good fit with Luka. Drove me crazy!

[ItsGoTime]

Have we had this discussion yet?

I think we have a glutton of guards that need PT next season, especially if we resign Kyrie. Now, mind you, Luka is a PG on offense but a SF/PF (and depending on the C he can guard there too) mostly on defense. 

Here are the current G’s we have and roughly the minutes they should get assuming progression from the youngsters:

Luka (36), Kyrie (32), Hardy (20), Green (28), THJ (28)

With a total of 96 minutes to be played at both G positions, that’s 48 minutes over without talking about a vet injury replacement PG role player (the role they tried to sell Dragic on, who would get roughly 8 mpg when not replacing an injured player to stay in touch with the team). I honestly think there’s a world where the minutes I put up for these players are higher because some of them play that well (including THJ, not just the young duo).

Some of those minutes can certainly come from the SF spot. Luka flexes in those bigger spots on defense, but I find it extremely unlikely that a playoff contender would have all the SF minutes going to Green/THJ. I think the FO has had this discussion and that is why THJ has been on the block (and I predict they will put him there again this offseason). 

I’ve heard the arguments that THJ has looked good after the Kyrie trade, and he has, but the fact of the matter is we have too many guards. To build this roster right, either Green or THJ has got to go. Green being the better defender and a versatile player on offense, he seems to be the right choice to keep. What if, however, someone values him tremendously and gives us an offer we can’t refuse? 

Does THJ then fill enough of the needs we have for that role? He is an improved defender, but is he a POA defender that that role really should fill? He doesn’t dribble well nor does he have the mentality to distribute well (yes, Green needs progression on that front too, with him though, he is still developing while THJ is what he is) either. 

Due to all this, I just think the fit with THJ for this team is off, no matter how you slice it. I think the FO sees it this way too. 

I really like the trade idea using him to get Brooks. I think he would fit well behind Bane and whatever SF they get this offseason to replace Brooks. Doesn’t have to be that specific trade (could be for Williams, although Bos has a glutton of G’s too), but I think the FO might go into KP mode with him this offseason if they can’t find a more favorable trade.

[mvossman]

Have we had this discussion yet?

I think we have a glutton of guards that need PT next season, especially if we resign Kyrie. Now, mind you, Luka is a PG on offense but a SF/PF (and depending on the C he can guard there too) mostly on defense. 

Here are the current G’s we have and roughly the minutes they should get assuming progression from the youngsters:

Luka (36), Kyrie (32), Hardy (20), Green (28), THJ (28)

With a total of 96 minutes to be played at both G positions, that’s 48 minutes over without talking about a vet injury replacement PG role player (the role they tried to sell Dragic on, who would get roughly 8 mpg when not replacing an injured player to stay in touch with the team). I honestly think there’s a world where the minutes I put up for these players are higher because some of them play that well (including THJ, not just the young duo).

Some of those minutes can certainly come from the SF spot. Luka flexes in those bigger spots on defense, but I find it extremely unlikely that a playoff contender would have all the SF minutes going to Green/THJ. I think the FO has had this discussion and that is why THJ has been on the block (and I predict they will put him there again this offseason). 

I’ve heard the arguments that THJ has looked good after the Kyrie trade, and he has, but the fact of the matter is we have too many guards. To build this roster right, either Green or THJ has got to go. Green being the better defender and a versatile player on offense, he seems to be the right choice to keep. What if, however, someone values him tremendously and gives us an offer we can’t refuse? 

Does THJ then fill enough of the needs we have for that role? He is an improved defender, but is he a POA defender that that role really should fill? He doesn’t dribble well nor does he have the mentality to distribute well (yes, Green needs progression on that front too, with him though, he is still developing while THJ is what he is) either. 

Due to all this, I just think the fit with THJ for this team is off, no matter how you slice it. I think the FO sees it this way too. 

I really like the trade idea using him to get Brooks. I think he would fit well behind Bane and whatever SF they get this offseason to replace Brooks. Doesn’t have to be that specific trade (could be for Williams, although Bos has a glutton of G’s too), but I think the FO might go into KP mode with him this offseason if they can’t find a more favorable trade.

From a roster construction standpoint I think the Center/Forward/Guard paradigm is more applicable to the defensive side of the ball, which makes Luka a forward.  If you take Luka's minutes away from the above list and realize Timmy can play some forward, you don't really have an issue.

I think this teams biggest issues are not that we have too many guards, but that we don't have a starting quality center, are short a starting quality forward, and only have 2 plus defenders on the team (Green and Maxi).  The goal should be to fill those holes and its very possible we use Timmy as trade fodder to do it, but I don't think its necessary.

[ItsGoTime]

and realize Timmy can play some forward, you don't really have an issue.

It’s not some, it’s most if not all of his minutes. That is, if the minutes I laid out are real (which might be low for Kyrie at the very least). That was pretty much the whole point of the post. I don’t think THJ at fowrard is a winning recipe, and I think the FO agrees.

[ItsGoTime]

I mostly threw in numbers for the minutes on the players. I’ll do a full eval now. Minutes from last year:
Kyrie - 38 as a Mav, 37 at Bkn - Chances that number goes down as drastically as 32 per game? Not likely. Let’s say 36 and 38-40 for the playoffs.

Hardy - 15 - if he takes the believable step up that is hoped for, that number goes up. Minimum 20. His minutes might get a squeeze come playoff time though.

Green - 26 - if he also takes another believable step up and becomes a starter (and main POA defender), that number goes up too. Minimum 28, but likely 30-32.

THJ - 30 - 28-30 is about right for who he is.

The other thing to talk about is the POA defender. If THJ is in the game, who is the ball handler that accompanies him (and honestly, there should be 2 ball handlers on the court at all times since we now seemingly have enough to do so)? Certainly not Green. That means, unless a person wants 1 of THJ, Kyrie or Hardy to be the POA defender, it has to come from the forward spot, which means THJ and that forward switch defensive positions (making THJ always a forward on defense).

[ItsGoTime]

The only combination that THJ could work out as a guard in is with Luka/Green/THJ on the floor. I don’t think that trio will get much time considering the mins the other 2 need to play.

[mvossman]

I mostly threw in numbers for the minutes on the players. I’ll do a full eval now. Minutes from last year:
Kyrie - 38 as a Mav, 37 at Bkn - Chances that number goes down as drastically as 32 per game? Not likely. Let’s say 36 and 38-40 for the playoffs.

Hardy - 15 - if he takes the believable step up that is hoped for, that number goes up. Minimum 20. His minutes might get a squeeze come playoff time though.

Green - 26 - if he also takes another believable step up and becomes a starter (and main POA defender), that number goes up too. Minimum 28, but likely 30-32.

THJ - 30 - 28-30 is about right for who he is.

The other thing to talk about is the POA defender. If THJ is in the game, who is the ball handler that accompanies him (and honestly, there should be 2 ball handlers on the court at all times since we now seemingly have enough to do so)? Certainly not Green. That means, unless a person wants 1 of THJ, Kyrie or Hardy to be the POA defender, it has to come from the forward spot, which means THJ and that forward switch defensive positions (making THJ always a forward on defense).

Hardy played 15 minutes a game but a lot of that was garbage time and he had a lot of DNPs.  Him getting 15 regular minutes a game would be a big uptick from what he did his rookie year.  Even with bumps in minutes for Kyrie and Green, you still have Timmy playing half his time at guard.

POA defender is another legit need on the team.  If we manage to acquire a rotational point of attack defender in addition to a starting center and forward, then I agree that there is little room for Timmy.  Its also hard to imagine we would add that many players without sending Tim's salary out.