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[DanSchwartzgan]

I have to say that the past month might be my most depressing time as a Mavs fan, and I've been on board since the summer of '95. Just seeing the abject fail in losing Brunson for nothing, with no proximate pathways of improvement,  I'm just not seeing much reason to hope.  

Hard to believe it's come to this point just a couple of months after the high of making the WCFs. 

Of course, the probable second-most depressing and bleak-seeming time was probably the few days between Nellie Sr. nuking what was left of the three J's and his miraculously convincing Finley to extend rather than walking. Unfortunately, Nellie is on a beach in Maui and not here.

I would have said Nash leaving for nothing over the three-J's.  Ironically, the Nash episode feels a lot like the Brunson departure in many ways.  Interestingly, the team recovered from that fairly nicely and did so without adding any superstar talent in the years immediately following.  The last year of Nash was also the Walker/Jamison year.   The players outside of Dirk who played 1,000 minutes that season were A. Walker, Finley, Nash, Jamison, Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels.

A bit simplified, but the 1,000 minute club lost Nash, Walker and Jamison and added Terry, Stack, Dampier, Alan Henderson and rookie Devin Harris.  So, Nash for air.  Black hole no-defense Walker for a player with the same reputation at the time who was six inches shorter.  Jamison became Stackhouse (who just turned 30 and only played 27 games the season before being traded) and a rookie named Harris.  We added Dampier through a S&T giving up a future first.  Of course, we won 58 games the next season losing in the second round and made it to the NBA finals winning 60 games the next season.  The only real additions in 05/06 were Diop and Adrian Griffin.  Guys like that are available in free agency every year.

There was nothing herculean about the moves going into 04/05 or 05/06 that can't be replicated by this team.  They turned a 52 win team that lost its second best player for nothing into a finalist in two years.  I have no idea if Christian Wood is Jamison or Terry in this scenario.  Time will tell, but while some expect his game to decline on a better team, I expect improvement.  He'll have more space and the incredible gravity Luka provides.  I think the O will come much easier.  I think Dinwiddie this year will be better than Dinwiddie last year if for no other reasons than familiarity with the system and being further removed from his surgery.  Remember all those easy scores inside and the missed rebounds when Powell was in the game.  Those won't look at all the same in McGee's limited minutes.  The last time we saw Tim Hardaway in a playoff series he averaged 17 points in 37 minutes on 40% shooting from the arc.  So, I reject the concept that we don't have a path to improvement.  We are less than a year away from being able to deal 24, 26, 28 and pick swaps and we have all sorts of contracts with which to match salary.

[F Gump]

Losing Brunson was a big mistake. Past big mistakes also happened. Got it. I cared when they happened, and yes Cuban's track record in running a franchise is appalling, but he's going nowhere. So now where are we?

The biggest issue for me is NOW< and any objective observer sees an "incomplete" roster with MASSIVE holes. Those flow from the fact that they have done zip on 2 of their 3 summer priorities. Bring Brunson back (nope) and land a 3rd 2-way wing to complement DFS /Bullock (another nope). They did address the need to be better in the middle (McGee and Wood).

But without the 3rd Creator (who was going to be Brunson) and the 3rd wing (who was probably going to have to be landed by trade), the problem of being too thin is still there. ADDING 2 playoff-playable guys was the focus this summer, and with Wood added and Brunson subtracted, they are just where they were before. 

I don't see any activity, any hint of activity, or even something we can creatively conjure up as a roster-finishing target, and I don't think anyone else does either. Or am I missing something?Media says they surely MUST have something up their sleeve, but I'm just not buying. NBA teams do their important roster-building business right up front, in early July. If the task wasn't so incredibly undone, imo we'd admit the feast is over and it's time to go home. Even if we're still hungry.

I don't see a potential solution other than "14 man roster, cycle in prospects, hope we find something as we go along" (aka the cheap owner's way to reduce tax).

DanS, am I missing anything?

Kamm, are you still convinced my head is up my butt for concluding long ago that there's no secret big move in the works? Was I right in deciding The August Move is just a fantasy?

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
The biggest issue for me is NOW< and any objective observer sees an "incomplete" roster with MASSIVE holes.  

But without the 3rd Creator (who was going to be Brunson) and the 3rd wing (who was probably going to have to be landed by trade), the problem of being too thin is still there. ADDING 2 playoff-playable guys was the focus this summer, and with Wood added and Brunson subtracted, they are just where they were before. 

DanS, am I missing anything?

 

I don't think anyone is saying the team didn't blow some (several) opportunities in the recent past.  I also haven't seen anyone say we don't have holes (or at least a hole).  But we had the same wing hole while playing in the WCF's.  If Wood added and Brunson subtracted is truly "just where they were before", then you are missing the improvement of McGee over Powell and the return of Hardaway compared to what we had in the playoffs.  Those aren't insignificant.  

I think the biggest difference is I'm not willing to blast their inactivity on the 15th slot on August 3rd.  There is time.  I personally don't see the wing hole when the roster has Bullock, THJ, Dinwiddie for some of his minutes and presumably a youngster like Green eating up all of the two/three minutes.  DFS may even get some minutes at the three.  It might be accurate to say we'd prefer a different wing, but probably no room for another wing.  The hole is third PG.  Our first two combine to be arguably the best PG combo in the league.  I bet we can find someone to fill the third spot.

[Hypermav]

https://twitter.com/harris_stavrou/status/1554858737126481923?s=20&t=yeSZMqcGthlMEloQ5FL83Q

[Scott41theMavs]

Losing Brunson was a big mistake. Past big mistakes also happened. Got it. I cared when they happened, and yes Cuban's track record in running a franchise is appalling, but he's going nowhere. So now where are we?

The biggest issue for me is NOW< and any objective observer sees an "incomplete" roster with MASSIVE holes. Those flow from the fact that they have done zip on 2 of their 3 summer priorities. Bring Brunson back (nope) and land a 3rd 2-way wing to complement DFS /Bullock (another nope). They did address the need to be better in the middle (McGee and Wood).

But without the 3rd Creator (who was going to be Brunson) and the 3rd wing (who was probably going to have to be landed by trade), the problem of being too thin is still there. ADDING 2 playoff-playable guys was the focus this summer, and with Wood added and Brunson subtracted, they are just where they were before. 

I don't see any activity, any hint of activity, or even something we can creatively conjure up as a roster-finishing target, and I don't think anyone else does either. Or am I missing something?Media says they surely MUST have something up their sleeve, but I'm just not buying. NBA teams do their important roster-building business right up front, in early July. If the task wasn't so incredibly undone, imo we'd admit the feast is over and it's time to go home. Even if we're still hungry.

I don't see a potential solution other than "14 man roster, cycle in prospects, hope we find something as we go along" (aka the cheap owner's way to reduce tax).

DanS, am I missing anything?

Kamm, are you still convinced my head is up my butt for concluding long ago that there's no secret big move in the works? Was I right in deciding The August Move is just a fantasy?

Dan's post filled me with a brief breath of optimism, then this very realistic and well-stated post brought me back to reality. 

The lack of the third creator - which essentially ***made*** our season last year when Dinwiddie was acquired - is many times huger than Dan is making it out to be. It has to be addressed by a fairly major move, which I would bet they're afraid to do because it will essentially cancel the "big trade" they are hoping for in a year or two.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

I don’t see the wing issue as being as huge a deal because I think we HAVE to see what we have in Josh Green. I agree with those that have said that ideally we would have another 3/4 wing and not 2/3 type like Green (though I think as he gets stronger Green will eventually be able to guard 1-4). I also agree McGee will help shore up the middle. And the lack of a 3rd creator is a glaring hole that almost can’t be ignored if we are going to contend. If for no other reason than that we can’t keep running Luka into the ground; or Din for that matter.

[mvossman]

Dan's post filled me with a brief breath of optimism, then this very realistic and well-stated post brought me back to reality. 

The lack of the third creator - which essentially ***made*** our season last year when Dinwiddie was acquired - is many times huger than Dan is making it out to be. It has to be addressed by a fairly major move, which I would bet they're afraid to do because it will essentially cancel the "big trade" they are hoping for in a year or two.

When using the term "creator" I think more in terms of creating your own shot.  That is by far the most valuable thing we lost from Brunson, was his ability to create his own shot.  We are making up some or all of that between Wood (who can create his own shot) and Timmy (who can create for himself a little bit).  What we are missing is a 3rd playmaker, which is honestly a lot easier to replace than offensive creation.  What has been frustrating so far is our lack of filling that role.  And it seems to be a pattern because we walked into last season with Burke being our 3rd playmaker.

[F Gump]

I don't think anyone is saying the team didn't blow some (several) opportunities in the recent past.  I also haven't seen anyone say we don't have holes (or at least a hole).  But we had the same wing hole while playing in the WCF's.  If Wood added and Brunson subtracted is truly "just where they were before", then you are missing the improvement of McGee over Powell and the return of Hardaway compared to what we had in the playoffs.  Those aren't insignificant.  

I think the biggest difference is I'm not willing to blast their inactivity on the 15th slot on August 3rd.  There is time.  I personally don't see the wing hole when the roster has Bullock, THJ, Dinwiddie for some of his minutes and presumably a youngster like Green eating up all of the two/three minutes.  DFS may even get some minutes at the three.  It might be accurate to say we'd prefer a different wing, but probably no room for another wing.  The hole is third PG.  Our first two combine to be arguably the best PG combo in the league.  I bet we can find someone to fill the third spot.

Good rational viewpoint. "It's only Aug 3" is a fair reply, but only IF you can see some routes still available out there to fill the gaping hole at 3rd Creator. Can you? I can't.

They had 3 things to do.

1 Upgrade the middle. In so doing, add one playoff-playable core player.
FIXED, it appears. (Note: Wood-McGee add up to 1 core addition, since they split one position).

2 Add a 2-way playoff-playable wing to rotate with DFS/Bullock. In so doing, add one playoff-playable core player.  DID NOTHING. HOPING TO GET LUCKY BY TURNING SOME OF LAST YEARS LEFTOVERS INTO WHAT THEY NEED. But nothing has been accomplished here so far.
..... THJ can fill minutes, but there is no world in which you want THJ to be doing what DFS/Bullock have been doing, especially in the playoffs. Now maybe you think THJ can be traded to get that guy, but if that's the plan, there's no indication they have found that trade partner, if one exists.The 3rd guy is still missing.
..... Green might improve enough to become  the 3rd guy in time. Perhaps. He has to become more aggressive on offense, and it remains to be seen if he can make that step. But so far, he's definitely not the 3rd guy. And c'mon, Dinwiddie is neither a 2-way wing, nor does he have any spare minutes to offer elsewhere.
 
3 Sign Brunson (nope) or replace him, even with a slightly lesser version (nope). BIG STEP BACKWARDS. LOSS OF A CORE PLAYOFF-PLAYABLE producer. The 2-at-a-time creators unleashed Luka to be off the ball at will, which changed the Mavs' whole dynamic.
..... Now there is NO ONE to be backup for TWO core players every game. This is not the ho-hum you paint it as.  
..... The Dragic negotiation by Mavs makes even less sense now than it did back in July, in light of their total failure to have anything else lined up. THEY NOW HAVE A GAPING HOLE HERE.

In total, there's a +1, a 0 (with dreams it later becomes a +1), and a -1. The need was to be +2 and so far, it's +0 when added together.

[DanSchwartzgan]

In total, there's a +1, a 0 (with dreams it later becomes a +1), and a -1. The need was to be +2 and so far, it's +0 when added together.

Seems a bit arbitrary.  But it is your post, so you are allowed to set your requirements and your scale.  Given the minutes crunch (something you talk about a lot) at whatever you want to call the position that isn't a big and isn't a ball handler, another player never seemed like a realistic requirement.  Where were the minutes going to come from with Hardaway returning.  

EVERYONE AGREES there is a need for a backup ball handler.

Here is how I would look at it.  In the playoffs we had four players available to us (plus a fraction of Powell) who had had an EPM in the 80th percentile or above within the last three seasons played.  

Luka 96 97 97 
DFS 87 82 82 
SD 74 88 71 
Brunson 85 67 63
Powell 81 72 84.  

If you average the three years you get 97, 84, 78, 72 and part of a player at 79.

We've since added the following compared to the team that ended the playoff run 

McGee 86 83 89 (Avg 86)
Wood 75 92 96 (Avg 88) 
THJ 65 74 87 (Avg 75).  

Using the averages, here is old vs. new:

          Old          New
Luka    97           97
DFS     84           84
SD      78           78
JB       72           75 (THJ)
DP      79            86 (McGee)
Wood                 88

That is at least one addition (and Wood at 88 is a significant addition).  McGee improves Powell in the desperately needed areas of shot blocking and rebounding without giving up his ability to rim run.  Hardaway doesn't replace Brunson's role, but he does replace his points compared to the playoff team.  

The next addition doesn't have to replace Brunson.  He has to replace the ball handling role Dinwiddie played.  But, all he has to do to further improve our playoff team is be better than Green-ikina.  I think we are one deal for someone like Kemba, Beverley, Bledsoe or Rose from being significantly better even after losing Brunson for nothing.  I personally think this thing can carry all the way to the TDL if need be.  We will find that player. 

Let's keep the main thing the main thing.  The question isn't whether the FO screwed the pooch.  The question is whether we are better than the team that lost to GS in the conference finals.  I think we have more talent than that team.  I think to fully utilize that talent we need another body.  It is only August 4th.  If we are still having this conversation in late February, then I'll join the chorus.

[Chicagojk]

The Mavs need to hope THJ fills a role effectively.   They also have to hope for internal development (either Josh or Frank).

I think ideally they would prefer a guy like Crowder and a guard like Rose to fill out the roster over THJ and others.   It is what it is though.   Hardaway may not provide the defense they prefer, but hopefully he is better (average would be fine) while supplanting that with a guy who can get you 30 in some games.   This upcoming year will be really important for Josh's development.  

I think long term, you would really love to combine the Crowder player type with the Rose player type.  This won't happen, but man would Paul George look great in that spot.   Move Bullock to the bench and have three wing bulldogs who cause all sorts of problems on defense while having one (George) who can handle the ball and run pick and rolls.   So maybe look for  player a tier below George to target over the next 18 months.

[mvossman]

Seems a bit arbitrary.  But it is your post, so you are allowed to set your requirements and your scale.  Given the minutes crunch (something you talk about a lot) at whatever you want to call the position that isn't a big and isn't a ball handler, another player never seemed like a realistic requirement.  Where were the minutes going to come from with Hardaway returning.  

EVERYONE AGREES there is a need for a backup ball handler.

Here is how I would look at it.  In the playoffs we had four players available to us (plus a fraction of Powell) who had had an EPM in the 80th percentile or above within the last three seasons played.  

Luka 96 97 97 
DFS 87 82 82 
SD 74 88 71 
Brunson 85 67 63
Powell 81 72 84.  

If you average the three years you get 97, 84, 78, 72 and part of a player at 79.

We've since added the following compared to the team that ended the playoff run 

McGee 86 83 89 (Avg 86)
Wood 75 92 96 (Avg 88) 
THJ 65 74 87 (Avg 75).  

Using the averages, here is old vs. new:

          Old          New
Luka    97           97
DFS     84           84
SD      78           78
JB       72           75 (THJ)
DP      79            86 (McGee)
Wood                 88

That is at least one addition (and Wood at 88 is a significant addition).  McGee improves Powell in the desperately needed areas of shot blocking and rebounding without giving up his ability to rim run.  Hardaway doesn't replace Brunson's role, but he does replace his points compared to the playoff team.  

The next addition doesn't have to replace Brunson.  He has to replace the ball handling role Dinwiddie played.  But, all he has to do to further improve our playoff team is be better than Green-ikina.  I think we are one deal for someone like Kemba, Beverley, Bledsoe or Rose from being significantly better even after losing Brunson for nothing.  I personally think this thing can carry all the way to the TDL if need be.  We will find that player. 

Let's keep the main thing the main thing.  The question isn't whether the FO screwed the pooch.  The question is whether we are better than the team that lost to GS in the conference finals.  I think we have more talent than that team.  I think to fully utilize that talent we need another body.  It is only August 4th.  If we are still having this conversation in late February, then I'll join the chorus.

I have a couple of concerns with this kind of methodology.  I think you need to be careful using regular season performance (EPM) to predict playoff performance.  Powell had a much higher EPM the last three seasons than Bullock did, but there is no question who was more valuable in the playoffs and who we all expect will be more valuable in future playoffs.  We have a good idea what we were getting with Brunson, but no clue on Wood.  Also, while McGee playoff numbers are decent, his minutes were low and diminished as time went (a pattern repeated in multiple years).

I also think we need to be careful about projecting Wood EPM on a tanking team to this team.  I think there are a wide range of possibilities regarding his performance on this team.  And chemistry is important regardless of EPM.  We had a good recent example of this with KP.  He has a higher EPM than anybody else on this team except for Luka, but a lot of folks think we got better when we traded him away.  I hope Wood does not become another KP, but its a possibility.

I'm not ready to say this team is better or even as good as last season because Wood is such a wildcard.

[mvossman]

Good rational viewpoint. "It's only Aug 3" is a fair reply, but only IF you can see some routes still available out there to fill the gaping hole at 3rd Creator. Can you? I can't.

They had 3 things to do.

1 Upgrade the middle. In so doing, add one playoff-playable core player.
FIXED, it appears. (Note: Wood-McGee add up to 1 core addition, since they split one position).

2 Add a 2-way playoff-playable wing to rotate with DFS/Bullock. In so doing, add one playoff-playable core player.  DID NOTHING. HOPING TO GET LUCKY BY TURNING SOME OF LAST YEARS LEFTOVERS INTO WHAT THEY NEED. But nothing has been accomplished here so far.
..... THJ can fill minutes, but there is no world in which you want THJ to be doing what DFS/Bullock have been doing, especially in the playoffs. Now maybe you think THJ can be traded to get that guy, but if that's the plan, there's no indication they have found that trade partner, if one exists.The 3rd guy is still missing.
..... Green might improve enough to become  the 3rd guy in time. Perhaps. He has to become more aggressive on offense, and it remains to be seen if he can make that step. But so far, he's definitely not the 3rd guy. And c'mon, Dinwiddie is neither a 2-way wing, nor does he have any spare minutes to offer elsewhere.
 
3 Sign Brunson (nope) or replace him, even with a slightly lesser version (nope). BIG STEP BACKWARDS. LOSS OF A CORE PLAYOFF-PLAYABLE producer. The 2-at-a-time creators unleashed Luka to be off the ball at will, which changed the Mavs' whole dynamic.
..... Now there is NO ONE to be backup for TWO core players every game. This is not the ho-hum you paint it as.  
..... The Dragic negotiation by Mavs makes even less sense now than it did back in July, in light of their total failure to have anything else lined up. THEY NOW HAVE A GAPING HOLE HERE.

In total, there's a +1, a 0 (with dreams it later becomes a +1), and a -1. The need was to be +2 and so far, it's +0 when added together.

I'm going to put a little different spin on this.  As frustrated as I am about how this offseason played out after the Wood trade, I think the above can be looked at a little differently.

I don't think they view McGee and Wood occupying the same space.  I think they are looking at Wood as primarily a 4 and an occasional small ball 5.  I think the 5 rotation is McGee/Maxi/Wood/Powell and the 4 rotation is Dorian/Wood/Bertans.  I think the mindset is that we improved both the 5 and 4 spot, and by pushing Dorian down to the 3 more often we improved that spot as well.

We did not add another 3&D player to support Dorian/Bullock.  What we did do was increase the size and length of the team on the court.  We are replacing Brunson/Powell with Wood/McGee.  This will be a very long team on the court.  

I don't really understand the Dragic fumble.  He seems like the perfect fit on this team.  At this point I hope they sign Bledsoe.

[ItsGoTime]

I don't really understand the Dragic fumble.  He seems like the perfect fit on this team.  At this point I hope they sign Bledsoe.

Me neither, especially since he said he was looking for 20-25 mpg spot on a team. The only sense to make of it now that we’re past most “plans” for the offseason is that they believe we have what we need to cover for that spot on the roster already. I think if nothing else, we’ll see what the 2 youngsters have to give. If neither takes the step forward that is acceptable for Kidd to trust them we’ll see a move soon after that is determined.

[Chicagojk]

I don't really understand the Dragic fumble.  He seems like the perfect fit on this team.  At this point I hope they sign Bledsoe.

It is a weird miss.   Especially considering the team he signed with and their current logjam at guard.   I have trouble seeing 20-25 minutes for him in Chicago.  I thought he was a good fit here due to his familiarity with Luka.  I do believe there are similar rated players out there to him at his stage of his career.

I hope this wasn't another Mavs blunder.   Hopefully they were brutally honest with him.   In that they told him his role was going to be limited.    He would get a lot of minutes in case of injury or foul trouble to Luka or Din.  Otherwise, Green and Frank would get developmental minutes early in the season.   We all agree they will eventually need at least one more creator, but maybe they are looking for a Burke role to start the season and then look for a bigger move when bad teams prove to be bad and players are more available.   Who knows though.

[Chicagojk]

The Mavs need to hope THJ fills a role effectively.   They also have to hope for internal development (either Josh or Frank).

I think ideally they would prefer a guy like Crowder and a guard like Rose to fill out the roster over THJ and others.   It is what it is though.   Hardaway may not provide the defense they prefer, but hopefully he is better (average would be fine) while supplanting that with a guy who can get you 30 in some games.   This upcoming year will be really important for Josh's development.  

I think long term, you would really love to combine the Crowder player type with the Rose player type.  This won't happen, but man would Paul George look great in that spot.   Move Bullock to the bench and have three wing bulldogs who cause all sorts of problems on defense while having one (George) who can handle the ball and run pick and rolls.   So maybe look for  player a tier below George to target over the next 18 months.

 speaking of my Crowder mention.....Not a ton there.   Sort of like the SI Dallas guys, but it is interesting how a lot of Suns fans don't expect him back this upcoming season. 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/n...229109002/

[mvossman]

Me neither, especially since he said he was looking for 20-25 mpg spot on a team. The only sense to make of it now that we’re past most “plans” for the offseason is that they believe we have what we need to cover for that spot on the roster already. I think if nothing else, we’ll see what the 2 youngsters have to give. If neither takes the step forward that is acceptable for Kidd to trust them we’ll see a move soon after that is determined.

This is what really concerns me.  I think Frank and Green are potential 3&D guys that can pass well enough to play within the flow of the offense.  I feel like asking either of them to run the team (something that Frank has been failing his entire career) is setting them up for failure.  Even worse would be the thought that Hardy can handle that role.  His Summer League performance should make it clear he has a long way to go.

[ItsGoTime]

This is what really concerns me.  I think Frank and Green are potential 3&D guys that can pass well enough to play within the flow of the offense.  I feel like asking either of them to run the team (something that Frank has been failing his entire career) is setting them up for failure.  Even worse would be the thought that Hardy can handle that role.  His Summer League performance should make it clear he has a long way to go.

It doesn’t really concern me until I see what they’re trying to do on the court. I usually don’t eval til at least 20-30 games in. That, to me is enough time to see if improvement happens or if there is a fully different gameplan that incorporates what this team can do together. I really hope we go away from the my turn, your turn offense that was so freakin boring and predictable last season.

[mvossman]

It doesn’t really concern me until I see what they’re trying to do on the court. I usually don’t eval til at least 20-30 games in. That, to me is enough time to see if improvement happens or if there is a fully different gameplan that incorporates what this team can do together. I really hope we go away from the my turn, your turn offense that was so freakin boring and predictable last season.

That's fair.  But I'm going to bitch and complain now.  It would be different if I thought they had a plan in place, but they did this very exact thing last offseason.  Stated their biggest need as a playmaker with size and then got nobody (unless you count Frank, which I don't from a playmaking standpoint).  It was clear all season that they needed somebody else who could pass the ball, and then they gashed the frontcourt to get it.  Now our top priority is to re-sign Brunson and he walks with no viable replacement.  Kidd has done wonders with what he has been handed, but it would be nice to see what he could do with an actual balanced roster.

[Kammrath]

Kamm, are you still convinced my head is up my butt for concluding long ago that there's no secret big move in the works? Was I right in deciding The August Move is just a fantasy?

1) I never said nor implied your "head is up your butt."

2) I still believe the Mavs potentially have something they want to do. The only thing that would change that is KD and DM being dealt and then the Mavs doing nothing in the next couple weeks after that.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/JonahJavad/status/15...5773954048