2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]

[sterlingmallory]

https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/1530274805210939393?s=20&t=SOCCXbp-P9ERRtUIWZHmpw

Does anyone subscribe to Stein's substack?

[F Gump]

Couldn´t Bamba theoretically sign his QO and simply agree to a trade?

Obviously you have the problem of re-signing him next summer, but such a scenario is at least in play. It helps Bamba get to a team that will give him minutes and Orlando can extract some value instead of losing him for nothing.

I have a hard time seeing another team offering him more than the MLE and his QO is $10.1M, which does fit into our TPE.

That scenario won't work for at least 2 reasons.
1 The TPE expires before free agency begins, and
2 When a player signs a QO (or signs any new deal), they can't be traded until Dec 15 or later (with some minor exceptions that don't apply here)

[mvossman]

I may not have made the caveat clear enough when I called it "theory craft". Completely recognize in reality a S&T is highly unlikely and hard to make profitable for the Mavs. We're locked into signing him, assuming he's interested, because any other outcome is much, much worse from a talent perspective. Agreed!

Looking at RAPTOR for the full season, DFS is #89 by net and Brunson is #62. WAR ranking is a bit higher for both, although still in Brunson's favor. IIRC that's a counting stat that tilts the direction of players who are available (and both played the higher end of average minutes in the league). Brunson is the #18 playoff scorer by average; he's probably much higher in total points but again, counting stats tilt towards those with more appearances. Fair point though, I probably should have both Brunson and DFS in the same category - likely both starter-ish for me.

More generally, I think he's not the ideal fit to maximize Luka in the playoffs. He plays a very similar iso-heavy game (which I think limits both his additive qualities and the diversity of our offense, meaning schemes that shut down one are likely effective against the other) and he's a slight negative on the defensive end (where I think we need more length and athleticism because Luka will probably top out at neutral on that end).

We're likely going to see Brunson for the next few years so I'm rooting for him, but again in "theory craft" land - I want someone who's more like a +1 OFF, +1 DEF player next to Luka than a +2.5 OFF, -.5 DEF Brunson. That's not to say Brunson isn't talented, but wherever possible I'm solving for synergy with our superstar when it comes to playoffs. That's about the only way to make a Luka + "role players" work at a championship level.

I prefer EPM to Raptor, but the numbers are similar.  Net needs to be taken with a grain of salt because there are some specialty guys in there that play less than 20 minutes a game.  There are also some folks that played a very small part of the season.  Also, playing high minutes in a game is a very important skill and should be part of the equation.  Being able to play most games is also a very important skill, a lesson we learned with the KP debacle.  Overall they are both easily top 75 players and probably closer to 50.  That is not "start-ish",  that is legit playoff starter without any qualification.

As to long term, I totally agree that a two way player would be a better fit with Luka, and eventually it may make the most sense to leverage Brunson to get that player.  But there are three other players on the court.  I think you can get away with Luka and Brunson with 3 plus defenders on the court.  It does make other things more difficult.  I think the defense suffers significantly if you put another minus defender with them (like Timmy).  That means you have to focus on defensive players, which is what tends to lead to having too many players on the court that can only shoot open 3s.  

In the short term, it doesn't really matter as we will be way better off asset wise to sign him then let him walk or get forced into a crappy S&T.

[F Gump]

"Would you take Powell, Brown, and a 1st [for Myles Turner]"

Can’t imagine they would.  

That was simply a "counter-offer" reply to someone proposing a different deal for Turner.

FWIW, I ran that trade in ESPN trade machine, and it says INDY is the big winner in that deal, even without the pick. I found that interesting.

[mvossman]

That was simply a "counter-offer" reply to someone proposing a different deal for Turner.

FWIW, I ran that trade in ESPN trade machine, and it says INDY is the big winner in that deal, even without the pick. I found that interesting.

That is strong clue that the trade machine analyzer sucks.

[VintagePejav2]

Stein says the Mavs are interested in Zach LaVine. As unlikely as such a pursuit is to succeed, what financial maneuvering is required to even make it possible?

[F Gump]

Stein says the Mavs are interested in Zach LaVine. As unlikely as such a pursuit is to succeed, what financial maneuvering is required to even make it possible?

To sign ZL this summer, the cost of doing all it takes to clear salary plus trade for him would be impractical, and to sign him outright gets even worse.

So the most likely avenue I see (although still one I don't see as all that likely) is this one:

1 Mavs sign Brunson for whatever it takes.
2 Bulls sign ZL for whatever it takes.
3 In 6 months, teams swap those 2 players which better fill their needs.

[sefant]

What happens if Lavine telling the Bulls he wants to leave, and give the Bulls a list with Lakers and Mavs on.

SD + THJ + 1st beats any Lakers offer with Westbrick.

[Chicagojk]

I am a few weeks behind on my podcasts.  I was listening to a Zach Lowe podcast where he had a quick mention that he would not be surprised if the Bulls sniffed around on a Vucevic deal.  I have no idea what that means.  Is that just to get,off that contract getting a small asset back or a part of a bigger deal?

Vucevic wasn’t great for the Bulls this year and I have personally never been a fan.  He is probably not best suited for the fast pace the Bulls like to play at.  If Dallas wants to continue to play slow, wouldn’t he work well here?  Defense would be the major question mark.  But he could probably be our second best scorer, has always been a good rebounder, is a threat from 3 if left  alone and while he is not a rim runner he has really nice touch inside.  If you kept Maxi, he could be insurance for late in games as your defensive center.  Just a thought.

[ThisIStheYear]

I’m good with running it back but with a big center upgrade. The Mavs would have been in a toss up series against Golden State had they a counter to Green/Looney.   Luka is a 1. Jalen is a legit #3. I think the DFS/Reggie combo is really good too with defense, length, and shooting. The Mavs have some decent depth with a third ball handler/attacker and a stretch big off the bench.  Just add a mobile, just below all star caliber rebounding and paint protecting center and maybe a third man for the DFS/Reggie combo and this team will be ready to roll.

[Dirknows]

I am a few weeks behind on my podcasts.  I was listening to a Zach Lowe podcast where he had a quick mention that he would not be surprised if the Bulls sniffed around on a Vucevic deal.  I have no idea what that means.  Is that just to get,off that contract getting a small asset back or a part of a bigger deal?

Vucevic wasn’t great for the Bulls this year and I have personally never been a fan.  He is probably not best suited for the fast pace the Bulls like to play at.  If Dallas wants to continue to play slow, wouldn’t he work well here?  Defense would be the major question mark.  But he could probably be our second best scorer, has always been a good rebounder, is a threat from 3 if left  alone and while he is not a rim runner he has really nice touch inside.  If you kept Maxi, he could be insurance for late in games as your defensive center.  Just a thought.

 
Living in Chicago, Bulls fans would be willing to give Vucevic away at this point due to his defense being so horrible.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/NickVanExit/status/1...0400156679

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/...5210939393

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/_TradeDeadline/statu...6487768064

[sefant]

Can someone explain why the Bulls were so horrible with Lavine on the floor?

They were a total of -27 on the season with Lavine on the floor. What the hell? Thats lottery level.


Brunson was at +237 ...

[Kammrath]

Can someone explain why the Bulls were so horrible with Lavine on the floor?

Because he is not that good?

Caruso and Ball were definitely better options for team winning....especially defense. 

I have never thought LaVine has had a "winning impact"...at least not a significant one and not one worthy of his contract.

[F Gump]

My summer wish list, at least the theoretical version is summarized in the following.

ESPN - ""They're one player away," an Eastern Conference executive told ESPN, suggesting the Mavs could win a title as soon as next season if they figured out a way to add an impact center -- in the mold of 2010-11 Tyson Chandler -- who could be a primary Doncic pick-and-roll partner, rebounder and rim protector. It's an opinion shared by several other rival coaches, scouts and executives who have recently discussed Dallas' outlook with ESPN. Cuban also believes this kind of roster construction -- with some upgrades -- can set the Mavs up to be long-term contenders."

I don't know if there's another "Tyson Chandler" out there these days, much less one who is available, but would love to have that on this team. He did all the good things Powell does - sets great screens, great roll man, plays above the rim, adds energy - while also giving them the much-needed things Powell woefully lacks (rebounding, rim protection, and defense).

[Branduil]

I imagine the Mavs know they can't realistically sign Lavine this season. I think this is about relationship building. "Hey Zach, we'd love to have you here. In fact, we've already thought about how you can elevate us to the next level by doing ____ in our offense. We can't sign you now, but if you still want to be here in a couple of years..."

This is where Nico's talents come into play.

[Jason Terry]

I don't think there is that big a difference between 4th and 7th best on this team.  I see the following tiers:

Superstar: Luka
Playoff starter:  Brunson, Dorian
Playoff rotation:  Dinwiddie, Bullock, Maxi, THJ
Regular depth:  Powell, Bertans, Green, Frank

We don't have the assets to go after a playoff starter level player unless we trade for an over priced one like Tobias or Hayward

But I think we could find a center that falls into that rotation category.  Between the pick, the TPE and multiple expiring contracts somebody like Holmes should be getable.  I would prefer not to spend the pick to get that player, but we have to make that call before we know what might be available on the tax MLE market.

Also notice that I have 7 guys in the top three tiers.  If we don't send THJ our in a trade, he would provide much needed depth at the wing.  That plus a functional starting center would go a long way and you have your 8 guys.

I feel like we keep forgetting that we have a core 7.  Timmy was a key piece in the playoffs last two years.  There were struggles early this season, but I feel like Kidd would have figured out how to make it work.  He is the piece we would be most willing to send out in a trade due to fit concerns, but if we don't send him out

I think you’re right on the money. Hardaway is our offseason acquisition at wing depth/bench scorer. He will play off the bench and he will play defense or he won’t be here at the trade deadline……..seeing as how he’s so close with the team and such a hard worker i think he will come back with renewed sense of urgency following missing out on our playoff run

[IamDougieFresh]

Because he is not that good?

Caruso and Ball were definitely better options for team winning....especially defense. 

I have never thought LaVine has had a "winning impact"...at least not a significant one and not one worthy of his contract.

Are you the guy in charge of the simulation? Seems as though you have access to my thoughts and attempting to troll me by posting the opposite of what I think. I’m on to you.